by Cédric Moro, 18 septembre 2017 in Mythes,Mancies&Mathématiques
Que n’a-t-on pas entendu dans une partie de la presse et dans les déclarations à chaud de scientifiques et d’experts du climat sur l’uragan Irma. C’était du jamais vu, du jamais mesuré, d’une puissance inégalée, Europe 1 allant jusqu’à parler « du plus important de l’histoire climatologique ». Des eaux extraordinairement chaudes devaient expliquer son intensité effroyable (sous-entendu : Irma, c’est la faute au réchauffement), ses vents destructeurs records, son diamètre exceptionnel, ses pluies diluviennes, son raz de marée démesuré, son intensification inouïe ou ses dégâts hors normes…
Après avoir vu leur production tripler entre 2010 et 2014, les « light tight oil » américains (LTO), fréquemment appelés « pétroles de schiste », ont fait preuve d’une résilience étonnante lors de la chute des prix. Ils surprennent aujourd’hui à nouveau les marchés et pourraient contrarier la stratégie de l’OPEP.
Dans cette étude publiée par le Centre Énergie de l’Ifri, Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe (voir le .pdf ci-dessous) présente les grands changements du secteur des LTO américains au cours des dernières années en expliquant leur résilience lors de la chute des cours et leurs perspectives de croissance.
Considering the likelihood of future presentations and discussions, an update of paleoclimatological information was overdue. I was amazed to bump into a full overview of the atmospheric CO2 content of the last 420 million years published much earlier this year. An important milestone in the history of climate on Earth
by Javier, September 15, 2017, in Judith Curry Climate Etc.
The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.
The cycle is most prominently displayed in oceanic subsurface water temperatures, Arctic atmospheric circulation, wind deposits, Arctic drift ice, and storminess records.
Climate Change: The Facts 2017 contains 22 essays by internationally-renowned experts and commentators, including Dr Bjorn Lomborg, Dr Matt Ridley, Professor Peter Ridd, Dr Willie Soon, Dr Ian Plimer, Dr Roy Spencer, and literary giant Clive James. Anthony Watts also has a chapter.
The volume is edited by Dr Jennifer Marohasy, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs. Fourteen of the contributors currently hold or have held positions at a university or a scientific research organisation.
Zerbini et al. also investigated/tested for the existence of an acceleration of sea level rise in each of the six Mediterranean station’s data, reporting that “our analysis indicates that it is not possible to reliably state the existence of any acceleration, in the area of this study, considering the past 140 years or so, from 1870 through 2012.”
The record-setting twelve-year long hurricane “drought” (no major hurricane landfalls on the US) was just weather. But the Left immediately boldly and confidently declared Harvey and Irma to be caused (or worsened) by anthropogenic climate change. Some of these screeds are mostly rational, just exaggerated or imbalanced.
La consommation mondiale d’énergie pourrait augmenter de 28% entre 2015 et 2040 selon les dernières prévisions de l’EIA (agence américaine d’information sur l’énergie) présentées hier. Le mix énergétique mondial devrait pour sa part rester très largement dominé par les énergies fossiles dans les décennies à venir.
by Anastasios Tsonis, September 15, 2017 in GWPF Report26 (.pdf)
This report describes this phenomenon and brings it into a modern global con- text. But the story is more than simply one of some old South American geophysical phenomenology seen from a global perspective; it is tied to an extraordinary story about new scienti c thinking, arising at the end of the 20th century, concerning the nature of change itself.
The discovery of volcanoes under the Antarctic ice sheet may be old news, but now we have evidence that at least some of them have recently (geologically speaking) erupted…
World energy consumption is projected to rise to 736 quadrillion btu (quads) in 2040 from 575 quads in 2015, an increase of 28%, according to the latest International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) from the US Energy Information Administration.
Most of this growth is expected to come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and especially in countries where demand is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India, accounts for more than 60% of the world’s total increase in energy consumption from 2015 through 2040.
I have written about sea level rise here: here, here, here, here and here. The previous essays are not prerequisites but are interesting specific examples.
