by Jim Hoft, November 17, 2018 in GatewayPundit
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Archives de catégorie : better to know…?
#CampFire #WoolseyFire Blaming climate – ignoring incompetence
by Paul Driessen, November 18, 2018 in WUWT
Foreword:
Over 8,000 homes and businesses have been reduced to ashes and rubble by the latest California conflagrations. Well over 60 people have perished, over 50,000 are homeless, hundreds remain missing. “This is the new abnormal,” Governor Jerry Brown insists. “Dryness, warmth, drought, all those things are going to intensify,” because of climate change. Even if we do more on forest management, that won’t stop climate change. “And those who deny that are definitely contributing to the tragedies.”
Those assertions have no basis in fact. The hard, incontrovertible reality is that California has always been a largely arid state, afflicted by prolonged droughts, interspersed with periods of intense rainfall, and buffeted almost every autumn by strong winds that can whip forest fires into infernos. The problem isn’t climate change. It’s ideological, even criminally incompetent forest management practices demanded by politicians, regulators, judges and environmentalists in recent decades. My article presents the real story.
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Scientists” Determine That the Worst Year in Human History Was… 536 AD.
by David Middleton, November 17, 2018 in WUWT
Why 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’
By Ann Gibbons Nov. 15, 2018
Ask medieval historian Michael McCormick what year was the worst to be alive, and he’s got an answer: “536.” Not 1349, when the Black Death wiped out half of Europe. Not 1918, when the flu killed 50 million to 100 million people, mostly young adults. But 536. In Europe, “It was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year,” says McCormick, a historian and archaeologist who chairs the Harvard University Initiative for the Science of the Human Past.
A mysterious fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night—for 18 months. “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year,” wrote Byzantine historian Procopius. Temperatures in the summer of 536 fell 1.5°C to 2.5°C, initiating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell that summer in China; crops failed; people starved. The Irish chronicles record “a failure of bread from the years 536–539.” Then, in 541, bubonic plague struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. What came to be called the Plague of Justinian spread rapidly, wiping out one-third to one-half of the population of the eastern Roman Empire and hastening its collapse, McCormick says.
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MATH ERROR: Scientists Admit ‘Mistakes’ Led To Alarming Results In Major Global Warming Study
by M. Bastasch, November 14, 2018 in WUWT/DailyCaller
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Scientists behind a headline-grabbing climate study admitted they “really muffed” their paper.
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Their study claimed to find 60 percent more warming in the oceans, but that was based on math errors.
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The errors were initially spotted by scientist Nic Lewis, who called them “serious (but surely inadvertent) errors.”
The scientists behind a headline-grabbing global warming study did something that seems all too rare these days — they admitted to making mistakes and thanked the researcher, a global warming skeptic, who pointed them out.
“When we were confronted with his insight it became immediately clear there was an issue there,” study co-author Ralph Keeling told The San Diego Union-Tribune on Tuesday.
Their study, published in October, used a new method of measuring ocean heat uptake and found the oceans had absorbed 60 more heat than previously thought. Many news outlets relayed the findings, but independent scientist Nic Lewis quickly found problems with the study.
Keeling, a scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, owned up to the mistake and thanked Lewis for finding it. Keeling and his co-authors submitted a correction to the journal Nature. (RELATED: Headline-Grabbing Global Warming Study Suffers From A Major Math Error)…
Environmental Impacts Of Drilling For Geothermal Energy
by P. Homewood, November 9, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
What are the environmental impacts?
Generally the environmental impact of geothermal developments is extremely low. There are virtually no emissions and land use and visual impact are small. However, some potential impacts do need to be considered and information on each of these issues is set out in the sections below.
All these issues will be fully considered as part of the planning process. Cornwall Council has worked with the industry to develop robust Supplementary Planning Guidance to ensure risks are mitigated and minimised. In addition to planning permission, projects must also obtain the necessary licenses from the Environment Agency.
What is the risk of earth tremors (induced seismicity)?
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Another failure of peer review, due to corrupt temperature data from a single station
by Anthony Watts, November 7, 2018 in WUWT
A new study, based on 27 years of data from Mana Pools National Park in Zimbabwe, suggests that temperature increases over the last three decades have already caused major declines in local populations of tsetse flies.
This analysis, published in the journal PLOS Medicine this week, provides a first step in linking temperature to the risk of sleeping sickness in Africa.
