by P. Gosselin, Jan 14, 2024, in NoTricksZone
Some alarmist scientists claim it’s the hottest year on record, yet Arctic sea ice for this date stands at its highest level in 21 years.
Hat-tip: EIKE here.
by V. Zharkova & I. Vasilieeva, Nov 2023
Abstract: This paper explores the links between terrestrial temperature, sea levels and ice areas in both hemispheres with solar activity indices expressed through averaged sunspot numbers together with the summary curve of eigen vectors of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and with changes of Sun-Earth distances caused by solar inertial motion resulting from the gravitation of large planets in the solar system.
Using the wavelet analysis of the GLB and HadCRUTS datasets two periods: 21.4 and 36 years in GLB, set and the period of about 19.6 years in the HadCRUTS are discovered. The 21.4 year period is associated with variations in solar activity defined by the summary curve of the largest eigen vectors of the SBMF. A dominant 21.4-year period is also reported in the variations of the sea level, which is linked with the period of 21.4 years detected in the GLB temperature and the summary curve of the SBMF variations. The wavelet analysis of ice and snow areas shows that in the Southern hemisphere it does not show any links to solar activity periods while in the Northern hemisphere the ice area reveals a period of 10.7 years equal to a usual solar acitviity cycle.
The TSI in March-August of every year is found to grow with every year following closely the temperature curve, because the Sun moves closer to the Earth orbit owing to gravitation of large planets. (solar inertial motion, SIM). While the variations of solar radiation during a whole year have more steady distribution without a sharp TSI increase during the last two centuries. The additional TSI contribution caused by SIM is likely to secure the additional energy input and exchange between the ocean and atmosphere.
The paper is accepted for publication.
By P. Homewood, Sep 2, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
As can be seen, the rate of loss in the last decade is similar to the 1930s, 50s and 60s. During the 1970s and 80s, Greenland’s climate grew much colder, and the ice mass loss almost stopped completely.
Significantly the rate of loss now is not accelerating, as you may have assumed from what the media have told you. On the contrary, the rate of loss has been slowing down since 2012.
The average annual loss between 2013 and 2022 was 184 Gt, which equates to 0.51mm sea level rise a year.
In short there is nothing alarming or unprecedented about the tiny amount of ice melt in Greenland.
by P. Gosselin, Nov 30, 2021 in NoTricksZone
Global Sea Ice Area
Data analyst Zoe Phin
Data sources like the National Snow and Ice Data Center show global sea ice has been” drastically decreasing for a long time” and so we need to panic and overhaul the entire carbon economy. We hear this daily in the media.
Surprising global sea ice area findings
But Zoe has analyzed what she characterizes as a “very legitimate source” of data from NASA, (here, or here). And according to her findings, the data from these sources suggest global sea ice loss is not as dramatic as some institutes would like us to believe it is. In fact there ‘s been a gain!
Zoe plotted the data going back 40 years, from 1982 to 2021, the “Global Sea Ice Area Fraction”, which “is a proportion of the entire Earth’s surface that is ice over water.”
“As you can see, about 3.6% (on average) of our planet’s area is covered in ice over water,” reports Zoe. “In the last 40 years, ice over water has INCREASED, and not decreased, as popularly claimed.”
According to Zoe, the observed increase is equivalent to ~30,600 km², or “roughly the size of Belgium”.
Northern hemisphere sea ice area has declined
The northern hemisphere has decreased, and this has gotten lots of attention from alarmists and the media:
by D. Burton, Apr 3, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch
CNBC and the Potsdam Institute (PIK) report that:
We’re halfway to a tipping point that would trigger 6 feet of sea-level rise from the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
PUBLISHED WED, MAR 29 202312:12 PM EDT By Catherine Clifford
● Once people have cumulatively emitted approximately 1,000 gigatons of carbon in total, then the southern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet will melt eventually causing the sea level to rise by almost six feet.
● Once humans have cumulatively emitted approximately 2,500 gigatons of carbon in total, the whole Greenland Ice Sheet will eventually melt and the sea level rise would rise by 6.9 meters or 22.6 feet.
● And right now, now we are at approximately 500 gigatons of carbon emissions released.
