by P. Homewood, July 30, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
So far July 2022 has been the driest July in England since 1911. Up to 26 July there has been only 15.8mm of rain averaged across England; this is only 24% of the amount we would expect in an average July.
At this stage in the month we would expect to have seen well over three-quarters of the month’s rain to have already fallen in an average July.
The situation for the UK is a little better. As it stands, July 2022 is still the eighth driest July since 1836. With only 37.7mm of rain having fallen so far it is the driest July since 1984. Scotland has been closer to average in the north and west, but drier conditions have prevailed for south and east Scotland. Overall Scotland (71%), Wales (39%) and Northern Ireland (43%) have been dry, but the most extreme conditions are in East Anglia and southeast England.
Mark McCarthy, Head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre, said: “It is not just July that has been dry. Since the start of the year, all months apart from February have been drier than average in the UK too. The result of this is that the winter, spring and summer of 2022 have all seen less than the UK average seasonal rainfall.
“England has seen the lowest levels during these periods and, rainfall totals for the first six months of the year are around 25% below their long-term average, with the driest regions in the east and southeast.
by P. Homewood, July 27, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
To compare this year with 1976 is really quite mendacious, as the latter was much, much drier. And as the BBC’s own chart shows, there have been eight other years since then with similar rainfall levels to this year. Indeed, in England, as opposed to England & Wales, both 1996 and 2010 had drier starts to the year).
In other words, this year is not an exceptional event, merely something you expect to see every few years or so.
And if you go back through the full Met Office record to 1836, we can see again that there is nothing at all unusual about this year.( Indeed, all of the really dry years occurred in 1976 and before:
See also : Driest Start Since 1976? No, 2010 Was Drier
by P. Homewood, July 24, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
People on social media have been comparing the high temperatures in much of the UK with the heatwave of 1976, suggesting that the severity of the current hot weather is being exaggerated.
So, what does the evidence show?
How hot was the summer of 1976?
The peak that year was 35.9C. That has been beaten by the current temperatures, with 40.3C recorded so far.
The heatwave of 1976 started in June and lasted for two months. There was a lack of rainfall and a significant drought, with the government enforcing water rationing.
The heatwave was rare for that decade. The average maximum temperature in July in the 1970s was 18.7C. In the 2010s, it was more than 20C.
by P. Homewood, July 23, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
There has inevitably been a lot of apoplectic reporting about this week’s heatwave in Britain. Everybody from the BBC to the Met Office have been blaming it on climate change, with suitably scary colours to ram the message home:
Comparison of TV weather Maps from the BBC in summer 2012, left, and summer 2022 right. Source: BBC
Courtesy of Climate Realism
But so far I have not seen an objective analysis.
So let’s start with a few simple facts:
1) It was extremely hot for a couple of days this week.
2) The heat was the result of an extremely unlikely set of meteorological conditions – a perfect storm, if you like.
We know this because the Met Office told us so. On July 8th, they announced the possibility of a heatwave a week later. The weather model runs produced a wide band of possibilities, with most predicting similar temperatures to the weekend before, and some even forecasting no heatwave at all. At that stage on a couple of models out of the hundreds run predicted 40C temperatures, which were described by the BBC as “a very tiny possibility”.
by P. Homewood, Mar 3, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
THE price of gas is through the roof thanks to Vladimir Putin, who has Europe’s energy market by the throat.
Britain is on track to spend a staggering £2BILLION on imported liquefied natural gas from Russia this year as war rages in Ukraine.
Household bills will skyrocket even more than they already were — and could hit £3,000 a year.
This is what happens when you rely on imported foreign energy.
And what makes it more maddening is that we don’t need to do this. We have supplies here.
Under Lancashire and Yorkshire lies one of the best reservoirs of natural gas in the world, known as the Bowland Shale.
At current prices, just ten per cent of this gas is worth several trillion pounds and could keep Britain supplied with gas for five decades.
And we will need gas for decades whatever happens: To back up wind farms, heat homes and make vital chemicals for industry.
by P. Homewood, Feb 16, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
We should find out whether UK shale gas will work – lift the fracking ban and let’s find out.
We do understand that if you’re an activist in a political party then it is necessary to accept some of the argument as handed down from on high. That’s rather what the collective vision of a political party means. But we do wish that such activists would occasionally have a little think about what they’re being asked to swallow. Perhaps taste it for basic logic, that sort of thing.
Take, for example, this insistence that there’s no point in fracking for natural gas because it will take a decade to get anywhere. Peter Franklin repeats this at Conservative Home for example:
by P. Homewood, Nov 1, 2021 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Last month was unusually mild in England. Indeed it was the 16th warmest in the Central England Temperature Series, dating back to 1659.
Curiously though it was not even as warm as October 1921, a hundred years ago:
by P. Homewood, March 7, 2021 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Last month we looked back at January weather in 1941, 1951, 1961 and 1971, to see how it compared with this year. Time to take a look at February.
Overall both temperatures and rainfall in England were close to average. (Note the Met Office are still incorrectly using 1981-2010 as the baseline).
by C. Rotter, Feb 13, 2021 in WUWT
Guest Post by Tony Brown
Section 1 Introduction
A visit to the Botanical gardens in Cambridge was made by the author of this paper on August 7th 2020 between 10.15AM to 12.25pm. The purpose was to look at the site of the Stevenson screen there, following the establishment at this location of the highest ever recorded UK instrumental temperature, confirmed by the Met Office as 38.7 C ( 101.6 Fahrenheit ) taken at the gardens on 25 July 2019, and to determine the possible effects on this record caused by urbanisation. From the botanic garden web site we note:
“Analysis of the Garden’s weather records show that over the last 100 years our average temperature has risen by 1.2 Celsius and the hottest day, highest monthly and yearly average have all occurred within the last 20 years. The highest ever temperature recorded at the Garden before this new record was 36.9 C, recorded on 10 August, 2003.” * See; “Section 5; Temperature trends.”
Cambridge University Botanic Garden records highest ever UK temperature – Cambridge Botanic Garden
Some context is provided by firstly examining the past and present urbanisation of the gardens, the location of the Stevenson screen and there then follows an examination of various temperature recordings locally to determine what affect if any the urbanisation may have had.
The visit was made during one of the hottest spells of the 2020 summer and in similar conditions to the record, in as much it had been hot in the days running up to the record with prolonged sunshine and light winds and these were mirrored on the day of the visit. The preceding day, August 6th 2020 was partially cloudy and very warm at 27C, close by at Cambridge Airport.
by Cap Allon, Jan 25, 2021 in Electroverse
According to the UK Met Office, snowfall in Britain will be a thing of the past by 2040-2060 — a ludicrous, fear-mongering prophesy, and one almost as stupid as the claims made by senior climatologist Dr David Viner of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia.
Back in 2000, and as reported by the Telegraph (since deleted), Viner said: within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event,” adding that “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Frustratingly, these hacks are never called to task, their mistakes and dud-research seldom analysed or investigated. Instead, the cycle is simply one of rinse and repeat: the global warming cabal call-up their next set of “higher-educated” brainwashees who go on to use the exact same flawed upside down pyramid built on the work of just a few climate modelers to make the exact same tired-old doomsday predictions–such as “the end of snow”.
Just yesterday, January 25, a severe weather warning was in place across a large portion of the UK as heavy snow threatened.
The pow-pow duly arrived early Sunday morning with some regions, particularly those in central England and Wales, registering accumulations of 5+ inches (13+ cm) in just an hour and a half.
by Cap Allon, Dec 2, 2020 in Electroverse
The UK is set for a flurry of heavy and rare early-December snow this week, with even far southern regions on course for disruptive accumulations.
The first dusting is expected to arrive across the northern half of the UK today, Dec. 2, and more will follow in the coming days, to more southern regions, too, as a descending Arctic blast tightens its grip on the nation.
Heavy snow is likely to have buried vast swathes of the country by Friday, with forecasters suggesting the bitter wintry mix could even rage on until the middle of next week -at least- with hard frosts also expected: “In the clear periods between bands of wintry showers, frosts are likely and these could be sharp or even severe in prolonged clear conditions in north-western parts of the UK,” warns Steve Ramsdale, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office.
