Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

Texas Major Hurricane Intensity Not Related to Gulf Water Temperatures

by Ph.D.  Roy Spencer, August 29th, 2017 in GlobalWarming


As the Houston flood disaster is unfolding, there is considerable debate about whether Hurricane Harvey was influenced by “global warming”. While such an issue matters little to the people of Houston, it does matter for our future infrastructure planning and energy policy.

Let’s review the two basic reasons why the Houston area is experiencing what now looks like a new record amount of total rainfall, at least for a 2-3 day period over an area of tens of thousands of square miles.

Why ‘Hide The Decline’? There Has Been No Net NH Warming Since The 1940s

by Kenneth Richard, August 31, 2017 in NoTricksZone


In the press release for a newly published and controversial  peer-reviewed scientific paper, Australian scientist Dr. Jennifer Marohasy unveiled one of climate science’s better-kept secrets.

She and her colleagues are well aware that the post-1940s Northern Hemisphere (NH)  proxy evidence from tree-rings, bore holes, pollen, etc., consistently fails to affirm sharply rising temperatures from the late 20th century onwards.

Evidence for Little Ice Age in Antarctica

by UC Santa Cruz Newscenter, August 31, 2017 in WUWT


Changes in the sources of nitrogen and the composition of the phytoplankton community are more likely to account for the differences seen in the isotope data, Huckstadt said. “It looks more like a shift at the base of the food web, probably related to the transition from the Little Ice Age to current conditions, causing changes in the phytoplankton community,” he said.

See also: “Here we present new data from the Ross Sea, Antarctica, that indicates surface temperatures were ~ 2 °C colder during the LIA, with colder sea surface temperatures in the Southern Ocean and/or increased sea-ice extent, stronger katabatic winds, and decreased snow accumulation.”

Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use

by J. Sanderman et al., July 2017 in PNAS


Human appropriation of land for agriculture has greatly altered the terrestrial carbon balance, creating a large but uncertain car- bon debt in soils. Estimating the size and spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) loss due to land use and land cover change has been difficult but is a critical step in understand- ing whether SOC sequestration can be an effective climate mitigation strategy.

See also here

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

by Glenn A. Hodgkins et al., September 2017 in Journal of Hydrology


 

Trends in major-floods from 1204 sites in North America and Europe are assessed.

Trends based on counting exceedances of flood thresholds for groups of gauges.

The number of significant trends was about the number expected due to chance alone.

Changes in the frequency of major floods are dominated by multidecadal variability.

See also here

Texas Major Hurricane Intensity Not Related to Gulf Water Temperatures

by Ph.D. Roy Spencer, August 29, 2017 in GlobalWarming


As the Houston flood disaster is unfolding, there is considerable debate about whether Hurricane Harvey was influenced by “global warming”. While such an issue matters little to the people of Houston, it does matter for our future infrastructure planning and energy policy.

Let’s review the two basic reasons why the Houston area is experiencing what now looks like a new record amount of total rainfall, at least for a 2-3 day period over an area of tens of thousands of square miles.

Water Intrusion in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Is It Caused by Climate-Induced Sea Level Rise?

by Roger H. Bezdek, August 2017 in SciRes


Our findings indicate that the water intrusion problems in the region are due not to “sea level rise”, but primarily to land subsidence due to groundwater depletion and, to a lesser extent, subsidence from glacial isostatic adjustment. We conclude that water intrusion will thus continue even if sea levels decline. These findings are critical because the water intrusion problems in the Chesapeake Bay—and elsewhere—cannot be successfully solved unless their causes are correctly identified and appropriate remedies are devised.

Quantifying the causes of the recent decrease in US CO2 emissions

by Roger Andrews, August 23, 2017 in Energy Matters (blog)


Between 2007 and 2015 total annual US CO2 emissions decreased by 740 million tons (12%). An updated analysis shows that 35% of this decrease was caused by natural gas replacing coal in electricity generation, 30% by lower fuel consumption in the transportation sector, 28% by renewables replacing

Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes

by J. Li, J. Dodson et al., March 1,  2017 in QuaternSciReviews


We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in North China during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions.

We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%)…

Sea Level Manipulation

by Nils-Axel Mörner, August 5,  2017, in  J. Eng.Sci.Invention


Sea level changes is a key issue in the global warming scenario. It has been widely claimed that sea is rising as a function of the late 20th’s warming pulse. Global tide gauge data sets may vary between +1.7 mm/yr to +0.25 mm/yr depending upon the choice of stations. At numerous individual sites, available tide gauges show variability around a stable zero level …

… In this situation, it is recommended that we return to the observational facts, which provides global sea level records varying between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr; i.e. values that pose no problems in coastal protection.

See also here

Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In 2 Centuries

by  F.  Bosse and  F. Vahrenholt, August 23, in NoTricksZone


The sun was completely free of spots on 11 days in July. Notable: while during last month the sun’s northern hemisphere was more active (in June all sunspots were in the northern hemisphere), last month the southern hemisphere was the most active part with 60% of the sunspots appearing there. The following diagram shows the course of solar cycle 24 thus far (…)

Big data finds the Medieval Warm Period – no denial here

by Jennifer Marohasy, August 22, 2017


Our results show up to 1°C of warming. The average divergence between the proxy temperature record and our ANN projection is just 0.09 degree Celsius. This suggests that even if there had been no industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels, there would have still been warming through the twentieth century – to at least 1980, and of almost 1°C.

Chinese Academy of Sciences : see here and here,  also here

Most of the Recent Warming Could be Natural

by Jennifer Marohasy, August 21, 2017


AFTER deconstructing 2,000-year old proxy-temperature series back to their most basic components, and then rebuilding them using the latest big data techniques, John Abbot and I show what global temperatures might have done in the absence of an industrial revolution.  The results from this novel technique, just published in GeoResJ, accord with climate sensitivity estimates from experimental spectroscopy but are at odds with output from General Circulation Models.