In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years.
In the last post (see here) we introduced a new Holocene temperature reconstruction for Antarctica using some of the Marcott, et al. (2013) proxies. In this post, we will present two more reconstructions, one for the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (60°S to 30°S) and another for the tropics (30°S to 30°N)
Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity thus far, likely the lowest in 100 years. The F10.7 flux shows that over the last three and a half years the Sun has gone from solar maximum through a bounded decline to the current stage of the trail to minimum. Solar minimum is likely to be still three years away.
The EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased in 2015 for the first time since 2010.
According to new data published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the 0.5% increase happened largely due to increasing demand for transport – better fuel efficiency in the sector was not enough to offset this.
A statement submitted to the ARD Capital Studio, the “Berliner Kreis (Berlin Circle)”, which includes numerous federal and communal politicians of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), calls for an end to “moral blackmail” by climate research and a “farewell to unilateral German CO2 targets.”
on Fox News, in Climate Change Dispatch , June 5, 2017
Former Vice President Al Gore was forced to admit on Sunday that the UN Paris climate accord was a symbolic effort and merely “sends a very powerful signal.” Gore once again spun a series of climate falsehoods in just a few short sound bites
by Clives James, The Australian in GWPF, June 6, 2017
Actually, a more illustrative starting point for the theme of the permanently imminent climatic apocalypse might be taken as August 3, 1971, when The Sydney Morning Herald announced that the Great Barrier Reef would be dead in six months.
After six months the reef had not died, but it has been going to die almost as soon as that ever since, making it a strangely durable emblem for all those who have wedded themselves to the notion of climate catastrophe.
Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.
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Where is the paper published?
The peer-reviewed paper is published in the upcoming issue of Global Policy journal (November 2015). You can access the article online here.
In a joint US-German study, seven scientists recently tried to discredit the sun’s impact on climate. On April 19, 2017, Guoyong Wen and colleagues published a modeling study in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, which suggested a maximum solar-dependent share of 0.1°C on the temperature development over the past 400 years. Here the scientists relied on the old, well-known trick of using the Little Ice Age as the starting.
Prospère de nos jours le climatisme est sans conteste le plus formidable dispositif idéologique de ce début de XXIe siècle. Et si on posait la question de son financement et de sa réalité scientifique ?
Summer is here, and climate alarmists are about to bombard us with claims that global warming is going to burn us up. The data shows the exact opposite. There are 693 USHCN stations which were active in both 1920 and 2016. I ran statistics on this stable group of stations.
The average summer maximum temperature in the US is down about one degree since the 1920’s.
Contributors to Climate Change: The Facts 2017 do not conform to a unitary view. As I explain in the book’s introduction:
“An advantage of my approach in the compiling of the chapters for this book – an approach where there has been no real attempt to put everything into neat boxes – is that there are many surprises. I am referring to the snippets of apparently anomalous information scattered through the chapters. These can, hopefully, one day, be reconciled. As this occurs, we may begin to see the emergence of a coherent theory of climate – where output from computer-simulation models bears some resemblance to real-world measurements that have not first been ‘homogenised’.
“Ceux qui me font l’honneur (et le plaisir) de suivre ma page Facebook “belgotopia” suivent ma rubrique : “Dans l’hilarante série, les délires climatiques” dans laquelle je distille à doses homéopathiques toutes les épouvantables conséquences du réchauffement climatique. Celles-ci sont publiées soit dans des médias, soit dans des revues scientifiques dont on ne peut mettre le sérieux en doute.
Etant arrivé au centième, j’en fais ici une compilation. J’ en ai encore un nombre considérable en réserve !”
The Marcott, et al. 2013 worldwide reconstruction has its problems, but many of the proxies used in the reconstruction are quite good and very usable.
The Antarctic reconstruction created here is comparable to previous temperature reconstructions, especially those focusing on eastern Antarctica. It shows two climatic optima, one from 11500 BP to 9000 BP and another from 6000 BP to 3000 BP. In eastern Antarctica, using our proxies, the later optimum is warmer. But, in other areas the earlier optimum is warmer, however, the difference is small
It has long been established in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that naturally-driven fluctuations in the Earth’s surface temperature preceded the rise and fall of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations for at least the last 800,000 years.
The sun has looked remarkably blank lately, with few dark cores interrupting the featureless solar disk. This is a sign that Solar Minimum is coming. Indeed, sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011.
by Phil J. Watson, Journal of Coastal research, May 2017
Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.
The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Bret Stephens’ climate change op-ed of several weeks ago Climate of Complete Certainty spawned a number of articles related to uncertainty and climate change.
Today marks the 6th day in a row that the sun is blank and the 36th time this year – already more spotless days than all of 2016. In what has turned out to be a historically weak solar cycle (#24), the sun continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum.
The eminent scientist Stephen Koonin has stated that, ‘Today’s best estimate of the sensitivity [of the atmosphere to the addition of carbon dioxide]… is no different, and no more certain, than it was 30 years ago. And this is despite an heroic research effort costing billions of dollars.’
Arctic amplification is a robust feature of climate response to global warming, with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. A long-standing mystery is that a pronounced Arctic warming occurred during the early 20th century when the rate of interdecadal change in radiative forcing was much weaker than at present. Here, using observations and model experiments, we show that the combined effect of internally generated Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variabilities intensified the Arctic land warming in the early 20th century.
Just within the last 5 months, 58 more papers and 80 new graphs have been published that continue to undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.
A new global assessment reveals that increases in leaf abundance are causing boreal areas to warm and arid regions to cool. The results suggest that recent changes in global vegetation have had impacts on local climates that should be considered in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse
