Archives mensuelles : janvier 2025

Australia, climate-debate

Australian Heatwave Stories Cop Severe Criticism

by G. Sherrigton, Jan 29, 2025 in WUWT

The daily temperature observations from many Australian weather stations have now been routinely updated by the Bureau of Meteorology, BOM, to the end of year 2024.

Year 2024 has been publicized GLOBALLY as the “hottest year evah!” so it is time to examine how Australia fared. Here, heatwaves are the medium used.

The frequent, accepted chant is that globally, heatwaves are becoming “hotter, longer and more frequent”. This chant is not supported by the following heatwave analysis which examines 10 Australian weather stations with lengthy historic observations. This study has generated 160 graphs that are linked by weather station/city that is the main part of this article for readers to examine.

Here is a snapshot of Adelaide, using only 3-day heatwave examples, 4 graphs out of a possible 16 for Adelaide.

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Some essential points:

  1. A day of missing data can lead to large damage to the calculations, because that 1 day affects 9 other days in the 10-DAY analysis. Therefore, all missing values were infilled, either by a subjective guess in the ballpark of surrounding values, or with the overall average Tmax value for the station. The shortest duration station, Brisbane, has some 50,400 days analyzed, with a few hundred missing values, so the odds of induced error are small. They can be traced.
  2. I have made the Excel commands as simple as possible. No knowledge of macros, programming or even Pivot tables is needed. The invitation is open for you to replicate the methodology for your own locations.
  3. I have not cherry picked the weather stations. Together, these 10 cities/locations house more than 70% of Australian population. This has meaning when planning for heatwaves, such as where to build hospitals and how large to make them.
  4. The chosen cities probably suffer from the temperature distortion of Urban Heat Island effect. There have been transect studies showing UHI in excess of a couple of degrees at times in both Sydney and Melbourne. I have now included two stations unlikely to have been affected by UHI, Cape Leeuwin and Longreach.

The Climate Sciences Use Of The Urban Heat Island Effect Is Pathetic And Misleading – Watts Up With That?

  1. Rebuttal of the misunderstanding that heatwaves are becoming “hotter, longer and more frequent” lacks credibility if actual data are used such s here, for 10 stations in far off Australia. It is hard to maintain that misunderstanding when simple graphs of real data are shown to those who make such claims. I am writing a more detailed analysis of these 160 graphs, should WUWT accept it.
  2. You are encouraged to make similar graphs for regions elsewhere. For heatwaves, they are hard to refute, in contrast with official/IPCC type studies, which usually commence after 1950 and which rely upon arcane definitions of heatwave to arrive at conclusions.
better to know...?, climate-debate

U.N. Confirms Notification Of America’s Exit From Paris Climate Deal

by S. Kent, Jan 29, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

paris eiffel tower
Washington notified the United Nations on Tuesday to confirm it is delivering on a key campaign pledge of President Donald Trump and withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement to put U.S. energy and job growth first. [emphasis, links added]

On his first day back in the White House, Trump announced America would leave the accord, which is managed by the U.N. climate change body.

“In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives,” Trump’s executive order reads.

“Moreover, these agreements steer American taxpayer dollars to countries that do not require, or merit, financial assistance in the interests of the American people.”

Now that moment has moved a step closer, AFP reports.

“I can confirm to you that the United States has notified the secretary-general, in his capacity as a depository, of its withdrawal on January 27 of this year from the Paris agreement,” said Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for U.N. chief Antonio Guterres.

“According to Article 28, paragraph two, of the Paris Agreement, the withdrawal of the United States will take effect on January 27, 2026.”

Trump previously withdrew the United States from the Paris Accord during his first term, as Breitbart News reported.

