Archives mensuelles : décembre 2024

better to know...?, climate-debate

Recent Temperature Falls Likely to Put a Dampener on ‘Hottest Year Evah’ Stories

by C. Morrison, Dec 28, 2024 in TheDailySceptic

Stand by for another bout of ‘Hottest Year Evah’ stories as the mainstream media pursues its campaign to induce mass climate psychosis and prepare the ground for the oncoming Net Zero catastrophe. Alas, enjoy it only a little while longer since this story may have to be retired after putting in such a sterling propaganda shift. Global temperatures are falling like a stone, while the oceans are cooling at a remarkably rapid rate. In the U.K., the year is likely to show a second annual temperature fall since the alleged ‘record’ year in 2022.

Only last May, Matt McGrath and Justin Rowlatt at the BBC were claiming that “fuelled by climate change” the world’s oceans had broken temperature records every single day over the past year. Planet-warming gases were said to be “mostly to blame”. Three days were singled out when the previous highs were beaten by 0.34°C. Inexplicably, the story, a matter it might be thought of some ongoing concern, was not followed up. The graph below, compiled from data supplied by the U.S. weather service NOAA, might help explain why.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Habitat Destruction Offsets for “Renewables” are just Indulgences

by D. Wojick, Dec 28, 2024 in WUWT

A bad idea is emerging in the “renewables” world, namely that projects can buy their way out of destroying natural habitats. The wind and solar projects still destroy the natural habitats they are built on but they fund a magic wand that somehow supposedly creates new compensating habitat someplace else. Not really.

The fallacy here is that every acre in America already has a habitat. You can change an acre’s habitat from one form to another but not create one. It is a zero sum game.

There is a long standing, highly specialized development offset program that helps make the point. This is wetlands protection under section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Wetlands are deemed to be so special that filling one in for development can be offset by creating one someplace else.

But if you convert dry land to wetland you have destroyed the dry land habitat. So the amount of habitat destruction is not reduced, just the amount of wetland destruction.

The supposed renewables habitat destruction offset does nothing like the 404 program. The renewables developer simply pays to have habitat created someplace else which is impossible. For reference these programs are often called Biodiversity Offsetting which sounds nice.

Such a program might create habitat somewhere that matches that destroyed by the renewables project but that requires destroying the present habitat of the offset site. For example creating a woodland by destroying a grassland. Or vice versa, bulldozing a forest to create a grassland. This might even mean destroying farmland.

Clearly this is nonsense. It is a form of indulgences, which means paying for sin, in this case the sin of habitat destruction. Because solar and wind certainly destroy the habitat they are developed on.

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unclassified

Climate Alarmists Push AMOC Collapse AND Greenland Ice Collapse

by E. Worrall, Dec 28, 2024 in WUWT

Two for the price of one? The weather will be record cold with melting ice.

Climate change is the worst. Here’s just how bad it got this year.

By Hannah Osborne

The big news in Earth science this year was all about climate change, with extreme weather, flooding and drought attributed to warming. Scientists also warned about much worse to come if we don’t rein in carbon emissions.

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Climate change devastation edging closer

But some of the scariest news about the planet isn’t what happened this year but rather what could occur if we don’t stop spewing carbon into the atmosphere. A study published in June suggested ecological tipping points — such as the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the transformation of the Amazon rainforest into savanna — could be reached in just 15 years if climate change isn’t controlled.

In October, scientists penned an open letter warning about the risk posed by the collapse of a key Atlantic current. In it, researchers urged policymakers to address the threat posed by the weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — a giant ocean conveyor belt that transports heat to the Northern Hemisphere, and the breakdown of which could cause temperatures across Europe to plummet.

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Read more: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change-is-the-worst-heres-just-how-bad-it-got-this-year

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climate-debate

New Study Finds 1970s-Present Antarctic Ice Loss Is ‘Unexceptional’ And Not Due To ‘Climate Change’

by K. Richard, Dec 26, 2024 in NoTricksZone

Ice shelf collapse was much more pronounced and exceptional millennia ago than it has been over the last 47 years.

