by D.R. Legates, Nov 20, 2025 in WUWT

An article by Nadir Jeevanjee, a Research Physical Scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), recently published in The Conversationand reprinted by Space.Com, suggests that climate models are being given a bad rap. It cites a recent Department of Energy report as using the complexity of climate models as the primary reason why these models cannot be trusted. The article protests, “But the history of climate science tells a different story” because early climate models were instrumental in shaping our understanding of the Earth’s climate.

Okay, let’s revisit history—because those who can’t remember history correctly are destined to get it wrong.

First, we need to get one fact correct. The recent Department of Energy report did not simply cite the complexity of climate models as the primary reason they cannot be trusted. It goes into detail as to why current climate models cannot be trusted: namely, they cannot reproduce current conditions.

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For example, models are not capable of determining the equilibrium climate sensitivity to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. As shown in this graph from the DOE report, they tend to “run hot,” or overstate surface warming.

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