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My analysis
A model for fly population mortality is only as good as the temperature data used to run the model. It appears they only used one source of temperature data, the only one available to them, the Rekomitjie Research Station.
Interestingly, this helpful photo was also included in the press release from Eurekalert. It is the weather station used to monitor climate at the Rekomitjie Research Station, Zimbabwe. I provide it below, click for full-size. At the scale displayed above, you might not notice some important details about the weather station itself, but I did. Here it is, magnified: …
Quality Control Sorely Needed In Climate Science: Half Of Peer-Reviewed Results Non-Replicable, Flawed.
by K. Richard, November 8, 2018 in NoTricksZone
“A number of biases internal and external to the scientific community contribute to perpetuating the perception of ocean calamities in the absence of robust evidence.” – Duarte et al., 2015
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Within a matter of days after the press release for a newly published Nature paperspewed the usual it’s-worse-than-we-thought headlines throughout the alarmosphere (Washington Post, BBC, New York Times), the paper’s results were assessed to have “major problems” by an author of multiple CO2 climate sensitivity papers (Lewis and Curry, 2015, 2018).
A glaring miscalculation was quickly spotted that changed not only the results, but consequently undermined the conclusion that estimates of climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 may be too low.
And yet the paper was able to pass through peer review anyway.
The Economics of the IPCC’s Special Report on Limiting Temperatures to 1.5 °C
by Ken B. Gregory, P. Eng., October 31, 2018 in FriendsofScience
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report (hereafter called SR15) on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels on October 8, 2018. The report says the cost of mitigating CO2 emissions in 2030 to prevent temperatures from exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is about 880 US$2010 per tonne of CO2 ($/tCO2). The benefit of doing so, according to the report, is 15 $/tCO2. Using a climate sensitivity based on observations including effects of natural climate change, urban warming and the best available economic model, the mitigation proposal will prevent a benefit of 8.2 $/t CO2, for a total loss of 888 $/tCO2 mitigated. In other words, each $1000 spent on mitigation of CO2 emissions will cause another loss $9.20.
The SR15, presents various emissions pathways to limit the projected rise of temperatures from pre- industrial times, estimated to be the temperature average from 1850 to 1900, to the year 2100, and to limit the temperature rise to 2.0 °C by 2100. According to the IPCC, temperatures have increased by about 1.0 °C from pre-industrial times to 2017. Therefore, the emissions pathways to limit warming allows only 0.5 °C temperature rise from 2017, assuming there is no natural caused climate change.
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See also here
Do Doomsters Know How Much Global Surface Temperatures Cycle Annually
by Bob Tisdale, November 5, 2018 in WUWT
Alternate Title: The Annual Cycle in Global Land+Ocean Surface Temperature IS Far Greater Than 1.5 Deg C, AND Much-Much-MUCH Greater Than 1.5 Deg C Annually for Global Land Air Surface Temperatures
We all were taught early in school that the Earth orbits the Sun…that its path is elliptical…that because of the tilt in Earth’s axis of rotation, we have seasons as the Earth orbits our star annually. Because of the elliptical orbit, and because the ratios of land to ocean are different between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, we might expect that global average surface temperatures would vary over the course of a year.
Later in life we’ve been brow beaten with alarmism about human-induced global warming and climate change…that the Earth will become a literal—not figurative—hell if global surface temperatures rise—formerly 2-deg C—now 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. But does the average person know much global surface temperatures vary annually as it orbits the Sun? It’s unlikely, because I’ve never before seen graphs that are similar to what’s presented in this post or seen it discussed in any of the global warming literature. Am I expecting most persons to find this information to be of any interest? Nope. I simply find it noteworthy that, as I mentioned before, I’ve never seen it presented anywhere. In fact, I just Googled, in quotes, “How Much Do Global Surface Temperatures Cycle Annually?” and Google replied (their boldface), “No results found for “How Much Do Global Surface Temperatures Cycle Annually?”.
Remarkable, is it not, in these times of global warming interest?
Enough with the preamble and on to the meat of the post:
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Why China Indirectly Controls EV Markets
by Haley Zaremba, November 4, 2018 in OilPrice
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China produces about two thirds of the whole world’s supply of lithium ion batteries, the most common battery type used in electric vehicles. Furthermore, these highly valuable batteries make up a staggering 40 percent of the cars’ value. As it stands, Europe is far from being able to compete with China when it comes to the production of lithium ion batteries. In fact, currently the entire continent is estimated to hold just 1 percent of the market.
