by Tony Heller, August 28, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch
Summer isn’t quite over yet, but it was another cool summer in the US with afternoon temperatures continuing a 125-year cooling trend.
Archives de catégorie : climate-debate
Water Intrusion in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Is It Caused by Climate-Induced Sea Level Rise?
by Roger H. Bezdek, August 2017 in SciRes
Our findings indicate that the water intrusion problems in the region are due not to “sea level rise”, but primarily to land subsidence due to groundwater depletion and, to a lesser extent, subsidence from glacial isostatic adjustment. We conclude that water intrusion will thus continue even if sea levels decline. These findings are critical because the water intrusion problems in the Chesapeake Bay—and elsewhere—cannot be successfully solved unless their causes are correctly identified and appropriate remedies are devised.
Quantifying the causes of the recent decrease in US CO2 emissions
by Roger Andrews, August 23, 2017 in Energy Matters (blog)
Between 2007 and 2015 total annual US CO2 emissions decreased by 740 million tons (12%). An updated analysis shows that 35% of this decrease was caused by natural gas replacing coal in electricity generation, 30% by lower fuel consumption in the transportation sector, 28% by renewables replacing
Study validates East Antarctic ice sheet to remain stable even if western ice sheet melts
by Indiana University, August 17, 2017 in AAAS
There are models that predict that the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet wouldn’t change very much, even if the West Antarctic ice sheet was taken away,” Licht said. According to these models, even if the ice sheet’s perimeter retreats, its core remains stable.
Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes
by J. Li, J. Dodson et al., March 1, 2017 in QuaternSciReviews
We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in North China during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions.
We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%)…
It’s over – 4324 day major hurricane drought ends as Harvey makes landfall at Cat 4
by Anthony Watts, August 25, 2017, in WUWT
Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 ending the “major hurricane drought” we have been experiencing in the USA.
Hurricane Harvey: likely to be the next “Katrina” and “Sandy” for climate alarmists
by Anthony Watts, August 25, 2017 in WUWT
(…) Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast (…)
August Arctic Ice Un-Alarming
by Ron Clutz, August 25, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The animated image shown after the jump shows ice extents for day 233 from 2007 to 2017. Particularly interesting is the variation in the CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago), crucial for the Northwest Passage
Fat polar bears [and lots of them] drive public confidence in future of the species
by Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, 23 August 2017
What is causing the death of the polar bear as a climate change icon? Fat bears are part of it, but mostly it’s the fact that polar bear numbers haven’t declined as predicted.
Sea Level Manipulation
by Nils-Axel Mörner, August 5, 2017, in J. Eng.Sci.Invention
Sea level changes is a key issue in the global warming scenario. It has been widely claimed that sea is rising as a function of the late 20th’s warming pulse. Global tide gauge data sets may vary between +1.7 mm/yr to +0.25 mm/yr depending upon the choice of stations. At numerous individual sites, available tide gauges show variability around a stable zero level …
… In this situation, it is recommended that we return to the observational facts, which provides global sea level records varying between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr; i.e. values that pose no problems in coastal protection.
See also here
Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In 2 Centuries
by F. Bosse and F. Vahrenholt, August 23, in NoTricksZone
The sun was completely free of spots on 11 days in July. Notable: while during last month the sun’s northern hemisphere was more active (in June all sunspots were in the northern hemisphere), last month the southern hemisphere was the most active part with 60% of the sunspots appearing there. The following diagram shows the course of solar cycle 24 thus far (…)
Big data finds the Medieval Warm Period – no denial here
by Jennifer Marohasy, August 22, 2017
Our results show up to 1°C of warming. The average divergence between the proxy temperature record and our ANN projection is just 0.09 degree Celsius. This suggests that even if there had been no industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels, there would have still been warming through the twentieth century – to at least 1980, and of almost 1°C.
Chinese Academy of Sciences : see here and here, also here
Most of the Recent Warming Could be Natural
by Jennifer Marohasy, August 21, 2017
AFTER deconstructing 2,000-year old proxy-temperature series back to their most basic components, and then rebuilding them using the latest big data techniques, John Abbot and I show what global temperatures might have done in the absence of an industrial revolution. The results from this novel technique, just published in GeoResJ, accord with climate sensitivity estimates from experimental spectroscopy but are at odds with output from General Circulation Models.