There are two important points which readers must be aware of from the first mention of SLR:
SLR is a real imminent threat to coastal cities and low-lying coastal and near-coastal densely-populated areas.
SLR is not a threat to anything else — not now, not in a hundred years — probably not in a thousand years — maybe, not ever.
The international team, including palaeontologist from The University of Manchester, found a new set of trace fossils left by some of the first ever organisms capable of active movement. Trace fossils are the tracks and burrows left by living organisms, not physical remains such as bones or body parts.
While the United States gears up for what is expected to be a record-breaking production year in 2018, the rest of the world remains far away from catching up to America’s runaway shale success. But while the U.S. may be the only country producing commercially significant volumes of shale today, it’s not the only one with sizable shale reserves—according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina, Algeria, and China all have more shale gas than the United States, and Russia has nearly as much tight oil
by Paul Homewood, September 1, 2017 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Since 1851, there have been 14 stronger hurricanes at landfall, and Irma ties with 10 others. In other words, Irma is one of 25 hurricanes as strong or stronger.
Le cyclone Irma qui a dévasté Saint-Martin et Saint-Barthélémy dans les Antilles françaises a servi de prétexte à de nombreux commentateurs et journalistes pour en remettre une couche sur les “dérèglements climatiques d’origine humaine”. Comme d’habitude, les vagues éléments de prudence rappelant qu’on ne peut tirer de conclusions d’un élément isolé ont vite été noyés par les “appels à l’action” et l’invocation de l’Accord de Paris de 2015.
Or s’agissant du climat aux Antilles l’année 2015 a été importante pour une toute autre raison que la signature de l’Accord de Paris : c’est l’année de publication d’un article de recherche tout à fait passionnant sur les ouragans dans cette région du monde.
This modern rate – just 0.17-0.18 of a meter per century –has remained relatively unchanged from the overall 20th century average, and there has been no statistically significant acceleration in the sea level rise rate (just 0.0042 mm/yr-²) since 1900.
by Paul Homewood, September 7, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch
(…)
In other words, there have now been four hurricanes as strong or stronger since 1980, about one every decade, and certainly nothing like the “unprecedented” impression left by the headlines.
And as we know, prior to Allen in 1980, we had very little in the way of measurements in mid-ocean.
A closer look at the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, widely acknowledged to be by far the most powerful storm to hit the US, emphasizes this fact.
Don’t hold your breath: Even the best meteorologists in the world weren’t able to predict the development and track of Hurricane Harvey until a few days before it hit. (…)
Weather and climate analyst Schneefan here writes of “early frost” in the Arctic and how Greenland snow and ice have grown after being hit by a “snow bomb”. This contradicts the expectations of global warming alarmists.
The polar summer this year appears to have ended prematurely. The mean temperature of the central Arctic above 80°N has remained under the long-term average over the entire summer and even dipped below the freezing point about a week earlier than normal (1958-2002 mean).
Il se produit en moyenne 300 catastrophes naturelles par an, soit presque une par jour ; nous en sommes informés en temps réel et la responsabilité du réchauffement est presque systématiquement invoquée. Il se diffuse ainsi dans l’opinion l’idée d’un dérèglement climatique qui irait en s’accentuant sous l’effet du réchauffement. Les différentes sources de données exploitées dans cet article sont convergentes : il n’y a pas d’augmentation de la fréquence , de l’intensité et de la durée des événements extrêmes depuis le début de l’ère industrielle, qu’il s’agisse des cyclones et des tempêtes, des inondations, des sécheresses et des vagues de chaleur . Cela est d’ailleurs admis par le GIEC dans son rapport spécial sur les événements extrêmes de 2012, et dans son 5ème rapport d’évaluation de 2013.
We describe late Miocene tetrapod footprints (tracks) from the Trachilos locality in western Crete (Greece), which show hominin-like characteristics. They occur in an emergent horizon within an otherwise marginal marine succession of Messinian age (latest Miocene), dated to approximately 5.7 Ma (million years), just prior to the Messinian Salinity Crisis.
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse
