by P. Homewood, March 29, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Just as a follow up to my earlier post on German GHG emissions, I have looked at the comparative energy consumption figures for 2009 and 2016 (…)
NASA finds something else climate models are missing…. forcing from ‘Secondary Organic Aerosols’
by Anthony Watts, March 27, 2018 in WUWT
A new paper published by NASA by Tsigaridis and Kanakidou suggests that climate models have missed the forcing effects of organic aerosols, such as VOC’s from trees, oceans, and other sources that combine chemically in the atmosphere to create new compounds. Known as Secondary organic aerosols (SOA), they say “SOA forcing could exceed that of sulfate and black carbon”.
Another Icon Of Global Warming Drowns
by Tony Heller, March 27, 2018 in CimateChangeDispatch
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The key to understanding this can be found in the 2004 Smithsonian article. The Tuvalu story (like everything else with global warming) has always been about left-wing politics and money, not science.
But not all scientists agree that Tuvalu’s future is underwater. Some critics have branded island leaders as opportunists angling for foreign handouts and special recognition for would-be “environmental refugees” who, they say, are exploiting the crisis to gain entry to New Zealand and Australia. Others have even said that people and organizations sympathetic to Tuvalu are “eco-imperialists” intent on imposing their alarmist environmental views on the rest of the world.
And of course the same fake story in the Maldives, which were supposed to be underwater by 2018.
Experimental Constraints on Forecasting the Location of Volcanic Eruptions from Pre-eruptive Surface Deformation
by F. Guldstrand et al., 2018 in Front.Earth.Sci.
Key Points
• We quantitatively analyse pre-eruptive intrusion-induced surface deformation from 33 scaled laboratory experiments resulting in eruptions.
• A robust proxy extracted from surface deformation geometry enables systematic predictions of the locations of a subsurface intrusion and imminent eruption.
• Forecasting an eruption location is possible without geodetic modeling but requires volcano monitoring at high spatiotemporal resolution.
#ParisAgreement climate accord fails – CO2 emissions growing worldwide- Trump vindicated for pulling out
by D. Wallace-Wells, March 26, 2018 in WUWT
Remember Paris? It was not even two years ago that the celebrated climate accords were signed — defining two degrees of global warming as a must-meet target and rallying all the world’s nations to meet it — and the returns are already dispiritingly grim.
This week, the International Energy Agency announced that carbon emissions grew 1.7 percent in 2017, after an ambiguous couple of years optimists hoped represented a leveling off, or peak; instead, we’re climbing again (…)
State of the Climate 2017
by Paul Homewood, March 27, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
The GWPF has published its State of the Climate 2017 Report, written by Ole Humlum, former Professor of Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, and Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Oslo, Norway.
Here are the main points:
• ……..
••••…..
Oil’s Seven Sisters Enter a ‘Golden Age’, Goldman Sachs Says
by Kelly Gilblom, March 26, 2018 in BloombergMarkets
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Big Oil’s weight in equity indices to rise from 50-year low
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Cost cuts, recovering oil prices put companies in a sweet spot
The world’s largest oil companies have survived a life-changing crisis, and are now poised to reap the rewards, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
Big Oil is in a sweet spot with rising oil prices and low operating costs, leaving them with the biggest cash-flow growth in two decades and boosting earnings, Goldman said in a report Monday. That will increase their attraction for investors after years of elevated spending followed by crude’s slump sent their weighting in global equity indexes to a 50-year low, according to the bank (…)
BBC Regrets Climate Error And Failure To Meet Usual Standards Of Reporting — Then Does It Again
by P. Homewood, March 2, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Everybody makes mistakes, and some of them matter. On the BBC’s News at Ten on the 18th January 2018 there were two of them, and the GWPF complained a few days later.
The first error was in describing the global temperature of 2017 as the “hottest year on record,” which it wasn’t.
The second mistake was that the BBC’s Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin said that, “2017 had no heating from El Nino,” which was also incorrect.
We pointed out that whilst 2017 was not designated a year in which there was an El Nino event (defined as a period with prolonged El Nino heating) there was in fact El Nino heating in the northern spring for 11 weeks, and we provided a graph to prove it. (Click on image to enlarge)(…)
LES EVENEMENTS CLIMATIQUES EXTREMES DU PASSE (18)
by Jo Moreau, 25 mars 2018 in Belgotopia
Suite n° 18. (anno 1800-1849)
“Le contenu de la mémoire est fonction de la vitesse de l’oubli”
Désormais, chaque inondation quelque peu catastrophique, chaque tornade, chaque anomalie météorologique est rattachée au réchauffement climatique qui parait-il nous menace, mais dont en plus l’homme serait responsable !
