Archives par mot-clé : Storms

2017 Accumulated Cyclone Energy

by Dr. Ryan N. Maue, May 01, 1017

Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE.

Global Warming and Hurricanes – NOAA says no measurable effect yet

by Anthony  Watts, April 5, 2017

From NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, March  17, 2017

Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?
What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current IPCC models?

A Twenty-Six Decade Record of Atlantic Hurricanes

R. Garibaldi et al., 2016

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 148, 48-52

As for the potential cause behind the downward trend, Rojo-Garibaldi et al. examined the possibility of a solar influence, performing a series of additional statistical analyses (spectral, wavelet and coherence wavelet transform) on the hurricane database, as well as a sunspot database obtained from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center of the Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Therein, their exploratory analyses revealed that “this decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity.”