Jude Clemente’s energy articles on Real Clear Energy and Forbes are always worth reading.
Key takeaways:
Major oil company (particularly European majors) predictions of a near-term peak in oil demand are 99.999% driven by politics and the need to appease the investment community.
According to baseball legend, the late, great Yogi Berra, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” So, make sure your timeline is long enough to evade having to take responsibility for failed predictions.
Malthuisan predictions have a 100% track record of being wrong.
by P. Homewood, March 7, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
The renewable lobby often claims that the rising cost of fossil fuels will help make renewable energy competitive.
However, oil and gas prices remain stubbornly uncooperative. Gas prices in particular are back down to levels seen last spring, after peaking last autumn.
As is usually the way, power prices have followed the same pattern.
Oil and gas are very much cyclical markets. When supply is tight, prices rise, thus attracting more investment to increase production.
Prices therefore fall, cutting profitability and new investment, and setting the whole cycle back in motion again.
How long supply can keep meeting ever rising demand is a moot point. But there is little sign of anything changing in the foreseeable future.
And the U.S. is not alone in trying to maximize oil and gas production. Despite the financial failures of the U.S. fracking industry, international efforts to duplicate the American fracking story are ramping up across the globe.
The CEO of Saudi Arabian state oil company Aramco recently dismissed the idea that global demand for oil will decrease anytime soon and urged the oil industry to “push back on exaggerated theories like peak oil demand.”
Khalid al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, told the Financial Times, “Going forward the world is going to be Saudi Aramco’s playground.” But not if other countries frack there first.
China Expanding Fracking Efforts, Testing New Technology
by P. Homewood, March 1, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies, reports the World Coal Association.
The South Asian giant is home to one-fifth of the world’s population and an additional 315 million people – almost the population of the United States today – are expected to live in India’s cities by 2040.
Since 2010, the country’s GDP has grown at an annual average of 6.8% and it is projected to surpass Germany at some stage in the 2020s to become the fourth largest in the world, and Japan sometime around 2040 to become the third.
Cyprus and ExxonMobil on Thursday announced a gas find estimated between 5-8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in an offshore field inside the island’s exclusive economic zone.
The discovery was made in the Glafcos (Glaucus) 1 well in Block 10 of the EEZ.
“Based on preliminary interpretation of the well data, the discovery could represent an in-place natural gas resource of approximately 5 trillion to 8 trillion cubic feet (142 billion to 227 billion cubic metres). Further analysis in the coming months will be required to better determine the resource potential,” the company said in a statement.
Le paysage énergétique du globe et de la France a peu changé durant les siècles antérieurs au 19ème siècle. Napoléon et César se déplaçaient, s’éclairaient, se chauffaient, s’habillaient à peu près de la même façon. Depuis le début du 19ème siècle, en revanche, ce paysage change rapidement et radicalement. Les énergies traditionnelles (hommes, animaux, vent, eau) ont été presque éliminées, et remplacées par des énergies nouvelles (charbon, pétrole, électricité, nucléaire). Dans le domaine des transports, par exemple, la marche à pied, le cheval et le bateau à voile ont été supplantés par le chemin de fer, puis l’automobile, puis l’avion, et par le bateau à moteur. Ces changements ont largement contribués à l’extraordinaire amélioration du niveau de vie enregistrée au cours des deux derniers siècles, dans les pays dits développés d’abord, puis, depuis un demi-siècle dans les pays dits en développement.
China’s coal mine methane regulations have not curbed growing emissions
Abstract
Anthropogenic methane emissions from China are likely greater than in any other country in the world. The largest fraction of China’s anthropogenic emissions is attributable to coal mining, but these emissions may be changing; China enacted a suite of regulations for coal mine methane (CMM) drainage and utilization that came into full effect in 2010. Here, we use methane observations from the GOSAT satellite to evaluate recent trends in total anthropogenic and natural emissions from Asia with a particular focus on China. We find that emissions from China rose by 1.1 ± 0.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 from 2010 to 2015, culminating in total anthropogenic and natural emissions of 61.5 ± 2.7 Tg CH4 in 2015. The observed trend is consistent with pre-2010 trends and is largely attributable to coal mining. These results indicate that China’s CMM regulations have had no discernible impact on the continued increase in Chinese methane emissions.
La stratégie des anciens président iranien et vénézuélien – Ahmadinejad et Chavez comme Maduro à sa suite – qui rêvaient de mettre à genoux les États-Unis grâce à leurs réserves de pétrole, a lamentablement échoué. Qui plus est, l’Iran et le Venezuela ne sont pas des pays où il fait bon vivre…
Scientists have developed an ‘energy rod’ that can fire multiple shock waves to frack sedimentary rock at depths of up to 3.5km
China has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas but current mining technology makes most of it inaccessible
China is planning to apply the same technology used to detonate a nuclear bomb over Hiroshima during the second world war to access its massive shale gas reserves in Sichuan province. While success would mean a giant leap forward not only for the industry but also Beijing’s energy self-sufficiency ambitions, some observers are concerned about the potential risk of widespread drilling for the fuel in a region known for its devastating earthquakes.
Despite being home to the largest reserves of shale gas on the planet – about 31.6 trillion cubic metres according to 2015 figures from the US Energy Information Administration, or twice as much as the United States and Australia combined – China is the world’s biggest importer of natural gas, with about 40 per cent of its annual requirement coming from overseas.
La révolution bolivarienne financée par le pétrole a complètement appauvri le Venezuela. Les idéologues socialistes avaient tout faux depuis le début.
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Le paradoxe est encore plus étrange car le pays est très riche en ressources naturelles. Avec 303 milliards de barils (18 % du total mondial), le Venezuela détient les plus grandes réserves prouvées de brut au monde, loin devant l’Arabie Saoudite qui en possède 266. Pour mesurer leur ampleurs, observons que ces réserves correspondent à celles combinées de la Russie, des États-Unis et de l’Iran. Il possède également 6 400 milliards de m3 de gaz naturel – 3,3 % des réserves mondiales – soit près de quatre fois les réserves de la Norvège, considérée en Europe comme un grand du gaz.
La plupart des réserves de pétrole prouvées du Venezuela sont situées dans le bassin du fleuve Orinoco, où 220,5 milliards de barils de pétrole lourd gisent, pratiquement inexploités. Même s’il n’est pas de première qualité, c’est quand même du pétrole. La principale zone de production se trouve dans le bassin de Maracaibo, où l’on pompe près de 50 % du pétrole vénézuélien.
From the LA times, a bold move, but unlikely they can pull it off.
Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy
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The decision to quit coal follows an earlier bold energy policy move by the German government, which decided to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011.
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The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. By 2030, Germany should have about eight coal-burning plants remaining, producing 17 gigawatts of electricity, the commission said.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s December coal output climbed 2.1 percent from the year before, government data showed, hitting the highest level in over three years as major miners ramped up production amid robust winter demand and after the country started up new mines.
Après trois années de baisse, les émissions américaines de CO2 liées à l’énergie auraient augmenté de 3,4% en 2018 selon les dernières estimations du cabinet Rhodium Group. Explications.
Une hausse des émissions malgré la baisse de consommation de charbon
Les émissions américaines de CO2 liées à l’énergie auraient connu en 2018 (+ 3,4%) leur deuxième plus forte hausse annuelle des deux dernières décennies, après 2010 (+ 3,8% dans un contexte de reprise économique après la crise de 2008) selon les dernières estimations de Rhodium Group publiées le 8 janvier.
La consommation de charbon a pourtant significativement baissé aux États-Unis en 2018 selon l’EIA. Dans le secteur électrique, le « King Coal » s’efface peu à peu au profit du gaz naturel, plus compétitif (avec l’exploitation du gaz de schiste) : la part du charbon dans la production nationale d’électricité aurait atteint 28% en 2018 (et pourrait encore diminuer à 26% en 2019), contre 35% pour le gaz naturel selon le Short-Term Energy Outlook de l’EIA publié en décembre dernier.
Du gaz et du pétrole de schiste sont découverts à profusion dans le monde, notamment aux États-Unis. Qui en parle dans nos grands media ? Serait-ce politiquement incorrect de l’évoquer ?
LE SUCCÈS DU PARI DU GAZ ET DU PÉTROLE DE SCHISTE
Le Texas aux États-Unis regorge de pétrole et de gaz de schiste au point que les gazoducs existants sont saturés ! Le gaz doit même être « torché » ou « éventé ».
En attendant la mise en service de nouvelles capacités de transport, la production doit être réduite faute de pouvoir exporter les quantités extraites. La production de pétrole de schiste doit aussi être réduite en parallèle car il est extrait avec le gaz (et vice-versa).
Des projets sont en développement pour évacuer le gaz vers le Golfe du Mexique pour le liquéfier (GPL) et pouvoir ainsi l’exporter par bateau méthanier.
PREMIER PRODUCTEUR DE PÉTROLE
Les États-Unis ont dépassé la Russie et l’Arabie Saoudite pour devenir le premier producteur de pétrole brut en 2018 a annoncé l’agence américaine de l’énergie (EIA).