Pourtant, la consultation de chroniques ou récits anciens est révélatrice de précédents tout aussi apocalyptiques, et relativise la notion même de “changements climatiques”, ainsi que la définition d’un “climat stable” qui n’a jamais existé mais qu’on voudrait instaurer à tout prix.
Mystery solved : Rain means satellite and surface temps are different. Climate models didn’t predict this…
by JoNova, March 18, 2018
A funny thing happens when you line up satellite and surface temperatures over Australia. A lot of the time they are very close, but some years the surface records from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are cooler by a full half a degree than the UAH satellite readings. Before anyone yells “adjustments”, this appears to be a real difference of instruments, but solving this mystery turns up a rather major flaw in climate models (…)
46 New (2018) Non-Warming Graphs Affirm Nothing Climatically Unusual Is Happening
by K. Richard, March 22, 2018 in NoTricksZone
During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.
We are less than 3 months into the new publication year. Already 46 new graphs from 40+ scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming — or, in some regions, modern cooling — is climatically unusual.
Extreme winter weather, such as ‘Beast from the East’, can be linked to solar cycle
by University of Exeter, March 20, 2018 in PhysOrg
Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the ‘Beast from the East’, could be linked to the solar cycle, pioneering new research has shown.
A new study, led by Dr Indrani Roy from the University of Exeter, has revealed when the solar cycle is in its ‘weaker’ phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter, as well as heavy snowfall across the Eurasian sector.
Global Emissions Up 1.4% In 2017
by P. Homewood, March 23, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Global carbon dioxide emissions rose 1.4 percent in 2017 to a record-setting 32.5 gigatonnes, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Emissions rose after stalling for three years in a row, IEA reported. The Paris climate accord was signed by nearly 200 countries in 2015, which went into effect a year later. One year into the Paris accord, and emissions are on the rise.
IEA’s report echoes findings published by the Global Carbon Project late last year, predicting global emissions would rise 2 percent. The group projected emissions to rise again in 2018.
Arctic Wintertime Sea Ice Extent Is Among Lowest On Record (but not THE lowest)
by Anthony Watts, March 23, 2018 in WUWT
From NASA Goddard:
Sea ice in the Arctic grew to its annual maximum extent last week, and joined 2015, 2016 and 2017 as the four lowest maximum extents on record, according to scientists at the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.
On March 17, the Arctic sea ice cover peaked at 5.59 million square miles (14.48 million square kilometers), making it the second lowest maximum on record, at about 23,200 square miles (60,000 square kilometers) larger than the record low maximum reached on March 7, 2017 (…)
Further Confirmation Southern Ocean Sea Ice is Expanding
by De Santis et al., 2017 in Int.J.RemoteSensing/in CO2Science
Over the past several years, many researchers have examined the spatial extent of sea ice around Antarctica, consistently reporting an increasing trend (see, for example, our reviews on the previously published works of Yuan and Martinson, 2000, Watkins and Simmonds, 2000, Hanna, 2001, Zwally et al., 2002, Vyas et al., 2003, Cavalieri et al., 2003, Liu et al., 2004, Parkinson, 2004, Comiso and Nishio, 2008, Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2008, Turner et al., 2009, Pezza et al., 2012, Reid et al., 2013, Reid et al., 2015, Simmonds, 2015, He et al., 2016 and Comiso et al., 2017). The latest study to confirm this ongoing expanse comes from the South American research team of De Santis et al. (2017).
Where The Warmth Is
by Willis Eschenbach, March 24, 2018 in WUWT
I got to thinking about the “hiatus” in warming in the 21st Century, and I realized that the CERES satellite dataset covers the period since the year 2000. So I’ve graphed up a few views of the temperature changes over the period of the CERES record, which at present is May 2000 to February 2017. No great insights, just a good overview and some interesting findings.
