by Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Apr 9, 2026
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ome terminology:
A weak El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area .5-1 °C above normal
A moderate El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area 1-1.5 °C above normal
A strong El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area 1.5-2 °C above normal
A super El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area exceeding 2°C above normal
Predicting El Niño is important because it has a significant impact on the meteorology of the U.S. West Coast and offers the only reliable source of forecasting skill for extended period predictions.
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The bottom line?
We are certainly moving towards El Niño conditions, but I would be careful about assuming that the Super El Niño prediction of the European Center is correct, due to the spring forecast barrier and the larger differences between other modeling system forecasts.