by K. Richard, March 29, 2018 in NoTricksZone
Steve McIntyre Spots ‘Several Errors’ Corrupting Arctic 2k; Some Are Corrected In 2014
Steve McIntyre, known for his evisceration of the questionable data-collection processes in the construction of “hockey stick” graphs, identified several suspicious “errors” corrupting the Arctic data set. He wrote about them on his blog.
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by Nic Lewis, March 29, 2018 in ClimateAudit (Steve McIntyre)
The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions
In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et al. (2018),[2] who concluded that only four of them were credible. An extract of the rows of Table 1 of Part 1 detailing those four emergent constraints is given below.[3]
by Renee Hannon, March 28, 2018 in WUWT
In the mid-1900’s many scientists were suggesting the Earth was cooling. Now scientists are forecasting global warming. Indeed, instrumental data shows global temperatures warmed by approximately 1-degree C during the past 165+ years. With warming rates of 0.5 to over 1.3 degrees C per century this has caused considerable alarm for many. This recent warming is commonly attributed to increasing greenhouse gases, primarily CO2.
This post examines natural paleoclimate trends and simple characteristics of past and present climate cycles at different time scales.
by D.C. McLaren et al., 2018 in PLOS.ONE
Little is known about the ice age human occupation of the Pacific Coast of Canada. Here we present the results of a targeted investigation of a late Pleistocene shoreline on Calvert Island, British Columbia. Drawing upon existing geomorphic information that sea level in the area was 2–3 m lower than present between 14,000 and 11,000 years ago, we began a systematic search for archaeological remains dating to this time period beneath intertidal beach sediments (…)
by P. Gosselin, March 28,2018 in NoTricksZone
German CO2 equivalent emissions refuse to budge 10 straight years running, despite hundreds of BILLIONS invested in green energies.
As we have been hearing recently, global CO2 emissions continue their steady climb, despite the trillions of dollars committed to green energy sources worldwide and efforts to curb CO2 emissions.
by P. Homewood, March 29, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Just as a follow up to my earlier post on German GHG emissions, I have looked at the comparative energy consumption figures for 2009 and 2016 (…)
by Anthony Watts, March 27, 2018 in WUWT
A new paper published by NASA by Tsigaridis and Kanakidou suggests that climate models have missed the forcing effects of organic aerosols, such as VOC’s from trees, oceans, and other sources that combine chemically in the atmosphere to create new compounds. Known as Secondary organic aerosols (SOA), they say “SOA forcing could exceed that of sulfate and black carbon”.
by Tony Heller, March 27, 2018 in CimateChangeDispatch
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The key to understanding this can be found in the 2004 Smithsonian article. The Tuvalu story (like everything else with global warming) has always been about left-wing politics and money, not science.
But not all scientists agree that Tuvalu’s future is underwater. Some critics have branded island leaders as opportunists angling for foreign handouts and special recognition for would-be “environmental refugees” who, they say, are exploiting the crisis to gain entry to New Zealand and Australia. Others have even said that people and organizations sympathetic to Tuvalu are “eco-imperialists” intent on imposing their alarmist environmental views on the rest of the world.
And of course the same fake story in the Maldives, which were supposed to be underwater by 2018.
by F. Guldstrand et al., 2018 in Front.Earth.Sci.
Key Points
• We quantitatively analyse pre-eruptive intrusion-induced surface deformation from 33 scaled laboratory experiments resulting in eruptions.
• A robust proxy extracted from surface deformation geometry enables systematic predictions of the locations of a subsurface intrusion and imminent eruption.
• Forecasting an eruption location is possible without geodetic modeling but requires volcano monitoring at high spatiotemporal resolution.
by D. Wallace-Wells, March 26, 2018 in WUWT
Remember Paris? It was not even two years ago that the celebrated climate accords were signed — defining two degrees of global warming as a must-meet target and rallying all the world’s nations to meet it — and the returns are already dispiritingly grim.
This week, the International Energy Agency announced that carbon emissions grew 1.7 percent in 2017, after an ambiguous couple of years optimists hoped represented a leveling off, or peak; instead, we’re climbing again (…)
by Paul Homewood, March 27, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
The GWPF has published its State of the Climate 2017 Report, written by Ole Humlum, former Professor of Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, and Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Oslo, Norway.
Here are the main points:
• ……..
••••…..
by Kelly Gilblom, March 26, 2018 in BloombergMarkets
The world’s largest oil companies have survived a life-changing crisis, and are now poised to reap the rewards, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
Big Oil is in a sweet spot with rising oil prices and low operating costs, leaving them with the biggest cash-flow growth in two decades and boosting earnings, Goldman said in a report Monday. That will increase their attraction for investors after years of elevated spending followed by crude’s slump sent their weighting in global equity indexes to a 50-year low, according to the bank (…)
by P. Homewood, March 2, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Everybody makes mistakes, and some of them matter. On the BBC’s News at Ten on the 18th January 2018 there were two of them, and the GWPF complained a few days later.
The first error was in describing the global temperature of 2017 as the “hottest year on record,” which it wasn’t.
The second mistake was that the BBC’s Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin said that, “2017 had no heating from El Nino,” which was also incorrect.
We pointed out that whilst 2017 was not designated a year in which there was an El Nino event (defined as a period with prolonged El Nino heating) there was in fact El Nino heating in the northern spring for 11 weeks, and we provided a graph to prove it. (Click on image to enlarge)(…)
by Jo Moreau, 25 mars 2018 in Belgotopia
Suite n° 18. (anno 1800-1849)
“Le contenu de la mémoire est fonction de la vitesse de l’oubli”
Désormais, chaque inondation quelque peu catastrophique, chaque tornade, chaque anomalie météorologique est rattachée au réchauffement climatique qui parait-il nous menace, mais dont en plus l’homme serait responsable !
Pourtant, la consultation de chroniques ou récits anciens est révélatrice de précédents tout aussi apocalyptiques, et relativise la notion même de “changements climatiques”, ainsi que la définition d’un “climat stable” qui n’a jamais existé mais qu’on voudrait instaurer à tout prix.
by JoNova, March 18, 2018
A funny thing happens when you line up satellite and surface temperatures over Australia. A lot of the time they are very close, but some years the surface records from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are cooler by a full half a degree than the UAH satellite readings. Before anyone yells “adjustments”, this appears to be a real difference of instruments, but solving this mystery turns up a rather major flaw in climate models (…)
by K. Richard, March 22, 2018 in NoTricksZone
During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.
We are less than 3 months into the new publication year. Already 46 new graphs from 40+ scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming — or, in some regions, modern cooling — is climatically unusual.
by University of Exeter, March 20, 2018 in PhysOrg
Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the ‘Beast from the East’, could be linked to the solar cycle, pioneering new research has shown.
A new study, led by Dr Indrani Roy from the University of Exeter, has revealed when the solar cycle is in its ‘weaker’ phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter, as well as heavy snowfall across the Eurasian sector.
by P. Homewood, March 23, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Global carbon dioxide emissions rose 1.4 percent in 2017 to a record-setting 32.5 gigatonnes, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Emissions rose after stalling for three years in a row, IEA reported. The Paris climate accord was signed by nearly 200 countries in 2015, which went into effect a year later. One year into the Paris accord, and emissions are on the rise.
IEA’s report echoes findings published by the Global Carbon Project late last year, predicting global emissions would rise 2 percent. The group projected emissions to rise again in 2018.
by Anthony Watts, March 23, 2018 in WUWT
From NASA Goddard:
Sea ice in the Arctic grew to its annual maximum extent last week, and joined 2015, 2016 and 2017 as the four lowest maximum extents on record, according to scientists at the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.
On March 17, the Arctic sea ice cover peaked at 5.59 million square miles (14.48 million square kilometers), making it the second lowest maximum on record, at about 23,200 square miles (60,000 square kilometers) larger than the record low maximum reached on March 7, 2017 (…)
by De Santis et al., 2017 in Int.J.RemoteSensing/in CO2Science
Over the past several years, many researchers have examined the spatial extent of sea ice around Antarctica, consistently reporting an increasing trend (see, for example, our reviews on the previously published works of Yuan and Martinson, 2000, Watkins and Simmonds, 2000, Hanna, 2001, Zwally et al., 2002, Vyas et al., 2003, Cavalieri et al., 2003, Liu et al., 2004, Parkinson, 2004, Comiso and Nishio, 2008, Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2008, Turner et al., 2009, Pezza et al., 2012, Reid et al., 2013, Reid et al., 2015, Simmonds, 2015, He et al., 2016 and Comiso et al., 2017). The latest study to confirm this ongoing expanse comes from the South American research team of De Santis et al. (2017).
by Willis Eschenbach, March 24, 2018 in WUWT
I got to thinking about the “hiatus” in warming in the 21st Century, and I realized that the CERES satellite dataset covers the period since the year 2000. So I’ve graphed up a few views of the temperature changes over the period of the CERES record, which at present is May 2000 to February 2017. No great insights, just a good overview and some interesting findings.
by Willis Eschenbach, March 24, 2018 in WUWT
Much has been made of the argument that natural forcings alone are not sufficient to explain the 20th Century temperature variations. Here’s the IPCC on the subject:
(…)
I’m sure you can see the problems with this. The computer model has been optimized to hindcast the past temperature changes using both natural and anthropogenic forcings … so of course, when you pull a random group of forcings out of the inputs, it will perform more poorly.
by D. Middleton, March 22, 2018 in WUWT
How Does the Recent Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet Compare to the Early Holocene?
Short answer: Same as it ever was. Vinther et al., 2009 reconstructed the elevations of four ice core sites over the Holocene. There has been very little change in elevation of the two interior ice core sites (NGRIP and GRIP), while the two outboard sites (Camp Century and DYE3) have lost 546 and 342 m of ice respectively.
by P. Homewood, March 22, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
You may recall the above report by the BBC, which described how bad last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was, before commenting at the end:
A warmer world is bringing us a greater number of hurricanes and a greater risk of a hurricane becoming the most powerful category 5.
As I promised, I fired off a complaint, which at first they did their best to dodge. After my refusal to accept their reply, they have now been forced to back down.
The above sentence now no longer appears, and instead they now say:
Scientists are still analysing what this data will mean, but a warmer world may bring us a greater number of more powerful category 4 and 5 hurricanes and could bring more extreme rainfall.
Correction 29 January 2018: This story has been updated to clarify that it is modelling rather than historical data that predicts stronger and wetter hurricanes.
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by Kip Hansen, March 20, 2018 in WUWT
What Exactly is Relative Sea Level (rise or fall)?
Tide stations measure Local (Relative) Sea Level, which refers to the height of the water as measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land
There are three possible combinations of relative sea level rise under current geological conditions (…)
