Archives par mot-clé : Hydrocarbon

Another Failed Energy Prediction: Peak Oil Demand

by David Middleton, March 11, 2019 in WUWT


Jude Clemente’s energy articles on Real Clear Energy and Forbes are always worth reading.

Key takeaways:

  1. Major oil company (particularly European majors) predictions of a near-term peak in oil demand are 99.999% driven by politics and the need to appease the investment community.
  2. According to baseball legend, the late, great Yogi Berra, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” So, make sure your timeline is long enough to evade having to take responsibility for failed predictions.
  3. Malthuisan predictions have a 100% track record of being wrong.
  4. As these United States become a net exporter of crude oil in the near future, we will have no problem finding customers.

Here are the graphs from Mr. Clemente’s article:

Figure 2. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2019 global petroleum liquids demand forecast.

Energy Prices Falling Rapidly

by P. Homewood, March 7, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


The renewable lobby often claims that the rising cost of fossil fuels will help make renewable energy competitive.

However, oil and gas prices remain stubbornly uncooperative. Gas prices in particular are back down to levels seen last spring, after peaking last autumn.

As is usually the way, power prices have followed the same pattern.

Oil and gas are very much cyclical markets. When supply is tight, prices rise, thus attracting more investment to increase production.

Prices therefore fall, cutting profitability and new investment, and setting the whole cycle back in motion again.

How long supply can keep meeting ever rising demand is a moot point. But there is little sign of anything changing in the foreseeable future.

http://www.catalyst-commercial.co.uk/reports/227/energy-market-report—mar19/

ExxonMobil announces 5-8t cubic feet of gas off Cyprus (Update2)

by Georges Psyllides, February 28, 2019 in CyprusMail


Cyprus and ExxonMobil on Thursday announced a gas find estimated between 5-8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in an offshore field inside the island’s exclusive economic zone.

The discovery was made in the Glafcos (Glaucus) 1 well in Block 10 of the EEZ.

“Based on preliminary interpretation of the well data, the discovery could represent an in-place natural gas resource of approximately 5 trillion to 8 trillion cubic feet (142 billion to 227 billion cubic metres). Further analysis in the coming months will be required to better determine the resource potential,” the company said in a statement.

40 ans après la révolution en Iran, l’arme géopolitique du pétrole a fait long feu

by Samuel Furfari, 5 février 2019 in L’Echo


La stratégie des anciens président iranien et vénézuélien – Ahmadinejad et Chavez comme Maduro à sa suite – qui rêvaient de mettre à genoux les États-Unis grâce à leurs réserves de pétrole, a lamentablement échoué. Qui plus est, l’Iran et le Venezuela ne sont pas des pays où il fait bon vivre…

Venezuela : quelle leçon retenir de l’échec de ce champion du pétrole ?

by Samuel Furfari, 29 janvier 2019 in  Contrepoints


La révolution bolivarienne financée par le pétrole a complètement appauvri le Venezuela. Les idéologues socialistes avaient tout faux depuis le début.

Le paradoxe est encore plus étrange car le pays est très riche en ressources naturelles. Avec 303 milliards de barils (18 %  du total mondial), le Venezuela détient les plus grandes réserves prouvées de brut au monde, loin devant l’Arabie Saoudite qui en possède 266. Pour mesurer leur ampleurs, observons que ces réserves correspondent à celles combinées de la Russie, des États-Unis et de l’Iran. Il possède également 6 400 milliards de m3 de gaz naturel – 3,3 % des réserves mondiales –  soit près de quatre fois les réserves de la Norvège, considérée en Europe comme un grand du gaz.

La plupart des réserves de pétrole prouvées du Venezuela sont situées dans le bassin du fleuve Orinoco, où 220,5 milliards de barils de pétrole lourd gisent, pratiquement inexploités. Même s’il n’est pas de première qualité, c’est quand même du pétrole. La principale zone de production se trouve dans le bassin de Maracaibo, où l’on pompe près de 50 % du pétrole vénézuélien.

Il y a pléthore de gaz et de pétrole ! Vous êtes au courant ?

by Michel Gay, 13 janvier 2019 in Contrepoints


Du gaz et du pétrole de schiste sont découverts à profusion dans le monde, notamment aux États-Unis. Qui en parle dans nos grands media ? Serait-ce politiquement incorrect de l’évoquer ?

LE SUCCÈS DU PARI DU GAZ ET DU PÉTROLE DE SCHISTE

Le Texas aux États-Unis regorge de pétrole et de gaz de schiste au point que les gazoducs existants sont saturés ! Le gaz doit même être « torché » ou « éventé ».

En attendant la mise en service de nouvelles capacités de transport, la production doit être réduite faute de pouvoir exporter les quantités extraites. La production de pétrole de schiste doit aussi être réduite en parallèle car il est extrait avec le gaz (et vice-versa).

Des projets sont en développement pour évacuer le gaz vers le Golfe du Mexique pour le liquéfier (GPL) et pouvoir ainsi l’exporter par bateau méthanier.

PREMIER PRODUCTEUR DE PÉTROLE

Les États-Unis ont dépassé la Russie et l’Arabie Saoudite pour devenir le premier producteur de pétrole brut  en 2018 a annoncé l’agence américaine de l’énergie (EIA).

Après avoir stagné autour de 6 millions de barils par jour (Mb/j) en moyenne de 1933 à 2013, la production a grimpé à 9,4 Mb/j en 2017, puis à 10,4 Mb/j en 2018, et elle passera à 11,5 Mb/j 2019.

La surabondance de gaz de schiste associé à l’extraction du pétrole de schiste a fait chuter les prix au terminal gazier à l’ouest du Texas jusqu’à 1 dollar par million d’unité thermique britannique (dollar/MM-Btu), alors qu’il vaut 13 à 14 dollars/MM-Btu sur le marché européen.

BP just discovered a billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico

by Tom DiChristopher, January 8, 2019 in CNBC


KEY POINTS
  • BP discovers 1 billion barrels of oil at its Thunder Horse field in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • The oil giant also says it will spend $1.3 billion to develop a third phase of its Atlantis offshore field south of New Orleans.
  • BP credits its investment in advanced seismic technology for speeding up its ability to confirm the discoveries.

Natural Gas Power Plants Bringing $25 Billion to the Appalachian Basin

by Jackie Stewart, October 9, 2018 in EnergyInDepth


The Appalachian Basin is driving growth of record-shattering U.S. natural gas production, which in turn has helped spur more than $25 billion in natural gas electricity generation investment in the region. In fact, there are 29 new 475-megawatt (MW) or greater natural gas-fired power plants that are in various stages of permitting, under construction or have recently become operational in Ohio (10), Pennsylvania (16) and West Virginia (3), representing more than 26,000 MW of added electric capacity, more than 17,000 jobs during construction and incredible emissions reductions in the electricity sector.

4 oil price predictions for 2019

by Steve Austin, January 7, 2019 in Oil-Price.Net


Last year, we gave out five blazing predictions as we stepped into a brand new 2018. And, how did we fare? Well, the year isn’t new anymore but we did get 5 out of 5 of our predictions right! Self-congratulations are in order reaffirming why you read us. For 2019, really it’s more of the same, but with some caveats. Investors, listen. Readers, pay heed, we are about to deconstruct the next year. As audacious as it sounds, here are our 4 oil price predictions for 2019:

Peak Oil Postponed Again: “USGS Identifies Largest Continuous Oil and Gas Resource Potential Ever”… And it’s in the Permian Basin

by David Middleton, December 7, 2018 in WUWT


The “amazing” thing is that this isn’t a “new” oil discovery.  It’s just a realization that a lot more oil and gas can be produced from these formations than was previously imagined.

The Permian Basin a nearly infinite resource.  It seems as if there will always be more hydrocarbons to squeeze out of its numerous oil & gas reservoirs.  From a Warmunist perspective the Bone Spring and Wolfcamp are much worse than previously thought…

The state of Shale Gas and Oil in the U.S.A. today

by Andy May, November 20, 2018 in WUWT


A few news items from The Shale Gas News, by Bill desRosiers of Cabot Oil & Gas. The main paragraphs below are adapted from desRosiers, but I’ve added some detail. Things are looking very good for the U.S. oil, gas and coal industries.

  • U.S. crude oil and natural gas production increased in 2017, with fewer wells. The total number of wells producing crude oil and natural gas in the United States fell to 991,000 in 2017, down from a peak of 1,039,000 wells in 2014. This recent decline in the number of wells reflects advances in technology and drilling techniques. EIA’s updated U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Wells by Production Rate report shows how daily production rates of individual wells contributed to U.S. total crude oil and natural gas production in 2017.

    The well efficiency gains, in part, reflect an increase in the proportion of horizontal wells. The number of vertical wells decreased from 940,000 in 2014 to 864,000 in 2017. The number of horizontal wells increased from 99,000 in 2014 to 127,000 in 2017, an increase of 28%. This is important since only one percent of vertical wells produce 100 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) or more, but 30% of horizontal wells do. Typically, a horizontal well costs about twice as much as a vertical well to the same reservoir.

