by K. Richard, Dec 26, 2024 in NoTricksZone

Ice shelf collapse was much more pronounced and exceptional millennia ago than it has been over the last 47 years.

The advent of post-1970s “climate change” and polar amplification due to the rapidly rising trend in human greenhouse gas emissions was supposed to unleash catastrophic ice calving losses and increases in iceberg size throughout the Earth’s cryosphere.

But a new analysis (MacKie et al., 2024) indicates the size of Antarctic icebergs breaking off from the ice sheet has, contrary to popular assumption, slightly declinedsince 1976. Calving events in recent decades therefore cannot even be conclusively attributed to climate change. Instead, they are representative of what occurs naturally.

“…our results reveal that extreme calving events should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of ice shelf instability, but are instead representative of the natural cycle of calving front advance and retreat.”

Over the last 47 years (1976-2023) calving events peaked during the period from 1986 to 2000. Even so, the largest of the modern icebergs calved from Antarctica’s coastal ice shelves were still four times smaller than what would occur with an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.

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