by Steve McIntyre, April 2017, Climate Audit
A great synthesis very useful and impressive, well argued. From 1998 until today.
Paris climate promises will reduce temperatures by just 0.05°C in 2100 (Press release)
by Bjorn Lomborg, April 2017
The climate impact of all Paris INDC promises is minuscule: if we measure the impact of every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100.
Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.
Satellite Data: Post El Niño Global Surface Cooling Continues… Pause Extends To 20 Years
by P. Gosselin, April 12, 2017
Critical German climate site wobleibtdieererwaermung.de (WBDE) reports that the earth’s surface is cooling, and presents the latest chart from NCEP. As of April 11, the measured global values continue to decline (black curve) as do the computed values for April 18.
The time-delayed post El Niño cooling is now showing up in the UAH and RSS satellite data.
The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses
by Christopher Hedemann et al., March 17, 2017, Nature
During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing2, 3, 4, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1. However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
See also Anthony Watts, April 17, 2017
Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems
by B.P. Heard et al., 2017
An effective response to climate change demands rapid replacement of fossil carbon energy sources. This must occur concurrently with an ongoing rise in total global energy consumption. While many modelled scenarios have been published claiming to show that a 100% renewable electricity system is achievable, there is no empirical or historical evidence that demonstrates that such systems are in fact feasible. Of the studies published to date, 24 have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements at sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible. We critically review these studies using four novel feasibility criteria for reliable electricity systems needed to meet electricity demand this century
The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists
by M. Oliva et al., 2017
In light of all the above, the evidence is clearly mounting against those who point to warming on the Antarctic Peninsula as proof of CO2-induced global warming. For in the most incredible manner, warming trends that were once among the highest recorded on earth have slowed and even reversed to show cooling.
in Science of the Total Environment 580: 210-223, 2017 , Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere.
QUELQUES RÉFLEXIONS AUTOUR DE L’ÉNERGIE
by J.P. Bardinet et al., 12 avril 2017
Pour répondre à quelques idées reçues sur l’énergie, à l’heure où cette question est primordiale aux yeux du monde.
Egalement, lien sur Mediapart
New Paper: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Rose 4–5°C Within ‘A Few Decades’ 14,700 Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard , April 2017
According to a new paper, the Bølling Warming event 14,700 years ago raised the surface temperature for the entire Northern Hemisphere by 4 to 5°C within a few decades. This is a hemispheric warming rate of approximately 2.0°C per decade, which is 40 times faster than the 0.05 °C per decade global warming rate since 1850 (and 1998).
The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning
by Hourdin et al., March 2017,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.
Claim: Next 10 years critical for achieving climate change goals
by Anthony Watts, April 13, 2007
Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be reduce in two ways–by cutting our emissions, or by removing it from the atmosphere, for example through plants, the ocean, and soil.
The historic Paris Agreement set a target of limiting future global average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to even further limit the average increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet the timing and details of these efforts were left to individual countries.
Methane seeps in the Canadian high Arctic
by Geological Society of America, April 13, 2017
in ScienceDaily
Cretaceous climate warming led to a significant methane release from the seafloor, indicating potential for similar destabilization of gas hydrates under modern global warming. A field campaign on the remote Ellef Ringnes Island, Canadian High Arctic, discovered an astounding number of methane seep mounds in Cretaceous age sediments.
Afrique du Sud : les enjeux du gaz de schiste
by Professeur François Lafargue, Avril 2017
in Connaissance des Energies
La puissance économique et industrielle de l’Afrique du Sud classe naturellement ce pays au premier rang des consommateurs d’énergie en Afrique. L’Afrique du Sud consomme 30 % de l’énergie primaire et 37 % de l’électricité produites sur le continent africain. Les fréquents dysfonctionnements des infrastructures d’électricité constatés ces dernières années ont placé la question de l’énergie au centre des débats publics.
Michael Mann Adjusts the Climate “Turning Point” Out to 2020
by Eric Worall, April 9, 2017
Professor Michael Mann, inventor of the climate Hockey Stick, has just shamelessly shifted the dreaded climate tipping point to 2020.
Until recently Mann claimed 2016/17 was a climate tipping point.
Reporting bias and the “increase” in weather events in the US
by Alberto Comendador, April 11, 2017
So it appears that the increase is due to improved/expanded reporting, not because there are in fact more tornadoes. This is essentially uncontroversial: NOAA gives a similar explanation on its website, though they get around the observation bias with a different method.