Here’s the article.
Here’s the paper.
Like most things from PIK, this “study,” and this CNBC article, are nonsense. [emphasis, links added]
The best estimates are that since 1850, anthropogenic carbon emissions have totaled about 675 Gt of carbon (a/k/a PgC) (not 500).
The difference is the amount removed from the atmosphere by natural negative feedbacks, such as absorption by the oceans, the greening of the Earth, and rock weathering.
(Aside: Petagram ≡ gigatonne ≡ Gt, and “PgC” means “petagram of carbon,” so 1 PgC = 1 Gt of carbon (GtC). 1 ppmv CO2 = 7.8024 Gt CO2 = 2.12940 PgC.)
by Imperial College London, Oct7, 2022 in ScienceDaily
An unexpected river under the Antarctic ice sheet affects the flow and melting of ice, potentially accelerating ice loss as the climate warms.
The 460km-long river is revealed in a new study, which details how it collects water at the base of the Antarctic ice sheet from an area the size of Germany and France combined. Its discovery shows the base of the ice sheet has more active water flow than previously thought, which could make it more susceptible to changes in climate.
The discovery was made by researchers at Imperial College London, the University of Waterloo, Canada, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, and Newcastle University, with the details published today in Nature Geoscience.
Co-author Professor Martin Siegert, from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said: “When we first discovered lakes beneath the Antarctic ice a couple of decades ago, we thought they were isolated from each other. Now we are starting to understand there are whole systems down there, interconnected by vast river networks, just as they might be if there weren’t thousands of metres of ice on top of them.
“The region where this study is based holds enough ice to raise the sea level globally by 4.3m. How much of this ice melts, and how quickly, is linked to how slippery the base of the ice is. The newly discovered river system could strongly influence this process.”
by Andy May, Oct 25, 2022 in WUWT
The following is from Cap Allon’s excellent post here. We are all used to the mainstream media distorting climate science data and analysis, but he has uncovered a case that is beyond the pale. Consider this post a follow up to Dave Middleton’s post earlier the month.
Read on in Cap Allon’s words:
[Greenland’s ‘healthy’ melt season, was obscured across the mainstream media.]
CNN wrote the following in July 20 article: “The amount of ice that melted in Greenland between July 15 and 17 was enough to fill 7.2 million Olympic-sized swimming pools or cover the entire state of West Virginia with a foot of water.”
They even have a quote from cLiMaTe ScIeNtIsT Ted Scambos: “The northern melt this past week is not normal, looking at 30 to 40 years of climate averages. But melting has been on the increase, and this event was a spike in melt.”
CNN is screaming about this period of melting (circled below):
by P. Gosselin, Sep 24, 2022 in NoTricksZone
We have digitized the Polar Portal’s graph of the accumulated surface mass balance and have come up with a value of 467 Gt. That’s 100 Gt or 27% above the 1981…2010 mean! Together with the melting of icebergs (assuming the value of the previous year, which was already 10% more than that of 2020 ) this results in approximately the representation below, which was included in the publication until the report 2020.
In 2021, one has probably omitted for reasons, perhaps the jump was difficult to explain by the calving of icebergs?
The total mass balance is very likely -100 Gt. An “accelerated” thawing of the Greenland ice sheet is not to be recognized. If one accumulates the mass loss, one sees the “braking” very nicely. Acceleration occurred until 2012.
by P. Homewood, Sep 23, 2022 in ClimateChangeDispatch
For years the ‘experts’ have been telling us that the Arctic would soon be ice-free in summer.
Al Gore notoriously warned us in 2009 that ‘there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.’
He was, of course, just a politician. But a whole host of supposed Arctic scientists were all busy issuing similar warnings at the time. [bold, links added]
In 2007, for instance, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told us that northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just five to six years.
In December of that year, Jay Zwally of Nasa agreed, giving the ice till 2012. A year later, in 2008 Professor David Barber went one step further, saying the ice would all be gone that very summer.
For sheer persistence in getting it wrong, however, the prize must go to Peter Wadhams, professor and head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge:
• In 2012, he predicted that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2015/16.
• In 2014, he thought it might last till 2020.
• In 2016, he confidently predicted the Arctic would be ice-free that summer (though curiously he now defined ‘ice-free’ as less than 1 million square kilometers).
All these pronouncements were designed for political propaganda purposes, not for scientific reasons, and were widely propagated by the gullible media.
by P. Gosselin, July 22, 2022 in NoTricksZone
The Alfred Wegner Institute does not see an extreme situation with sea ice in the Arctic (June 2022). The institute’s page states:
The Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) is participating again this year with the AWI Consortium Model, a dynamic coupled sea ice ocean model, and calculated a September sea ice extent of 4.75 million square kilometers in its June forecast. This value is about 4% above the median value of all submitted models but in the middle of the predictions given for dynamic models.
Dr. Frank Kauker, a physicist in the Sea Ice Physics Section at AWI, assesses the first prediction as follows: “The first forecast of a year from the beginning of June is usually still characterized by a rather large uncertainty (this year 0.43 million square kilometers). Nevertheless, at the moment there is nothing to indicate an extreme situation in September.
The ice cover in September will be with a great probability in the range of the last years, i.e. between 4 and 5 million square kilometers. The next forecast in early July will reduce the uncertainty somewhat, as it will become clear in June how many melt ponds will have formed, which will then decisively determine the melt rates of the ice during the rest of the year due to their lower solar irradiance return.”
by P. Gosselin, July 26, 2022 in NoTricksZone
Today we look at the polar ice caps, which the global warming wingnuts claim is the canary in the coal mine and predicted earlier they’d melt and collapse. For example, Al Gore warned the Arctic ice would disappear by 2014.
While CO2 has gone up, Arctic sea ice has RISEN over past decade
But we have a big surprise. First we examine the Arctic sea ice extent so far this summer. Has it melted away like Al Gore said it would?
Antarctica continues long-term upward sea ice trend
Looking at Antarctica sea ice, we also see a zero-crisis trend when plotting the data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA):
by J. Zwally et al., 2021, March 29, in J.of.Glaciology
GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g cm−3. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm a−1 subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt a−1, inland WA is −3.5 mm a−1 at 66 Gt a−1, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm a−1 at −95 Gt a−1. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt a−1, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt a−1 during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt a−1 from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt a−1 by 2012–16.
by T. Ciccone & J. Lehr, May 31, 2022 in CFact
Could Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ meet its doom within 3 years?
“Time is melting away for one of Antarctica’s biggest glaciers, and its rapid deterioration could end with the ice shelf’s complete collapse in just a few years,” alarmist researchers warned at a virtual press briefing on Dec. 13, 2021 at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)–a once outstanding professional society, but now a shill for the left.
Above is the first sentence of the article titled “Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ could meet its doom within 3 years,” not what we would expect to see from a once reputable source, the AGU. It warns us that in a few years, the world’s largest glacier, about the size of Florida, will melt and raise ocean levels by up to 3 meters (about 10 ft). It then tells us that the glacier is melting from below because the surrounding ocean waters have been warmed “thanks to human-induced climate change.” Finally, it tells us that a team of more than 100 scientists from the USA and the UK have been studying the Thwaites glacier and sharing their findings with scientists worldwide.
The article then explains that the Thwaites is not melting from above, but “the melting is coming from below,” from the warmed-up oceans that have been warmed by human-made CO2 and the greenhouse effect. The bulk of the article then proceeds to detail the forecasted consequences around the world:
This team may not have even been communicating with each other. Almost a decade earlier, geologists were seeing evidence of volcanoes in a known active tectonic plate boundary, buried under the glacier and the oceans. Before 2017, at least 47 volcanoes were found in western Antarctica and around the area of the Thwaites glacier. In 2017 the Guardian reported that an additional 91 volcanoes had been found along the western shores of Antarctica, with some sitting under the Twaites glacier itself. See the article “Scientists discover 91 volcanoes below Antarctic ice sheet.”
by J. Hunt, July 1, 2022 in TheGreatWhiteCon
After a relatively rapid decline at the beginning of June Arctic sea extent is now very close to the 2010s average:
Both 2020 and 2021 began relatively rapid declines of their own at the beginning of July, so it will be interesting to see if 2022 follows suit.
by Cap Allon, June 20, 2022 in Electroverse
If you want proof of mainstream media manipulation and agenda driving drivel, you need look no further than the “official” reporting of the Greenland ice sheet–the poster child for anthropogenic global warming. If today’s intensifying energy crisis wasn’t rooted in said obfuscations, all of this would be laughable.