    U.S. oil production grew from 10 million BOPD to 11 million BOPD between December 2017 and July 2018. Over the same period natural gas production grew from 97 BCF (billion cubic feet) to 100 BCF. Figures 1, 2, and 3 show the total number of wells drilled and the total oil and natural gas production.

Les réserves de pétrole ne s’épuiseront jamais… mais le problème n’est pas là !

by Samuel Furfari, 8 novembre 2018 in ConnaissancedesEnergies


Ça y est ! Le seuil de production de 100 millions de barils de pétrole par jour est désormais atteint. Il y a cinquante ans, on en consommait le tiers et c’est une perspective que beaucoup d’experts autoproclamés n’avaient pas envisagé. C’est une nouvelle occasion de répéter, à l’intention de ces « experts » et de ceux qui leur emboîtent le pas, qu’il est temps de cesser la rengaine de la fin du pétrole.

Bien que toutes les annonces passées relatives à la fin du pétrole aient été démenties par les faits, des semeurs de peur s’aventurent encore à lancer ces prévisions fantaisistes. S’ils le font, c’est parce que la peur fait vendre. Tout le monde y trouve son compte: le public reçoit sa dose d’adrénaline – même s’il se plaint du prix prohibitif de son plein de carburant – les auteurs perçoivent leurs droits, les éditeurs vendent des livres ou de la publicité sur leur site internet et des traders actifs à Genève profitent de la situation pour gagner, ne serait-ce que quelques cents en plus, sur les millions de barils de pétrole brut qu’ils négocient.

Oil Production at 100 million bbl/d: “Twin peaks straining the system to the limit”? Or just another day at the office in a highly resilient industry?

by  David Middleton, October 15, 2018 in WUWT


From the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR):

Home » Newsroom » News » 2018 » October

OMR: Twin Peaks

12 October 2018

Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon. Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now.

 

International Panel Calls for End to Global War on Fossil Fuels

by Anthony Watts, October5, 2018 in WUWT


More than 100 leading scholars from 12 countries have issued a report contending “the global war on fossil fuels … was never founded on sound science or economics” and urging the world’s policymakers to “acknowledge this truth and end that war.”

The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an independent organization founded in 2003 to fact-check the work of the United Nations on the issue of climate change, today released the Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels. The 27-page Summary provides an early look at a 1,000-page report expected to be released on December 4 at a climate science symposium during the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP-24) in Katowice, Poland. 

Among the findings reported in the Summary for Policymakers:

  • Reducing fossil fuel use to achieve dramatic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions would inflict tremendous economic hardship. Reducing greenhouse gases to 90 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 would require a 96% reduction in world GDP, reducing per-capita GDP to $1,200 from $30,600 now forecast. Per-capita income would be at about the level it was in the United States and Western Europe in about 1820 or 1830, before the Industrial Revolution.

Highlights From the 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

by David Middleton, September 12, 2018 in WUWT


Statistical Review of World Energy

Global primary energy consumption grew strongly in 2017, led by natural gas and renewables, with coal’s share of the energy mix continuing to decline

Energy developments

  • Primary energy consumption growth averaged 2.2% in 2017, up from 1.2 % last year and the fastest since 2013. This compares with the 10-year average of 1.7% per year.
  • By fuel, natural gas accounted for the largest increment in energy consumption, followed by renewables and then oil.
  • Energy consumption rose by 3.1% in China. China was the largest growth market for energy for the 17th consecutive year.

Carbon emissions

  • Carbon emissions increased by 1.6%, after little or no growth for the three years from 2014 to 2016.

[…]

BP

Despite the Never-Ending Death of Coal: It’s Still a Fossil Fueled World

The End of Oil and Gas

by Andy May, July 7, 2018 in WUWT


The end of oil and gas has been predicted on a regular basis since 1885, yet today we use more of both than ever before and no end is in sight in the data available. Figure 1 shows worldwide energy consumption by fuel since 1965 and projected to 2035 by BP in billion tonnes of oil equivalent, it shows substantial growth in both oil and gas.

….

Figure 1. Worldwide energy consumption by type of fuel. Source:  BP Energy Outlook 2017.

Whatever happened to fears over “peak oil”?

by Michael Lynch, June 30, 2018 in WUWT


Very few people realize that the entire concerns about peak oil were based on misinformation or junk science.

A decade ago, the media was filled with stories about peak oil, numerous books were published on the subject (such as Half Gone and $20 a Gallon!), and even the Simpsons mentioned it in an episode about doomsday preppers.  Now, the topic is largely forgotten and the flavor of the month is peak oil demand.  Anyone concerned about the quality of research that works its way into the public debate should be curious about how so many were so wrong for so long.  (Buy my book for the full story.)

First and foremost, realize that in the 1970s, numerous analysts and institutions made similar arguments, arguing that geological scarcity was responsible for higher prices not the two disruptions of production in 1973 and 1979.  Indeed, in the months before oil prices collapsed in 1986, the consensus was that prices were too low and had to rise to make upstream investment profitable, despite the fact that OPEC production was collapsing (down from 30 mb/d in 1980 to 15 in 1985).  You would think that this would make people more skeptical about claims that geological scarcity was responsible when the shutdown of Venezuelan production and the second Gulf War cut off Iraqi supplies sent prices higher starting in 2003.

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Marchés pétroliers: l’OPEP+ a-t-elle toutes les cartes en main ?

by Samuel Furfari, 21 juin 2018, in ConnaissancedesEnergies


Ce week-end, le monde de l’énergie délaissera le Mondial de football pour s’intéresser à la rencontre ministérielle de l’OPEP à Vienne. Des grandes manœuvres sont en cours, non pas tellement pour décider des « allocations de production » – pléonasme employé par l’OPEP pour ne pas parler de « quotas de production », ce qui aurait une connotation négative – mais des positionnements géopolitiques dans le nouveau monde en construction.

Flash-back. Au début des années 1970, dans la droite ligne du malthusianisme, le Club de Rome propage une nouvelle vague de peur en s’appuyant sur des craintes fournies par des ordinateurs : tout le monde a cru que la fin du pétrole annoncée pour 2000 était une vérité scientifique. À l’époque, la modélisation était innovante et donc attractive…

(…)

Russian efforts to disrupt U.S. energy markets exposed

by Bonner Cohen, May 13, 2018 in CFACT


The Kremlin has masterminded an elaborate scheme to undermine American fossil-fuel production and distribution, concludes a report by the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.

Released March 1, the report, “Russian Attempts to Influence U.S. Domestic Energy Markets by Exploiting Social Media,” reveals how Russia has teamed up with U.S. and European environmental groups to use such popular outlets as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram to turn American public opinion against the domestic oil and natural gas industry.

With the United States having surpassed Russia as the world’s largest producer of natural gas, and now ranking as the world’s fastest-growing producer of oil, the Russians have reason to fear what is more than a little competition. Saying America’s soaring energy development “poses a direct threat to Russian energy interests,” the report explains: …

Evaluating active pressure management of induced earthquakes

by Seismological Society of America, May 17, 2018 in ScienceDaily


The experiments conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researcher Kayla Kroll and her colleagues were prompted by a recent spike in induced earthquake activity related to oil and gas production in the U.S. and Canada. The rise in induced earthquakes has some scientists proposing changes in injection or production processes to reduce the fluid pressures that destabilize faults in these regions.

In their simulations, Kroll and colleagues “found that active management was most advantageous for wells that were closest to a fault. This scenario is most successful at reducing the total number of seismic events and also the maximum magnitude of those events,” Kroll said. In their simulations, a “close well” was one to four meters away from a fault (…)

World Energy Outlook 2017

by WEO, 2017 in IEA, May 2018


Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook 2017: the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies, the growing electrification of energy, the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, and the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States.

These shifts come at a time when traditional distinctions between energy producers and consumers are being blurred and a new group of major developing countries, led by India, moves towards centre stage.

How these developments play out and interact is the story of this year’s Outlook.

(…)

Crude Oil Price Forecast: $100 per barrel by 2019

by Gary Ashton, May 12, 2018 in Investopedia


Disruption in Iran could force OPEC to adjust up production levels earlier than it had expected and could prompt U.S. shale drillers in West Texas to drill more. Despite these efforts to fill in for lost supply, analysts at Bank of America still expect oil to reach $100 per barrel in 2019.

(…)

OPEC and IEA Reports Up Next

On Monday, traders and analysts will get a look at the latest OPEC monthly oil market report. Key data to watch for are any additional upward revisions to world oil demand. Last month, OPEC revised 2018 world demand growth to 1.63 million barrels per day. Total demand for the year is forecast to average 98.7 million barrels per day. Traders will also be looking at OPEC’s world supply expectations. In last month’s report, OPEC said that it expects non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.71 million barrels per day in 2018, with the U.S. accounting for most of the supply growth.