climate-debate

A possible compromise on global warming slowdowns and pauses

by Sheldon Walker, February 3, 2018 in WUWT

I recently read an article by Tamino aka Grant Foster of Portland, ME, called “Global Warming: the Relentless Trend“.

Many of the points that he made annoyed me, and I started to write an article to document his many errors. Half way through the article, I suddenly realised that some of the issues that skeptics and warmists argue about, like slowdowns and pauses, are caused by the terminology, and the definitions of the words that we use.

So that you can enjoy how I was going to trash Tamino’s article, I will leave in the half of the article that I had already written, before I had my revelation.

climate-debate

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

by C.E. Manchego et al.,  December 21, 2017 in PLOS_One

Using presence-only modeling and native forest masks from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment, we obtained approximations of characteristic tree species distributions in the dry deciduous forest of southwestern Ecuador, which are threatened by deforestation and climate change. Our estimates indicate that deforestation affects more spatial range than climate change, even under an extreme climate change scenario. Despite this result, climate change may cause additional stress at the species and community levels

climate and geology

Study: Early humans witnessed global cooling, warming, and massive fires from comet debris impacts

by U. of Kansas, February 2, 2018 in WUWT, A. Watts

 On a ho-hum day some 12,800 years ago, the Earth had emerged from another ice age. Things were warming up, and the glaciers had retreated.

Out of nowhere, the sky was lit with fireballs. This was followed by shock waves.

Fires rushed across the landscape, and dust clogged the sky, cutting off the sunlight. As the climate rapidly cooled, plants died, food sources were snuffed out, and the glaciers advanced again. Ocean currents shifted, setting the climate into a colder, almost “ice age” state that lasted an additional thousand years.

Finally, the climate began to warm again, and people again emerged into a world with fewer large animals and a human culture in North America that left behind completely different kinds of spear points.

better to know...?

DO-IT-YOURSELF TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION

by M.  Chase, February 2, 2018 in WUWT

This article describes a simple but effective procedure for regional average temperature reconstruction, a procedure that you, yes you dear reader, can fully understand and, if you have some elementary programming skills, can implement.

To aid readability, and to avoid the risk of getting it wrong, no attempt is made in the article to give proper attribution to previous work of others, but a link is provided at the end to where a list of references can be found.

(…)

better to know...?

Amid a warming planet, snow falls in Southern Morocco – first time in 50 years

by A. Watts, January 31, 2018 in WUWT

After several decades of extremely dry weather, residents in southern regions of Morocco finally woke up this morning to an unusual snowfall that currently impacted Ouarzazate, Taroudant and even Zagora, which has not experienced snowfall for fifty years.

Several photos and videos have been posted on social media depicting the cities covered with a huge layer of snow. Despite the freezing cold temperatures, many residents went outside to enjoy the unexpected snowfall.

climate-debate

Svensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”

by A Watts, September 10, 2009 in WUWT

UPDATED: This opinion piece from Professor Henrik Svensmark was published September 9th in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten. Originally the translation was from Google translation with some post translation cleanup of jumbled words or phrases by myself. Now as of Sept 12, the translation is by Nigel Calder.  Hat tip to Carsten Arnholm of Norway for bringing this to my attention and especially for translation facilitation by Ágúst H Bjarnason – Anthony

(…)

energy and fields

US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970

by Patti Domm, January 31, 2018 in CBNC

  • U.S. crude oil production broke 10 million barrels a day in November for the first time since production peaked in 1970, at the start of a decades long decline.
  • The U.S. is the world’s third largest oil producer, and its status is growing. Russia is the largest, with about 11 million barrels a day. The U.S. output rivals Saudi Arabia, which has had production of 10.6 million barrels a day, but currently has cut back due to the OPEC deal with Russia and others to keep supply off the market.
  • The U.S. production is expected to expand and could top 12 million barrels a day by the end of 2019, according to Dan Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman.
climate-debate

Latest Data Show NO SEA LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION Since 1993…Coasts: Less Than 2 Millimeters Rise Annually!

by P Gosselin, January 31, 2018 in NoTricksZone

Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt today here are asking how sea level rise is doing because as have not heard much about it lately. A good place to start is at Climate4You. Strangely the data go only until December 2016. And if you look at the data from the source form the University of Colorado, we find the same. So what’s with 2017?