The advent of post-1970s “climate change” and polar amplification due to the rapidly rising trend in human greenhouse gas emissions was supposed to unleash catastrophic ice calving losses and increases in iceberg size throughout the Earth’s cryosphere.

But a new analysis (MacKie et al., 2024) indicates the size of Antarctic icebergs breaking off from the ice sheet has, contrary to popular assumption, slightly declinedsince 1976. Calving events in recent decades therefore cannot even be conclusively attributed to climate change. Instead, they are representative of what occurs naturally.

“…our results reveal that extreme calving events should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of ice shelf instability, but are instead representative of the natural cycle of calving front advance and retreat.”

Over the last 47 years (1976-2023) calving events peaked during the period from 1986 to 2000. Even so, the largest of the modern icebergs calved from Antarctica’s coastal ice shelves were still four times smaller than what would occur with an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.

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climate-debate

New Study: Warming Trend Since 2013 From Increased Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not CO2

by K. Richard, Dec 26, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The 2013-2022 warming trend and the extreme warmth in 2023 were “not associated with” declining outgoing long-wave radiation induced by rising greenhouse gases. [emphasis, links added]

Instead, a new study published in the journal Science contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR, or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W/m²/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively) explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth’s surface, warming it.)

A rising trend in anthropogenic greenhouse gases was supposed to reduce the Earth’s outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), and a declining OLR was thought to be the driver of modern warming.

Instead, the opposite has occurred. There has been an increasing OLR trend since 2013.

This enhancement of the Earth’s OLR trend actually serves to counteract the ASR-induced warming strongly associated with the aforementioned declining cloud cover albedo.

In other words, the total greenhouse effect impact from rising greenhouse gases has recently been contributing to a reduction in global warming, partially offsetting the warming induced by rising ASR.

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better to know...?

Merry Christmas! And Though We’ve Seen Some Brutal Years, Things Are Really Looking Up For 2025

by  P. Gosselin, Dec 24, 2024 in WUWT

There’s no question that Germans and Europeans are much worse off than they’ve been in a very long time.

This has been due to incompetent, ideological leadership shadowy and global puppeteers. Fortunately their days may soon be numbered, as 2025 offers many rays of hope. 

I’ve actually found myself longing for the days when climate change was one of the biggest issues we supposedly were facing – before Corona.

Since then, things has deteriorated markedly in Germany, causing concerns about climate to fade. Now nobody even cares about it. Germans and Europeans have long since been redirected to real, undeniable threats:

  • economic woes
  • falling living standards
  • inflation
  • energy supply bottlenecks
  • deindustrialization
  • loss of democracy
  • growing restrictions
  • curtailment of freedom of expression
  • heightening war in Ukraine
  • uncontrolled immigration
  • skyrocketing crime rates
  • elevated terror threat
  • state-propaganda media
climate-debate

Science Shock: CO2 is Good for the Planet, Peer-Reviewed Studies Suggest

by C. Morrison, Dec 24, 2024 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat

Dramatic evidence has been published in a number of recent science papers that carbon dioxide levels are already ‘saturated’, meaning little or no further warming is to be expected and rising CO2 levels are all beneficial.

Half of human emissions are being quickly pushed back into the biosphere, the scientists say, causing substantial, famine-busting plant growth, while the rest is entering a ‘saturated’ atmosphere and having a minimal effect on global temperatures. One of the papers accepting the human involvement in rising CO2is published by the CO2 Coalition, which notes: “We like CO2, so should you.”

None of this work will be reported in the mainstream since it disrupts a ‘settled’ climate science narrative tied to the political Net Zero fantasy. But the opinion that humans control the climate thermostat by releasing CO2, leading to runaway temperatures, belongs to a dark period in science when it was captured to promote political aims. However, work continues in sceptical climate circles to understand how a number of gases with warming properties behave in a chaotic, non-linear atmosphere. Two recently-published papers found that doubling CO2 in the atmosphere led to minimal temperature increases. The calculated figures can be considered to be in margin of error territory and on past observational evidence they pose no threat to the climate on Earth. They also destroy the shaky scientific foundation upon which Net Zero rests.

