Met Office accused of implausible worst-case climate prediction

by P. Homewood, Mar 9, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The Met Office claims are derived from computer modelling based on the so-called RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the most extreme pathway for global greenhouse gas emissions, which the Met Office misleadingly describes as “plausible”.

In reality, most credible scientists regard RCP8.5 as implausible given that global emissions data and technological advances essentially rule it out. As a result, the Biden Administration has abandoned using this discredited worst-case scenario.
Moreover, the Met Office offers no empirical data in evidence that an increased trend in extreme rainfall events has actually been observed in line with their modelling. In fact some studies suggest the opposite may have occurred in recent decades.

Dr Benny Peiser, the director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, called on the Met Office to withdraw its fatally flawed study:
“The Met Office should withdraw this grossly misleading and baseless study which is undermining its scientific credibility and integrity and makes it look incompetent.”


Additional information about RCP8.5  

* Roger Pilke Jr.: The Biden Administration Abandons RCP8.5
* Anders Bolling: This is how the UN’s worst scenario was normalized and distorted our view of global warming
* Tim Worstall: A Saviour Spurned: How fracking saved us from global warming (pdf)

New Study: Roman And Medieval Warm Periods Were 2.8°C Warmer Than 1970-2000 In Central China

by K. Richard, Mar 13, 2023 in NoTricksZone

A series of paleoclimate lake reconstructions across China in recent years have failed to support the global-scale warming narrative.

Per a new lake temperature reconstruction (Li et al., 2023) from Central China, there were distinct “warm intervals during the RWP [Roman Warm Period] (403–413 CE), with a temperature 2.89°C higher than that of the mean for 1970–2000 CE, and during the MWP [Medieval Warm Period] (864–882 and 965–994 CE), when the temperature was 2.81°C higher.”

There are 8 other lake sediment reconstructions from the region (Qinghai, Gahai, Sugan, Kusai, Tiancai, Heiahi, Lugu, Cuoqia) documented in the study. None of the 8 are shown to have a modern temperature uptick that would support the claims of an unusually warm modern climate relative to past millennia.