The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change.
As the root of this neglect lie two fundamental problems. Solar variability is quite small (about 0.1% of total irradiation), and there is no generally accepted mechanism by which the solar variability signal could be amplified by the climate system
The theory goes that over time CO2 increases resulting in an increase in temperature, put another way, temperature is a function of CO2, or T=f(CO2). This model, however, is deeply flawed and demonstrates a disturbing ignorance of science, modeling, and the physics behind the greenhouse gas effect.
By convention, climate is usually defined as the average of meteorological parameters over a period of 30 years. How can we use the available temperature data, intended for weather monitoring and forecasting, to characterize climate? The approach currently used is to calculate the arithmetic mean for an arbitrary base period, and subtract modern temperatures (either individual temperatures or averages) to determine what is called an anomaly. However, just what does it mean to collect all the temperature data and calculate the mean?
The Bossier and Haynesville Formations of the onshore and State waters portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast contain estimated means of 4.0 billion barrels of oil, 304.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 1.9 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, according to updated assessments by the U.S. Geological Survey. These estimates, the largest continuous natural gas assessment USGS has yet conducted, include petroleum in both conventional and continuous accumulations, and consist of undiscovered, technically recoverable resources.
Writing as background for their work, Ventura et al. (2016) say that “non-calcifying photosynthetic anthozoans have emerged as a group that may thrive under high carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) conditions via increased productivity,” yet they add that “the physiological mechanisms underlying this potential success are unclear.”
There is as yet no observational evidence that climate sensitivity increases with time in the real climate system – although this cannot be ruled out – nor is it fully understood why it increases in most AOGCMs. In any event, even if real-world climate sensitivity does increase with time, in the longer run other factors that are not reflected in ECS, such as melting ice sheets, are probably more important. Therefore, while time-varying climate sensitivity is of considerable interest from a theoretical point of view, for practical purposes its influence is likely to be very modest.
The Arctic is the most sensitive place to man-made emissions on Earth, which is why it has barely warmed since 1944? Well, it makes sense if CO2 is largely irrelevant. Humans have made 90% of all their CO2 in the last 70 years and nothing much happened in the place where it was supposed to hurt the most.
Looking at data objectively, it is pretty clear that there is little relationship between weather/climate and the rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, as the global warming pause between 1997-2016 shows –
L’acidification n’est pas une simple réponse statique à l’augmentation de la concentration de CO2 dans l’atmosphère : c’est la résultante de processus biologiques et physico-chimiques qui entraînent une répartition inégale du carbone sur la verticale de l’océan. D’autre part la vie océanique a survécu à des niveaux beaucoup plus élevés de CO2 depuis des millions d’années dans le passé.
The clear link between mortality and sea level fall also calls for a refinement of the hierarchy of El Niño impacts and their consequences on coral reefs.
L’ Agence Internationale de l’Énergie (AIE) a élaboré plusieurs scénarios de l’évolution prévisible du mix énergétique d’ici 2035. Le scénario moyen (« New policies scenario ») met en évidence l’augmentation de la demande en énergie primaire, qui passe de 13 000 Mtep en 2011 à 17 400 en 2035. La part des énergies fossiles (pétrole, gaz, charbon) restera largement dominante : elle passerait de 81 % en 2011 à 76 % en 2035. Les énergies renouvelables (y compris hydraulique et biomasse) seront en croissance : de 13 % en 2011 à 18 % en 2035
by Judith Curry, March 29, 2017, Professor, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta
Prior to 2010, I felt that supporting the IPCC consensus on human-caused climate change was the responsible thing to do. That all changed for me in November 2009, following the leaked Climategate emails, that illustrated the sausage making and even bullying that went into building the consensus.. (also, see .pdf)
by Olivier Appert, Président du Conseil Français de l’Energie, Avril 2017 in Connaissance des Energies
Il faut se rappeler qu’une innovation est une invention qui a trouvé son marché. Il est vrai que la technologie peut tout ou presque à condition de ne pas aller à l’encontre des lois scientifiques. Mais baser le déploiement d’une technologie sur des subventions publiques durables n’est assurément pas durable!
