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climate-debate

No, BBC, Atlantic Hurricane Season Did Not Break Records

by P. Homewood, Dec 1, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is coming to an end and it has been an active one overall.

There have been 18 named tropical storms, with 11 of those reaching hurricane strength and five becoming major hurricanes – category three and above.

An average season would bring 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Some records have been equalled or broken but the active weather was not spread evenly across the season. In fact the middle of the season, normally the peak, was very quiet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cp87g4p73kxo

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Despite claims of “records broken”, the BBC makes no mention of what these might be!

Unsurprising, because no records were broken, unless you count Beryl which was claimed to be the earliest Cat 5 on record, which has no significance whatsoever.

Instead, although above average, the number of hurricanes and major ones were not exceptional at all.

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climate-debate

Climate Change over the past 4000 Years

by A. May, Dec4, 2024 in WUWT

I last wrote about Climate Change and Civilization for the past 4,000 Years in 2016. Since then, a lot has changed, and I’ve learned a lot more about the subject. First, we learned that various air and sea temperature proxies, such as ice core δ18O or tree rings, are all different. For a discussion of some temperature proxies used and the problems with them, see here. Proxies have different accuracies, they are often sensitive to the temperature of different seasons, and they have different temporal resolutions. Thus, as pointed out by Soon and Baliunas in 2003, they are all local and “cannot be combined into a hemispheric or global quantitative composite.”

The global average surface temperature (GAST) reconstruction relied upon in the IPCC AR6 report was by Kaufman, et al. The authors admit that the average spacing of each temperature (the temporal resolution) is 164 years. Thus, to compare the entire global instrumental temperature record to the proxies in a valid way, one must average all the daily readings since 1860 into one point. That is, the rate of warming since 1860 is irrelevant, the proxy record cannot see a 164-year increase. The problem of comparing daily modern instrumental temperature records to proxies is discussed by Renee Hannon here.

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