Eight Taiwanese scientists led by Professor Peng-Sheng Wei found that the sensitivity of the climate to a rise in CO2 atmospheric levels from 100 to 400 parts per million (ppm) was “negligibly small” at 0.3°C. The paper is complex and examines heat transfers as a function of longitude, latitude and altitude “as well as diffuse radiation determined by absorption bands based on wavelength, temperature and the concentration or pressure of carbon dioxide vapour”. What the scientists are looking at here is the narrow absorption bands within the infrared (IR) spectrum that allow ‘greenhouse’ gases to trap heat and warm the planet. Many argue that after a certain level the gases ‘saturate’ and lose most of their warming properties. One simple way to understand this is to observe that doubling insulation in a loft will not trap twice as much heat. The saturation hypothesis would appear to explain how CO2 has been 10-15 times higher in the past without runaway temperatures, while the anthropogenic warming opinion does little more than provide scientific cover for a dodgy but fashionable extreme eco scare.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claims a climate sensitivity number based on doubling CO2 levels of around 3°C. But many climate models ramp up mass public hysteria by using ‘pathways’ with much larger and highly improbably estimates. The latter form the basis of numerous ‘scientists say’ stories faithfully reported by unquestioning mainstream media. The Taiwanese scientists found that ground temperature warming of 0.3°C was associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm and there was no additional warming at all as CO2 rose further from 350 ppm to 400 ppm. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 420 ppm.

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climate-debate

A New Study Finds Doubling CO2 Leads To 0.5°C Warming At Most

by K. Richard, Dec 23, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

earth space green

The evidence that rising CO2 concentrations lead to inconsequential warming keeps piling up. [emphasis, links added]

In a new study, seven Viennese researchers provide more evidence the CO2 absorption band is already saturated at today’s concentrations (over 400 ppm).

Rising CO2 levels thus cannot drive significant global warming:

“Data from ground measurements indicate that the downward (backward) radiation of the atmosphere shows indeed full saturation of the IR CO2 bands and does not support noticeable additional Thermal Forcing (TF) by increasing CO2 in the lower atmosphere.”

“…we can expect full saturation already at current concentrations.”

As Table 2 from the study indicates, doubling CO2 from preindustrial levels (280 to 560 ppm) increases global mean infrared absorption by just 1.1% (82.1% vs. 83.2%).

This is an indicator of the decreasing effectiveness of CO2 as a warming agent as its concentration rises.

Indeed, a 400 to 800 ppm increase “shows no measurable increase in the IR absorption for the 15 μ-central peak,” and thus it can lead to just 0.5°C warming at most.

Read more at No Tricks Zone

better to know...?, climate and geology

The Fairy Tale Of The CO2 Paradise Before 1850…A Look At The Real Science

by P. Gosselin, Dec 15, 2024 in NoTricksZone

Was the Earth’s biosphere really in a largely stable CO2 balance before 1850? (Almost) all politicians, scientists from all climate disciplines, the media and international big business are telling us in unison that we are destroying the global climate and that the world is on the brink of extinction. By burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, we are supposedly emitting too much CO2. This gas is blamed to act as a “greenhouse gas” that traps heat in the atmosphere. We supposedly face the threat of runaway global warming if we do not completely stop burning fossil fuels within the next 25 years.

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The IPCC’s CO2 hypothesis is scientifically untenable

The entire climate catastrophe construct of the IPCC and its representatives stands and falls with the assertion that the “greenhouse gas” CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere for a long time and thus endangers the earth’s thermal balance. This is why those responsible are trying to conceal the fact that considerable quantities of CO2 are permanently stored away as lime in the ocean through natural processes – for many millions of years. They are particularly embarrassed by the fact that these mechanisms have been taking place in the ocean for eons and that large quantities of CO2 are stored in rocks. There must therefore also be correspondingly large sources of CO2 replenishment in nature. This means that the IPCC’s entire CO2 cycle model collapses. This is probably the reason why oceanic calcification is not correctly represented in official and authoritative documents such as the IPCC report on “The Physical Science Base” or the Global Carbon Project. Also, Henry’s Law is not even mentioned in either of the publications cited here. This blatant suppression of essential scientifically proven facts is the Achilles heel of the entire green climate catastrophe ideology. In commercial terms, one could also speak of balance fraud. Anyone who has doubts about the IPCC’s point of view should ask for these facts to be thoroughly questioned.

Sources:

better to know...?, climate-debate

Ocean Temperatures and Climate Hysteria: A Lesson in Perspective

by C. Rotter, Dec 20, 2024 in WUWT

For the past two years, headlines, policy statements, and social media feeds have been flooded with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every uptick in the graphs was treated as irrefutable proof of humanity’s march toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offered little room for nuance, and as usual, the loudest voices declared the end was nigh. But a recent tweet from Javier Viños, supported by a graph of global sea surface temperatures (SST), reminds us how quickly climate “emergencies” dissolve when confronted with even the faintest hint of natural variability.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Study Debunks Media’s Iceberg Alarmism: Antarctic Calving ‘Statistically Unexceptional’

by A. Watt,  Dec 20, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

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The climate chicken littles of the media blamed it on climate change then, but today, it looks like an Emily Litella moment has just occurred, as a new peer-reviewed scientific study says it wasn’t anything abnormal, nor should we worry about it.

The new study published in Geophysical Research Letters tosses ice-cold water on those overhyped media claims.

In the study, MacKie et al. (2024) analyzed 47 years of observational satellite data from Antarcticaand found that there has been no trend in annual Antarctic maximum calving size between 1976 and 2023.

The key findings of the study are:

  • There has been no detectable upward trend in the annual maximum iceberg area in Antarctica since 1973, based on satellite measurements.
  • The break-off of Iceberg A-68 from the Larsen C Ice Shelf was not statistically notable.
  • Calving events several times larger than anything observed in the modern record could occur, and still, it would not necessarily be due to climate change.

To be clear, the calving of the A-68 iceberg was “statistically unexceptional” in the historical satellite record. Let that sink in. The authors write:

This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A-68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.

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climate-debate

Another Climate Sensitivity Study Finds Doubling CO2 Leads To 0.5°C Warming At Most

by K. Richard, Dec 20, 2024 in NoTricksZone

The evidence that rising CO2 concentrations lead to inconsequential warming keeps piling up.

In a new study, seven Viennese researchers provide more evidence the CO2 absorption band is already saturated at today’s concentrations (over 400 ppm). Rising CO2 levels thus cannot drive significant global warming.

“Data from ground measurements indicate that the downward (backward) radiation of the atmosphere shows indeed full saturation of the IR CO2 bands and does not support noticeable additional Thermal Forcing (TF) by increasing CO2 in the lower atmosphere.”

“…we can expect full saturation already at current concentrations.”

As Table 2 from the study indicates, doubling CO2 from pre-industrial levels (280 to 560 ppm) increases global mean infrared absorption by just 1.1% (82.1% vs. 83.2%). This is an indicator of the decreasing effectiveness of CO2 as a warming agent as its concentration rises.

Indeed, a 400 to 800 ppm increase “shows no measurable increase in the IR absorption for the 15 μ-central peak,” and thus it can lead to just 0.5°C warming at most.