Impressive surface mass balance (SMB) readings –a calculation to determine the ‘health’ of a glacier– have been posted across the Greenland ice sheet all season. But the cherry, at least for me, is taken by Saturday’s record-smashing 7 Gigaton GAIN–particularly when you consider the glacier should be losing mass at this time of year.
The MSM appears to love dumb, decontextualized headlines to advance their AGW narrative. So here’s one for them:
Greenland’s Recent SMB Gains Enough To Bury Central Park, New York City Under 7,833 Feet Of Ice… (it’s true, do the math).
by J. Hunt, Apr 30, 2022 in TheGreatWhite Con
There’s a few things to note at first glance. The ice floe continued to decrease in thickness into November. It’s thickness then started to increase, but is currently still less than 2 meters. Also the snow depth has gradually been increasing, and (apart from some data glitches!) is now ~38 cm. Finally, for the moment at least, the ice surface temperature has been slowly warming since mid February and is now ~-11 °C.
by P. Gosselin, Apr 27, 2022 in NoTricksZone
The Copernicus program offers very interesting data on Arctic ice.
While sea ice has been declining off the Greenland Sea (east of the island), the Chucki Sea (eastern Siberia) shows a very different trend in sea ice extent over the past year. Such deviations have occurred repeatedly since the year 2000.
Overall, the 2021 extent was very close to the 1991-2020 mean and well above the lowest value in 2012 and also above what was recorded in the year 2020
by C. Rotter, Mar 15, 2022 in WUWT/ClimPast
Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 kyr before 2000 CE (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized, making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km−2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km−2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 737 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 kyr period – for which the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. A total of 25 of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years, and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption (1815 CE). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core-based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.How to cite. Lin, J., Svensson, A., Hvidberg, C. S., Lohmann, J., Kristiansen, S., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Rasmussen, S. O., Cook, E., Kjær, H. A., Vinther, B. M., Fischer, H., Stocker, T., Sigl, M., Bigler, M., Severi, M., Traversi, R., and Mulvaney, R.: Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60–9 ka), Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022,
by T. Lison, Nov 24, 2021 in ClimateChangeDispatch
t’s so cold in the Arctic that:
Two icebreakers are on the way to rescue ice-locked ships on Northern Sea Route (snip)
District authorities in the Russian Far East have decided to commission two icebreakers to aid the vessels currently ice-locked in the East Siberian Sea. (snip)
The commissioning of the powerful icebreaking vessels comes as severe sea-ice conditions have taken shippers by surprise. There are now about 20 vessels that either are stuck or struggling to make it across the icy waters.
But what about the Antarctic ice cap?
That’s not about to melt either:
[T]he South Pole also just witnessed a historically cold winter. As reported last month: “Between the months of April and September, the South Pole averaged a temperature of -61.1C (-78F). Simply put, this was the region’s coldest 6-month spell ever recorded, and it comfortably usurped the previous coldest ‘coreless winter‘ on record: the -60.6C (-77F) from 1976 (solar minimum of weak cycle 20).”
In fact, it turns out that, according to a study released a week ago:
PALEOCLIMATE DATA INDICATE THERE WAS LESS ARCTIC SEA ICE DURING THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL PERIOD THAN IN MODERN TIMES, OR WHEN CO2 CONCENTRATIONS WERE 100 PPM LOWER THAN TODAY (280 VS. 380 PPM).
Scientists (Diamond et al., 2021) assert that during the 18th and 19th centuries Arctic sea ice extent minimum (September) values averaged 5.54 million km².
by Cap Allon, Aug 28, 2021 in Electroverse
Arctic Sea Ice Extent has been holding exceptionally well during the 2021 summer melt season.
Throughout August, higher volumes than usual have survived due to cold conditions and favorable wind patterns.
As a result, Arctic Sea Ice Extent is now the highest in 8 years, and, if this year’s trajectory continues for another week or two (which is expected), 2021 will achieve the ‘healthiest’ extent of the past 15 years (since 2006).
Only 2014, 2013, and 2009 remain in its way–though the gap is narrowing, fast:
by Cap Allon, Aug 25, 2021 in Electroverse
Just two years ago, many mainstream media outlets declared that sea ice at the South Pole was melting at an “astonishing” rate.
As recently pointed out by notrickszone.com, German national daily Süddeutsche Zeitung reported in June 2019 that Antarctic sea ice had “shrunk 1.8 million square kilometers”, writing: “the massive disappearance of ice is astonishing”.
And while the reporting was technically factual, it has proven to be yet more AGW-driving obfuscation and cherry-picking rather than well-founded indications of a concerning climatic trend.
And now, in 2021, as the ice sharply rebounds, these same MSM outlets have fallen silent–which is speaking volumes…
Sea ice at the South Pole has rebounded in 2020 and 2021, to the levels of some 3-decades ago.
Moreover, the trend of the past 40+ years (the satellite era) remains one of significant growth (of approx 1% per decade).
In 2021, Antarctic sea ice is actually tracking well-above the multidecadal average (shown below).
MASSIVE SEA ICE REBOUND GOES UNREPORTED
The climate-ambulance chasing MSM have stopped reporting on the state of the ice across the Southern Hemisphere.
CLASSIC DISINFORMATION TECHNIQUE
“Researchers are in agreement that the decline in Antarctic sea ice from 2016 to 2019 is due to natural causes,” writes Die kalte Sonne. “Obviously this is not a good topic for the Süddeutsche Zeitung, who prefer not to report on the ice recovery.”
Not informing the public about the most recent developments, but instead leaving them with a false impression based on carefully cherry-picked data from two years prior, is a classic disinformation technique that has long been perfected by the activist media.
For more on Antarctica, see:
by C. Rotter, July 14, 2021 in WUWTfromNSIDC
Surface melt and total melt-day area for the Greenland Ice Sheet at the end of the 2021 spring season was below the 1981 to 2010 average. Snowfall and rain (minus runoff) added mass to the ice sheet. As of June 20, total mass gain for the ice sheet since September 2020 was slightly above average. The spike from June 25 to June 27 will be discussed in later a post.
by Cap Allon, July 14, 2021 in Electrroverse
According to the June, 2021 report recently released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), it is revealed that the ice locked at Earth’s poles is actually GROWING.
The opening paragraph of the report reads: “Sea ice in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica was well above the 1981 to 2010 average extent in June, rising above the ninetieth percentile near the end of the month”.
But that’s as far as the NSIDC go…
They have plenty to say on the Arctic –which is experiencing its sixth lowest extent on record (big whoop)– but when it comes to Antarctica, I hear nothing but “crickets” — clearly, the icy continent GROWING in mass, and so offsetting the comparatively small losses registered by its northern cousin, is seen as a dampener to the AGW party.
Or perhaps the NSIDC are just letting the data speak for itself:
… it is revealed that Antarctic sea ice extent, as of June 12 (or day 193), is at an impressive 15.808 million square kilometres (6.104 million square miles) — this is the largest extent at this time of year since 2015, and also sees it tracking well-above the 1979-1990 average.
This news, if you’re an alarmist, is surely something to be celebrated.
The icy continent holds 90% of Earth’s freshwater — so, if you’re one of the gullible that have been conditioned to lose sleep over ‘sea level rise’ then this latest datapoint should quell those fears.
Unfortunately though, alarmists selectively ignore ‘good news’ and instead accumulate only bad news–the news that supports their fears, which, thanks to the likes of the IPCC and their MSM lapdogs, is rammed down our collective throats on a daily basis — it is impossible to ignore.
It’s a type of cognitive dissonance, I guess — people are rejecting new information that conflicts with their existing beliefs, even when the new information is positive: this isn’t how science is supposed to work.
Oh, and the NSIDC has more.
Looking at their historical chart which runs back to 1979, an overall trend of growth is shown here, too.
According to the data, ice around the southern pole has been increasing at ≈1 percent per decade: