Archives mensuelles : mai 2025

energy and fields

Geothermal Gold Rush: U.S. Digs Deep To Power the Future

by N. Chatterjee, May 12, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

American energy sector is on the cusp of a tectonic transformation.

This week, members of the House Committee on Natural Resources heard testimony on the vast potential of geothermal energy as “a new era of American energy — built with American innovation, American technology and American workers,” as one witness put it. [emphasis, links added]

Chris Wright, President Donald Trump’s new energy secretary, has fervently endorsed geothermal as a way to “energize our country,” and a March study found that geothermal could meet roughly two-thirds of the voracious energy demands of AI datacenters by the early 2030s.

Even right here in New York City, new residential and office developments underway in Greenpoint, Coney Island, and Manhattan are being built to rely significantly on this power source.

Geothermal has the potential to be the Holy Grail of energy: unlimited and right under our feet.

But there’s a problem. Geothermal is expensive because it’s difficult to access … until now.

Today, American innovators are supercharging the geothermal energy revolution with directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the same technologies that delivered the miracle of American shale.

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

James Hansen: Climate Cassandra or Science Salesman?

by C. Rotter, May 15, 2025 in WUWT

One would think that James Hansen—once lionized as the father of modern climate alarmism—might bask in the limelight after a fresh round of histrionics about Earth hurtling toward a “point of no return.” Instead, we find him on the pages of his latest blog-style polemic, “Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity”, complaining that he’s being ostracized by the very media and institutions he helped train to bark on command every time the CO2 concentration ticks up another ppm.

“A strange phenomenon occurred… almost uniformly, these reports dismissed our conclusions as a fringe opinion… Are there important repercussions for the public… indeed, for the future of all people? The answer… is ‘yes.’”

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf

One might suggest that after decades of theatrics, people have simply stopped buying tickets to the same show.

But let’s not be hasty. His newest round of publications deserves scrutiny, not for its recycled gloom, but for the increasingly acrobatic logic and interpretive liberties embedded within.

The ‘Big FXcking Deal’ and the Cloud Feedback Feedback

At the heart of Hansen’s thesis is the observed decrease in Earth’s albedo—the fraction of sunlight reflected back into space. Hansen pegs this decline at 0.5% over the last two decades, translating to a 1.7 W/m² increase in absorbed solar radiation. This, he insists, proves that cloud feedback must be large and positive, confirming an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.5°C ± 0.5°C for doubled CO2.

“Earth’s albedo… has decreased about 0.5%… we described this change as a BFD… because it has staggering implications.”

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

The Media Hype Extreme Weather—But Data Tells A Different Tale

by K&K Media, May 14 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Hurricane Winds
These days, stories of extreme weather are everywhere you look. But a crucial detail often goes overlooked: We’re safer from the consequences of that weather than ever before. [emphasis, links added]

There was a time when extreme weather events that led to massive fatalities were depressingly common in the U.S.

In the last 85 years, however, there have only been three such events that took over 1,000 lives: Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Maria, and a 1980 heatwave.

…

There’s a reason for that.

The most important factor in determining a natural disaster’s destructiveness isn’t its intensity, but how well people in its path are protected. And on that front, things have improved … a lot.

Better building codes have prevented about $1.6 billion in damage a year since 2000. Advances in hurricane forecasts and early-warning systems have given people more time to prepare.

Having air conditioners in nearly 90% of American homes has severely cut the risk of extreme heat.

And while you often hear that the economic damages from extreme weather are growing, you don’t often hear why.

…

climate-debate

Antarctic Ice Is Increasing…Climate Models “No Longer Reflect Reality”

by Prof. F. Vahrenholt, May 13, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

If you look at the climate website of the Helmholtz Association with the ambitious name “Climate Facts” under Antarctica, you will read the following: “The important mainland ice of Antarctica is disappearing, and at an increasing rate”. According to the Helmholtz Association, this is of great significance for rising sea levels. And indeed, the rising sea level caused by the melting Antarctic ice is one of the central arguments of climate policy that has worried people.

This makes the result of a recently published study, according to which the picture has changed since 2021, all the more surprising: Antarctica’s continental ice is increasing again.

Chinese researchers from Tongji University led by Prof. Shen and Dr. Wang found that Antarctic ice masses have increased significantly since 2021. The data evaluated by NASA’s GRACE satellite showed an annual loss of 74 billion tons per year from 2002 to 2010. From 2011 to 2020, the amount even doubled. Now the ice has increased by around 108 billion tons year on year.

Source: Science China Press)

As the melting of the Antarctic glaciers contributed around 20% to sea level rise, a slowdown in the rise has been observed since 2021. Wouldn’t this good news be worth reporting on the news? Not so far.

…

better to know...?

La transition énergétique : un voeu pieux?/Energy transition : nothing else than wishful thinking?

by A. Préat, May 16, 2025 in Science, Climat, Energie 

Vaclav Smil is little known to the general public. Yet he is an internationally renowned expert on energy issues. The title of his latest book (2024) is unambiguous: 2050. Why a carbon-free world is almost impossible.

The stated aim, following the Paris Agreements (COP, 2015), is a totally carbon-free world by2050, given the potential danger posed to the planet by atmospheric CO2. As with my recent text on the Green Pact, the role of this gas is not discussed here and therefore is not thesubject of this article. Let’s look at the objective set by the EU, Net-Zero 2050 (carbon neutrality) and see whether it is achievable. The answer is clearly no for Vaclav Smil.

Let’see why…

…

climate-debate

Current Climate Conditions Aren’t Historically Extreme or Unusual, New Research Shows

by S. Burnett, May 09, 2025 in WUWT

Recently, a number of new studies and analyses have been published indicating what readers of CCW have long known: recent climate conditions are not historically unusual. An examination of long-term wildfire trends, plus research comparing past climate conditions to current conditions in central Africa and Germany, show current conditions are well below extremes experienced historically.

A relatively new Substack platform, “Grok Thinks,” publishes analyses of scientific and technological developments and research by the AI tool/assistant Grok3beta. A post in its first week of operation examined claims by geographer Elizabeth Hoy, Ph.D., a senior support scientist with NASA’s Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Office Goddard Space Flight Center. Grok’s analysis used hard data to show Hoy makes at least 10 false claims about wildfire history and trends on NASA’s “Wildfire and Climate Change” webpage.

Grok writes, in introducing the analysis,

On its “Wildfires and Climate Change” page, and in the accompanying video on YouTube, NASA—through Physical Geographer Elizabeth Hoy—paints a stark picture: climate change, fueled by human activity, is making wildfires longer, more frequent, and more destructive. It’s a compelling story, one that resonates with our instinct to connect dramatic events to a larger cause. But when you peel back the layers, something unsettling emerges: NASA’s claims don’t match the evidence.

This isn’t a minor quibble over data points. NASA’s narrative, endorsed by Hoy, is riddled with exaggerations, omissions, and outright fabrications. Over ten key claims, they twist regional trends into global crises, ignore contradictory evidence, and sidestep the messy reality of wildfire dynamics. Using global datasets, historical records, and peer-reviewed studies—including a groundbreaking paper I co-authored, A Critical Reassessment of the Anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming Hypothesis—this article dismantles their story piece by piece. The stakes are high—when a trusted institution misleads, it doesn’t just confuse us; it undermines our ability to tackle wildfires effectively.

The paper Grok refers to was published in Science of Climate Change and coauthored with an international group of scientists from the United States and Hungary. Among the lies that NASA tells about wildfires which Grok AI refutes, data ignored or suppressed by NASA, are that the world is experiencing longer wildfire seasons and is experiencing a surge of wildfire activity, both of which are resulting in growing wildfire-related carbon dioxide emissions.

Each of these three claims is refuted by hard data, some of which comes from NASA itself. Grok reports:

…

…

climate-debate

The Climate Scaremongers: More Lies From The UK’s Crackpot Climate Change Committee

by P. Homewood, May 09, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

The UK’s Climate Change Committee has warned the government that the country is heading for disaster unless it quickly ramps up efforts to tackle what it calls ‘climate risks’. [emphasis, links added]

In their latest Progress Report on Adaptation, they claim:

‘The increasing impacts of climate change are clear, both globally and in the UK. Adaptation is needed now to ensure that the UK is prepared for today’s extreme weather as well as the rapidly increasing severity of future risks. The costs of these impacts are already being felt, and the risks will continue to grow even if international targets to limit global warming are met. Action is needed now whilst we still have the opportunity to address these risks in a way that is both cost-effective and timely.’

They say that by 2050:

• Over half of England’s prime farmland, one in four homes, and half of roads and rail lines will be at risk of flooding;

• Heat-related deaths could pass 10,000 in an average year;

• Unchecked climate change could cost 7 percent of GDP.

Absurd claims such as these, which have no basis in reality, show that the CCC is a body that we should not take seriously.

Their statement about floods ignores the reality that only a few thousand properties a year are affected by flooding, and there has been no upward trend in the numbers, according to official data from the Environment Agency.

…

better to know...?, energy and fields

How Wind And Solar Sent Energy Prices Sky-High in ‘Green’ Countries

by B. Lomborg, May 8, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

Ask families in Germany and the UK what happens when more and more supposedly “cheap” solar and wind power is added to the national power mix, and they can tell you by looking at their utility bills: It gets far more expensive. [emphasis, links added]

The idea that power should get cheaper as we get more green energy is only true if we exclusively use electricity when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.

But modern societies need power around the clock. When there is no sun and wind, green energy needs plenty of backup, often powered by fossil fuels. What this means is that we pay for not one but two power systems.

And as the backup fossil fuel power sources are used less, they need to earn their capital costs back in fewer hours, leading to even more expensive power.

This means the real energy costs of solar and wind are far higher.

One study looking at China showed that the real cost of solar power on average turns out to be twice as high as coal, while a peer-reviewed study of Germany and Texas shows solar and wind are many times more expensive than fossil fuels.

Germany and the UK now have so much “low-cost” solar and wind that their electricity costs have become among the world’s most expensive.

The latest data from the International Energy Agency make it clear that there is a strong and clear correlation between more solar and wind and much higher average energy prices for households and industries.

In a country with little or no solar and wind, the average electricity cost is a bit over 11¢ per kilowatt-hour.

For every 10 percentage points of solar and wind, the cost increases by more than 4¢. The results are nearly similar for 2019, before any impacts of COVID and the Ukraine war.

Look at Germany, where 34¢ per kWh is more than twice the US cost and nearly four times the Chinese price.

Countries that use a higher percentage of solar and wind power tend to have higher energy prices per household. Mike Guillen/NY Post Design

Germany has installed so much solar and wind that, at full capacity, it could produce two times Germany’s electricity demand.

…

climate-debate

New Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Has Been Increasing Due To Recent Mass Gain

by K. Richard, May 05, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

The Surface Mass Balance (SMB) for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been remarkably stable since the 1970s.

However, according to the authors of a new study (a preprint soon to be published), “in recent years, the SMB has increased on the AIS, in particular for 2022, which mostly originates from mass gain on the EAIS.”

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

Phys.org Editorial Falsely Links Hurricanes To ‘Widespread’ School Closures

by A. Watts, May 06, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

school closed storm damage
In a recent editorial published by Phys.org, researchers claim that climate change is driving more powerful and frequent hurricanes, which in turn are causing widespread school closures, labeling it an “overlooked consequence” of our supposedly worsening climate. [emphasis, links added]

This narrative is false.

The available data shows no trend of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity due to human-induced climate change, and if the storms themselves aren’t worsening, the claim that they are causing more missed school days due to climate change collapses under its own weight.

The central claim that hurricanes are becoming more destructive and frequent due to climate change is contradicted by both long-term observational data and the official position of major scientific institutions.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), there is no strong evidence of an increase in either the number or intensity of hurricanes globally due to human-caused climate change.

…

climate-debate

Puncturing the Apocalypse: Curry and DeAngelo Expose the Myth of Climate Catastrophe

by H. DeAngelo and J. Curry, Feb 20, 2025 in WUWT

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5145310

Abstract

The Apocalyptic climate narrative is a seriously misleading propaganda tool and a socially destructive guide for public policy. The narrative radically overstates the risks to humanity of continued global warming, which are manageable, not existential. It prescribes large-scale near-term suppression of fossil-fuel use, while failing to recognize the huge costs that such suppression would inflict on humans because fossil fuels are currently irreplaceable inputs for producing food (via ammonia-based fertilizer), steel, cement, and plastics. This paper details the flaws in the Apocalyptic narrative and articulates nine principles for sensible U.S. policies on energy and global warming.

In an era where fear sells faster than facts, a refreshing gust of sanity has arrived in the form of a new paper by Dr. Judith Curry and economist Harry DeAngelo. Titled “A Critique of the Apocalyptic Climate Narrative,” the paper dismantles, brick by shaky brick, the popular belief that humanity teeters on the edge of climate-induced extinction and that salvation lies in the urgent abandonment of fossil fuels.

Curry and DeAngelo open with a sober reminder: “Alarming narratives that have an aura of plausibility can be highly effective tools for shaping public opinion and public policies.” That, in a nutshell, is the story of climate politics over the last 30 years. A narrative has been spun, polished, and weaponized—not to inform public understanding, but to shepherd it toward economically and politically ruinous policies.

The paper doesn’t just question the urgency of decarbonization—it eviscerates it.

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

Antarctica’s Astonishing Rebound: Ice Sheet Grows for the First Time in Decades

by SciTec, Apr 25 2025

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) plays a major role in global sea-level rise. Since March 2002, the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission and its successor, GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On), have provided valuable data to monitor changes in ice mass across the AIS.

Previous studies have consistently shown a long-term trend of mass loss, particularly in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, while glaciers in East Antarctica appeared relatively stable. However, a recent study led by Dr. Wang and Prof. Shen at Tongji University has found a surprising shift: between 2021 and 2023, the AIS experienced a record-breaking increase in overall mass.

Antarctic Ice Sheet’s Mass Drama,From Accelerated Loss to Surprising Gain
Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change series (April 2002–December 2023) derived from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry. Ellipses highlight period-specific mass change rates, while the grey shadow indicates the data gap between missions. Credit: Science China Press

Notably, four major glaciers in the Wilkes Land–Queen Mary Land region of East Antarctica reversed their previous pattern of accelerated mass loss from 2011 to 2020 and instead showed significant mass gain during the 2021 to 2023 period.

Record-breaking mass gain over the Antarctic Ice Sheet

From 2002 to 2010, the AIS has experienced a mass loss with a change rate of –73.79±56.27 Gt/yr, which nearly doubled to –142.06±56.12 Gt/yr for the period 2011–2020. This accelerated mass loss was primarily related to intensified mass depletion in West Antarctica and the WL-QML region of East Antarctica. However, a significant reversal occurred thereafter, driven by anomalous precipitation accumulation, the AIS gained mass at a rate of 107.79±74.90 Gt/yr between 2021 and 2023.

…

better to know...?

The Hidden Cost Of Net Zero

by P. Homewood, May 8, 2025 in WUWT

UK Electricity Consumption

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends

The REF’s new report on green energy subsidies noted that renewables subsidies are now costing £25.8 bn per year – or over £900 per household annually – about one third of which, £280, will hit the average domestic electricity bill directly.

