by Kenneth Richard, June 8, 2017 in NoTricksZone
The conventional basic climate model applies “basic physics” to climate, estimating sensitivity to CO2. However, it has two serious architectural errors. It only allows feedbacks in response to surface warming, so it omits the driver-specific feedbacks
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by NASA, October 30, 2015
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.
by Andy May, June 8, 2017 in WUWT
As we did in the previous two posts, we will examine each proxy and reject any that have an average time step greater than 130 years or if it does not cover at least part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO). We are looking for coverage from 9000 BP to 500 BP or very close to these values. Only simple statistical techniques that are easy to explain will be used.
by Arthur Viterito, April 25, 2016 in J. of Earth Sc. & Climatic Change
Earth’s climate is a remarkably “noisy” system, driven by scores of oscillators, feedback mechanisms, and radiative forcings. Amidst all this noise, identifying a solitary input to the system (i.e., HGFA MAG4/6 seismic activity as a proxy for geothermal heat flux) that explains 62% of the variation in the earth’s surface temperature is a significant finding. Additionally, the 1997/1998 SIENA was a strong signal for subsequent global warming, and this type of seismic jump may provide valuable predictive information
by P. Gosselin, June 7, 2017 in NoTrickZone
Germany is failing horribly to reach its emissions targets, as the following chart in the report shows.
by S.D. Connell et al., 2017 in Current Biology (in CO2 Science)
The increasing absorption of CO2 and associated decline in seawater pH values is thought to pose direct harm to marine life in the decades and centuries to come by affecting rates of survival, calcification, growth, development and/or reproduction. However, as ever more pertinent evidence accumulates, a much more optimistic viewpoint is emerging.
by Anthony Watts, May 30, 2017 in WUWT
From the UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX and overheated climate science department, comes a claim that just doesn’t seem plausible, suggesting that in the future, nearly 11% of a “worst-off city” gross domestic product would be consumed by UHI boosted climate change. On the other hand, the study is by Dr. Richard Tol, who is well respected by the climate skeptic community. He does have a point about “the effects of uncontrolled urban heat islands”
Overheated cities face climate change costs at least twice as big as the rest of the world because of the ‘urban heat island’ effect, new research shows.
by Connaissance des Energies, 8 juin 2017
Les États-Unis sont restés les premiers producteurs mondiaux de gaz naturel et d’hydrocarbures liquides en 2016 selon un article publié hier par l’EIA américaine. État des lieux.
La reprise de la hausse de production américaine d’hydrocarbures liquides est, selon IFP Énergies nouvelles, due pour moitié au pétrole de schiste mais aussi à une augmentation de la production des liquides de gaz naturel et de celle de pétrole issu de gisements offshore (fruit des investissements décidés entre 2010 et 2014 lorsque les cours du pétrole étaient au plus haut).
by Stephanie Osborn, June 7, 2017
I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet since late last summer, and here are the results, as of June 6th, 2017. (Quick and easy data source, the daily sunspot image archives from Solarham.)
This data (through March; I’ve updated it since then) was posted on Jerry Pournelle’s blog a while back, and it elicited several questions from readers, who didn’t understand the information contained therein. So here is an effort to elaborate on the data, for those of you who aren’t astronomers/ astrophysicists and don’t want to have to keep up with all this stuff.
by Sam W. Heads et al., June 7, 2017, in PLOS/One
A new fossil mushroom is described and illustrated from the Lower Cretaceous Crato Formation of northeast Brazil. Gondwanagaricites magnificus gen. et sp. nov. is remarkable for its exceptional preservation as a mineralized replacement in laminated limestone, as all other fossil mushrooms are known from amber inclusions. Gondwanagaricites represents the oldest fossil mushroom to date and the first fossil mushroom from Gondwana.
by Steve Austin, June 6, 2017
Some wars are fought on the sidelines. They too are full of ideas, intrigue and bravado. Some backfire thoroughly. The Saudis took a brunt of it in their war with shale.
In the US, after the peak oil production of early seventies, the oil industry went into a limbo. It even looked like the US would be an importer of oil forever. Yet, thing did change.
by K. Thirumalai et al., June 6, 2017, in Nature Communication
In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years.
by Michael Stars et al., June 5, 2017 in Nature Communication
High latitude ocean gateway changes are thought to play a key role in Cenozoic climate evolution. However, the underlying ocean dynamics are poorly understood. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model to investigate the effect of ocean gateway formation that is associated with the subsidence of the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. We find a threshold in sill depth (∼50 m) that is linked to the influence of wind mixing.
by Andy May, June 6, 2017, in WUWT
In the last post (see here) we introduced a new Holocene temperature reconstruction for Antarctica using some of the Marcott, et al. (2013) proxies. In this post, we will present two more reconstructions, one for the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (60°S to 30°S) and another for the tropics (30°S to 30°N)
by David Archibald, June 6, 2017 in WUWT
Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity thus far, likely the lowest in 100 years. The F10.7 flux shows that over the last three and a half years the Sun has gone from solar maximum through a bounded decline to the current stage of the trail to minimum. Solar minimum is likely to be still three years away.
by Energy Live News, June , 2017 in GWPF
The EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased in 2015 for the first time since 2010.
According to new data published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the 0.5% increase happened largely due to increasing demand for transport – better fuel efficiency in the sector was not enough to offset this.
Complete .pdf available here
by Mote Marine Laboratory, June 5, 2017 in ScienceDaily
A controlled lab study led by Mote Marine Laboratory and published June 1 in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE revealed that black band disease was less deadly to mountainous star coral (Orbicella faveolata) as water acidified, or decreased in pH.
by Arizona State University, S.H. Shim et al., June 5, 2017, in ScienceDaily
As slabs of Earth’s crust decend into the mantle, they encounter a zone about 1,100 kilometers down where the mantle rock abruptly becomes stiffer, flowing less easily. Similarly, rising plumes of molten rock encounter the same layer and have difficulty punching through from below.
by Arnd Henze, June 3, 2017 in GWPF
A statement submitted to the ARD Capital Studio, the “Berliner Kreis (Berlin Circle)”, which includes numerous federal and communal politicians of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), calls for an end to “moral blackmail” by climate research and a “farewell to unilateral German CO2 targets.”
on Fox News, in Climate Change Dispatch , June 5, 2017
Former Vice President Al Gore was forced to admit on Sunday that the UN Paris climate accord was a symbolic effort and merely “sends a very powerful signal.” Gore once again spun a series of climate falsehoods in just a few short sound bites
by Clives James, The Australian in GWPF, June 6, 2017
Actually, a more illustrative starting point for the theme of the permanently imminent climatic apocalypse might be taken as August 3, 1971, when The Sydney Morning Herald announced that the Great Barrier Reef would be dead in six months.
After six months the reef had not died, but it has been going to die almost as soon as that ever since, making it a strangely durable emblem for all those who have wedded themselves to the notion of climate catastrophe.
by Paul Homewood, June 5, 2017
Arctic sea ice extent continues to run well above the level of the last two years.
Much more significantly though, the average extent for the whole of May was the highest since 2013, and was also higher than 2004 and 2006.
by Bjorn Lomborg, June 2017
Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.
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The peer-reviewed paper is published in the upcoming issue of Global Policy journal (November 2015). You can access the article online here.
by Collin Eaton, May 27, 2017 in Houston Chronicle
Drillers have mastered feat of pumping more at less cost
On a drilling rig towering above quiet cattle farms in Southeast Texas, Eric Williams perched inside the cabin of the 16-story machine, twisting a pair of joysticks to guide a gigantic wrench roaring into action, drowning out every sound as it reached for a 1,500-pound pipe emerging from the earth – pipe that soon will feed oil into a second shale boom.
by John Kemp, London in Reuters, June 1, 2017
U.S. oil production continues to rise relentlessly, frustrating efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporters to rebalance the global market and secure an increase in the price of crude.
After a devastating slump in 2015 and 2016, the U.S. oil industry has returned to strong growth, with drilling and output rising rapidly