How Not To Model The Historical Temperature
by Willis Eschenbach, March 24, 2018 in WUWT
Much has been made of the argument that natural forcings alone are not sufficient to explain the 20th Century temperature variations. Here’s the IPCC on the subject:
(…)
I’m sure you can see the problems with this. The computer model has been optimized to hindcast the past temperature changes using both natural and anthropogenic forcings … so of course, when you pull a random group of forcings out of the inputs, it will perform more poorly.
A Geological Perspective of the Greenland Ice Sheet
by D. Middleton, March 22, 2018 in WUWT
How Does the Recent Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet Compare to the Early Holocene?
Short answer: Same as it ever was. Vinther et al., 2009 reconstructed the elevations of four ice core sites over the Holocene. There has been very little change in elevation of the two interior ice core sites (NGRIP and GRIP), while the two outboard sites (Camp Century and DYE3) have lost 546 and 342 m of ice respectively.
BBC Forced To Retract False Claim About Hurricanes
by P. Homewood, March 22, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
You may recall the above report by the BBC, which described how bad last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was, before commenting at the end:
A warmer world is bringing us a greater number of hurricanes and a greater risk of a hurricane becoming the most powerful category 5.
As I promised, I fired off a complaint, which at first they did their best to dodge. After my refusal to accept their reply, they have now been forced to back down.
The above sentence now no longer appears, and instead they now say:
Scientists are still analysing what this data will mean, but a warmer world may bring us a greater number of more powerful category 4 and 5 hurricanes and could bring more extreme rainfall.
Correction 29 January 2018: This story has been updated to clarify that it is modelling rather than historical data that predicts stronger and wetter hurricanes.
(…)
NOAA — Straight Talk on Sea Level Rise
by Kip Hansen, March 20, 2018 in WUWT
What Exactly is Relative Sea Level (rise or fall)?
Tide stations measure Local (Relative) Sea Level, which refers to the height of the water as measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land
There are three possible combinations of relative sea level rise under current geological conditions (…)
NOAA Data Tampering Approaching 2.5 Degrees
by tonyheller, March 20, 2018 in TheDeplorableClimSciBlog
NOAA’s US temperature record shows that US was warmest in the 1930’s and has generally cooled as CO2 has increased. This wrecks greenhouse gas theory, so they “adjust” the data to make it look like the US is warming.
Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low
by F. Bosse and Prof. F. Vahrenholt, March 20, 2018 in NoTricksZone
The sunspot number for February 2018 was 10.6 and thus was some 30% below the meanfor this time into the cycle. At the moment solar activity is close to quiet.
Just 10 years ago, all the talk was about the Arctic sea ice “death spiral”, with some of scientists hysterically predicting the sea ice would soon disappear altogether in the summertime. Ten years later the scientists are now scratching their heads as sea ice has stabilized and is showing some clear signs of a rebound.
American Energy Is Being Piped And Shipped All Over The World — Here’s The Data
by M. Bastach, March 19, 2018 in TheDailyCaller
U.S. exported more natural gas in 2017 than it imported for the first time in 60 years, according to the Energy Department.
Natural gas production has boomed in recent years, particularly in Pennsylvania and other parts of Appalachia, thanks to hydraulic fracturing or fracking and horizontal drilling. The boom has offset Canadian imports and allowed U.S. companies to ship more fuel abroad.
Mars’ oceans formed early, possibly aided by massive volcanic eruptions
by University of California-Berkeley, March 19, 2018 in ScienceDaily
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A new theory about how oceans and volcanoes interacted during the early history of Mars supports the idea that liquid water was once abundant and may still exist underground. Geophysicists propose that the oceans originated several hundred million years earlier than thought, as the volcanic province Tharsis formed, and that greenhouse gases enabled the oceans. The theory predicts smaller oceans, more in line with estimates of water underground and at the poles today.
Since 2008, 0.24°C Of ‘Extra’ Warming Has Been Added To NASA’s 1910-2000 Global Temperatures
by K. Richard, March 19, 2018 in NoTricksZone
In the last 10 years, overseers of the NASA GISS global temperature data set have been busy utilizing cool-the-past-and-warm-the-present adjustment techniques to alter the slope of the overall warming trend.
For example, as the climate4you graph illustrates above, there was a +0.45°Cdifference between the 1910 temperature anomaly and the 2000 temperature anomaly as of May, 2008.
Today (March, 2018), NASA GISS has tendentiously adjusted up the difference between 1910 and 2000 to +0.69°C, a 53% increase.