German-Canadian research team discovers new ore-forming process in ancient marine sedimentary basin
20 April 2017/Kiel. The Witwatersrand basin in South Africa hosts the largest known gold repository on Earth – but how was it formed? Scientists of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre of Ocean Research Kiel and Canadian research institutes were able to figure out how parts of the Earth’s largest gold deposits formed about three billion years ago. Crude oil and hot hydrothermal fluids played a major role. This study has been currently published in the journal “Precambrian Research“
The 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill did $17.2 billion in damage to the natural resources in the Gulf of Mexico, a team of scientists recently found after a six-year study of the impact of the largest oil spill in US history.
This is the first comprehensive appraisal of the financial value of the natural resources damaged by the 134-million-gallon spill.
Anyone who has studied the history of science knows that scientists are not immune to the non-rational dynamics of the herd.
This week’s March for Science is odd. Marches are usually held to defend something that’s in peril. Does anyone really think big science is in danger? The mere fact that the March was scheduled for Earth Day betrays what the event is really about: politics.
by By Julio Slingo, published in the Financial Times, 13 April 2017, Julia Slingo is the former chief scientist of the Met Office,
in WUWT, Anthony Watts
Last December, I retired after nearly eight years as Met Office chief scientist. It was a pleasure and privilege to lead one of the best environmental research organisations in the world at a time when, more than ever, we depend on skilful, comprehensive predictions of the weather, climate and the broader environment.
The University of Iowa volcanologist spent her days collecting samples from a volcano on Tanna, an island in the remote South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu. The volcano, called Yasur, spews out flaming masses or “bombs” – some the size of a small car.
“This has real health implications,” Ukstins says. “It means more than simply studying volcanoes.”
In summary, there are numerous data handling practices, which climatologists generally ignore, that seriously compromise the veracity of the claims of record average-temperatures, and are reflective of poor science. The statistical significance of temperature differences with 3 or even 2 significant figures to the right of the decimal point is highly questionable. One is not justified in using the approach of calculating the Standard Error of the Mean to improve precision, by removing random errors, because there is no fixed, single value that random errors cluster about. The global average is a hypothetical construct that doesn’t exist in Nature. Instead, temperatures are changing, creating variable, systematic-like errors. Real scientists are concerned about the magnitude and origin of the inevitable errors in their measurements.
The Dutch toilet cleaner ‘WC-EEND’ (literally: ‘Toilet Duck’) aired a famous commercial in 1989 that had the slogan ‘We from WC-EEND advise… WC-EEND’. It is now a common saying in The Netherlands whenever someone gives an opinion that is clearly aligned with their self-interest. In this blog, I will examine the hypothesis that blogs are, on average, of higher quality than journal articles. Below, I present 5 arguments in favor of this hypothesis. [EDIT: I’m an experimental psychologist. Mileage of what you’ll read below may vary in other disciplines].
A l’origine de la révolution industrielle, le charbon demeure au XXIe siècle une énergie privilégiée dans le monde. Il permet d’assurer les besoins énergétiques de l’équivalent de presque un homme sur trois (le charbon satisfait 29% de la consommation d’énergie finale en 2012 selon l’AIE). Il est la première source d’énergie utilisée pour produire de l’électricité (environ 40% de l’électricité mondiale est produite à partir de charbon).
Studies of bones from Ice Age megafaunal animals across Eurasia and the Americas have revealed that major increases in environmental moisture occurred just before many species suddenly became extinct around 11-15,000 years ago. The persistent moisture resulting from melting permafrost and glaciers caused widespread glacial-age grasslands to be rapidly replaced by peatlands and bogs, fragmenting populations of large herbivore grazers.
The idea of moisture-driven extinctions is really exciting because it can also explain why Africa is so different, with a much lower rate of megafaunal extinctions and many species surviving to this day, says Professor Cooper.
China’s natural gas production surged to a record last month and coal output rebounded as economic growth accelerated power use in the world’s largest energy user.
Natural gas production in March rose 8.2 percent from the average of the first two months of the year to a record 13.6 billion cubic meters, according to data Monday from the National Bureau of Statistics. Coal output rose almost 13 percent over the same period to average 9.67 million tons a day, the highest daily level since December, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the data.
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse