by D. Siegel, Nov 1, 2026 in Clintel
The year is 2078. It is year three of a devastating drought, famine, and extreme heat event around the globe. In the last three years, some two million people have perished. It has already been called the most deadly environmental disaster to ever befall humanity.
It started with the worst drought in more than 800 years. First, there was the La Niña of 2076, which brought dry conditions to the southern United States, Mexico, and India. Then a particularly strong El Niño, in which warm winds blew warm waters west along the Equator for a record 18 months — longer than even the 1998 and 2016 El Niño events. This caused a cold-water upwelling off the coast of Peru that was like winding up a rubber band that snapped in 2077.
You may not have heard of the Indian Ocean Dipole — a temperature oscillation related to and influenced by the Pacific oscillation that causes El Niño. In 2077, the thermal contrast between the two halves of the Indian Ocean was the strongest ever recorded. This led to dry conditions in Australia and South Africa.
In the North Atlantic, another storm was brewing. In 2077, the North Atlantic was the warmest it has ever been — far warmer than the moderate temperatures measured back in the mid-2020s. This dragged moist air northward, parching a large part of Northern Brazil.
In 2077, these three major ocean oscillations all coincided at once to create the hottest, driest conditions ever recorded in India, China, Australia, and South America.
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Could this have been prevented?
You’d think so. You’d think people would have listened. You’d think we could have transitioned from fossil fuels in time to prevent one of the worst disasters of human history.
But you would be wrong.
Because this worldwide heat wave and famine already happened back in 1876–78. Everything I just described took place in the 19th century, long before humans started emitting much CO2. Everything I described is accurate. I just added 200 years to the dates to get your attention.
I know this isn’t what you wanted to hear. I know it isn’t what you’ve been told. It’s important for some people to believe in a bleak future, but here is the data:
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