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‘It’s a ghost page’: EPA site’s climate change section may be gone for good
by Oliver Milman, November 1, 2018 in TheGuardian
More than a year after the US Environmental Protection Agency took down information on climate change from its website for an “update”, it now seems uncertain whether it will ever reappear.
In April last year, the EPA replaced its online climate change section with a holding page that said the content was being updated to “reflect the agency’s new direction under President Donald Trump”.
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Only 16 countries meet their commitment to Paris Agreement, new study finds
by Claire Stam, October 29, 2018 in Euractiv
Only sixteen countries out of the 197 that have signed the Paris Agreement have defined national climate action plan ambitious enough to meet their pledges, according to a policy brief released on Monday (29 October), ahead of the crucial UN climate conference COP24 in Katowice (Poland) in December.
The 16 countries are: Algeria, Canada, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, FYR Macedonia, Malaysia, Montenegro, Norway, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Samoa, Singapore and Tonga.
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What the Economic Models of Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus Say on Climate Change
by Robert P. Murphy, October 22, 2018 in The IndependantInstitute/FEE
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Conclusion
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First, Nordhaus shows that aggressive mitigation policies can be a cure worse than the disease, and he specifically includes the United Nation’s latest goal in his examples of such misguided goals. Second, Nordhaus’s estimate of the optimal carbon tax (for the year 2025, for example) has almost tripled in less than a decade. Third, far from being tied to specific analyses of particular threats, Nordhaus’s global damage estimate was largely driven by a simple survey of experts, and this figure was furthermore manipulated arbitrarily by Nordhaus in light of new developments. The public would be very surprised to learn just how crude the “settled science” underlying various proposals to limit climate change really is.
Observations: Polar Bears Continue To Thrive, Grow In Number, Shredding Forecasts Of Climate Doom
by K. Richard, October 25, 2018 in NoTricksZone
Ten years ago, polar bears were classified as an endangered species due to model-based assumptions that said the recession of Arctic sea ice would hamper the bears’ seal-hunting capabilities and ultimately lead to starvation and extinction.
The Inuit, who have observed these bears catch seals in open water for generations, disagree. At least this is what scientists have found upon investigation.
“There is no evidence that the fast reduction of sea-ice habitat in the area has yet led to a reduction in population size.” (Aars et al., 2017 )
Inuit observations: “… back in early 80s, and mid 90s, there were hardly any bears … there’s too many polar bears now. Bears can catch seals even—even if the—if the ice is really thin … they’re great hunters those bears … they’re really smart … they know how to survive.” (Wong et al., 2017)
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See also here
NASA releases photo of weird rectangular iceberg
by Anthony Watts, October 23, 2018 in WUWT
Operation IceBridge, NASA’s longest-running aerial survey of polar ice, carried a flight over the northern Antarctic Peninsula on Oct. 16, 2018. During the flight, IceBridge senior support scientist Jeremy Harbeck spotted two rectangular icebergs floating among sea ice just off of the Larsen C ice shelf.
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Le réchauffement climatique pour les deux cultures
by Richard Lindzen, 21 octobre 2018, Conférence GWPF, in Skyfall
Traduction par Volauvent.
Il y a plus d’un demi-siècle, C.P. Snow (romancier et physicien anglais qui a également occupé plusieurs postes importants dans la fonction publique britannique et brièvement au sein du gouvernement britannique) a examiné de manière célèbre les implications de « deux cultures » :
Bien des fois, j’ai assisté à des rassemblements de personnes qui, selon les normes de la culture traditionnelle, sont considérées comme très éduquées et qui ont exprimé leur incrédulité face à l’analphabétisme des scientifiques. Une ou deux fois, j’ai été provoqué et j’ai demandé à la compagnie combien d’entre eux pourraient décrire la deuxième loi de la thermodynamique. Ils répondaient froidement : c’était aussi toujours négatif. Pourtant, je demandais quelque chose qui était l’équivalent scientifique de : avez-vous lu un ouvrage de Shakespeare ?
Je crois maintenant que si j’avais posé une question encore plus simple – telle que : que voulez-vous dire par masse ou accélération, qui est l’équivalent scientifique de : pouvez-vous lire ? – pas plus d’un diplômé sur dix aurait eu l’impression que je parlais la même langue que lui. Ainsi, le grand édifice de la physique moderne se construit, et la majorité des personnes les plus intelligentes du monde occidental en ont à peu près le même aperçu que leurs ancêtres néolithiques en auraient eu.
Je crains que peu de choses n’aient changé depuis l’évaluation de Snow, il y a 60 ans. Certains pourraient soutenir que l’ignorance de la physique n’a pas d’incidence sur la capacité politique, mais elle a très certainement une incidence sur la capacité des politiciens non scientifiques à traiter des problèmes théoriquement fondés sur la science. Le manque de compréhension est également une invitation à l’exploitation malveillante. Compte tenu de la nécessité démocratique pour les non-scientifiques de prendre position sur des problèmes scientifiques, la croyance et la foi remplacent inévitablement la compréhension, même si des récits simplifiés à outrance de façon triviale rassurent les non-scientifiques sur le fait qu’ils ne sont pas totalement dénués de « compréhension scientifique ». Le sujet du « réchauffement global » offre de nombreux exemples de tout cela.
Je voudrais commencer cette conférence par une tentative visant à forcer les scientifiques du public à se familiariser avec la nature réelle du système climatique et à aider les non-scientifiques motivés de ce public susceptibles de faire partie du groupe « Un sur dix » de Snow à aller au-delà des simplifications excessivement triviales.
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Pas d’erreurs pour l’Arctique!
by Paul Berth, 21 octobre 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie
Comme mentionné dans un article précédent, le DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) publie régulièrement l’évolution temporelle, mois par mois, de l’étendue de la glace de l’Arctique en millions de km2. Le dernier graphique publié (Fig. 1) nous montre l’étendue de la glace au mois de septembre entre 1979 et 2018 (c’est au mois de septembre que l’étendue de glace arctique est la plus faible, moins de 10 millions de km2). Une droite, dont la pente est négative, est tracée parmi les points : tous les 10 ans, la surface semble diminuer de 11,4%. Si l’on extrapole la droite ont peut calculer qu’il n’y aura plus de glace en Arctique dans 60 ans. Cependant, ne remarquez-vous rien d’étrange sur ce graphique?
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LES EVENEMENTS CLIMATIQUES EXTREMES DU PASSE (19)
by John Moreau, 20 octobre 2018 in Belgotopia
« Le contenu de la mémoire est fonction de la vitesse de l’oubli »
Désormais, chaque inondation quelque peu catastrophique, chaque tornade, chaque anomalie météorologique est rattachée au réchauffement climatique qui parait-il nous menace, mais dont en plus l’homme serait responsable !
Pourtant, la consultation de chroniques ou récits anciens est révélatrice de précédents tout aussi apocalyptiques, et relativise la notion même de « changements climatiques », ainsi que la définition d’un « climat stable » qui n’a jamais existé mais qu’on voudrait instaurer à tout prix.
AUX ENVIRONS DE 1850, FIN DU « PETIT AGE GLACIAIRE » et début d’un réchauffement du climat, surtout perceptible en hiver.
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Pour l’ensemble des épisodes :
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-1/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/04/01/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-2/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/04/15/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-3/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/05/05/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-4/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-5/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/06/15/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-6/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/06/24/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-7/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/08/20/sur-les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-8/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/09/04/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-dans-lhistoire-9/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/09/30/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-10/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-11/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2015/11/25/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-12/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-13/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-14/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2017/05/23/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-15/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2017/09/04/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-16/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-17/
https://belgotopia.wordpress.com/2018/03/25/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-18/
https://belgotopia.com/2018/10/20/les-evenements-climatiques-extremes-du-passe-19/
Claim: Air Pollution, Not Greenhouse Gases, Is the Main Cause of Global Warming
by Anthony Watts, October 19, 2018 in WUWT
NOTE: I don’t necessarily agree with this [at all], but I thought it worth exposing – Anthony
In a recent article in the Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, Transdyne Corporation geoscientist J. Marvin Herndon makes the startling claim that climate scientists, including the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have been chasing the wrong culprit for global warming and climate change.
From the article, “Fig. 3 is a copy of [Gottschalk’s] Fig. 2 to which has been added three relative-value proxies that represent major activities that produce particulate pollution.”
