Reviewing Elon Musk and His Position on the Climate ‘Crisis’

by Climate Change and Music, Feb 19, 2024 OPEN LETTER


GREAT SYNTHESIS

With respect to “Climate Change”, this website and my contribution to the discussion focuses on the data. I have a standing request/challenge to anyone (scientist or not) to provide an empirical Temperature/CO2 data set that shows CO2 driving the climate on any statistically significant historical time scale. Scientific proof requires empirical data. The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) theory does not have that empirical data (because that data does not exist).

The Great Barrier Reef could Die This Year?

by E. Worrall, Feb18, 2024 in WUWT


 

The Great Barrier Reef is in no danger of dying, at most it will change location a little. The reef is composed of an organism which has survived for at least 200 million years, through unimaginably catastrophic global extinction events and disasters, including the asteroid which killed the dinosaurs.

The reason that coral is so good at surviving great upheavals is that while adult coral is immobile, coral spawn is immensely mobile.

Every so often corals spawn. Corals produce immense clouds of microscopic eggs and sperms, which germinate into highly mobile microscopic coral larvae which seek out new places to colonise.

The Great Barrier Reef itself has moved location countless times over the millennia, the reef has only been at its current location for a few thousand years. Some Australian shorelines are composed of coral which lived thousands of years ago, during the Holocene Optimum, when the sea level was significantly higher than today. The Great Barrier Reef had and has no trouble changing location when climate change impacts sea conditions, such as when the world cooled after the end of the Holocene Optimum, and the sea waters retreated to today’s level.

And in fact, Australian coral coverage hit a record high a record high in 2022 – as an organism which is responsive to conditions, coral cover fluctuates wildly when conditions change.

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

by M. Ebell & S.J. Milloy, 18 Sep 2019 in CompetitiveEnterpriseInstitute


Thanks go to Tony Heller, who first collected many of these news clips and posted them on RealClimateScience

SUMMARY

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today.

None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.

What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.

While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.

Chile Forest Fires–Climate Change?

by P. Homewood, Feb 15, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


The wildfire is the worst disaster to hit Chile for more than a decade. At least 131 people have died, with a further 370 still missing. The hillside neighbourhoods it ripped through, destroying more 15,000 homes, are now a scorched wasteland of broken cement and steel.

Firestorms of this magnitude are a terrifying phenomenon, moving so fast and with such energy that they can kill people hundreds of metres away through radiant heat alone. But it is not unique.

Hawaii, California, France, Portugal, Canada, Greece and Australia have all been hit in recent years. In July 2022, when temperatures reached 40C for the first time in the UK, the residents of Wennington in east London witnessed nearly 20 houses burn down in a matter of minutes. The spark was a compost heap that had spontaneously combusted.

Experts are now asking: What’s causing these infernos? And is there anything that can be done to stop them?

Chile’s forest fire, like most, was preceded by unusually high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds.

Arctic “Just-So Stories”: Bad Science by Climate Alarmists

by J. Steele, Feb 14, 2024 in WUWT


The Arctic Ocean was nick-named the “upside down Ocean” by Fridtjof Nansen. Nansen was a famous Norwegian zoologists, oceanographer, and Arctic explorer as well as winner of the 1922 Nobel Peace Prize. During his failed expedition to reach the North Pole, his boat, the Fram, got frozen in Arctic sea ice but eventually was exported by Arctic currents, along with Arctic sea ice, into the Atlantic through what is now named the Fram Strait.

Nansen named the Arctic Ocean the “upside down ocean” because contrary to other oceans, the surface waters are the coldest, while between 100 and 900-meters depths the ocean is warmer due to inflows and storage of warm salty Atlantic waters. Sea ice cover prevents the ventilation of that stored heat. However, increases in open water allows more heat ventilation which has raised Arctic air temperatures 2 to 7 times faster than the global average. Open waters have been increasing due to changes in wind direction and currents. Open water is not proof of melting.

NASA estimates that globally added CO2 has increased downward infrared and added “a little over 0.8 Watts per square meter” of energy which their Just So stories claim melted sea ice. But researchers (e.g. Kim 2019) have reported that over open water more winter heat, about 2 Watts per meter squared, is being ventilated heat away more than absorbed. That suggests radiative cooling!

When polar bears die, they die of starvation: new Nature paper is propaganda, not news

by S. Crockford, Feb 13, 2024 in PolarBearScience


Is it a coincidence that a paper reporting the results of a no-news study on polar bears, but which predicts future starvation due to climate change, was published two weeks to the day ahead of a climate change marketing event made up by the activist organization Polar Bears International? I doubt it.

And do I think the high-profile journal Nature Communications would not only agree to publish such a useless bit of propaganda but also rig the timing to advance the climate change emergency narrative? Silly question. And the media worldwide are of course lapping it up, happy for an excuse to promote the perils of climate change, see here, here, and here using images of fat polar bears. Image above is from the BBC headline, 13 February 2024.

They believe this strategy is effective because they think the public is stupid, but they are deluding themselves. Most people are now laughing at their obvious acts of desperation.

Polar bears are highly specialize for consuming large amounts of fat that they get from Arctic seals, whales, and walrus. Only a few vocal researchers outside main-stream polar bear science insist that polar bears could ever survive year-round by eating terrestrial foods (e.g., Ilses et al. 2013; Iverson et al. 2014; Gormezano and Rockwell 2013a,b; Prop et al. 2015; Rogers et al. 2015; Tartu et al. 2016).

Iceland, the island of danger

by B. Van Vliet-Lanoë & A. Préat, Feb 8, 2024 in ScienceClimatEnergie


Main topic : Iceland attracts tourists as much as it does scientists tasked with forecastingthe significant natural hazards inherent in its unique geological context. There’s not aweek goes by when Iceland doesn’t feature prominently in the media, and even more so today with the evacuation of the population on 11 November following the awakening ofthe volcano at Grindavik, 40km southwest of Reykjavik.

The current eruption has been forecast since 21 July 2023, and was activated in December and on 14 January 2024. This is neither the first nor the last time that volcanism has made or will make news. Grindavik isnot the only eruption underway: between 40 and 50 of the 1,330 known volcanoes on Earth are erupting at any one time. This eruptive activity is accompanied by ‘disastrous’ effects such as frequent earthquakes, sulphur and ash aerosols, sub-glacial melting of the ice caps, glacio-isostatic discharges, and uplift… Yes, Iceland is under close survey… because it is located on an active hot spot.

Laki or ‘Lakagigar’ is a volcanic system in the graben across Iceland. Colossal fissure erupti

Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century

by N. Scafetta,  March 2024, in GeoscienceFrontier


Highlights

The IPCC AR6 assessment of likely impacts and risks by 21st-century climate changes is highly uncertain.

  • Most climate models, however, run too hot, and the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are unlikely.

  • New climate change projections for the 21st century were generated using best-performing climate models,

  • Empirical climate modeling of natural cycles, and calibration on lower troposphere temperature data.

  • Net-zero emission policies are not necessary because SSP2-4.5 is sufficient to limit climate change hazards to manageable levels.

Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024

by A. Patel, Feb 12, 2024 in WUWT


However, This El Nino Not Expected to Be as Strong As 1982-83 Or 1997-98 Or 2015-16 El Nino

Enso Status on 10th February 2024

Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :

The classification of El Niño events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn’t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0°C or above to categorize an El Niño event as “Super Strong.”

In general, a strong El Niño event is often characterized by ONI values reaching or exceeding +2.0°C. A Super Strong El Niño would typically involve sustained ONI value of +2.0°C or more. Hence for ease of understanding and comparing the strength of various Strong El Nino events, I propose to define an El Nino as a Super Strong event if  three consecutive ONI index is +2.0°C or more.

A brief history of the past El Nino events with the number of consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above:

In the year 1965 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0°C, OND +2.0°C

In the year 1972-73 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were OND +2.1°C NDJ +2.1°C DJF

In the year 1982-83 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0°C, OND +2.2°C NDJ +2.2°C DJF +2.2°C

In the year 1997-98 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.1°C SON +2.3°C, OND +2.4°C NDJ +2.4°C DJF +2.2°C

In the year 2015-16 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.2°C SON +2.4°C, OND +2.6°C NDJ +2.6°C DJF +2.5°C JFM +2.1°C

ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here

There have been three Super Strong El Nino events from 1950 onwards till date. The first such event was 1982-83 Super Strong El Nino with 4 consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.2°C twice. The second Super Strong El Nino event was 1997-98 with five consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.4°C twice. The third Super Strong El Nino event was 2015-16 with six consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.6°C twice. The current forecast and analysis does not support the 2023-24 El Nino to become a Super Strong El Nino.

Calls for Met Office to retract false ‘more intense storms’ claim

by GWPF, Feb 13, 2024


London, 13 February – The UK Met Office has been accused of seriously misleading the public about climate-driven storms in the UK.

On 22nd January, the day after Storm Isha, a senior meteorologist from the Met Office stated on BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast that “when we see these storms they are more intense and that’s down to climate change”.

However, after being challenged through a FOI request to provide evidence for the claim that storms have become more intense, the Met Office was forced to admit they have no such evidence.

In its response, the Met Office also referred to its own UK Storm activity report which clearly states that “there is no compelling trend in maximum gust speeds recorded in the UK since 1969.”

We call on the Met Office to publish a full retraction of what is evidently a false and misleading claim.

NOTES FOR EDITORS

Met Office: Recent trends and future projections of UK storm activity: “This report found that there is no compelling trend in maximum gust speeds recorded in the UK since 1969, measured as the number of days more than 20 weather stations recorded gust speeds above 40, 50 or 60 knots.”

Met Office: State of the UK Climate 2022 (page 47):  “Storm Eunice [in 2022] was the most severe storm to affect England and Wales since February 2014, but even so, these storms of the 1980s and 1990s were very much more severe.”

Paul Homewood: Met Office cannot provide evidence for “more intense storms” claim

New Study Finds No Evidence Of A CO2-Driven Warming Signal In 60 Years Of IR Flux Data

by K. Richard, Jan 11, 2024 in NoTricksZone


“The real atmosphere does not follow the GHG [greenhouse gas] GE [greenhouse effect] hypothesis of the IPCC.” – Miskolczi, 2023

CO2 increased from 310 ppm to 385 ppm (24%) during the 60 years from 1948 to 2008. Observations indicate this led to a negative radiative imbalance of -0.75 W/m². In other words, increasing CO2 delivered a net cooling effect – the opposite of what the IPCC has claimed should happen (Miskolczi, 2023).

Also, there is “no correlation with time and the strong signal of increasing atmospheric CO2 content in any time series,” which affirms “the atmospheric CO2 increase cannot be the reason for global warming.”

“The Arrhenius type greenhouse effect of the CO2 and other non-condensing GHGs is an incorrect hypothesis and the CO2 greenhouse effect based global warming hypothesis is also an artifact without any theoretical or empirical footing.”

Hottest 12 Months for 125,000 Years Claim Lacks Any Scientific Evidence

by C. Morrison, Jan 7, 2023 in TheDailySceptic, 


Last year humanity lived through the hottest 12 months in at least 125,000 years, reported an hysterical CNN, a frame of mind replicated throughout much of the mainstream media. Scientists have compared 2023’s “climate change fallout” to a “disaster movie”, added the U.S. cable news channel. All poppycock, needless to say, with a political Net Zero motive, and little if any scientific evidence to back it up. Accurate temperature records barely started before the 20th century, and recent measurements by fixed thermometers have been heavily corrupted by growing urban heat. It is in fact possible using proxy measurements to get a good idea of general temperature movements over the last 125,000 years. All the evidence points to periods of much higher temperatures, notably between 10,000 to 5,000 years ago. The latest science paper examining this trend has just been published, and it points to summer temperatures at least 1.5°C higher around 5,000 years ago in the eastern Mediterranean, at a time when civilisation was developing rapidly.