Over the next 5 days alone, latest GFS runs reveal Britain will be hit by a substantial smattering of early-season snow as frigid polar air rides anonymously-far south on the back of a meridional jet stream—a setup shown to increase during times of low solar activity–such as we’re suffering now:
by P. Homewood, September 8, 2020 in NotaLotofPepoleKnowThat
Mean temperatures across the UK were slightly above average, but well below the record years of 1976, 2003, 2006 and 2018.
by P. Homewood, September 3, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Whether we enter another period of AMO related cooling in coming decades remains to be seen. But what the data conclusively shows is that, as far as the UK is concerned, the recent rate of sea level rise is not unprecedented, nor is there any evidence of it accelerating.
by P. Homewood, September 3, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Despite a few warm days in early August, the month as a whole was not unusually hot, a full 1.6C cooler than August 1995, according to the Central England Temperature series. Other hotter Augusts include 1911, 1947 and 1975.
It was even colder than 1736 and 1899.
Summer as whole was even less remarkable, ranking 51st, tied with years such as 1701, 1731 and 1780.
The summers of 1976 and 1826 remain the two hottest on record, well above anything seen since.
by P. Homewood, July 1, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Phew, what a scorcher?? Hardly.
Despite the hype of the last week, the average temperature in England last month was pretty ordinary.
According to the Central England Temperature series, June 2020 was only the 59th warmest on record.
Not only were the four hottest Junes prior to 1900, no June since 1976 has been in the top 17.
by P. Homewood, June 5, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
I make no comment about the global numbers, but would simply point out that none of the official agencies have released their data for May. The BBC claim comes from Copernicus, the EU agency, not regarded as a reliable source.
However the BBC claim about the UK is hopelessly wide of the mark. According to the Met Office, last month was only the 15th warmest May since 1884, and was not even as warm as 1893 and 1911!
Such sloppy reporting is only too common at the BBC, and not just where climate change is concerned. It only takes a minute to find the Met Office data, and I find it hard to understand why the programme editors did not think it worthwhile checking such an outlandish claim first.
Needless to say, I have filed a complaint, to add to the list of BBC climate lies!!
by P. Homewood, June 3, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
While we’re on with Harrabin’s hysterics about May’s sunny weather being due to climate change, it is appropriate to point out to him that last month was far from being the hottest on record in England:
In fact there have been 47 hotter Mays since 1659. The hottest was 1833, and the five hottest were all pre 1850.
See also: UAH Global Temperature Update for May 2020: +0.54 deg. C
by Cap Allon, May 14, 2020 in Electroverse
Parts of the UK and US have suffered their lowest May temperatures on record of late, according to data from filthy warm-mongers & partners-in-crime the Met Office and NOAA.
While the official li(n)e coming out of these agencies is that our World Is On Fire, thermometer stations the length and breadth of both Europe and North America are telling a rather different story.
Overnight Wednesday (May 13-14), the mercury in Katesbridge and Castlederg, N. Ireland, plummeted to an extra-duvet-grabbing -6.1C (21F) and -3.9C (25F), respectively, as a wave of brutal Arctic air rode anomalously-far south on the back on a meridional (wavy) jet stream flow.
Wednesday night followed what had been a record-chilly day — a minimum temperature of -5C (23F)was observed in Tulloch Bridge, Scotland.
The wave of record cold actually engulfed much of Northern Europe overnight Wednesday, as visible in coolwx.com‘s temperature animation:
by P. Homewood, May 2, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
In other words, all we have had is “weather”, and of the type we have had plenty of times in the past.
What has made the month much warmer than average is the persistence of this weather. Indeed this has been the pattern all year, with daily temperatures consistently above average, but within the normal band.
by P. Homewood, April 16, 2020 In NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
London, 16 April: The floods that affected northern England in the autumn of 2019 were nothing out of the ordinary. That’s according to a new review of the UK’s 2019 weather.
Author Paul Homewood says that although rainfall in the region was high, it has been exceeded several times in the past, right back to the 19th century.
* After a rising trend between the 1980s and early 2000s, temperature trends have stabilised in the UK.
* Heatwaves are not becoming more intense, but extremely cold weather has become much less common.
* There is little in the way of long-term trends in rainfall in England and Wales.
* Sea-level rise around British coasts is not accelerating.
The UK’s Weather in 2019: More of the same, again (PDF)
by J. Delingpole, February 19, 2020 in ClimateChangeDispatch
Boris Johnson’s Greenest Government Evah has come up with a brilliant new excuse to duck its responsibilities for all the floods now swamping parts of Britain: climate change ate our homework.
From Hereford to Shrewsbury and South Wales to North Yorkshire, swathes of Britain are underwater thanks to flooding in the aftermath of Storm Dennis, which so far has claimed five lives.
There are currently more than 400 flood warnings around Britain, with more heavy rain forecast to come.
But the government has effectively absolved itself of responsibility by pinning the blame on ‘climate change.’
Environment Secretary George ‘Useless’ Eustice has said in an interview with LBC radio that the scale of the flooding is due to the ‘nature of climate change.’
by Tony Brown, February 15, 2020 in WUWT
This is the third examination of Central England Temperatures (CET) in a series that commenced in 2015 and which has charted the recent decline in temperatures from their highest values. The two previous articles in this series are referenced here;
The Rise and Fall of Central England Temperatures; Part 1 covering 2000 to 2015
The Rise and Fall of Central England Temperatures; Part 2 covering 2000 to 2017
When referencing any ‘decline’ we need to put that into context against CET’s overall substantial rise in recent decades. The official CET dataset used in this article, which is compiled by the UK Met office is linked here and shown in Figure A);
It should be noted that the values between 1538 and 1658 are my own reconstruction and are not used at all in this current paper.
Note: Weather comprises the day to day events that we all experience. Climate is officially the trend of the weather (often temperature and rainfall) taken over a continuous thirty year period. The two terms have sometimes been used in an interchangeable manner here, when a period of more than a year is being examined.
According to the Met office; ‘Since 1974 the data have been adjusted to allow for urban warming: currently a correction of -0.2 °C is applied to mean temperatures.’
by P. Homewood, February 10, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Britain is facing further mayhem over the next 48 hours in the wake of Storm Ciara which battered Britain with winds of up to 100mph causing widespread flooding and travel chaos.
Hundreds of flights were grounded, motorways and main roads shut and trains cancelled and delayed in the wake of a storm that threatens further disruption.
The Met Office warned that ‘exceptional’ gusts of up to 70mph would strike again on Monday and issued snow and ice warnings for large swathes of northern England and almost all of Scotland. The south of England will also be hit for a second day by heavy winds.
Gusts of 97mph were recorded at the Needles off the Isle of Wight while Manchester Airport was buffeted by winds of up to 86mph.
Continuer la lecture de Storm Of The Century? Don’t Be Silly, Met Office →
by Cap Allon, November 19, 2019 in Electroverse
After decades of being lectured by the Met Office -among others– that global warming will bring an end to extreme-cold temperatures, the UK still somehow keeps-on clocking them — yet another example of how simple real-world observations can unravel the AGW-ruse.
Brits have been suffering-through an historically cold month, too — November’s average temperature has held well-below the norm for the first 17 days, continuing October’s dramatic cooling trend:
The Central England Temperature (CET) record measures the monthly mean surface air temperatures for the Midlands region of England, and is the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence anywhere in the world.
Its mean reading for November 2019 (to the 17th) is sitting at 6.6C — that’s 0.7C below the already cool 1961-1990 average, the current standard period of reference for climatological data used by the WMO.
In the 360 years of CET data, there have only been 10 other years with an November average temperature of 6.6C — these are 1804, 1833, 1835, 1849, 1886, 1932, 1941, 1949, 1977, 1980.
Note also how the majority of these years fall in or around solar minimums of the past (1804, 1849, and 1980 being the only exceptions).
by P. Homewood, September 27, 2019 in GWPF
London, 27 September: The UK’s key climate indicators have barely changed for 20 years. That’s according to a new paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation, which rebuts claims that the weather is getting worse.
According to author Paul Homewood, the Met Office’s Central England Temperature Record shows that temperatures have barely changed in 20 years and that there has been no increase in extremely hot days either:
“The summer of 2018 had just one day over 30 degrees, while 1976 had six. The Met Office’s data show that hot days are just not becoming more common.”
And there seems to be little to worry about on bad weather front either. There has been a gentle decline in storminess, and in most of the UK, there has been no change in either average rainfall or rainfall extremes:
“Only in Scotland has there been a noticeable increase”, says Homewood. “Climate hysteria is entirely overdone.”
Paul Homewood: Plus Ça Change: The UK Climate in 2018 (pdf)