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The IPCC’s Cynical Ploy
by Donna Laframboise, October 15, 2018 in BigPictureNews
The latest IPCC report was a setup – a cynical ploy to produce alarmist media headlines that succeeded beautifully.
Seven days ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a press release along with a summary of its new Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.
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Le catastrophisme climatique des années 60 à 80 à l’épreuve des faits
by Cédric Moro, 15 octobre 2018 in MythesMancies&Mathématiques
Les discours alarmistes sur le climat ne datent pas d’hier. Grâce à la numérisation des archives audio-visuelles et à leur mise en ligne sur internet, il est possible aujourd’hui de démentir les prévisions climato-catastrophistes assénées de manière très officielle dans la deuxième moitié du siècle dernier. Beaucoup des déformations de nos discours sur la réalité tendent à puiser leurs racines dans nos représentations mentales du monde. Nous verrons donc que ces représentations alarmistes naissent dans un contexte idéologique nouveau : mutation de l’eugénisme, collapsologisme et décroissance.
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Lessons from Dutch geological history might be useful for other present-day deltas
by Geological Society of America, October 9, 2018 in ScienceDaily
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Even long before medieval inhabitants reclaimed land and raised dykes at a large scale, humans have had a strong impact on river behavior in the Dutch delta plain. Physical geographers have demonstrated that two present Rhine branches developed stepwise in the first centuries CE, because of two combined man-induced effects.
La baisse de l’activité solaire conduit la NASA à annoncer un refroidissement climatique
by Anne Dolhein, 2 october 2018 in Reinformation.TV
La NASA – peu suspecte de climato-scepticisme – s’appuie sur de nouveaux résultats d’observations de température aux confins de l’atmosphère terrestre pour annoncer un refroidissement notable dans ces zones, lié à l’un des minima solaires les plus importants de l’ère spatiale. Il s’agit très clairement d’un refroidissement climatique entraîné par la baisse de l’activité solaire, confirmant le rôle important sinon prépondérant du soleil sur les variations de température de la planète.
« Nous constatons une tendance au refroidissement », vient ainsi de déclarer Martin Mlynczak, chercheur principal associé du centre de recherches Langley de la NASA. « Très loin de la surface de la terre, près du bord de l’espace, notre atmosphère perd de l’énergie calorifique. Si les tendances actuelles se poursuivent, on pourrait bientôt atteindre un record de froid pour notre ère spatiale », a-t-il affirmé.
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Daily Averages? Not So Fast…
by Kip Hansen, October 2, 2018 in WUWT
In the comment section of my most recent essay concerning GAST (Global Average Surface Temperature) anomalies (and why it is a method for Climate Science to trick itself) — it was brought up [again] that what Climate Science uses for the Daily Average temperature from any weather station is not, as we would have thought, the average of the temperatures recorded for the day (all recorded temperatures added to one another divided by the number of measurements) but are, instead, the Daily Maximum Temperature (Tmax) plus the Daily Low Temperature (Tmin) added and divided by two. It can be written out as (Tmax + Tmin)/2.
Anyone versed in the various forms of averages will recognize the latter is actually the median of Tmax and Tmin — the midpoint between the two …
LES EPOUVANTABLES CONSEQUENCES DU RECHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE (2)
by Jo Moreau, October 2, 2018 in Belgotopia
Ceux qui me font l’honneur (et le plaisir) de suivre ma page Facebook « belgotopia » profitent de ma rubrique : « Dans l’hilarante série : les délires climatiques », qui distille à doses homéopathiques la litanie des épouvantables conséquences du réchauffement (changement) climatique qui nous menace.
Celles-ci sont extraites soit de médias, soit de revues scientifiques dont on ne peut décemment mettre le sérieux en doute, et contribuent à entretenir la peur parmi nos populations. Et ces études, ne l’oublions pas, sont financées par l’argent public, soit le vôtre et le mien.
Les cent premières furent rassemblées dans un billet, que je vous engage vivement à (re)consulter :
https://belgotopia.com/2017/06/02/les-epouvantables-consequences-du-changement-climatique/
Voici donc les cinquante suivantes, et j’en ai encore un nombre considérable en réserve, car nous sommes soumis à une véritable avalanche de constatations ou de prédictions terrifiantes !
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Alors, vous aussi, affolez-vous sans réserve !