Journalism And Science Quality Reaches Stunning New Record Low
by Tony Heller, August 21, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch
Last year, experts announced that the Arctic would be ice-free in 2017.
(…)
Will 2017 Set Records? (Now Includes June and July Data)
by Werner Brozek, August 20, 2017 in WUWT
In order to determine if records are possible in 2017, one must know the previous records as well as the average to date and what is required for the rest of the year in order for a particular data set to set a new record.
For the five data sets I cover, records were set in 2016. For now, I am not concerned about the statistical significance of the records, nor the number of decimal places. I merely want to know if the record can be beaten this year. At the end of the year, I plan on reporting any records and how statistically significant they are.
An Inconvenient Deception: How Al Gore Distorts Climate Science and Energy Policy
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., August 19, 2017 in GlobalWarming
Al Gore has provided a target-rich environment of deceptions in his new movie.
After viewing Gore’s most recent movie, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, and after reading the book version of the movie, I was more than a little astounded. The new movie and book are chock-full of bad science, bad policy, and factual errors.
Twenty Five Years Since A Category Five Hurricane Hit The US
by Tony Heller, August 20, 2017 in DeplorableClimSciBlog
This week in 1992, Hurricane Andrew hit Florida with 146 MPH winds. It was the last category 5 hurricane to hit the US.
The Little Ice Age And Medieval Warming In South Africa
by Paul Homewood, August 19, 2017
The climate industry likes to pretend that the Little Ice Age was just a local event in Europe, but studies like this one give the lie to that.
Interestingly this Tyson study also includes graphs of historical temperature trends in other parts of the world, for comparison. They all clearly show the MWP and Little Ice Age, although the peaks and troughs don’t always match.
See also here
Winter Comes Early To The Arctic – Greenland Gains 33% Above Normal Ice
by Tony Heller, August 17, 2017 in TheDeplClimScienceBlog
Winter has arrived about 10 days early in the Arctic, and Greenland’s surface has gained 500 billion tons of ice – about 33% above normal.
Study validates East Antarctic ice sheet to remain stable even if western ice sheet melts
by Indiana University, August 17, 2017 in ScienceDaily
“There are models that predict that the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet wouldn’t change very much, even if the West Antarctic ice sheet was taken away,” Licht said. According to these models, even if the ice sheet’s perimeter retreats, its core remains stable.
What do we know about Arctic sea ice trends?
by Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly, August 16, 2017 in WUWT
Satellite observations indicate that the average Arctic sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start of the satellite records in October 1978. Is this period long enough to assess whether the current sea level trend is unusual, and to what extent the decline is caused by humans?
This change in Arctic climate is often promoted as evidence that humans are causing drastic climate change. For instance, an April 29th 2017 article in the Economist (“Skating on thin ice”, pg 16) implied that the Arctic is melting unusually, dramatically and worryingly (…)
Climate Science Double-Speak
by Kip Hansen, August 16, 2017
“Since there is no universally accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, several different groups around the world use slightly different methods for tracking the global average over time, including:
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
UK Met Office Hadley Centre”
The Global Temperature Record Is A Farce
by Tony Heller, August 16, 2017 in DeplorableClimSciBlog
NASA says 97% of scientists agree that their temperature graphs are accurate, and NASA, NOAA, CRU and JMA all independently agree very precisely about global temperature going back to 1880.
This is quite remarkable, considering that NASA doesn’t agree with their own data, having doubled 1880-2000 warming over the past 15 years.
Record-shattering 2.7-million-year-old ice core reveals start of the ice ages
by Paul Voosen, August 15, 2017
Scientists announced today that a core drilled in Antarctica has yielded 2.7-million-year-old ice, an astonishing find 1.7 million years older than the previous record-holder
(…)
If the new result holds up, says Yige Zhang, a paleoclimatologist at Texas A&M University in College Station, the proxies will need to be recalibrated. “We have some work to do.”
35 New Papers Affirm Warmth, Elevated CO2 Are Good For The Earth And Its Inhabitants
by Kenneth Richard, August 14, 2017 in NoTricksZone