by C. Mass, Aug 31, 2026 in WUWT
The media and social media are abuzz with talk about the upcoming “Super” El Niño, with forecasts of low snowpack, drought conditions, and massive wildfires (see sample below).
My local newspaper and some amateur social media are making similar claims.
Few of these scary claims are supported by the facts: in reality, the outlook is quite favorable for our region if a “Super El Niño” continues to develop.
Let me prove this to you.
Surprisingly, there is nothing called a “Super El Nino” in the scientific world.
If the temperature anomaly (difference from normal) of the ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is 1.5 to 2 C above normal, it is called a strong El Niño. More than 2C, a very strong El Niño. The media calls this a “super”; the scientific community does not.
Below is the latest forecast by NOAA. They are predicting a very strong El Niño this autumn (peaking around 2.2 C above normal).
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There is little doubt we will get a very strong El Nino, but this is not unprecedented, with others occurring in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024 (others have occurred before as well).
A KEY point is that very strong El Niños are very different animals than their more moderate cousins. With different impacts.
Moderate to strong El Niños are typically associated with less snowpack and drier-than-normal conditions.
Very strong El Niños bring near-normal snowpack and plenty of moisture.
Thus, our water resources are generally fine with very strong El Niños like the upcoming winter.
Want the proof?
Below is a plot of precipitation from October to April (our wet season) since 1980. The red arrows indicate very strong (“super”) El Nino years, and the yellow line is the average of the period (1980 to today).
Very strong El Niño years are NOT particularly dry… their average is a bit ABOVE NORMAL.
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