Après avoir stagné autour de 6 millions de barils par jour (Mb/j) en moyenne de 1933 à 2013, la production a grimpé à 9,4 Mb/j en 2017, puis à 10,4 Mb/j en 2018, et elle passera à 11,5 Mb/j 2019.
La surabondance de gaz de schiste associé à l’extraction du pétrole de schiste a fait chuter les prix au terminal gazier à l’ouest du Texas jusqu’à 1 dollar par million d’unité thermique britannique (dollar/MM-Btu), alors qu’il vaut 13 à 14 dollars/MM-Btu sur le marché européen.
China has said it will not approve wind and solar power projects unless they can compete with coal power prices.
Beijing pulled the plug on support for large solar projects, which had been receiving a per kWh payment, in late May. That news came immediately after the country’s largest solar industry event and caught everyone by surprise.
Officials are understood to have been frustrated at seeing Chinese suppliers and engineering firms building solar projects overseas that delivered electricity at prices far below what was available back home.
A booming economy. GDP growth during the first 2 years of the Trump administration has been about 50% higher than that of Obama’s eight-year maladministration.
Our manufacturing sector is booming.
A cold winter.
A booming economy drove up trucking and air travel.
Electricity demand increased and most of the increasing was powered by natural gas because renewables couldn’t even keep up with no growth.
The Appalachian Basin is driving growth of record-shattering U.S. natural gas production, which in turn has helped spur more than $25 billion in natural gas electricity generation investment in the region. In fact, there are 29 new 475-megawatt (MW) or greater natural gas-fired power plants that are in various stages of permitting, under construction or have recently become operational in Ohio (10), Pennsylvania (16) and West Virginia (3), representing more than 26,000 MW of added electric capacity, more than 17,000 jobs during construction and incredible emissions reductions in the electricity sector.
Trois jours après la clôture de la COP24, l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) a publié le 18 décembre son rapport annuel consacré au charbon. Elle y souligne le rôle central de cette énergie au niveau mondial et estime que sa consommation globale devrait rester stable dans les 5 prochaines années. Explications.
La consommation de charbon encore appelée à augmenter en Inde et en Asie du Sud-Est
Après deux années de baisse, la consommation mondiale de charbon a augmenté de près de 1% en 2017 et cette hausse devrait se poursuivre en 2018 selon les dernières estimations de l’AIE. Principalement consommé à des fins de production électrique(1), le charbon a encore compté pour 38% de la production mondiale d’électricité en 2017.
Dans son rapport Coal 2018, l’AIE estime que la consommation mondiale de charbon pourrait rester stable d’ici à 2023 : la baisse de la demande envisagée en Europe et en Amérique du Nord serait plus que compensée par une forte croissance de la consommation en Inde et en Asie du Sud-Est selon les prévisions de l’Agence.
Belgium’s electricity supply has become a serious problem. Without investment in new generation capacity, the security of electricity supply will deteriorate in the next few years. However, the country’s situation does not lend itself to optimism on this topic. Belgium is not a straightforward country. Its institutional structure can only be described as one of […] The post The Belgian electricity industry in chaos (https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/features/the-belgian-electricity-industry-in-chaos/) appeared first on European Scientist (https://www.europeanscientist.com/en)
Last year, we gave out five blazing predictions as we stepped into a brand new 2018. And, how did we fare? Well, the year isn’t new anymore but we did get 5 out of 5 of our predictions right! Self-congratulations are in order reaffirming why you read us. For 2019, really it’s more of the same, but with some caveats. Investors, listen. Readers, pay heed, we are about to deconstruct the next year. As audacious as it sounds, here are our 4 oil price predictions for 2019:
Despite oil accounting for a whopping 90% of Venezuela’s export earnings, President Maduro, a fervent supporter of the Paris Agreement, has courageously put principle before profits by implementing his version of a new green deal. Maduro has eliminated the capitalist exploiters from his nation’s oil industry, and replaced them with loyal army officers who are rapidly dismantling the infrastructure left behind by the capitalists.
The L. A. Times published an article addressing a panel discussion at the latest U.N. climate alarmist confab in Poland touting protests by attendees regarding the need for continued use of fossil fuels.
The “amazing” thing is that this isn’t a “new” oil discovery. It’s just a realization that a lot more oil and gas can be produced from these formations than was previously imagined.
The Permian Basin a nearly infinite resource. It seems as if there will always be more hydrocarbons to squeeze out of its numerous oil & gas reservoirs. From a Warmunist perspective the Bone Spring and Wolfcamp are much worse than previously thought…
While there’s little cobalt mining in China itself (1 percent of the world’s total output in 2017), Chinese companies have snapped up cobalt mines abroad in recent years, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest source of the metal.
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse
