by P. Homewood, February 17, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
There is a footnote to yesterday’s story about the huge adjustments made by NOAA to the temperature record in NY State.
Recall the Jan 2018 temperatures for the three stations we looked at, as derived from the actual station data: (…)
by K. Richard, October 16, 2017 in NoTricksZone
A recently highlighted paper published by atmospheric scientists Scafetta et al., (2017) featured a graph (above) documenting post-2000 trends in the published estimates of the Earth’s climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentrations (from 280 parts per million to 560 ppm).
by Kip Hansen, February 14, 2018 in WUWT
Prologue: I have been writing recently about Sea Level Rise, both as particular local examples ( Guam, Canton, Miami, New York, and NY/NJ ) and in the series SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall, of which this is the fourth-plus installment.
In Part 4, I showed how one gets a rise out of nothing, a neat trick performed by Nerem et al. That’s R. Steven Nerem, of the CU Sea Level Research Group. The blinking image is the summary of that essay.
by Thomas Frederikse, 2018 in AMS
Different sea level reconstructions show a spread in sea level rise over the last six decades and it is not yet certain whether the sum of contributors explains the reconstructed rise (…)
by Larry Hamlin, February 13, 2018 in WUWT
The record snowfalls of 2018 that are sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere and continuing the growth trend in winter snowfall levels provide yet more compelling evidence that the UN IPCC AR5 WG1 climate report and models are flawed because this report concludes that future snowfall level trends will only decline.(…)
by Dr S. Crockford, February 12, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch
It acknowledges that polar bear numbers have not declined in recent years even though summer sea ice dropped dramatically but goes on to perpetuate a number of myths that might not have happened if the author had done his homework or quizzed his other experts as thoroughly as he did me.
by A. Watts, February 12, 2018 in WUWT
Arctic Weather Brrrrreaking Records
Rankin Inlet, Nunavut gets cold in the winter. Located on the northwestern shore of the Hudson Bay at 62 degrees north and between Chesterfield Inlet and Arviat, the town is definitely in a remote yet exposed region. Weather is just a part of life and recently the weather has been colder than cold.
by Terri Cook, February 9, 2018, In WUWT A. Watts
Medieval Temperature Trends in Africa and Arabia
A synthesis of paleotemperature reconstructions from published case studies suggests warm onshore temperatures persisted across most of Afro-Arabia between 1000 and 1200 CE. (…)
Preliminary Conclusions:
1. During the first 2000 years of our 5000-year civilization, most of the time, the annual average temperature was 2ºC higher than now. The temperature in January was 3-5ºC higher than now.
2. From then on, there was a series of temperature fluctuations. The lowest temperatures occurred in AD 1000, 400, 1200, and 1700. The range of fluctuation was 1-2ºC.
3. In every 400-800 period, a smaller cycle lasting 50 to 100 years can be detected with a temperature range of 0.5 -1ºC.
4. During the above cycles, it seems that any coldest period started from the Pacific coast of East Asia. The cold waves then moved westward to Europe and the Atlantic coasts. And at the same time, there were also trends from the North to the South.
by A. Watts, February 9, 2018, in WUWT
Surprise! Poster child for sea level rise, Tuvalu, is actually growing!
From the “we told you so, again, and again” department. We’ve had several articles about the island of Tuvalu and the ridiculous claims of sea level rise causing it to disappear, while at the same time they are building new hotels and airports to attract tourists. Willis has also had several articles on how Pacific atolls grow, and float, rather than sink as sea level advances.
Now, a study confirms what we’ve already known – atolls, and in particular Tuvalu is growing, and increasing land area. So much for climate alarmism. From Nature communications:
by J.A. Marusek, February 2018, in WUWT
The sun is the natural source of heat and light for our planet. Without our sun, the earth would be a cold dead planet adrift in space. But the sun is not constant. It changes and these subtle changes affect the Earth’s climate and weather.
At the end of solar cycle 23, sunspot activity declined to a level not seen since the year 1913. [Comparing Yearly Mean Total Sunspot Numbers1]
The following was observed during the solar cycle 24: (…)
by P Homewood, February 10, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
As mentioned yesterday, scientists now believe we could be heading into a 50 year period of reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century, which could lead to a drop in global temperatures of “several tenths of a degree Celsius”.
As has been pointed out, climate is a far more complex matter than climate scientists admit, and one about which we still know very little.
Whether a Maunder-like Minimum will happen again in the next few years, and whether it will have the effect claimed, remain to be seen.
But there is considerable evidence that the Maunder Minimum did coincide with a sharp fall in temperatures across the NH, as NASA show above.
See also here
by A. Watts, February 4, 2018 in WUWT
We’ve been told over an over again that global warming would melt the icecaps, and melt Greenland, and that would result in catastrophic sea level rise flooding cities. We’ve also been told that “sea level rise is “accelerating” but in an investigation done here on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach, Putting the Brakes on Acceleration, he noted in 2011 that there seems to be no evidence of it at all, and notes that sea level was rising faster in the first half of the record.
by Nic Lewis, February 5, 2018 in ClimateAudit
Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’. It appears to me that the novel part of its analysis is faulty, and that the part which isn’t faulty isn’t novel.
by P. Gosselin, February 2, 2018 in NoTricksZone
Over the past months a spate of scientific papers published show sea level rise has not accelerated like many climate warming scientists warned earlier. The reality is that the rise is far slower than expected, read here and here
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by Sheldon Walker, February 3, 2018 in WUWT
I recently read an article by Tamino aka Grant Foster of Portland, ME, called “Global Warming: the Relentless Trend“.
Many of the points that he made annoyed me, and I started to write an article to document his many errors. Half way through the article, I suddenly realised that some of the issues that skeptics and warmists argue about, like slowdowns and pauses, are caused by the terminology, and the definitions of the words that we use.
So that you can enjoy how I was going to trash Tamino’s article, I will leave in the half of the article that I had already written, before I had my revelation.
by C.E. Manchego et al., December 21, 2017 in PLOS_One
Using presence-only modeling and native forest masks from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment, we obtained approximations of characteristic tree species distributions in the dry deciduous forest of southwestern Ecuador, which are threatened by deforestation and climate change. Our estimates indicate that deforestation affects more spatial range than climate change, even under an extreme climate change scenario. Despite this result, climate change may cause additional stress at the species and community levels
by Roy W. Spencer, February 1st, 2018, in GlobalWarmnig
Coolest tropics since June, 2012 at -0.12 deg. C.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2018 was +0.26 deg. C, down from the December, 2017 value of +0.41 deg. C
by A Watts, September 10, 2009 in WUWT
UPDATED: This opinion piece from Professor Henrik Svensmark was published September 9th in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten. Originally the translation was from Google translation with some post translation cleanup of jumbled words or phrases by myself. Now as of Sept 12, the translation is by Nigel Calder. Hat tip to Carsten Arnholm of Norway for bringing this to my attention and especially for translation facilitation by Ágúst H Bjarnason – Anthony
(…)
by Ron Clutz, January 31, 2018 inClimateChangeDispatch
The question could be paraphrased in these words: Why are there differences between various graphs that report changes in global temperatures?
The short answer is: The differences arise both from what is measured and how the measurements are processed. (…)
by P Gosselin, January 31, 2018 in NoTricksZone
Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt today here are asking how sea level rise is doing because as have not heard much about it lately. A good place to start is at Climate4You. Strangely the data go only until December 2016. And if you look at the data from the source form the University of Colorado, we find the same. So what’s with 2017?
(…)
by Rysgaard et al., January 22, 2018 in NatureSci.Reports
The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is losing mass at an increasing rate due to surface melt and flow acceleration in outlet glaciers. Currently, there is a large disagreement between observed and simulated ice flow, which may arise from inaccurate parameterization of basal motion, subglacial hydrology or geothermal heat sources. Recently it was suggested that there may be a hidden heat source beneath GIS caused by a higher than expected geothermal heat flux (GHF) from the Earth’s interior.
by Eric Worrall, January 30, 2018 in WUWT
Fifteen years of satellite measurements have unexpectedly shown that parts of Greenland are getting colder. But the scientists who produced these results urge people to believe that this cooling trend is a blip, because climate models say Greenland should be warming.
(…)
by Javier, January 30, 2018 in AndyMay WUWT
Climate change is a reality attested by past records. Concerns about preparing and adapting for climate change are real. However, the idea that we can prevent climate change from happening is dangerous and might be anti-adaptive. Certain energy policies that might have no effect on climate change could make us less able to adapt.
Physics shows that adding carbon dioxide leads to warming under laboratory conditions. It is generally assumed that a doubling of CO2 should produce a direct forcing of 3.7 W/m2 [1], that translates to a warming of 1°C (by differentiating the Stefan-Boltzmann equation) to 1.2°C (by models taking into account latitude and season). But that is a maximum value valid only if total energy outflow is the same as radiative outflow. As there is also conduction, convection, and evaporation, the final warming without feedbacks is probably less. Then we have the problem of feedbacks that we don’t know and cannot properly measure. For some of the feedbacks, like cloud cover we don’t even know the sign of their contribution. And they are huge, a 1% change in albedo has a radiative effect of 3.4 W/m2 [2], almost equivalent to a full doubling of CO2.
by Uzbek, 24 janvier 2018 in ClimatEnv&Energie
Dans un communiqué du 18 janvier 2018, l’OMM (Organisation météorologique mondiale) classe 2017 dans les trois années les plus chaudes depuis le début des mesures. Le record reste détenu par l’année 2016 (+ 1,2° C au-dessus des températures de la période pré industrielle) suivie par l’année 2015 (+ 1,1° C) toutes deux influencées par un épisode El Niño intense.
L’année 2017 serait ainsi l’année la plus chaude sans influence d’un phénomène El Niño. L’OMM suggère ainsi une reprise du réchauffement mondial après une pause des températures de plus de 17 ans.
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