by V. Jayaraj, Feb 10, 2026 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The repeated claim that climate science is “settled” overlooks myriad uncertainties, competing mechanisms, and computer models that miss the mark when tested against reality. [some emphasis, links added]
Declaring finality in such a field reflects political confidence – even arrogance – not scientific maturity.
The Model-Reality Divergence
Computer models – based on faulty premises – are the bible for the modern climate movement. This, despite the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describing climate as a “coupled, non-linear, chaotic system” where long-term prediction is effectively impossible.
Policies costing trillions of dollars rely entirely on outputs of these digital simulations. But a model is only as good as its assumptions.
When those assumptions fail to match the physical world, an honest scientist discards the model. The climate establishment, instead, discards the data.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) July 2025 report, “Critical Review of Impacts of GHG Emissions on the US Climate,” exposed a hard truth: Fabricated scenarios supposedly representing future warming of the climate are exaggerations having little relationship to observed reality.
Dr Roy Spencer’s latest analysis in January 2026 looked at decadal temperature trends from 39 climate models compared to observations gathered from weather balloons, satellites, and analyses of meteorological information.
He confirmed that “all 39 climate models exhibit larger warming trends” than “observational data.”
Further, theories regarding the global warming potential (GWP) of so-called greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2)ignore the reality of atmospheric saturation, says Dr. William Happer.
At the current concentration of atmospheric CO2, there is only so much infrared radiation left to be influenced by additional amounts of the gas.
In other words, CO2’s warming effect is limited, and increasingly so as more is added. Yet the models assume a higher warming potential than nature exhibits.
Not Your Father’s Volcanic Eruption
The effect of the January 2022 Hunga Tonga underwater eruption exemplifies the climate system’s complexity. The volcano’s net outcome was not the cooling typically expected from such an event, but rather a complex interplay of competing factors that largely offset one another, with the effect on surface temperatures being nearly zero.
This outcome stands in sharp contrast to historical volcanic eruptions. Mount Tambora in 1815 cooled the globe by as much as nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, producing the “Year Without a Summer.”
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