Mount Pinatubo eruption caused the major East China flood in 1991

by C. Xing & F. Liu, Jan 2023 in InnovativeGeoscience


The devastating flood of 2020 along the Yangtze River serves as a painful reminder of the 1991 East China’s largest flood. The latter event profoundly impacted the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins (YHRBs), causing extensive damage to both human lives and property1. The flood engulfed numerous villages and cities across seven provinces in East China, affecting over 15,000,000 hectares of farmland and approximately 100 million people. In response, millions of individuals in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces were forced to evacuate, with some seeking refuge on the banks of the Huaihe River. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the contributing factors to this historically significant flood will enhance our ability to predict the East Asian summer monsoon and mitigate related climate disasters. Over the past three decades, this pursuit has been a persistent challenge1,2,3.

The 1991 East China flood was attributed to prominent intraseasonal oscillations, as evidenced by three episodes of heavy rain occurring from mid-May to mid-July over the YHRBs2, primarily linked to the persistent Meiyu front during early July1. The stable western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which plays a crucial role in influencing the East Asian monsoon by altering the convergence of southeasterly and southwesterly, provided substantial support for the prolonged existence of the Meiyu front in 19911; However, the reason behind the prolonged stability of the WPSH during that specific period remains a mystery.

No internal climate variability modes were reported to be in their most flood-favorable conditions during 1991, and the effect of external forcing on this flood disaster was not taken into consideration at all. Half a month before the flood, the Mount Pinatubo (located at 120.4ºE, 15.1ºN) in Luzon, the Philippines, explosively erupted on June 15th, 1991, which later is known as one of the strongest volcanic eruption in the past century. This eruption released approximately 20 Tg of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere4, which can form stratospheric aerosol that impact the global radiative balance. The stratospheric volcanic aerosol acts as a major forcing on the climate by cooling the global surface and slowing down the water cycle on annual to decadal timescales5. However, it remains unclear whether explosive volcanic eruptions have short-term impacts on the climate, particularly on the intraseasonal timescale.

UK Rainfall In 2023

by P. Homewood, Jan 7 ,2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKonwThat


image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_totals.txt

Last year was a wet one in England & Wales, the 7th wettest on record. (The UK series has a similar result).

We routinely hear claims that the climate is wetter because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, (while also being told we will get more droughts!). However the fact that we have had similarly wet years in the distant past, such as 1768, 1852, 1872, 1877, 1882, 1903 and 1960, rather demolishes that argument.

The major factor behind last year’s high rainfall was that the number of rain days was also one of the highest on record since 1931, when Met Office daily data begins. In short, annual rainfall was high because of weather, not climate.

Rising Maximum Temperatures

by K. Hansen, Jan5, 2024 in WUWT


Roger Pielke Jr. recently posted a piece at The Honest Broker titled:  “U.S. Climate Extremes: 2023 Year in Review   – A Very Normal Year” – which was subsequently reposted at WUWT.

In that post, he uses this graphic:

(I have increased the size of the titles for clarity – kh)

It is easy to see that the trends of both the Maximum January temperatures and the Maximum July temperatures have been rising — more so for January temperatures than July — though this is somewhat obscured by the different scales of the two graphs.   [Caveat:  The temperature record on which this graph is based is not scientifically reliable before about 1940.] Also, one has to be careful to note what exactly they are really measuring.

CET Daily Temperatures

by P. Homewood, Jan 4, 2023 in NotaLotofPeople KnowThat


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max2023.html

I want to focus on the end of year CET graph, which gives the lie to the extreme temperature myth often bandied around.

The graph plots daily max CET temperatures, against the background of the percentiles of the 1961-90 climatology. The Met Office should of course be using 1991-2020 as the baseline, so the climatology should be shifted upwards by a half a degree or so. But we’ll leave that aside.

We can legitimately regard anything between the 5% and 95% bands as being “weather”. Only days outside this might be regarded as “extreme”. (I would actually argue anything outside 1% and 99%).

We see that apart from a handful of days, every day was within that “normal weather” band.

In a year there will be 36 days outside of that band on average. The Met Office do not supply the data for these percentiles to enable the number of days to be calculated, but this year it does not look to be excessive in terms of that average.

Moreover, although there were a few days in September which set record highs for that particularly day, none were records for the month as a whole. The highest temperature last September was 28.9C, but the record for September stands at 31.5C in 1906:

 

Of course most of the year had temperatures above the average. But we have a wide range of weather in Britain. We can have mild, wet winters, and cold, snowy ones; we can have cool, wet summers and sunny hot ones. But these are weather events, not climate, and they are dependent on weather patterns, the jet stream and so on.

A predominance of warmer weather is not climate change.

No Trends In Extratropical Cyclones – IPCC

by  P. Homewood, Jan 2, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


image

We constantly hear that storms are getting worse because of global warming. These claims are not referring to hurricanes and tropical storms, but the sort of storm which hits the UK several times every winter.

These are known as Extratropical Storms. The clown Jim Dale made this very claim again this week after Strom Gerrit. According to him, it is all to do with warm oceans, which pep up these storms. If this was correct, there would never be any storms in the Arctic. But claims such as this show a basic misunderstanding of meteorology; astonishing for somebody who claims to be a meteorologist!

NOAA explain the difference between tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs):

61 NoTricksZone Articles On Studies, Datasets From 2023 Show Climate Models Are Rubbish

by P.  Gosselin,  Ec 31, 2023 in NoTricksZone


Most climate models are worse than garbage, a number of real measurements, peer-reviewed studies and data show. Their phony results are mainly used to spread fear. 

 

The outputs of model simulations often get confused by the media and public as real measurement results. But often they are generated nefariously to promote panic.

Recall the pandemic models showing showing 100s of millions would die if we didn’t lockdown. In reality COVID 19 was no worse than a regular flu.

What follows are 61 NTZ posts from 2023 that show that climate model results have nothing to do with reality. Their outputs are garbage. 

1. Typhoons are supposed to be getting more frequent and worse. They are not.

2. Sea levels rise is accelerating, models say. Fact: at many places they are falling.

3. It’s the hottest in 125,000 years. Wrong, e.g. it was fore example 4-7°C warmer in Austria 2000 years ago.

4. CO2 is the main driver. It is not. Models severely underestimate clouds.

5. Water vapor causes warming. But here’s a study that suggests the opposite.

6. CO2 leads to warming and drought. But the opposite is true: greening and cooling.

7. Winters in Tokyo are warming, the models tell us. But JMA data in fact show they are cooling.

8. Models show rapidly rising sea levels. But tide gauges and studies show it’s not true.

9. Models say Venice is gonna sink. It’s not happening, a study shows.

10. Models say that Holocene sea levels are higher than ever today. But mid-Holocene levels were 1-3 meters higher.

 

 

51. Remember how the models predicted Greenland would melt rapidly and cause sea levels to rise by meters? Well, since 1992, it has only contributed 1.2 CENTIMETERS!

52. Oops, also volcanic activity got neglected by the models too.

53. Two Portuguese scientists (Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023) identify at least 8 assumptions in the “greenhouse gas hypothesis” that lack scientific validation.  Models can’t work if the assumptions are grossly false.

54. Models got the aerosol forcings wrong too. ..10 times larger.

55. Antarctica has cooled. Models are wrong on that, too.

56. Models have been failing for 4 decades. Remember above how we remarked they worked better in the 1980s.

57. Modern sea ice extent is nearly the highest it’s been in 9000 years.

58. The rise of CO2 over the past 120 years hasn’t really altered the greenhouse effect. Someone tell the modelers.

59. A new paper finds that the models have it backwards: warming drives CO2!

60. Definitely today is NOT the warmest its been in 125,000 years, not even 10,000 years.

61. German Helmholtz UFZ ground moisture models insist the ground is still dry, even after weeks of heavy rains and floods.

Is the Low Snowpack this Year a Sign of Global Warming?

C. Mass, Jan1, 2024 in WUWT


El Nino

We are in a very strong El Nino and such events are highly correlated with warm winter temperatures and poor snowpack over the region.  Sea surface temperatures have been about 2C above normal over the past two months (see below).

According to NOAA/NWS, El Nino years are associated with warmer than normal October-November-Decembers (see below for a local climate division)

Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions

by C. Morrison, Dec 23, 2023 in WUWT


The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.

In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.

It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.

Hottest In 125,000 Years?

by P. Homewood, Dec 26, 2023 in WUWT


https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/this-year-virtually-certain-be-warmest-125000-years-eu-scientists-say-2023-11-08/

Just about all of the media have been peddling the “Hottest for 125,000 years” claim, which suggests a very concerted effort by the climate establishment in the run up to COP28.

The claim is self evident and baseless nonsense for a number of good reasons:

  • There is no such thing as “a global average temperature”
  • Even now we have very sparse coverage of temperature measurements. Prior to satellites, we had virtually no data  outside of the US, Europe and a few other built up areas
  • The temperature record we do have is thoroughly corrupted by UHI, and only dates back to the late 19thC
  • Natural variations, including ENSO, volcanic activity etc, can easily cause temperature swings of a degree Celsius from year to year, and decade to decade. But historical proxies don’t have the fine resolution to pick these up, they merely give an idea of average temperatures over decades and even centuries. Consequently you cannot compare one year now with the general climate of, say, 2000 years ago.

But forget about all of these theoretical objections, because the climatic evidence we do have is overwhelming, and it tells us that the climate has been much warmer than now for most of the last 10000 years, since the end of the ice age.

Here are ten powerful, incontrovertible pieces of evidence:

1) Greenland

 

….

Climate Science Double-Speak

by K. Hansen, 2017 in WUWT


A quick note for the amusement of the bored but curious.

While in search of something else, I ran across this enlightening page from the folks at UCAR/NCAR [The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/The National Center for Atmospheric Research — see pdf here for more information]:

What is the average global temperature now?

We are first reminded that “Climate scientists prefer to combine short-term weather records into long-term periods (typically 30 years) when they analyze climate, including global averages.”  As we know,  these 30-year periods are referred to as “base periods” and different climate groups producing data sets and graphics of Global Average Temperatures often use differing base periods, something that has to be carefully watched for when comparing results between groups.

Then things get more interesting, in that we get an actual number for Global Average Surface Temperature:

“Today’s global temperature is typically measured by how it compares to one of these past long-term periods. For example, the average annual temperature for the globe between 1951 and 1980 was around 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit (14 degrees Celsius). In 2015, the hottest year on record, the temperature was about 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C) warmer than the 1951–1980 base period.

Quick minds see immediately that 1.8°F warmer than 57.2°F is actually 59°F [or 15° C]  which they simply could have said.

UCAR/NCAR goes on to “clarify”:

“Since there is no universally accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, several different groups around the world use slightly different methods for tracking the global average over time, including:

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

    NOAA National Climatic Data Center

    UK Met Office Hadley Centre”

We are told, in plain language, that there is no accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, but assured that it is scientifically tracked by the several groups listed.

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse