by JunkScience, Jan 5, 2023
Ten bogus climate claims and more from December 2023 debunked here.
December ended with the so-called “newspaper of record” running with this graph of infamy:
by P. Homewood, Jan 7 ,2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKonwThat
Last year was a wet one in England & Wales, the 7th wettest on record. (The UK series has a similar result).
We routinely hear claims that the climate is wetter because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, (while also being told we will get more droughts!). However the fact that we have had similarly wet years in the distant past, such as 1768, 1852, 1872, 1877, 1882, 1903 and 1960, rather demolishes that argument.
The major factor behind last year’s high rainfall was that the number of rain days was also one of the highest on record since 1931, when Met Office daily data begins. In short, annual rainfall was high because of weather, not climate.
by D. Whitehouse, Dec 20, 2023 in NetZeroWatch
While 2023 will be the warmest year of the instrumental era, nobody knows why or what it means for the future of climate trends.
As can be seen from the year-to-date graph from NOAA below, 2023 started off with non-exceptional global temperature average – but from June onwards all months broke global records. Such was the cooler start to the year that it was only in September that it became apparent that 2023 could be the warmest year, surpassing the previous holder – 2016 – another El Nino year.
Clearly El Nino has a lot to do with it, coming after an unusual three years of La Nina events that tend to absorb heat in the oceans, releasing it in a subsequent El Nino, as has now happened. So as far as this represents “accelerating climate change” (as NOAA contends) it is debatable as it is mostly a delayed heat distribution, but time will tell.
It is pertinent to say that climate scientists were a little puzzled at this year’s sudden temperature surge as they cannot quite explain it: their models neither predict it nor are they able to account for the surprise. Other factors have contributed to it including the ongoing lifting of the aerosol pollution, especially by China, and the use of new formula ship fuels. The Hunga Tonga explosion that injected water vapour into the stratosphere might have had an effect, though probably a minor one. The Sun reaching the peak of the solar cycle will also have had a small influence.
All this means that 2024 could be another record year if the El Nino progresses, but 2025 will probably see global temperatures fall somewhat. Some have speculated that this will make 2024 the first year to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C threshold, although a single year is not indicative of a long term trend.
But how would we know we have passed this threshold?
by Jo Nova, Dec19, 2023 in JoNova
The best kept secret in the world is that humans are using more coal than ever
So much for the “stranded dead asset”. In 2022 the world set a new all-time record for coal use — reaching 8.4 billion tons. In 2023, despite all the Net Zero billions in spending, despite the boom in windmills and solar panels, global demand for coal will top 8.54 billion tons.
The IEA is the “International Energy Agency” — supposedly, the impartial servant of 31 nations worth of taxpayers. Yet they decided to ignore the world record and instead tell us how coal is set to decline. It’s what they think the taxpayers need to hear. Their press release:
by P. Homewood, Dec 1, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
As even CBS own chart shows, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has only been average.
Instead it is those named storms, which did not reach hurricane strength, that have been above average. And as we know, this is simply because we are able to spot many more of these short lived, weak storms with the help of satellites, along with the fact that many storms are now named which would not have been categorised as Tropical Storms in the past.
First, let’s look at the actual data.
The best record we have is for US landfalling hurricanes, with reliable data back as far as the 1900. According to the US Hurricane Research Division (HRD):
Because of the sparseness of towns and cities before 1900 in some coastal locations along the United States, the above list is not complete for all states. Before the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts became settled, hurricanes may have been underestimated in their intensity or missed completely for small-sized systems (i.e., 2004’s Hurricane Charley).
by P. Homewood, Oct 6, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
The latest of many heat records broken this year is putting the world on course for its hottest year ever, and is a sign of what is to come in future, according to scientists.
Last month was not only the hottest September on record, new data has confirmed, but it was higher by a margin described by stunned scientists as “extraordinary”, “huge” and “whopping”.
I’ll ignore the ignorance of journalists who think that the world started in the 19thC, during the Little Ice Age. And the fact that a “global average temperature” is a meaningless construct, which assumes you can average completely different things.
According to satellite data, the temperature anomaly last month was 0.24C higher than the previous peak in 2016:
The idea that GHGs can make such a difference in such a short period of time is utterly absurd. But the Sky report does give us a clue:
By P. Homewood, Sep 2, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
As can be seen, the rate of loss in the last decade is similar to the 1930s, 50s and 60s. During the 1970s and 80s, Greenland’s climate grew much colder, and the ice mass loss almost stopped completely.
Significantly the rate of loss now is not accelerating, as you may have assumed from what the media have told you. On the contrary, the rate of loss has been slowing down since 2012.
The average annual loss between 2013 and 2022 was 184 Gt, which equates to 0.51mm sea level rise a year.
In short there is nothing alarming or unprecedented about the tiny amount of ice melt in Greenland.
by J. Curry, Aug 15, 2023 in WUWT
A deep dive into the causes of the unusual weather/climate during 2023. People are blaming fossil-fueled warming and El Nino, and now the Hunga-Tonga eruption and the change in ship fuels. But the real story is more complicated.
Starting in June, the global temperatures are outpacing the record year 2016 (Figure 1).
Figure 1. From Copernicus ECMWF
Here is the time series of the monthly surface temperature anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis (Figure 2). The July 2023 spike was of comparable magnitude to the winter 2016 anomaly which occurred in late winter.
Here is the time series of the monthly lower atmospheric temperature anomalies from the UAH satellite-based analysis. The July 2023 temperature anomaly remains slightly below the peak 2016 temperature anomalies and comparable to the peak 1998 temperature anomaly.
Figure 3. Plot from Roy Spencer
The spatial variation of July temperature anomalies is shown below (Figure 4). The ERA5 is the long-standing standard for global reanalyses; the JMA-Q3 (Japan) is a new product that uses a more sophisticated data assimilation process, and I expect it to be at least as good as the ERA5. Superficially, the spatial variability looks pretty much the same, but it is informative to compare the regional amounts of warming which differ significantly between the two reanalyses. Warming is greatest in the Antarctic, and lowest in the Arctic. The warming is also very strong over the NH midlatitude oceans.
The polar regions are of particular interest. The Arctic sea ice is healthy – Arctic sea ice extent for July was only the twelfth lowest in the satellite record. Greenland mass balance (snow accumulation minus melt) for July is above average relative to 1980-2010. The Antarctic is a different story. Antarctic winter sea ice is extremely low, much lower than any wintertime observations since the beginning of the satellite record in 1980. The warm anomaly near Antarctica is an effect the reduced sea ice extent, not a direct cause. The Antarctic ozone hole is opening very early.
by R. Cutler, May 25, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch
Global warming completely stopped in 2018. Temperatures will likely remain steady until 2025 and may decline slightly by 2030.
A strong El Niño in 2023 is unlikely.
I’ll explain all of my predictions — after we hear from the experts. [emphasis, links added]
NOAA recently predicted a 55% chance of a strong El Niñoin late 2023.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) threw more fuel on the fire when it announced, “There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.”
Obviously, the MSM had a field day with this. Take for example this headline from USA Today: “Scientists warn an El Niño is likely coming that could bring scorching heat to Earth.”
Rather than taking the well-worn path of pointing out flaws in the predictions of NOAA, the IPCC, or the WMO, I’ll instead show how the sun is likely responsible for almost every detail in global temperaturesover the last 125 years, and that it is also responsible for triggering strong El Niños.
Two empirical, or black-box models were created to predict global temperature. The first model uses solar magnetic field data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO).
Solar magnetic field data collection began in 1976. The complete WSO dataset can be viewed in a single graphic, often referred to as a butterfly diagram.
It looks complicated, but it’s really not. It’s just a plot of solar magnetic field intensity over time as a function of the sun’s latitude. The two colors represent north and south polarity magnetism.
Unlike the Earth, where magnetic north has conveniently stayed in the Northern Hemisphere for the last 780,000 years, the sun’s magnetic field changes polarity every 11 years.