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better to know...?, climate and geology

Rising Seas? No, 3 Dozen S. Florida High-Rises Sinking From Land Subsidence

by Geology, New Science, Dec 18, 2024 in ClimatChangeDispatch

miami beach high rises

Top photo by Ryan Parker on Unsplash

Almost three dozen high-rise condos and luxury hotels along the beach in South Florida are sinking or settling in unexpected ways, in some cases because of nearby construction, according to a new study. [emphasis, links added]

The 35 buildings surveyed along an almost 12-mile (19-kilometer) stretch from Miami Beach to Sunny Isles Beach have sunk or settled by 0.8 to 3.1 inches (2 to 8 cm).

About half of the buildings are less than a decade old, according to scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

The study was published on Friday.

“The discovery of the extent of subsidence hotspots along the South Florida coastline was unexpected,” Farzaneh Aziz Zanjani, the lead author, said in a statement. “The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and a deeper understanding of the long-term implications for these structures.”

It’s not uncommon for buildings to sink a little during and soon after construction, but the scientists called their discovery surprising because some of the changes took place several years later.

Limestone under the South Florida beach is interspersed with layers of sand, which can shift under the weight of high-rises and as a result of vibrations from foundation construction.Tidal flows also play a role.

The study used satellite images to capture the changes, with settling most noticeable in buildings in Sunny Isles Beach.

The scientists said preliminary data also suggests sinking or settling further north, along the beaches of Broward and Palm Beach counties.

The stretch of South Florida communities surveyed included Surfside, where the Champlain Towers South building collapsed in June 2021, killing 98 people.

However, that collapse is thought to have been caused by reinforced concrete that deteriorated due to poor maintenance and flawed design.

better to know...?, climate-debate, energy and fields

IEA Report: Global Coal Demand To Hit Record High In 2024, Defying Predictions Of Decline

by  R. Bryce , Dec 18, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The International Energy Agency has been consistent — and consistently wrong — about global coal demand. [emphasis, links added]

In 2015, the Paris-based agency declared, “The golden age of coal in China seems to be over.” That year, it predicted global coal demand would fall to 5.5 billion tons by 2020.

In its 2017 World Energy Outlook, the IEA said, “China remains a towering presence in coal markets, but our projections suggest that coal use peaked in 2013 and is set to decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040.”

In 2020, the agency said, “Looking ahead to 2025, coal demand is expected to flatten.” It continued,

“Unless there are unforeseen developments that significantly boost coal demand in emerging Asian economies and China, it is likely that global coal demand peaked in 2013 at just over 8B tons.”

Wrong. Wrong. And wrong again.

Today, the IEA released its Coal 2024 report, which says global coal use will grow by another 1% this year to an all-time high of 8.77 billion tons.

The agency also reports that:

“coal demand, production, coal-fired generation, and international coal trade will surpass records reached in 2023 to set new all-time records.”

And here’s the key line:

“The power sector has been the main driver of coal demand growth, with electricity generation from coal set to reach an all-time high of 10,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024.”

Why does this matter? Electricity is the form of energy we crave more than any other. Electricity drives modernity and economic growth.

Primary trade flows in the thermal coal market in 2022 and 2023. Note that most of the arrows point to China and India. Source IEA Coal 2024.
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climate-debate

‘No Measurable Effect’: Study Finds ‘Net Zero’ Emissions Would Have Negligible Climate Impact

by K. Richard, Dec 16, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

net zero
Cost-benefit analyses affirm it would be better to abandon Net Zero policy initiatives and instead “do nothing” about greenhouse gas emissions. [emphasis, links added]

New research finds that CO2’s largest possible climate impact is “negligible.”

The cumulative expected temperature change in doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 PPM is only 0.81°C at most, and this is “certainly not cause for alarm or for declaring a climate emergency”.

As Figure 1 from the paper shows [pictured below], the temperature effects of increasing CO2 are strongest when concentrations hover below 100 PPM.

After that, the CO2 impact collapses logarithmically to less than 0.05°C even as concentrations rise to 900 PPM.

Using heat-transfer calculations, it is estimated that even if governments across the world were to actually achieve all of their proposed Net Zero policy goals, it would only elicit a 0.28°C reduction in global temperature.

In other words, it would have “no measurable effect” on climate.

The tens of trillions in costs to achieve an inconsequential global temperature reduction would be much better spent on policies that would improve the economic, health, and educational conditions of those living in poverty.

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climate-debate

Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS

by A. May, Dec 17, 2024 in WUWT

The IPCC and the climate “consensus” believe that essentially all warming since 1750 is due to man’s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases as shown in figure 1 here or in (IPCC, 2021, p. 961). This has led to a 45-year search for the value of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to the doubling of CO2 (“ECS” in °C per 2xCO2). Yet, after spending 45 years trying to calculate the sensitivity of climate to man-made greenhouse gases, the “consensus” has been unable to narrow the uncertainty in their estimates and, if anything, the climate model uncertainty is now larger than in earlier reports(IPCC, 2021, p. 927). It is now clear, at least to me, that modern climate models make many critical assumptions that are poorly supported and sometimes conflict with observations. This is an attempt to explain some of these problems and how they developed over time. It is long past time for the “consensus” to stop ignoring the obvious weaknesses in their 60-year old conceptual model of climate.

The Early Models

Syukuro Manabe built the first general circulation climate model with several colleagues in the 1960s (Manabe & Bryan, 1969) and (Manabe & Wetherald, 1967). He started with a one-dimensional radiative equilibrium model of horizontally averaged temperature but realized that the troposphere was not in radiative equilibrium because of convection. The lower atmosphere is nearly opaque to most surface emitted infrared radiation or Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) because of greenhouse gases. As a result, Earth’s surface is not cooled much by emitting radiation but instead mostly by the evaporation of surface water that carries surface heat into the atmosphere as latent heat inside water vapor. Water vapor is less dense than dry air, so it rises. Once the water vapor is high enough, it cools as the surrounding air pressure drops allowing air parcels to expand, causing the water vapor to condense which releases its latent heat. If this is done at a high enough altitude, some of the latent heat can make it to space as radiation or make it to surrounding greenhouse gas molecules higher in the atmosphere. The rest of the released heat simply warms the neighborhood. This process is called the “moist adiabat.”

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climate-debate

No, BBC, Atlantic Hurricane Season Did Not Break Records

by P. Homewood, Dec 1, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is coming to an end and it has been an active one overall.

There have been 18 named tropical storms, with 11 of those reaching hurricane strength and five becoming major hurricanes – category three and above.

An average season would bring 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Some records have been equalled or broken but the active weather was not spread evenly across the season. In fact the middle of the season, normally the peak, was very quiet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cp87g4p73kxo

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Despite claims of “records broken”, the BBC makes no mention of what these might be!

Unsurprising, because no records were broken, unless you count Beryl which was claimed to be the earliest Cat 5 on record, which has no significance whatsoever.

Instead, although above average, the number of hurricanes and major ones were not exceptional at all.

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climate-debate

Climate Change over the past 4000 Years

by A. May, Dec4, 2024 in WUWT

I last wrote about Climate Change and Civilization for the past 4,000 Years in 2016. Since then, a lot has changed, and I’ve learned a lot more about the subject. First, we learned that various air and sea temperature proxies, such as ice core δ18O or tree rings, are all different. For a discussion of some temperature proxies used and the problems with them, see here. Proxies have different accuracies, they are often sensitive to the temperature of different seasons, and they have different temporal resolutions. Thus, as pointed out by Soon and Baliunas in 2003, they are all local and “cannot be combined into a hemispheric or global quantitative composite.”

The global average surface temperature (GAST) reconstruction relied upon in the IPCC AR6 report was by Kaufman, et al. The authors admit that the average spacing of each temperature (the temporal resolution) is 164 years. Thus, to compare the entire global instrumental temperature record to the proxies in a valid way, one must average all the daily readings since 1860 into one point. That is, the rate of warming since 1860 is irrelevant, the proxy record cannot see a 164-year increase. The problem of comparing daily modern instrumental temperature records to proxies is discussed by Renee Hannon here.

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