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biology+acidification

The Resilience of a Coralline Red Algae to Ocean Acidification

by  Donald et al. 2017, in CO2Science from Géochim.Cosmochim.Acta

The influence of pHsw on both pHcf and the calcification rate of Neogoniolithon is plotted in Figure 1 below. As indicated there, this coralline algal species is able to elevate its pHcf so as to increase its rate of calcification under moderate levels of ocean acidification (pHsw of 7.91 and 8.05), which increase the authors say is “most likely due to CO2-fertilization of [algal] photosynthesis” that is limited in Neogoniolithon at these lower pCO2 conditions. (….)

energy and fields, press and newspapers

U.S. on Track to Top Russia as World’s Largest Oil Producer, Upending Global Trade and Geopolitics

by Haaretz and Reuters, January 29, 2018

Surging shale production is poised to continue pushing U.S. oil output to more than 10 million barrels per day – toppling a record set in 1970 and crossing a threshold few could have imagined even a decade ago. The U.S. government forecasts that the nation’s production will climb to 11 million barrels a day by late 2019, a level that would rival Russia, the world’s top producer.

(…)

New technology, new fields

The next phase of shale output growth depends on techniques to squeeze more oil from each well. Companies are now putting sensors on drill bits to more precisely access oil deposits, using artificial intelligence and remote operators to get the most out of equipment and trained engineers.

climate-debate

High geothermal heat flux in close proximity to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

by Rysgaard et al., January 22, 2018 in NatureSci.Reports

The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is losing mass at an increasing rate due to surface melt and flow acceleration in outlet glaciers. Currently, there is a large disagreement between observed and simulated ice flow, which may arise from inaccurate parameterization of basal motion, subglacial hydrology or geothermal heat sources. Recently it was suggested that there may be a hidden heat source beneath GIS caused by a higher than expected geothermal heat flux (GHF) from the Earth’s interior.

climate-debate

What are, in fact, the grounds for concern about global warming?

by Javier, January 30, 2018 in AndyMay WUWT

Climate change is a reality attested by past records. Concerns about preparing and adapting for climate change are real. However, the idea that we can prevent climate change from happening is dangerous and might be anti-adaptive. Certain energy policies that might have no effect on climate change could make us less able to adapt.

Physics shows that adding carbon dioxide leads to warming under laboratory conditions. It is generally assumed that a doubling of CO2 should produce a direct forcing of 3.7 W/m2 [1], that translates to a warming of 1°C (by differentiating the Stefan-Boltzmann equation) to 1.2°C (by models taking into account latitude and season). But that is a maximum value valid only if total energy outflow is the same as radiative outflow. As there is also conduction, convection, and evaporation, the final warming without feedbacks is probably less. Then we have the problem of feedbacks that we don’t know and cannot properly measure. For some of the feedbacks, like cloud cover we don’t even know the sign of their contribution. And they are huge, a 1% change in albedo has a radiative effect of 3.4 W/m2 [2], almost equivalent to a full doubling of CO2.

climate-debate

Un El Niño hors norme ne signifie pas la reprise du réchauffement mondial

by Uzbek, 24 janvier 2018 in ClimatEnv&Energie

Dans un communiqué du 18 janvier 2018, l’OMM (Organisation météorologique mondiale) classe 2017 dans les trois années les plus chaudes depuis le début des mesures. Le record reste détenu par l’année 2016 (+ 1,2° C au-dessus des températures de la période pré industrielle) suivie par l’année 2015 (+ 1,1° C) toutes deux influencées par un épisode El Niño intense.

L’année 2017 serait ainsi l’année la plus chaude sans influence d’un phénomène El Niño. L’OMM suggère ainsi une reprise du réchauffement mondial après une pause des températures de plus de 17 ans.

(…)

better to know...?, pollution-contamination

L’ Empire des Métaux Rares

by Edouard Guigue, 13 janvier 2018

Que sont les métaux rares ? Des ressources peu connues mais essentielles au fonctionnement de l’espace mondialisé. Insérées au cœur de tout appareil électronique, sans elles aucune de nos technologies numériques n’existerait. Composant également la plupart de nos technologies vertes (éoliennes, panneaux solaires ou voitures électriques), leurs modes de production laissent toutefois perplexe sur leur capacité à s’établir comme alternatives durables aux énergies fossiles. La pollution ne serait pas réduite mais simplement délocalisée… essentiellement en Chine où 95% des terres rares sont produites. Un chiffre qui par ailleurs devrait nous alarmer sur la situation de dépendance à la Chine dans laquelle le reste du monde  -dont l’Europe- se trouve depuis les années 1980. Guillaume Pitron nous présente une enquête de six ans, dont les résultats sont à retrouver dans son livre La guerre des métaux rares.

climate-debate

Why 2017’s “Third Warmest Year on Record” is a Yawner

by E. Calvin Beisner, January 29, 2018 in WUWT

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) press release headline January 18 was blunt: “NOAA: 2017 was 3rd warmest year on record for the globe.” The tagline that followed made the inference obligatory for all climate alarmists: “NOAA, NASA scientists confirm Earth’s long-term warming trend continues” (emphasis added).

The New York Times trumpeted, “2017 Was One of the Hottest Years on Record,” adding, “Scientists at NASA on Thursday ranked last year as the second-warmest year since reliable record-keeping began in 1880, trailing only 2016. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which uses a different analytical method, ranked it third, behind 2016 and 2015.”

The UK Guardian likewise proclaimed, “2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming.”

Similar headlines appeared around the world. (…)

climate-debate

Greenland Is Getting Colder–New Study

by P Homewood, January 29, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Using satellite data, a group of scientists has studied the development of temperature over the past 15 years in a large part of Greenland.

More precisely, they looked at surface temperatures (the temperature close to the Earth’s surface) in a part of the country that is not covered by ice—around one fifth of the surface area of Greenland.

Intuitively, you may think that temperature throughout all of Greenland has been increasing, but that is not the case. When you look at the yearly average, the ice-free parts of Greenland show a slight drop in temperature between 2001 and 2015. With swings in temperature from year to year.

However, these results should not be interpreted as “proof” that the Earth is not warming, say the scientists behind the research, which is published in the journal Scientific Reports.

climate-debate, press and newspapers

GREEN MYTH EXPOSED: CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS JUMPED BY 4% LAST YEAR

by The New York Times, January 26, 2018 in GWPF

Experts say one annual increase doesn’t indicate China is returning to an era when its emissions grew by leaps and bounds. But the increase illustrates the challenges and compromises Beijing must juggle if it wants to stoke its economy and at the same time keep its environmental promises. […]

See also here and  here

energy and fields, press and newspapers

Oil Boom Gives the U.S. a New Edge in Energy and Diplomacy

by Clifford Krauss, January 28, 2018 in TheNewYorkTimes

HOUSTON — A substantial rise in oil prices in recent months has led to a resurgence in American oil production, enabling the country to challenge the dominance of Saudi Arabia and dampen price pressures at the pump.

The success has come in the face of efforts by Saudi Arabia and its oil allies to undercut the shale drilling spree in the United States. Those strategies backfired and ultimately ended up benefiting the oil industry.

Overcoming three years of slumping prices proved the resiliency of the shale boom. Energy companies and their financial backers were able to weather market turmoil — and the maneuvers of the global oil cartel — by adjusting exploration and extraction techniques.

climate-debate

Global SST data confirms cooling is on the way

by P Homewood, January 27, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

I see that reality is beginning to intrude upon the dangerous global warming team. They say ” it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus’.”
Climate is controlled by natural cycles. Earth is just past the 2003+/- peak of a millennial cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little Ice Age minimum at about 2650.See the Energy and Environment paper at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958305X16686488
and an earlier accessible blog version at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html

climate-debate

Le climat et son histoire

by Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, 2012 in CairnInfo

Beaucoup de gens, à juste titre, sont impressionnés par les prédictions pessimistes du GIEC  relativement à la fin du xxie siècle, et il est fort possible que ces prédictions soient justifiées. La tâche de l’historien, c’est plutôt de resituer l’histoire du climat dans des périodes récentes ou moins récentes et de réfléchir, ensuite, en toute indépendance, en toute objectivité, sur ce qui nous attend, tant en fonction de ce qui s’est passé déjà, qu’en fonction des résultats impressionnants que nous proposent, avec raison sans doute, les sciences exactes.

climate-debate

Crucial Climate Verdict, Fledgling Evidence

by Donna Laframboise, January 26, 2018 in BigPictureNews

BIG PICTURE: In 1995, a 40-year-old climate modeller named Ben Santer was in charge of Chapter 8 of the UN’s upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Nothing in the other 49 chapters mattered more than the question his team was expected to answer: Was global climate change wholly natural – or was it partially caused by human activity?

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse