Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

climate-debate

Predictive? Study Finds IPCC Climate Models Overstate Warming Up To 4.5°F

by K. Richard, May 28, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

A new evidence-based study provides compelling evidence that for decades, the IPCC has been engaged in “advocacy research,” or the “antiscientific practice of undertaking research designed to support a given hypothesis.” [emphasis, links added]

The IPCC favored climate model parameters used to support the narrative that climate change is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels (referred to as the Anthro models in the study).

[It is] so fraught with errors that even a stripped-down benchmark model that merely projects future temperatures will not deviate from the historical average, overwhelmingly outperforming the IPCC’s modeling.

“The IPCC’s models of anthropogenic climate change lack predictive validity. The IPCC models’ forecast errors were greater for most estimation samples – often many times greater – than those from a benchmark model that simply predicts that future years’ temperatures will be the same as the historical median.”

The IPCC’s Anthro models, which hypothesize that (primarily) CO2 will foment dangerous global warming over the coming decades, woefully overestimated the warming from 1970-2019 by anywhere from 1.8°C [3.2°F] to 2.5°C [4.5°F].

“The errors of forecasts from the anthropogenic models for the era of concern over man-made global warming, starting in 1970, were 1.8°C (AVL), 1.7°C (AVSL), 2.3°C (AVR), and 2.5°C (AVSR) warmer than the measured temperatures.”

Over the 2000 to 2019 period, the Anthro models’ forecast errors were a staggering 16 times greater than the simple benchmark model’s errors.

“…forecasts for the years 2000 to 2019 from models estimated with 50 observations of historical data (1850 to 1899) have MdAEs [median absolute errors] of around 17°C or 1,600 percent greater than the 1°C MdAE of forecasts from the naïve benchmark model.”

In contrast, the authors found the models that centered on Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) as a climate change factor did indeed have predictive validity, and their error ranges were much smaller.

Considering the magnitude of the error in using CO2 emissions as a basis for climate forecasts, the authors conclude the Anthro models’ unreliability “would appear to void policy relevance.”

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climate-debate

Big Chart Alert: Share of Global Carbon Emissions by Country in 2022

by Voronoi, May 21, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • China accounts for 26% of all global emissions, while the U.S. is responsible for another 11.5%.
  • This was equivalent to 12.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide for China and 5.6 billion tCO2e for the U.S. in 2022.
  • Most of the top 10 emitters are also the world’s most populous countries, barring Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Canada.

Developing Countries Are Driving Emissions Growth

There’s a pattern as to why middle-income countries are seeing emissions growth.

  1. They are prioritizing economic development and have larger populations, driving an overall increase in energy consumption.
  2. Most emissions-heavy industries have moved from high-income countries to middle- and low-income ones.
  3. Thus, high-income countries are able to sustain their consumption levels while the emissions from producing the goods they consume are accounted for elsewhere.

Dataset

Rank Country ISO Code Share of Total Emissions Carbon Emissions (in million tCO2e, 2022)
1 China CHN 26.16% 12,716
2 U.S. USA 11.53% 5,604
3 India IND 7.69% 3,737
4 Russia RUS 3.75% 1,821
5 Brazil BRA 3.16% 1,538
6 Indonesia IDN 3.15% 1,530
7 Japan JPN 2.15% 1,044
8 Iran IRN 2.06% 1,004
9 Saudi Arabia SAU 1.60% 775
10 Canada CAN 1.54% 750

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climate-debate

BBC Warming Arctic Claims Are Fake News

by P. Homewood, May 24, 2025 in WUWT

The BBC are at it again!

Their latest report about Norway, “Tensions rise as superpowers scrap for a piece of the Arctic”, claims:

Climate scientists say the Arctic is warming four times faster than anywhere else. This impacts ecosystems, wildlife and local populations

In reality temperatures in the Arctic have been stable for the last two decade. The Arctic is not “warming” at all.

Looking further back, temperatures were at similar levels to now in the 1930s and 40s. In between that era and now, there was a plunge in temperatures, followed by a recovery:

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climate-debate

CNN Lies in its AMOC Collapse Story: Another Flip-Flop in a Long Line of Alarmist Claims

by A. Watts, May 23, 2025 in ClimateRealism

A recent CNN article by Laura Paddison, titled “A crucial system of ocean currents is slowing. It’s already supercharging sea level rise in the US,” references new research on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to claim the current is slowing down leading to rising seas and costly, deadly coastal flooding. This false claim is based solely on a single, as yet unpublished and unverified, study which used a single climate model’s projections. Evidence, such as other studies and historical reporting on AMOC trends demonstrate that there is no consensus on the status of the AMOC. Rather, scientists’ predictions and the media’s reporting on the AMOC have been flip-flopping for nearly two decades—unable to decide whether AMOC is speeding up, slowing down, or staying steady.

Figure1. A simplified illustration of the global “conveyor belt” of ocean currents that transport heat around Earth. Red shows surface currents, and blue shows deep currents. Deep water forms where the sea surface is the densest. The background color shows sea-surface density. The AMOC is the currents in the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of the US. Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.
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better to know...?, climate-debate

Nigeria’s Water Crisis: Why Poor Management, Not Climate Change, Is Drying Up Farms

by L. Lueken, May 21, 2025 in WUWT

AfricaNews (AN), in collaboration with the Associated Press, recently posted an article claiming that recent drought in Nigeria is due to climate change. This is unlikely to be the full story. Although data is sparse for the region, human activities are just as likely to be contributing to desertification as cycles of drought are.

The article, “Nigerian farmers struggle as climate change dries up water sources,” claims that climate change is the cause of recent drought in Nigeria, leading to crop declines. Surface water is becoming scarce during the dry seasons, so some farmers are forced to dig wells to irrigate their crops. AN writes that “[r]iverbeds have started to run dry,” and so the blame “is pointed firmly at climate change, with conservationists warning that food could become scarce if measures are not urgently put in place to help the farmers irrigate their land.”

While it is true that Nigeria has been suffering from extended drought, particularly in the northern part of the country, it is not clear that this is all or even mostly because of any human-caused climate change due to changing temperatures. Natural drought, combined with human error in land and water management, seems to be the more likely culprit.

According to the article, over 80 percent of Nigeria’s farmers are smallholder farmers, and they make up 90 percent of the nation’s crop production. The article points at maize (corn) as a sample crop that is suffering due to the water shortage, it “saw a decline in cultivated land from 6.2 million hectares in 2021 to 5.8 million hectares in 2022.”

Crop production data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that Nigeria’s corn production has been increasing over time. It actually shot upwards the most in recent decades, after remaining relatively flat through the 1980s. Between just 1990 and 2023, Nigerian corn production increased 91 percent, while yields increased 71 percent. (See figure below)

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Live at 1 p.m. Eastern: SHOCK CLIMATE REPORT! Urban Heat Islands Responsible for 65% of Global Warming

by C. Rotter, May 16, 2025 in WUWT

The Heartland Institute

A new study from the University of Alabama in Huntsville addresses the question of how much the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is responsible for the higher temperatures at weather stations across the world. Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy have spent several years developing a novel method that quantifies, for the first time, the average UHI warming effects related to population density. Their finding: no less than 65% of “runaway global warming” is not caused by our emissions of carbon dioxide, but by the urbanization of the world.

Dr. Spencer will join us to go over his findings. We’ll also cover the Crazy Climate News of the Week, including an absurd new bit of unscientific propaganda from the U.S. Climate Reference Network at NOAA, wonder if the sun is setting on wide-scale solar energy, and discuss how alarmists refuse to see that we live in a climactic “golden age”—and more.

Join Heartland’s Anthony Watts, Linnea Lueken, H. Sterling Burnett, Jim Lakely, and Dr. Roy Spencer LIVE at 1 p.m. ET for Episode #157 of The Climate Realism Show. We’ll be answering questions in the chat for us, and for Dr. Spencer, on the show.

better to know...?, climate-debate

James Hansen: Climate Cassandra or Science Salesman?

by C. Rotter, May 15, 2025 in WUWT

One would think that James Hansen—once lionized as the father of modern climate alarmism—might bask in the limelight after a fresh round of histrionics about Earth hurtling toward a “point of no return.” Instead, we find him on the pages of his latest blog-style polemic, “Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity”, complaining that he’s being ostracized by the very media and institutions he helped train to bark on command every time the CO2 concentration ticks up another ppm.

“A strange phenomenon occurred… almost uniformly, these reports dismissed our conclusions as a fringe opinion… Are there important repercussions for the public… indeed, for the future of all people? The answer… is ‘yes.’”

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf

One might suggest that after decades of theatrics, people have simply stopped buying tickets to the same show.

But let’s not be hasty. His newest round of publications deserves scrutiny, not for its recycled gloom, but for the increasingly acrobatic logic and interpretive liberties embedded within.

The ‘Big FXcking Deal’ and the Cloud Feedback Feedback

At the heart of Hansen’s thesis is the observed decrease in Earth’s albedo—the fraction of sunlight reflected back into space. Hansen pegs this decline at 0.5% over the last two decades, translating to a 1.7 W/m² increase in absorbed solar radiation. This, he insists, proves that cloud feedback must be large and positive, confirming an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.5°C ± 0.5°C for doubled CO2.

“Earth’s albedo… has decreased about 0.5%… we described this change as a BFD… because it has staggering implications.”

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf

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better to know...?, climate-debate

The Media Hype Extreme Weather—But Data Tells A Different Tale

by K&K Media, May 14 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Hurricane Winds
These days, stories of extreme weather are everywhere you look. But a crucial detail often goes overlooked: We’re safer from the consequences of that weather than ever before. [emphasis, links added]

There was a time when extreme weather events that led to massive fatalities were depressingly common in the U.S.

In the last 85 years, however, there have only been three such events that took over 1,000 lives: Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Maria, and a 1980 heatwave.

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There’s a reason for that.

The most important factor in determining a natural disaster’s destructiveness isn’t its intensity, but how well people in its path are protected. And on that front, things have improved … a lot.

Better building codes have prevented about $1.6 billion in damage a year since 2000. Advances in hurricane forecasts and early-warning systems have given people more time to prepare.

Having air conditioners in nearly 90% of American homes has severely cut the risk of extreme heat.

And while you often hear that the economic damages from extreme weather are growing, you don’t often hear why.

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climate-debate

Antarctic Ice Is Increasing…Climate Models “No Longer Reflect Reality”

by Prof. F. Vahrenholt, May 13, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

If you look at the climate website of the Helmholtz Association with the ambitious name “Climate Facts” under Antarctica, you will read the following: “The important mainland ice of Antarctica is disappearing, and at an increasing rate”. According to the Helmholtz Association, this is of great significance for rising sea levels. And indeed, the rising sea level caused by the melting Antarctic ice is one of the central arguments of climate policy that has worried people.

This makes the result of a recently published study, according to which the picture has changed since 2021, all the more surprising: Antarctica’s continental ice is increasing again.

Chinese researchers from Tongji University led by Prof. Shen and Dr. Wang found that Antarctic ice masses have increased significantly since 2021. The data evaluated by NASA’s GRACE satellite showed an annual loss of 74 billion tons per year from 2002 to 2010. From 2011 to 2020, the amount even doubled. Now the ice has increased by around 108 billion tons year on year.

Source: Science China Press)

As the melting of the Antarctic glaciers contributed around 20% to sea level rise, a slowdown in the rise has been observed since 2021. Wouldn’t this good news be worth reporting on the news? Not so far.

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climate-debate

Current Climate Conditions Aren’t Historically Extreme or Unusual, New Research Shows

by S. Burnett, May 09, 2025 in WUWT

Recently, a number of new studies and analyses have been published indicating what readers of CCW have long known: recent climate conditions are not historically unusual. An examination of long-term wildfire trends, plus research comparing past climate conditions to current conditions in central Africa and Germany, show current conditions are well below extremes experienced historically.

A relatively new Substack platform, “Grok Thinks,” publishes analyses of scientific and technological developments and research by the AI tool/assistant Grok3beta. A post in its first week of operation examined claims by geographer Elizabeth Hoy, Ph.D., a senior support scientist with NASA’s Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Office Goddard Space Flight Center. Grok’s analysis used hard data to show Hoy makes at least 10 false claims about wildfire history and trends on NASA’s “Wildfire and Climate Change” webpage.

Grok writes, in introducing the analysis,

On its “Wildfires and Climate Change” page, and in the accompanying video on YouTube, NASA—through Physical Geographer Elizabeth Hoy—paints a stark picture: climate change, fueled by human activity, is making wildfires longer, more frequent, and more destructive. It’s a compelling story, one that resonates with our instinct to connect dramatic events to a larger cause. But when you peel back the layers, something unsettling emerges: NASA’s claims don’t match the evidence.

This isn’t a minor quibble over data points. NASA’s narrative, endorsed by Hoy, is riddled with exaggerations, omissions, and outright fabrications. Over ten key claims, they twist regional trends into global crises, ignore contradictory evidence, and sidestep the messy reality of wildfire dynamics. Using global datasets, historical records, and peer-reviewed studies—including a groundbreaking paper I co-authored, A Critical Reassessment of the Anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming Hypothesis—this article dismantles their story piece by piece. The stakes are high—when a trusted institution misleads, it doesn’t just confuse us; it undermines our ability to tackle wildfires effectively.

The paper Grok refers to was published in Science of Climate Change and coauthored with an international group of scientists from the United States and Hungary. Among the lies that NASA tells about wildfires which Grok AI refutes, data ignored or suppressed by NASA, are that the world is experiencing longer wildfire seasons and is experiencing a surge of wildfire activity, both of which are resulting in growing wildfire-related carbon dioxide emissions.

Each of these three claims is refuted by hard data, some of which comes from NASA itself. Grok reports:

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climate-debate

The Climate Scaremongers: More Lies From The UK’s Crackpot Climate Change Committee

by P. Homewood, May 09, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

The UK’s Climate Change Committee has warned the government that the country is heading for disaster unless it quickly ramps up efforts to tackle what it calls ‘climate risks’. [emphasis, links added]

In their latest Progress Report on Adaptation, they claim:

‘The increasing impacts of climate change are clear, both globally and in the UK. Adaptation is needed now to ensure that the UK is prepared for today’s extreme weather as well as the rapidly increasing severity of future risks. The costs of these impacts are already being felt, and the risks will continue to grow even if international targets to limit global warming are met. Action is needed now whilst we still have the opportunity to address these risks in a way that is both cost-effective and timely.’

They say that by 2050:

• Over half of England’s prime farmland, one in four homes, and half of roads and rail lines will be at risk of flooding;

• Heat-related deaths could pass 10,000 in an average year;

• Unchecked climate change could cost 7 percent of GDP.

Absurd claims such as these, which have no basis in reality, show that the CCC is a body that we should not take seriously.

Their statement about floods ignores the reality that only a few thousand properties a year are affected by flooding, and there has been no upward trend in the numbers, according to official data from the Environment Agency.

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climate-debate

New Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Has Been Increasing Due To Recent Mass Gain

by K. Richard, May 05, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

The Surface Mass Balance (SMB) for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been remarkably stable since the 1970s.

However, according to the authors of a new study (a preprint soon to be published), “in recent years, the SMB has increased on the AIS, in particular for 2022, which mostly originates from mass gain on the EAIS.”

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Phys.org Editorial Falsely Links Hurricanes To ‘Widespread’ School Closures

by A. Watts, May 06, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

school closed storm damage
In a recent editorial published by Phys.org, researchers claim that climate change is driving more powerful and frequent hurricanes, which in turn are causing widespread school closures, labeling it an “overlooked consequence” of our supposedly worsening climate. [emphasis, links added]

This narrative is false.

The available data shows no trend of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity due to human-induced climate change, and if the storms themselves aren’t worsening, the claim that they are causing more missed school days due to climate change collapses under its own weight.

The central claim that hurricanes are becoming more destructive and frequent due to climate change is contradicted by both long-term observational data and the official position of major scientific institutions.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), there is no strong evidence of an increase in either the number or intensity of hurricanes globally due to human-caused climate change.

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climate-debate

Puncturing the Apocalypse: Curry and DeAngelo Expose the Myth of Climate Catastrophe

by H. DeAngelo and J. Curry, Feb 20, 2025 in WUWT

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5145310

Abstract

The Apocalyptic climate narrative is a seriously misleading propaganda tool and a socially destructive guide for public policy. The narrative radically overstates the risks to humanity of continued global warming, which are manageable, not existential. It prescribes large-scale near-term suppression of fossil-fuel use, while failing to recognize the huge costs that such suppression would inflict on humans because fossil fuels are currently irreplaceable inputs for producing food (via ammonia-based fertilizer), steel, cement, and plastics. This paper details the flaws in the Apocalyptic narrative and articulates nine principles for sensible U.S. policies on energy and global warming.

In an era where fear sells faster than facts, a refreshing gust of sanity has arrived in the form of a new paper by Dr. Judith Curry and economist Harry DeAngelo. Titled “A Critique of the Apocalyptic Climate Narrative,” the paper dismantles, brick by shaky brick, the popular belief that humanity teeters on the edge of climate-induced extinction and that salvation lies in the urgent abandonment of fossil fuels.

Curry and DeAngelo open with a sober reminder: “Alarming narratives that have an aura of plausibility can be highly effective tools for shaping public opinion and public policies.” That, in a nutshell, is the story of climate politics over the last 30 years. A narrative has been spun, polished, and weaponized—not to inform public understanding, but to shepherd it toward economically and politically ruinous policies.

The paper doesn’t just question the urgency of decarbonization—it eviscerates it.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Antarctica’s Astonishing Rebound: Ice Sheet Grows for the First Time in Decades

by SciTec, Apr 25 2025

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) plays a major role in global sea-level rise. Since March 2002, the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission and its successor, GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On), have provided valuable data to monitor changes in ice mass across the AIS.

Previous studies have consistently shown a long-term trend of mass loss, particularly in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, while glaciers in East Antarctica appeared relatively stable. However, a recent study led by Dr. Wang and Prof. Shen at Tongji University has found a surprising shift: between 2021 and 2023, the AIS experienced a record-breaking increase in overall mass.

Antarctic Ice Sheet’s Mass Drama,From Accelerated Loss to Surprising Gain
Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change series (April 2002–December 2023) derived from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry. Ellipses highlight period-specific mass change rates, while the grey shadow indicates the data gap between missions. Credit: Science China Press

Notably, four major glaciers in the Wilkes Land–Queen Mary Land region of East Antarctica reversed their previous pattern of accelerated mass loss from 2011 to 2020 and instead showed significant mass gain during the 2021 to 2023 period.

Record-breaking mass gain over the Antarctic Ice Sheet

From 2002 to 2010, the AIS has experienced a mass loss with a change rate of –73.79±56.27 Gt/yr, which nearly doubled to –142.06±56.12 Gt/yr for the period 2011–2020. This accelerated mass loss was primarily related to intensified mass depletion in West Antarctica and the WL-QML region of East Antarctica. However, a significant reversal occurred thereafter, driven by anomalous precipitation accumulation, the AIS gained mass at a rate of 107.79±74.90 Gt/yr between 2021 and 2023.

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climate-debate

Central Africa Was 2.5°C Warmer 7,000 Years Ago Despite Lower CO2, Study Find

by K. Richard, Apr 29, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch 

Cameroon is failing to cooperate with the warming narrative and contradicting model predictions.

 

dry lakebed savanna
Yet another region of the globe has failed to cooperate with the anthropogenic “global” warming narrative. [emphasis, links added]

According to climate models constructed on the presumption that CO2 concentration changes are the driver of climate, Central Africa should have been warming in recent centuries in tandem with the rise of atmospheric CO2.

However, scientists (Ménot et al., 2025) using brGDGT (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether) proxies to reconstruct paleotemperature trends have determined that the Cameroon region test site is likely colder today than at any other time in the last 7,000 years.

Mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) are 22°C at the study site today.

About 7,000 years ago, when CO2 concentrations were ~265 ppm, MAATs were 24.5 to 25.5°C, or at least 2.5°C warmer than today.

As CO2 levels rose throughout the mid- to late-Holocene, temperatures continued to decline. This negatively correlated trend is the opposite of model predictions.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Former British PM Tony Blair Slams Net Zero as “Irrational”

by E. Worrall, Apr 30, 2025 in WUWT

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The original piece by Tony Blair;

The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change

PAPER 29TH APRIL 2025
LINDY FURSMAN

Foreword [By Tony Blair]

People know that the current state of debate over climate change is riven with irrationality. As a result, though most people will accept that climate change is a reality caused by human activity, they’re turning away from the politics of the issue because they believe the proposed solutions are not founded on good policy.

So, in developed countries, voters feel they’re being asked to make financial sacrifices and changes in lifestyle when they know that their impact on global emissions is minimal. Whatever the historical responsibility of the developed world for climate change, those with even a cursory knowledge of the facts understand that in the future the major sources of pollution will come principally from the developing world.

But for that developing world, there is an equal resentment when they’re told the investment is not available for the energy necessary for their development because it is not “green”. They believe, correctly, that they have a right to develop and that those who have already developed using fossil fuels do not have the right to inhibit them from whatever is the most effective way of developing.

Therefore, there has been a period where climate-change action and global agreements, notably the Paris Agreement in 2015, seemed to herald a new era; but that momentum has been followed – exacerbated by external shocks like Covid and the Ukraine war – by a backlash against such action, which threatens to derail the whole agenda.

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Tony Blair

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Read more: https://institute.global/insights/climate-and-energy/the-climate-paradox-why-we-need-to-reset-action-on-climate-change

climate-debate

No, Euronews, Europe is Not Suffering ‘Serious Impacts’ from Climate Change

by L. Lueken, pr 29, 2025 in WUWT

A recent post by Euronews, titled “Deadly floods, storms and heatwaves: Europe suffered the ‘serious impacts’ of climate change in 2024,” claims that Europe is experiencing very severe impacts from climate change, citing heatwaves, wildfires, and flooding, among other conditions. This is false. Europe experienced many different kinds of severe weather across the continent in 2024, but this is not unusual.

Although part of the story is hidden behind a paywall, the Euronews post details several examples of supposed climate-change fueled extreme weather events from last year. The main ones mentioned were the wildfires in Portugal, flooding in Valencia, Spain, and heatwaves in parts of the continent.

“Storms were often severe, flooding was widespread, and parts of the continent were gripped by record-breaking heatwaves,” Euronews claims.

Addressing the claims about wildfires first; Euronews said that “Wildfires in Portugal in September burned 110,000 hectares of land in a week – a quarter of Europe’s total annual burnt area for 2024.”

Luckily, Europe’s Copernicus service, the very group that published the State of the Climate report that Euronews based their coverage on, publishes an annual wildfire report, breaking it down by country. Portugal, according to their data, is not suffering from any long term trend in increasing wildfire size or quantity. (See figures below)

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climate-debate

New Study: Corals Thrived When Global Sea Levels Were Meters Higher Than Today 6000 Years Ago

by K. Richard, Apr 3, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

Coral reefs expand and thrive as sea levels rise, whereas they undergo millennia of growth hiatuses and “turn-off” or “mass mortality” phases when sea levels fall.

According to a new global sea level reconstruction (Feldman et al., 2025), global sea levels were meters higher than today 7000 to 5000 years ago. Global sea levels fell thereafter throughout the late Holocene.

From approximately 4500 years ago until 640 years ago, previously thriving coral reefs endured “mass mortality” and “turn-off” phases due to incrementally declining accommodation space in the Red Sea region.

This millennial-scale “turn-off” reef growth period was not just limited to this study area, but coral cover decline has been a global phenomenon associated with global sea level fall throughout the late Holocene.

“A global hiatus in coral reef development […] was largely driven by eustatic sea level drop during the late Holocene and caused a lack of vertical accommodation space…”

“In this study, we propose not just a local sea level condition causing specific reef turn-offs or hiatuses, but rather a global phenomenon of sea level fall.”

“A reduction in accommodation space through receding sea levels resulted in mass mortality or sea level constrained corals.”

Considering rising sea levels are advantageous to corals and falling sea levels largely eliminate the potential for growth, future sea level rise may lead to a “significant increase in coral cover”.

“Future sea level rise could provide additional accommodation space for currently sea level-constrained reef systems, potentially leading to a significant increase in coral cover.”

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climate-debate

The Medieval Warm Period In Germany: Inconvenient And very Real

by P. Gosselin, Apr 25, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

Grok AI generated image.

Hans-Joachim Dammschneider has written a book about the climate history of the southern Harz region. In the historical weather data, he discovered climatic fluctuations that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), should not exist.

Long before industrial CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere, there were already alternating warm and cold phases.

Here is the book description:

The so-called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) has been the subject of scientific debate for years. It is not so much a question of whether this warm period actually took place in Europe, but rather how it took place. Was it a local phenomenon that was limited in time and predominantly restricted to Europe, or was it a period of intense climatic change that also had a global impact?

One thing is certain: from around 950 AD, there was a rise in temperature in Germany lasting at least 300 years, which resulted in a marked warm phase favorable to agriculture and life. However, from the beginning of the 14th century at the latest, this period was replaced by a relatively rapid drop in temperature and climatic turbulence in the direction of the so-called Little Ice Age.

In the early reports, the IPCC (1990, AR1) still devoted relatively much attention to the MWP. Over the years, however, this focus diminished, and in the most recent assessment (2021, AR6) little space was given to the Medieval Warm Period. Studies often even question whether it was a global phenomenon. However, a mapping of the available scientific publications (as of 2022) initiated by S. Lüning shows that the Warm Period certainly left evidence across continents.

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Australia, better to know...?, climate-debate

State Of The Great Barrier Reef 2024

by P. Homewood, Mar 14, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat 

The Australian Environment foundation (AEF), which is a farmer friendly conservation group, has issued a new report entitled “State of the Great Barrier Reef 2024.”

Peter Ridd, the Chairman of the AEF, said the report shows that the reef is in excellent condition with record amounts of coral. “Despite all the catastrophism about hot water bleaching events in the last decade, the species most susceptible to bleaching, (the plate and staghorn corals), have exploded in number. Sadly, the impact of bleaching is routinely exaggerated by the media and some science organisations.”

“The impact of farm pollution in the Reef is negligible and all 3000 individual reefs have excellent coral. No other Australian ecosystem has shown such little change in modern times” Ridd said.

Peter Ridd added, “Australia spends roughly $500 million each year to “save the reef” but this money could be much better spent on genuine environmental problems such as control of invasive weeds and feral animals, or restoring indigenous fire practices into forests and rangeland”.

He concluded, “The public is being deceived about the reef. How this occurred is a serious issue for the reef-science community which has embraced emotion, ideology, and raw self-interest to maintain funding”.

“This new report distils a great deal of data about the reef” said Ridd “it is time that the reef

science institutions confront this data rather than ignoring it and hoping nobody will notice. I challenge them to a public science duel – any time any place.”

The Great Barrier Reef is the largest reef system in the world, and scientists have been warning of its imminent demise since the 1960s.

The report is here.

climate-debate

Why are Patagonian glaciers rapidly losing mass?

by University of Liège , Apr 23, 2025 in ScienceDaily

Over the past two decades, satellite-based planetary observations have recorded rapid mass loss of Patagonian glaciers, contributing approximately 0.07 mm per year to global sea-level rise. A study published in Nature Communications links this mass loss to a poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems. This large-scale atmospheric circulation change brings more warm air to Patagonia, thereby accelerating glacier melt.

Located in the southern Andes between Chile and Argentina, Patagonia hosts the largest and wettest glaciated region in the Southern Hemisphere outside Antarctica. “The Southern Andes act as a natural barrier, blocking moisture-laden westerly winds from the Pacific Ocean,” explains Brice Noël, climatologist at the University of Liège. “As a result, glaciers locally receive over fifteen metres of snowfall annually, particularly on the western flank of the Andes.”

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better to know...?, climate-debate

German Droughts Were Much More Common Back In The Old Days, Before 1980!

by P. Gosselin, Apr 23, 2025 in NoTricksZone 

Central Europe has been experiencing a bout of dry weather since February. Germany’s DWD national weather service reported in a recent press release that just 19 liters per square meter (l/m²) fell in March compared to the approx. 60 liters that normally fall in the month. This made last March one of the driest since measurements began in 1881.

“The pronounced drought, which had already lasted in some regions since the beginning or middle of February, was caused by high-pressure areas that repeatedly settled over Central Europe or in the surrounding area,” reports the DWD.

Not surprisingly, the media are making alarmist claims of unprecedented drought, and all hinting it’s due to climate sins by mankind.

Driest years overwhelmingly before 1980

So is drought in rainy Germany something new that we have only begun to experience, like the media and pols suggest?

The historical data show that the answer is clearly NO.

Four of the 5 driest years on record in Germany occurred before 1960. Eight of the top 9 occurred before man-made climate change was ever an issue (before 1980).

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climate-debate

Climate Change Myths Part 2: Wildfires, Drought, Rising Sea Level, and Coral Reefs

by J. Stossel, Ar 23, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

stossel climate myths part2
More climate change myths need debunking.

There’s so much the alarmists get wrong!

Linnea Lueken of the Heartland Institute helps us reveal the data that disproves claims of worsening droughts, worsening wildfires, catastrophic sea level rise, and a dying Great Barrier Reef.

You might be surprised by what’s true and what’s not.

If you missed Part 1, you can watch it here.

via YouTube

climate-debate

WPR Blames Climate Change For ‘Record Start’ Of Wildfire Season. Data Burns That Claim

by H. Sterling Burnett, Ar 23, 2025 in ClimateChangeDispatch

wisconsin forest fire
Wisconsin Public Radio (WPR) ran a story blaming the unusual number of wildfires in the state in January and February on climate change. This is wrong. One year’s early start to the wildfire season can’t be blamed on climate change. [emphasis, links added]

Only a long-term trend of increasing or increasingly early wildfires would suggest climate change as a factor in this year’s fires, but no such trend exists.

A buildup of vegetation due to improved rainfall conditions in previous years, human populations expanding into the urban/forest interface, and more human-sparked fires from carelessness and arson, is the cause unusual number of wildfires starting off the year in 2025.

The WPR story, “Wisconsin sees record start to the fire season as climate change drives more blazes,” which is long on speculation but short on hard data and evidence, says:

“Wisconsin saw a record number of fires in January and February this year due to a lack of snow as climate change has set the stage for more wildfires,” says Danielle Kaeding, WPR’s environment and energy reporter for Northern Wisconsin. “Wisconsin averages 864 wildfires that burn around 1,800 acres each year, according to the state Department of Natural Resources.

“The state had already seen more than 470 fires as of Monday, double the average for this time of year. More than 1,900 acres have already been set ablaze,” Kaeding continues.

Kaeding interviewed Jim Bernier, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) forest fire section manager, about the fires, which he blamed on two years of drought caused by climate change.

“With these droughty conditions that we’re experiencing, we’re seeing these fire-staffing needs occurring more and more all year round,” Bernier said. “We’ve never had this many fires in January and February ever in the state of Wisconsin,”

Bernier’s claim is belied by the fact that Wisconsin is not in drought, and especially not an unusually severe drought.

Data from the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) shows that in January through March of 2025, precipitation was nearly an inch above normal, with 2025 being the 35th wettest year [since] 1895. At present, no counties in Wisconsin are designated as being under Drought Disaster conditions.

Long-term drought data for Wisconsin show that over the past 30 years, drought conditions have been less severe than historically common, with the last decade being particularly wet in general. (See the graph from NIDIS, below.)

The fact that Wisconsin has not suffered unusual degrees of drought or extremely hot temperatures in recent years is confirmed in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Wisconsin State Climate Summary, which reports that the number of very hot days in Wisconsin has declined sharply over the past century, while the amount of winter and summer precipitation has either slightly increased or remained about the same.

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