Captage du CO2 : Total investit à nouveau en Norvège
by Connaissances des Energies, 11 Avril 2017
Le groupe français Total a signé le 7 avril un protocole de partenariat avec le Technology Centre de Mongstad (TCM), l’une des plus grandes installations au monde de tests en matière de captage de CO2.
Sun’s impact on climate change quantified for first time
by W. Schmutz, March 27, 2017
For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.
Recent increase in oceanic carbon uptake driven by weaker upper-ocean overturning
by Tim De Vries et al., Nature Feb 9, 2017
Continued weakening of the upper-ocean overturning is likely to strengthen the CO2 sink in the near future by trapping natural CO2 in the deep ocean, but ultimately may limit oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2.
Questions on the rate of global carbon dioxide increase
by Robert Balic, April 7, 2017
Its also a stretch to assume perfect correlation of the real values, especially since its claimed that CO2 levels have increased due to human emissions and the latter have been at a steady rate for the last three years. There is also the question of why such a good correlation with SH sea-surface temperatures and not NH, and why should the correlation be so perfect when things like changes in ocean currents should have a large effect on how much is sequestered into the depths of the oceans.
Incredible images show how Newfoundland town is digging itself out of more than two metres of snow
by Caitrin Pilkington, April 6, 2017
Extraordinary images are now coming from the Newfoundland and Labrador town, where the snow is high enough to cover doors and windows completely. More than 135 cm of snow has fallen on the town of Gander, Nfld., over the past week after it was hit with two back-to-back Nor’easters.
To put that precipitation in perspective, Torontonians can expect around 115 cm of snow in an entire year.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURES DROP TO PRE-EL NINO LEVELS
by Ron Clutz, April 5, 2017
The recent El Nino is cooling down as shown clearly in both sea surface temperatures and lower troposphere air temperatures. The two relevant data sets are UAH v.6 and HadSSTv3.1 now provide averages for the month of March 2017.
Fossil or inorganic structure? Scientists dig into early life forms
by Florida State University, March 15, 2017
New research suggests that inorganic chemicals can self-organize into complex structures that mimic primitive life on Earth.This complicates the identification of Earth’s earliest microfossils and redefines the search for life on other planets and moons.
First macrobiota biomineralization was environmentally triggered
All known Ediacaran skeletal biota produced either aragonite or high-Mg calcite: carbonate polymorphs interpreted to have been favoured by ambient seawater chemistry. Indeed all known Ediacaran skeletal taxa were immobile benthos found exclusively in shallow marine carbonate settings. Finally, we note that Ediacaran skeletal taxa are of diverse affinity, and some possessed a non-mineralized, organic, counterpart, as detailed below
The art of green deception . . . about those record temperatures in Antarctica
by Warren Blair, April 7, 2017
The unusually high Esperanza temperature is likely the result of a strong jet stream that brought a strong ridge of high pressure over the Antarctic Peninsula, allowing warm air from South America to push southwards over Antarctica. Antarctic sea ice was at record-highs in 2014 and again in 2015 when modern records were shattered.
La situation énergétique américaine en chiffres
par Connaissances des Energies, 7 avril 2017
L’EIA américaine a publié récemment ses données officielles relatives à la consommation et à la production d’énergie aux États-Unis en 2016. Elle constate entre autres un recul du charbon dans le mix électrique américain. État des lieux.
Énergies fossiles : 81% de la consommation américaine d’énergie
La consommation d’énergie primaire des États-Unis a été quasiment stable en 2016 (+ 0,1% par rapport à 2015). Les énergies fossiles ont encore compté l’an dernier pour près de 81% de cette consommation (contre 86% en 2005). Le pays a consommé davantage de produits pétroliers dans les transports en 2016, de gaz pour la production d’électricité et dans le secteur industriel mais significativement moins de charbon (- 9%) pour la troisième année consécutive.
Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice
by Q. Ding et al., March 13, 2017, Nature Climate Change
The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. Yet the relationship between Arctic warming and sea-ice loss is not well understood. Here, we present evidence that trends in summertime atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 60% to the September sea-ice extent decline since 1979.
Egalement : Recul de la banquise arctique: 30% à 50% lié à la variabilité naturelle de l’atmosphère