by K. Richard, Dec 26, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The 2013-2022 warming trend and the extreme warmth in 2023 were “not associated with” declining outgoing long-wave radiation induced by rising greenhouse gases. [emphasis, links added]
Instead, a new study published in the journal Science contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR, or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W/m²/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively) explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth’s surface, warming it.)
A rising trend in anthropogenic greenhouse gases was supposed to reduce the Earth’s outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), and a declining OLR was thought to be the driver of modern warming.
Instead, the opposite has occurred. There has been an increasing OLR trend since 2013.
This enhancement of the Earth’s OLR trend actually serves to counteract the ASR-induced warming strongly associated with the aforementioned declining cloud cover albedo.
In other words, the total greenhouse effect impact from rising greenhouse gases has recently been contributing to a reduction in global warming, partially offsetting the warming induced by rising ASR.
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