For a long time, part of the gaslighting around the cost of Net Zero has been focus people’s attention over the impact on their energy bills.

However, as John Constable pointed out, only about a third of the cost hits the public directly via their electricity bills, because only a third of electricity is consumed by domestic users.

The other two thirds is used by industry and commerce, transport and the public sector.

But that does not mean that the public at large don’t end up footing the entire bill one way or another.

Higher electricity costs for industry and commerce mean higher prices in the shops. And higher electricity costs in the public sector mean higher taxes or poorer public services.

At the worst, businesses may shut or move their production abroad, leaving us all worse off.

Miliband and co would love you to think you are only paying a hundred quid or so for Net Zero. People would be horrified to learn that the price is nearer a thousand quid a year.

And that cost is of course just for starters. When we all have to buy expensive EVs and heat pumps we don’t want, we will be much worse off.

energy and fields

Have The Intermittent Energy Blackouts Begun?

by F. Menton, May 1, 2025 in WUWT

Today there have been widespread electricity blackouts across Europe, beginning in Spain and Portugal in the early afternoon (local time), and then spreading to other countries including France, Andorra, Belgium and the Netherlands. Is this related to the increasing penetration of intermittent generation from wind and solar facilities?

For years, many in the climate skeptic community have warned that expansion of intermittent renewable electricity generation on the grid will, sooner or later, lead to frequent blackouts. The reason for the warning is easy to understand: The grid has some rather exacting operational requirements that the intermittent renewable generation technologies cannot fulfill. Primary among these requirements are, first, minute-by-minute matching of electricity supply with electricity demand and, second, grid-wide synchronization of the frequency of the alternating current. When wind and solar provided relatively small portions of the electricity consumed, other generation sources, particularly thermal (fossil fuel) and hydro, would fulfill these requirements. But as wind and solar come to dominate generation, the problems become much more difficult to solve.

Here at Manhattan Contrarian, I have mostly steered clear of covering this topic. Although I think I understand the main issues, I am certainly not a grid engineer. And there are many smart people who are engineers and who have the job of “balancing” the grid to keep it consistently up and running in the face of the challenges of intermittent wind and solar generation. Maybe they can succeed. I doubt it. But I definitely have wanted to avoid “crying wolf,” predicting over and over that frequent blackouts are imminent, only to find that the engineers have come up with solutions that seem to work reasonably well.

…

climate-debate

Central Africa Was 2.5°C Warmer 7,000 Years Ago Despite Lower CO2, Study Find

by K. Richard, Apr 29, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

Cameroon is failing to cooperate with the warming narrative and contradicting model predictions.

 

dry lakebed savanna
Yet another region of the globe has failed to cooperate with the anthropogenic “global” warming narrative. [emphasis, links added]

According to climate models constructed on the presumption that CO2 concentration changes are the driver of climate, Central Africa should have been warming in recent centuries in tandem with the rise of atmospheric CO2.

However, scientists (Ménot et al., 2025) using brGDGT (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether) proxies to reconstruct paleotemperature trends have determined that the Cameroon region test site is likely colder today than at any other time in the last 7,000 years.

Mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) are 22°C at the study site today.

About 7,000 years ago, when CO2 concentrations were ~265 ppm, MAATs were 24.5 to 25.5°C, or at least 2.5°C warmer than today.

As CO2 levels rose throughout the mid- to late-Holocene, temperatures continued to decline. This negatively correlated trend is the opposite of model predictions.

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

Former British PM Tony Blair Slams Net Zero as “Irrational”

by E. Worrall, Apr 30, 2025 in WUWT

…

The original piece by Tony Blair;

The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change

PAPER 29TH APRIL 2025
LINDY FURSMAN

Foreword [By Tony Blair]

People know that the current state of debate over climate change is riven with irrationality. As a result, though most people will accept that climate change is a reality caused by human activity, they’re turning away from the politics of the issue because they believe the proposed solutions are not founded on good policy.

So, in developed countries, voters feel they’re being asked to make financial sacrifices and changes in lifestyle when they know that their impact on global emissions is minimal. Whatever the historical responsibility of the developed world for climate change, those with even a cursory knowledge of the facts understand that in the future the major sources of pollution will come principally from the developing world.

But for that developing world, there is an equal resentment when they’re told the investment is not available for the energy necessary for their development because it is not “green”. They believe, correctly, that they have a right to develop and that those who have already developed using fossil fuels do not have the right to inhibit them from whatever is the most effective way of developing.

Therefore, there has been a period where climate-change action and global agreements, notably the Paris Agreement in 2015, seemed to herald a new era; but that momentum has been followed – exacerbated by external shocks like Covid and the Ukraine war – by a backlash against such action, which threatens to derail the whole agenda.

…

Tony Blair

…

Read more: https://institute.global/insights/climate-and-energy/the-climate-paradox-why-we-need-to-reset-action-on-climate-change

energy and fields

China Breaks Pledge To Stop Building Coal Power Plants Abroad

by I. Slav, Apr 30, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

China is still building new coal-powered generation capacity abroad despite a pledge made in 2021 to stop it and focus on transition technology.

According to a new report by climate think tank Global Energy Monitor, China is involved in 88% of new coal power capacity projects in the new BRICS members. [emphasis, links added]

“Chinese firms are backing 7.7 GW of new coal, virtually all found in Indonesia, despite President Xi’s pledge to end support for overseas coal projects,” Global Energy Monitor said.

Yet China is also backing a lot of transition capacity, accounting for about half of the solar power capacity under construction, or 947 MW, as well as close to 90% of wind power capacity, or 601 MW.

The new BRICS members are Indonesia, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Nigeria.

New power generation projects across the new BRICS members are mostly hydrocarbon forms of capacity, the climate think tank also reported, noting that the total oil, gas, and coal capacity under construction across the 10 new members amounts to 25 GW.

Wind and solar capacity under construction, on the other hand, stands at a measly 2.3 GW.

Close to two-thirds of all the new capacity under construction in the new BRICS members, hydrocarbon and alternative, features Chinese state-owned companies, Global Energy Monitor also reported.

“There’s a real risk of sending these countries down the wrong path by investing in coal, gas, and oil,” Global Energy Monitor’s project manager for the think tank’s Global Integrated Power Tracker told Reuter

climate-debate

No, Euronews, Europe is Not Suffering ‘Serious Impacts’ from Climate Change

by L. Lueken, pr 29, 2025 in WUWT

A recent post by Euronews, titled “Deadly floods, storms and heatwaves: Europe suffered the ‘serious impacts’ of climate change in 2024,” claims that Europe is experiencing very severe impacts from climate change, citing heatwaves, wildfires, and flooding, among other conditions. This is false. Europe experienced many different kinds of severe weather across the continent in 2024, but this is not unusual.

Although part of the story is hidden behind a paywall, the Euronews post details several examples of supposed climate-change fueled extreme weather events from last year. The main ones mentioned were the wildfires in Portugal, flooding in Valencia, Spain, and heatwaves in parts of the continent.

“Storms were often severe, flooding was widespread, and parts of the continent were gripped by record-breaking heatwaves,” Euronews claims.

Addressing the claims about wildfires first; Euronews said that “Wildfires in Portugal in September burned 110,000 hectares of land in a week – a quarter of Europe’s total annual burnt area for 2024.”

Luckily, Europe’s Copernicus service, the very group that published the State of the Climate report that Euronews based their coverage on, publishes an annual wildfire report, breaking it down by country. Portugal, according to their data, is not suffering from any long term trend in increasing wildfire size or quantity. (See figures below)

…