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See also :  Time To Purge The Climate Scam From Federal Websites

better to know...?, climate-debate

Inconvenient Climate Study Censored

by P. Homewood, Jan 14, 2025 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Another important paper taking issue with the ‘settled’ climate narrative has been cancelled following a report in the Daily Sceptic and subsequent reposts that went viral across social media. The paper discussed the atmospheric ‘saturation’ of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and argued that higher levels will not cause temperatures to rise. The work was led by the widely-published Polish scientist Dr. Jan Kubicki and appeared on Elsevier’s ScienceDirect website in December 2023. The paper has been widely discussed on social media since April 2024 when the Daily Sceptic reported on the findings. Interest is growing in the saturation hypothesis not least because it provides a coherent explanation for why life and the biosphere grew and often thrived for 600 million years despite much higher atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases. Alas for control freaks, it also destroys the science backing for the Net Zero fantasy.

Read the full story here.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

3 More New Drought And Temperature Reconstructions Do Not Support The Climate Alarm Narrative

by K. Richard, Jan 13, 2025 in NoTricksZone

Studies from Central China, Russia, and Central Europe indicate there was just as much (0r more) warming and drought prior to 1900, or when CO2 concentrations were under 300 ppm.

A new 1606 to 2016 Central China winter (minimum) temperature reconstruction (Jiang et al., 2024) reveals cold periods only occurred in 9 years of the 1600s (1663-1672), but there were 71 years of cold periods during the 20th century (1900-1942, 1959-1979, 1985-1994).

Notably, CO2 hovered around 278 ppm during the 1600s and 1700s, but it rose from 290 ppm to 370 ppm during the 1900s.

From 1650-1750 the winter temperatures in Central China were 0.44°C warmer than they were during the 20th century. The authors were surprised by this temperature result, as 1650-1750 falls within the timing of the Little Ice Age.

“Surprisingly, during 1650–1750, the lowest winter temperature within the research area was about 0.44 °C higher than that in the 20th century, which differs significantly from the concept of the ‘cooler’ Little Ice Age during this period. This result is validated by the temperature results reconstructed from other tree-ring data from nearby areas, confirming the credibility of the reconstruction.”

Finally, it should be noted that the year 1719 was 1.4°C warmer (-3.17°C) than the 1961-2016 average (-4.57°C).

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A new 1803-2020 Central Europe precipitation reconstruction (Nagavciuc et al., 2025) determines droughts were more prolonged and pronounced during the 1800s than in the 1900s, as the 1900s were relatively wet. Only one recent period (2007-2020) endured extreme drought, but it did not exceed the severity of the 1818–1835, 1845–1854, 1882–1890 drought years.

 

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pollution-contamination

Ancient Romans likely breathed lead pollution

by T.M. Brown, Jan 6, 2025 in Science

From 27 B.C.E. to 180 C.E., Rome enjoyed a period of relative peace and prosperity, the Pax Romana. It witnessed the beginning of the Roman Empire, the building of the Colosseum, and the expansion of the empire to encompass the entire Mediterranean and much of the British Isles. However, the industrial-scale silver smelting that accompanied such prosperity came with a dark side: lead pollution.

In a study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, scientists for the first time quantified atmospheric levels of this pollutant and found the toxic metal likely led to diminished IQs for many ancient Romans.

“This is certainly a very interesting paper,” says Christopher Loveluck, an archaeologist at the University of Nottingham who was not involved in the study. “Lead emissions in the vicinity of mines and smelting sites by themselves could certainly have had an impact on the cognition and health of surrounding populations, and potentially wider rural populations.”

Today, scientists know that even minor, short-term exposure to lead-contaminated pipes, paints, and toys can lead to heart and cognitive problems, especially in infants and young children. And lead was ubiquitous in ancient Rome, including in ceramics, cosmetics, painted glaze, water pipes, and as a sweetener in wine. Researchers have even argued lead poisoning hastened the downfall of the Roman Empire.

Some Romans recognized its dangers. Pliny the Elder called the white lead powder used in Roman cosmetics a “deadly poison,” says Caleb Finch, a scientist at the University of Southern California who was not involved in the study. But although tooth enamel and skeletal remains testify to lead poisoning among some Romans, scholars have debated how serious a problem it was.

Airborne pollution accounted for much of the exposure, says Joseph McConnell, a research scientist at the Desert Research Institute and lead author of the study. The mining and smelting of silver from a lead-rich mineral called galena releases the toxic metal as a vapor, he says. “For every gram of silver produced, something like 10,000 grams of lead were produced.”

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Met Office Try To Shut Down Debate On Junk Temperature Measurements

by P. Homewood, Jan 7, 2025 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

hris Morrison has the latest on how the Met Office, in league with the green blob, are trying to shut down debate on the junk weather station scandal:

image

After a year of damaging revelations about the state of the Met Office’s temperature measuring network, the Green Blob-funded ‘fact-checker’ Science Feedback has sprung to the defence of the state-funded U.K. weather service. It has published a long ‘fact check’ seeking to exonerate practices that have recently come to light including the locating of stations with huge heat corrupted ‘uncertainties’ and the publication of invented data from 103 non-existent sites. Inept is a word that springs to mind. At one point, Science Feedback justifies the estimation of data at the non-existent stations by referring to the hastily changed Met Office explanation for station/location long-term averages. The original and now deleted Met Office webpage referenced station names and provided single location coordinates including one improbable siting next to the sea on Dover beach. This would appear to be a new low in the world of so-called fact-checking – designating copy as ‘misleading’ based on an explanation changed after the article was published.

Full story here.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

England & Wales Rainfall Trends

by P. Homewood, Jan 8, 2025 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_totals.txt

It does not need me to tell you that it was quite wet last year. It was in fact ninth wettest in England & Wales since 1766, though nowhere near the two wettest years in 1872 and 1768.

For the last decade or so, we have been going through the same sort of weather as in the 1870s and 80s, as well as the 1920s.

But averages and trends are not particularly meaningful – nature does not do averages and straight lines! You could have ten years all with the same rainfall, or you could have five years with high rainfall and five years of drought, and you could get the same average.

If you just look at the distribution of wet years, there is no obvious pattern:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate Bombshell: New Evidence Reveals 30 Year Global Drop in Hurricane Frequency and Power

by C. Morrison, Jan 4, 2025 in DailySceptic

Last month a small but powerful cyclone named Chido made landfall in Mayotte before sweeping into Mozambique, causing considerable damage and leading to the loss of around 100 lives. Days after the tragedy, the Green Blob-funded Carbon Brief noted that scientists have “long suggested” that climate change is making cyclones worse in the region, while Blob-funded World Weather Attribution (WWA) at Imperial College London made a near-instant and curiously precise estimate that a Chido-like cyclone was about 40% more likely to happen in 2024 than during the pre-industrial age. Not to be outdone, Green Blob-funded cheerleader the Guardian chipped in with the obligatory “cyclones are getting worse because of the climate emergency”. Almost unnoticed, it seems, among all the Net Zero dooming and grooming was a science paper published during December by Nature that found no increase in the destructive power of cyclones – the generic term for typhoons and hurricanes – in any ocean basin over the last 30 years. In the South Indian basin, the location of cyclone Chido, there was a dramatic decrease in both frequency and duration in recent times.

Reality rarely gets much of a look-in these days when fanatical Net Zero activism is afoot, but the paper, written by a group of Chinese meteorologists, makes its case by considering the facts and the data. The scientists apply a “power dissipation index” (PDI) which they consider superior to single measure indicators since it combines storm intensity, duration and frequency. The graphs below show the cumulative index for tropical cyclones across all ocean basins along with a global indication.

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climate and geology

Mystery Volcano’ that Lowered Global Temperatures Nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit in 1831 Identified

by L. Eastman, Jan 5, 2025 in WUWT

Whenever I write about climate change, I often note that volcanoes can have significant impacts on the global climate.

A new example has been recently revealed, as a ‘mystery volcano’ that erupted in 1831 and significantly cooled Earth’s climate has finally been identified as Zavaritskii on Simushir Island, part of the Kuril Islands archipelago between Russia and Japan.

This eruption was one of the most powerful of the 19th century, releasing an enormous amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The Earth-caused emissions resulted in a decrease of approximately one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the annual average temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere.

The challenge in locating the volcano was due to its remote location.

While the year of this historic eruption was known, the volcano’s location was not. Researchers recently solved that puzzle by sampling ice cores in Greenland, peering back in time through the cores’ layers to examine sulfur isotopes, grains of ash and tiny volcanic glass shards deposited between 1831 and 1834.

Using geochemistry, radioactive dating and computer modeling to map particles’ trajectories, the scientists linked the 1831 eruption to an island volcano in the northwest Pacific Ocean, they reported Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

..Before the scientists’ findings, Zavaritskii’s last known eruption was in 800 BC.

“For many of Earth’s volcanoes, particularly those in remote areas, we have a very poor understanding of their eruptive history,” said lead study author Dr. William Hutchison, a principal research fellow in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of St. Andrews in the United Kingdom.

“Zavaritskii is located on an extremely remote island between Japan and Russia. No one lives there and historical records are limited to a handful of diaries from ships that passed these islands every few years,” Hutchison told CNN in an email.

To find the volcano, researchers compared the chemistry of microscopic shards of ash extracted from ice cores drilled in Greenland with samples from the Zavaritskii caldera. They determined it was a perfect match.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

UK Temperatures In 2024

by P. Homewood, Jan 5, 2025 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

UK annual temperatures have dropped for the second year running, though the Met Office will emphasise what they claim is a remorseless upwards trend. However they don’t show error margins in their graphs, and as we know, nine out of ten of the weather stations used for their UK temperature dataset are junk or near junk sites, where poor siting can mean temperatures may be overstated by as much as five degrees for Class 5 and two degrees for Class 4:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Central Greenland Was Recently Ice-Free And Covered With Plants When CO2 Was Under 300 ppm

by K. Richard, Jan 3, 2025 in NoTricksZone

Today, with CO2 levels supposedly in the “dangerously high” range, Central Greenland has 3 kilometers of ice piled atop it.

Scientists have known since the GISP2 borehole was drilled in 1993 that Central Greenland deglaciated at least once in the late Pleistocene (Bierman et al., 2024). Indeed, the Summit of the modern Greenland ice sheet was actually ice-free at some point between 250,000 and 1.1 million years ago – which is relatively recent from a geological perspective.

Plants, wood, insects, fungi and other remnants suggestive of vegetation were recovered from the bottom of the boring site. This is quite a contrast to today’s 3000-meters-high ice sheet at this same location.

“The presence of poppy, spike-moss, fungal sclerotia, woody tissue, and insect parts in the GISP2 till shows that tundra vegetation once covered central Greenland, mandating that the island was largely ice-free.”

The atmospheric CO2 concentration is presumed to have ranged between 275 and 290 ppm during the Late Pleistocene, or during this same period when Greenland was ice-free. These sub-300 ppm CO2 levels are thought to be the same as they were from 1700 to 1900 (the Little Ice Age), when, as today, Central Greenland has remained buried in kilometers of ice.

The authors of this study use existing knowledge of Greenland’s climate (for example, Summit’s mean July temperature is -7°C) to calculate how much warmer Central Greenland was “when the ice was gone” during the last 1.1 million years. Controlling for lapse rate, Central Greenland’s average surface air temperatures were likely +3 to 7°C in July when it had no ice sheet.

The atmospheric CO2 concentration thus appears to be largely unrelated to either Greenland’s climate or its state of glaciation.

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climate-debate

UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for December, 2024: +0.62 deg. C

by R. Spencer, Jan 3, 2025 in WUWT

2024 Sets New Record for Warmest Year In Satellite Era (Since 1979)

The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2024 was +0.62 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down slightly from the November, 2024 anomaly of +0.64 deg.

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The Version 6.1 global area-averaged temperature trend (January 1979 through December 2024) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).

As seen in the following ranking of the years from warmest to coolest, 2024 was by far the warmest in the 46-year satellite record averaging 0.77 deg. C above the 30-year mean, while the 2nd warmest year (2023) was +0.43 deg. C above the 30-year mean. [Note: These yearly average anomalies weight the individual monthly anomalies by the number of days in each month.]

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better to know...?

2025 Looks Bleak For Germany…Energy The Most Expensive In Europe …Growing Speech Tyranny

by P. Gosselin, Jan 1, 2025 in NoTricksZone

2025 in Germany will be a year more energy inflation and loss a free speech rights

Effective today, Germany’s CO2 surcharge will rise from 45 euros a tonne to 55 euros, which will further fan inflation and social discontent.

Already Germany’s electricity prices are among the highest in the world, and the most expensive in Europe:

Chart: strom-report.com/ 

Germany clamps down on dissenters, free speech

But 2025 will not be an easy year for dissenters and critics of the government, as this is increasingly being criminalized in Germany thanks to recently passed laws and acts that aim to suppress free speech.

The former head Germany’s Constitution Protection Authority (Bundesverfassungsschutz), Thomas Haldenwang (CDU Party), suggested last February when presenting measures to fight right-wing extremism, that human thoughts and speech patterns need to be under surveillance and become the business of the government: “It’s also about shifting verbal and mental boundaries. We have to be careful that thought and language patterns don’t become embedded in our language.”

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climate-debate

10 Steps Trump Can Take To Restore America’s Energy Dominance

by D. Blackmon, Jan 2, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

President-elect Donald Trump has a big job ahead of him in restoring common sense and sanity to federal energy policy when he takes office on January 20. [emphasis, links added]

The last four years in this realm can more accurately be characterized as a series of ill-considered, irrational scams than as any sort of coherent, productive set of policies.

It has been four years of bad policies — largely based on crass crony capitalism principles — that have done severe damage to America’s level of energy security.

No doubt cleaning up this mess left behind by President Joe Biden and his appointees will take the full four years of Trump’s second term. But the new president will be able to take some fast actions to jump-start the process as part of his first 100-day agenda.

With respect, here is a list of 10 quick common-sense actions Trump can take to begin to restore America’s energy security:

1 — Rescind Biden’s ridiculous permitting “pause” on LNG export infrastructure. Of all the Biden energy policy scams, this was perhaps the most heinous and unjustified of all. Terminate it immediately and get this American growth industry back on track.

2 — Terminate U.S. participation in the Paris Climate Agreement and any future annual COP conferences sponsored by the United Nations. Halt the spending of federal dollars related to any and all goals and commitments related to either of these wasteful processes.

3 — Terminate the office of Senior Advisor to the President for International Climate Policy, aka “the Climate Envoy,” currently occupied by John Podesta, and eliminate its budget.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Wind And Solar: The Hidden Truth Behind Those Rising Electric Bills

by Bjorn Borg, Jan 2, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Green Electricity Really Does Cost A Bundle

As nations use more and more supposedly cheap solar and wind power, a strange thing happens: Our power bills get more expensive. [emphasis, links added]

This exposes the environmentalist lie that renewables have already outmatched fossil fuels and that the “green transition” is irreversible even under a second Trump administration.

The claim that green energy is cheaper relies on bogus math that measures the cost of electricity only when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.

Modern societies need around-the-clock power, requiring backup, often powered by fossil fuels. That means we’re paying for two power systems: renewables and backup.

Moreover, as fossil fuels are used less, those power sources need to earn their capital costs back in fewer hours, leading to even more expensive power.

This means the real energy costs of solar and wind are far higher than what green campaigners claim. One study shows that in China the real cost of solar power on average is twice as high as that of coal.

Similarly, a peer-reviewed study of Germany and Texas shows that solar and wind are many times more expensive than fossil fuels.

Germany, the U.K., Spain, and Denmark, all of which increasingly rely on solar and wind power, have some of the world’s most expensive electricity.

The International Energy Agency’s latest data (from 2022) on solar and wind power generation costs and consumption across nearly 70 countries shows a clear correlation between more solar and wind and higher average household and industry energy prices.

In a country with little or no solar and wind, the average electricity cost is about 12 cents a kilowatt-hour (in today’s money).

For every 10% increase in solar and wind share, the electricity cost increases by more than 5 cents a kilowatt-hour.

This isn’t an outlier; these results are substantially similar to 2019, before the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

For every 10% increase in solar and wind share, the electricity cost increases by more than 5 cents a kilowatt-hour.
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unclassified

Scientists Uncover Cause of 1831 Global Cooling Event That Triggered Crop Failures, Famines

by J. Chadwick, Dec 31, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

It’s been nearly 200 years since a global cold snap led to widespread crop failures and devastating famines. [emphasis, links added]

Now, a new study by scientists at the University of St Andrews finally pinpoints the cause.

The Zavaritskii volcano on the remote, uninhabited Russian island of Simushir, part of the Kuril Islands, erupted in 1831, the experts reveal.

The dramatic event injected volcanic ash into the atmosphere, blocking enough sunlight to induce a brief global cooling period.

The resulting change in weather included reduced rainfall from Africa and India to Japan, causing major famine due to poor crop yields.

‘While scientists have long known that a really big eruption went off in 1831, the source has remained a mystery,’ lead study author Dr Will Hutchison told MailOnline.

Dr Hutchison and his team were able to date and match the ice core deposits to Zavaritskii volcano on the remote, uninhabited island of Simushir. Source: University of St Andrews
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better to know...?

Trump Wants Greenland and the Panama Canal. It’s About Climate.

by L. Friedman, Dec 31, 2024 in TheNewYorkTimes

To imagine the kind of future a hotter, dryer climate may bring, and the geopolitical challenges it will create, look no farther than two parts of the world that Donald Trump wants America to control: Greenland and the Panama Canal.

The president-elect in recent days has insisted that both places are critical to United States national security. He’s called to reclaim control the Panama Canal from Panama and acquire Greenland from Denmark, both sovereign territories with their own governments.

They have something else in common as well: Both are significantly affected by climate change in ways that present looming challenges to global shipping and trade.

Because of warming temperatures, an estimated 11,000 square miles of Greenland’s ice sheets and glaciers have melted over the past three decades, an area roughly equivalent to the size of Massachusetts. That has huge implications for the entire world. If the ice melts completely, Greenland could cause sea levels to rise as much as 23 feet, according to NASA.

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unclassified

Scientists Report A ‘Striking Global Greening Trend’ Over The Last 42 Years

by K. Richard, Dec 30, 2024 in NoTricksZone

The greening of the Earth’s vegetated areas is “attributed to CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land use changes.”

New remote sensing research (Gutiérrez-Hernández and García, 2025) uses robust statistical methods to eliminate false positives and spurious correlations in establishing vegetation trends in the satellite era.

The scientists find 38% of the Earth’s land surface has undergone statistically significant greening or browning trends over the last 42 years (1982-2023). Conventional methods (i.e., Mann-Kendall test) that had previously found 51% of the Earth’s surface experienced statistically significant vegetation trends in the satellite era may overlook crucial factors that produce less accurate, inflated results.

With this new analytical method, the True Significant Trends (TCT) test, the authors have robustly determined there has been a “striking global greening trend” attributed to CO2 fertilization and climate change.

“Applying a new proposed workflow methodology (True Significant Trends, TST) we reveal a striking global greening trend, with a significant portion of the Earth’s terrestrial land surface showing increases in vegetation cover over the past four decades, particularly in Eurasia.”

Specifically, 76.1% to 85.4% of statistically significant vegetation trends indicate greening, whereas browning trends account for 14.7 to 23.9%

“Among these significant trends identified using the TST workflow, 76.07% indicated greening, while 23.93% indicated browning. Notably, considering areas (pixels) with NDVI values above 0.15, greening accounted for 85.43% of the significant trends, with browning making up the remaining 14.57%. These findings strongly validate the ongoing global greening of vegetation.”

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