Sizzling March?

by P. Homewood, April 3, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


According to CET, March 2019 was the 17th warmest on record since 1659, 1.2C higher than the 1981-2010 average.

Sound impressed? No, thought not!

The month as a whole actually seemed to be pretty unremarkable. There was some mild weather at the start of the month, accompanied by very wet weather. The last few days were also pleasant and sunny.

But unusually warm?

The graph at the top gives a bit of perspective.

First of all it is obvious that last month was pretty typical of Marchs during the last 30 years or so.

The fact that it is 1.2C above the 30-year average means little, as natural variability means some years are warmer and others cooler, such as last year. That’s what an average is.

Indeed, in the last 30 years, eleven had March anomalies of 1C or more. Six of these years were warmer than this March.

By far the warmest Marchs were in 1957 and 1938, again suggesting that there was nothing unusual about last month.

 

The other thing which stands out is that most Marchs used to be much colder than normal until the 1980s.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetmaxdly1878on_urbadj4.dat

see also here (WUWT)