Tous les articles par Alain Préat

Full-time professor at the Free University of Brussels, Belgium apreat@gmail.com apreat@ulb.ac.be • Department of Earth Sciences and Environment Res. Grp. - Biogeochemistry & Modeling of the Earth System Sedimentology & Basin Analysis • Alumnus, Collège des Alumni, Académie Royale de Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux Arts de Belgique (mars 2013). http://www.academieroyale.be/cgi?usr=2a8crwkksq&lg=fr&pag=858&rec=0&frm=0&par=aybabtu&id=4471&flux=8365323 • Prof. Invited, Université de Mons-Hainaut (2010-present-day) • Prof. Coordinator and invited to the Royal Academy of Sciences of Belgium (Belgian College) (2009- present day) • Prof. partim to the DEA (third cycle) led by the University of Lille (9 universities from 1999 to 2004) - Prof. partim at the University of Paris-Sud/Orsay, European-Socrates Agreement (1995-1998) • Prof. partim at the University of Louvain, Convention ULB-UCL (1993-2000) • Since 2015 : Member of Comité éditorial de la Revue Géologie de la France http://geolfrance.brgm.fr • Since 2014 : Regular author of texts for ‘la Revue Science et Pseudosciences’ http://www.pseudo-sciences.org/ • Many field works (several weeks to 2 months) (Meso- and Paleozoic carbonates, Paleo- to Neoproterozoic carbonates) in Europe, USA (Nevada), Papouasia (Holocene), North Africa (Algeria, Morrocco, Tunisia), West Africa (Gabon, DRC, Congo-Brazzaville, South Africa, Angola), Iraq... Recently : field works (3 to 5 weeks) Congo- Brazzaville 2012, 2015, 2016 (carbonate Neoproterozoic). Degree in geological sciences at the Free University of Brussels (ULB) in 1974, I went to Algeria for two years teaching mining geology at the University of Constantine. Back in Belgium I worked for two years as an expert for the EEC (European Commission), first on the prospecting of Pb and Zn in carbonate environments, then the uranium exploration in Belgium. Then Assistant at ULB, Department of Geology I got the degree of Doctor of Sciences (Geology) in 1985. My thesis, devoted to the study of the Devonian carbonate sedimentology of northern France and southern Belgium, comprised a significant portion of field work whose interpretation and synthesis conducted to the establishment of model of carbonate platforms and ramps with reefal constructions. I then worked for Petrofina SA and shared a little more than two years in Angola as Director of the Research Laboratory of this oil company. The lab included 22 people (micropaleontology, sedimentology, petrophysics). My main activity was to interpret facies reservoirs from drillings in the Cretaceous, sometimes in the Tertiary. I carried out many studies for oil companies operating in this country. I returned to the ULB in 1988 as First Assistant and was appointed Professor in 1990. I carried out various missions for mining companies in Belgium and oil companies abroad and continued research, particularly through projects of the Scientific Research National Funds (FNRS). My research still concerns sedimentology, geochemistry and diagenesis of carbonate rocks which leads me to travel many countries in Europe or outside Europe, North Africa, Papua New Guinea and the USA, to conduct field missions. Since the late 90's, I expanded my field of research in addressing the problem of mass extinctions of organisms from the Upper Devonian series across Euramerica (from North America to Poland) and I also specialized in microbiological and geochemical analyses of ancient carbonate series developing a sustained collaboration with biologists of my university. We are at the origin of a paleoecological model based on the presence of iron-bacterial microfossils, which led me to travel many countries in Europe and North Africa. This model accounts for the red pigmentation of many marble and ornamental stones used in the world. This research also has implications on the emergence of Life from the earliest stages of formation of Earth, as well as in the field of exobiology or extraterrestrial life ... More recently I invested in the study from the Precambrian series of Gabon and Congo. These works with colleagues from BRGM (Orléans) are as much about the academic side (consequences of the appearance of oxygen in the Paleoproterozoic and study of Neoproterozoic glaciations) that the potential applications in reservoir rocks and source rocks of oil (in collaboration with oil companies). Finally I recently established a close collaboration with the Royal Institute of Natural Sciences of Belgium to study the susceptibility magnetic signal from various European Paleozoic series. All these works allowed me to gain a thorough understanding of carbonate rocks (petrology, micropaleontology, geobiology, geochemistry, sequence stratigraphy, diagenesis) as well in Precambrian (2.2 Ga and 0.6 Ga), Paleozoic (from Silurian to Carboniferous) and Mesozoic (Jurassic and Cretaceous) rocks. Recently (2010) I have established a collaboration with Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a government program to boost scientific research in this country. My research led me to publish about 180 papers in international and national journals and presented more than 170 conference papers. I am a holder of eight courses at the ULB (5 mandatory and 3 optional), excursions and field stages, I taught at the third cycle in several French universities and led or co-managed a score of 20 Doctoral (PhD) and Post-doctoral theses and has been the promotor of more than 50 Masters theses.
climate-debate

New Study: Warming Trend Since 2013 From Increased Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not CO2

by K. Richard, Dec 26, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The 2013-2022 warming trend and the extreme warmth in 2023 were “not associated with” declining outgoing long-wave radiation induced by rising greenhouse gases. [emphasis, links added]

Instead, a new study published in the journal Science contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR, or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W/m²/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively) explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth’s surface, warming it.)

A rising trend in anthropogenic greenhouse gases was supposed to reduce the Earth’s outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), and a declining OLR was thought to be the driver of modern warming.

Instead, the opposite has occurred. There has been an increasing OLR trend since 2013.

This enhancement of the Earth’s OLR trend actually serves to counteract the ASR-induced warming strongly associated with the aforementioned declining cloud cover albedo.

In other words, the total greenhouse effect impact from rising greenhouse gases has recently been contributing to a reduction in global warming, partially offsetting the warming induced by rising ASR.

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better to know...?

Merry Christmas! And Though We’ve Seen Some Brutal Years, Things Are Really Looking Up For 2025

by  P. Gosselin, Dec 24, 2024 in WUWT

There’s no question that Germans and Europeans are much worse off than they’ve been in a very long time.

This has been due to incompetent, ideological leadership shadowy and global puppeteers. Fortunately their days may soon be numbered, as 2025 offers many rays of hope. 

I’ve actually found myself longing for the days when climate change was one of the biggest issues we supposedly were facing – before Corona.

Since then, things has deteriorated markedly in Germany, causing concerns about climate to fade. Now nobody even cares about it. Germans and Europeans have long since been redirected to real, undeniable threats:

  • economic woes
  • falling living standards
  • inflation
  • energy supply bottlenecks
  • deindustrialization
  • loss of democracy
  • growing restrictions
  • curtailment of freedom of expression
  • heightening war in Ukraine
  • uncontrolled immigration
  • skyrocketing crime rates
  • elevated terror threat
  • state-propaganda media
climate-debate

Science Shock: CO2 is Good for the Planet, Peer-Reviewed Studies Suggest

by C. Morrison, Dec 24, 2024 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat

Dramatic evidence has been published in a number of recent science papers that carbon dioxide levels are already ‘saturated’, meaning little or no further warming is to be expected and rising CO2 levels are all beneficial.

Half of human emissions are being quickly pushed back into the biosphere, the scientists say, causing substantial, famine-busting plant growth, while the rest is entering a ‘saturated’ atmosphere and having a minimal effect on global temperatures. One of the papers accepting the human involvement in rising CO2is published by the CO2 Coalition, which notes: “We like CO2, so should you.”

None of this work will be reported in the mainstream since it disrupts a ‘settled’ climate science narrative tied to the political Net Zero fantasy. But the opinion that humans control the climate thermostat by releasing CO2, leading to runaway temperatures, belongs to a dark period in science when it was captured to promote political aims. However, work continues in sceptical climate circles to understand how a number of gases with warming properties behave in a chaotic, non-linear atmosphere. Two recently-published papers found that doubling CO2 in the atmosphere led to minimal temperature increases. The calculated figures can be considered to be in margin of error territory and on past observational evidence they pose no threat to the climate on Earth. They also destroy the shaky scientific foundation upon which Net Zero rests.

Eight Taiwanese scientists led by Professor Peng-Sheng Wei found that the sensitivity of the climate to a rise in CO2 atmospheric levels from 100 to 400 parts per million (ppm) was “negligibly small” at 0.3°C. The paper is complex and examines heat transfers as a function of longitude, latitude and altitude “as well as diffuse radiation determined by absorption bands based on wavelength, temperature and the concentration or pressure of carbon dioxide vapour”. What the scientists are looking at here is the narrow absorption bands within the infrared (IR) spectrum that allow ‘greenhouse’ gases to trap heat and warm the planet. Many argue that after a certain level the gases ‘saturate’ and lose most of their warming properties. One simple way to understand this is to observe that doubling insulation in a loft will not trap twice as much heat. The saturation hypothesis would appear to explain how CO2 has been 10-15 times higher in the past without runaway temperatures, while the anthropogenic warming opinion does little more than provide scientific cover for a dodgy but fashionable extreme eco scare.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claims a climate sensitivity number based on doubling CO2 levels of around 3°C. But many climate models ramp up mass public hysteria by using ‘pathways’ with much larger and highly improbably estimates. The latter form the basis of numerous ‘scientists say’ stories faithfully reported by unquestioning mainstream media. The Taiwanese scientists found that ground temperature warming of 0.3°C was associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm and there was no additional warming at all as CO2 rose further from 350 ppm to 400 ppm. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 420 ppm.

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climate-debate

A New Study Finds Doubling CO2 Leads To 0.5°C Warming At Most

by K. Richard, Dec 23, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

earth space green

The evidence that rising CO2 concentrations lead to inconsequential warming keeps piling up. [emphasis, links added]

In a new study, seven Viennese researchers provide more evidence the CO2 absorption band is already saturated at today’s concentrations (over 400 ppm).

Rising CO2 levels thus cannot drive significant global warming:

“Data from ground measurements indicate that the downward (backward) radiation of the atmosphere shows indeed full saturation of the IR CO2 bands and does not support noticeable additional Thermal Forcing (TF) by increasing CO2 in the lower atmosphere.”

“…we can expect full saturation already at current concentrations.”

As Table 2 from the study indicates, doubling CO2 from preindustrial levels (280 to 560 ppm) increases global mean infrared absorption by just 1.1% (82.1% vs. 83.2%).

This is an indicator of the decreasing effectiveness of CO2 as a warming agent as its concentration rises.

Indeed, a 400 to 800 ppm increase “shows no measurable increase in the IR absorption for the 15 μ-central peak,” and thus it can lead to just 0.5°C warming at most.

Read more at No Tricks Zone

better to know...?, climate and geology

The Fairy Tale Of The CO2 Paradise Before 1850…A Look At The Real Science

by P. Gosselin, Dec 15, 2024 in NoTricksZone

Was the Earth’s biosphere really in a largely stable CO2 balance before 1850? (Almost) all politicians, scientists from all climate disciplines, the media and international big business are telling us in unison that we are destroying the global climate and that the world is on the brink of extinction. By burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, we are supposedly emitting too much CO2. This gas is blamed to act as a “greenhouse gas” that traps heat in the atmosphere. We supposedly face the threat of runaway global warming if we do not completely stop burning fossil fuels within the next 25 years.

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The IPCC’s CO2 hypothesis is scientifically untenable

The entire climate catastrophe construct of the IPCC and its representatives stands and falls with the assertion that the “greenhouse gas” CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere for a long time and thus endangers the earth’s thermal balance. This is why those responsible are trying to conceal the fact that considerable quantities of CO2 are permanently stored away as lime in the ocean through natural processes – for many millions of years. They are particularly embarrassed by the fact that these mechanisms have been taking place in the ocean for eons and that large quantities of CO2 are stored in rocks. There must therefore also be correspondingly large sources of CO2 replenishment in nature. This means that the IPCC’s entire CO2 cycle model collapses. This is probably the reason why oceanic calcification is not correctly represented in official and authoritative documents such as the IPCC report on “The Physical Science Base” or the Global Carbon Project. Also, Henry’s Law is not even mentioned in either of the publications cited here. This blatant suppression of essential scientifically proven facts is the Achilles heel of the entire green climate catastrophe ideology. In commercial terms, one could also speak of balance fraud. Anyone who has doubts about the IPCC’s point of view should ask for these facts to be thoroughly questioned.

Sources:

better to know...?, climate-debate

Ocean Temperatures and Climate Hysteria: A Lesson in Perspective

by C. Rotter, Dec 20, 2024 in WUWT

For the past two years, headlines, policy statements, and social media feeds have been flooded with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every uptick in the graphs was treated as irrefutable proof of humanity’s march toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offered little room for nuance, and as usual, the loudest voices declared the end was nigh. But a recent tweet from Javier Viños, supported by a graph of global sea surface temperatures (SST), reminds us how quickly climate “emergencies” dissolve when confronted with even the faintest hint of natural variability.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Study Debunks Media’s Iceberg Alarmism: Antarctic Calving ‘Statistically Unexceptional’

by A. Watt,  Dec 20, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

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The climate chicken littles of the media blamed it on climate change then, but today, it looks like an Emily Litella moment has just occurred, as a new peer-reviewed scientific study says it wasn’t anything abnormal, nor should we worry about it.

The new study published in Geophysical Research Letters tosses ice-cold water on those overhyped media claims.

In the study, MacKie et al. (2024) analyzed 47 years of observational satellite data from Antarcticaand found that there has been no trend in annual Antarctic maximum calving size between 1976 and 2023.

The key findings of the study are:

  • There has been no detectable upward trend in the annual maximum iceberg area in Antarctica since 1973, based on satellite measurements.
  • The break-off of Iceberg A-68 from the Larsen C Ice Shelf was not statistically notable.
  • Calving events several times larger than anything observed in the modern record could occur, and still, it would not necessarily be due to climate change.

To be clear, the calving of the A-68 iceberg was “statistically unexceptional” in the historical satellite record. Let that sink in. The authors write:

This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A-68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.

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climate-debate

Another Climate Sensitivity Study Finds Doubling CO2 Leads To 0.5°C Warming At Most

by K. Richard, Dec 20, 2024 in NoTricksZone

The evidence that rising CO2 concentrations lead to inconsequential warming keeps piling up.

In a new study, seven Viennese researchers provide more evidence the CO2 absorption band is already saturated at today’s concentrations (over 400 ppm). Rising CO2 levels thus cannot drive significant global warming.

“Data from ground measurements indicate that the downward (backward) radiation of the atmosphere shows indeed full saturation of the IR CO2 bands and does not support noticeable additional Thermal Forcing (TF) by increasing CO2 in the lower atmosphere.”

“…we can expect full saturation already at current concentrations.”

As Table 2 from the study indicates, doubling CO2 from pre-industrial levels (280 to 560 ppm) increases global mean infrared absorption by just 1.1% (82.1% vs. 83.2%). This is an indicator of the decreasing effectiveness of CO2 as a warming agent as its concentration rises.

Indeed, a 400 to 800 ppm increase “shows no measurable increase in the IR absorption for the 15 μ-central peak,” and thus it can lead to just 0.5°C warming at most.

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better to know...?, climate and geology

Rising Seas? No, 3 Dozen S. Florida High-Rises Sinking From Land Subsidence

by Geology, New Science, Dec 18, 2024 in ClimatChangeDispatch

miami beach high rises

Top photo by Ryan Parker on Unsplash

Almost three dozen high-rise condos and luxury hotels along the beach in South Florida are sinking or settling in unexpected ways, in some cases because of nearby construction, according to a new study. [emphasis, links added]

The 35 buildings surveyed along an almost 12-mile (19-kilometer) stretch from Miami Beach to Sunny Isles Beach have sunk or settled by 0.8 to 3.1 inches (2 to 8 cm).

About half of the buildings are less than a decade old, according to scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

The study was published on Friday.

“The discovery of the extent of subsidence hotspots along the South Florida coastline was unexpected,” Farzaneh Aziz Zanjani, the lead author, said in a statement. “The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and a deeper understanding of the long-term implications for these structures.”

It’s not uncommon for buildings to sink a little during and soon after construction, but the scientists called their discovery surprising because some of the changes took place several years later.

Limestone under the South Florida beach is interspersed with layers of sand, which can shift under the weight of high-rises and as a result of vibrations from foundation construction.Tidal flows also play a role.

The study used satellite images to capture the changes, with settling most noticeable in buildings in Sunny Isles Beach.

The scientists said preliminary data also suggests sinking or settling further north, along the beaches of Broward and Palm Beach counties.

The stretch of South Florida communities surveyed included Surfside, where the Champlain Towers South building collapsed in June 2021, killing 98 people.

However, that collapse is thought to have been caused by reinforced concrete that deteriorated due to poor maintenance and flawed design.

better to know...?, climate-debate, energy and fields

IEA Report: Global Coal Demand To Hit Record High In 2024, Defying Predictions Of Decline

by  R. Bryce , Dec 18, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The International Energy Agency has been consistent — and consistently wrong — about global coal demand. [emphasis, links added]

In 2015, the Paris-based agency declared, “The golden age of coal in China seems to be over.” That year, it predicted global coal demand would fall to 5.5 billion tons by 2020.

In its 2017 World Energy Outlook, the IEA said, “China remains a towering presence in coal markets, but our projections suggest that coal use peaked in 2013 and is set to decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040.”

In 2020, the agency said, “Looking ahead to 2025, coal demand is expected to flatten.” It continued,

“Unless there are unforeseen developments that significantly boost coal demand in emerging Asian economies and China, it is likely that global coal demand peaked in 2013 at just over 8B tons.”

Wrong. Wrong. And wrong again.

Today, the IEA released its Coal 2024 report, which says global coal use will grow by another 1% this year to an all-time high of 8.77 billion tons.

The agency also reports that:

“coal demand, production, coal-fired generation, and international coal trade will surpass records reached in 2023 to set new all-time records.”

And here’s the key line:

“The power sector has been the main driver of coal demand growth, with electricity generation from coal set to reach an all-time high of 10,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024.”

Why does this matter? Electricity is the form of energy we crave more than any other. Electricity drives modernity and economic growth.

Primary trade flows in the thermal coal market in 2022 and 2023. Note that most of the arrows point to China and India. Source IEA Coal 2024.
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climate-debate

‘No Measurable Effect’: Study Finds ‘Net Zero’ Emissions Would Have Negligible Climate Impact

by K. Richard, Dec 16, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

net zero
Cost-benefit analyses affirm it would be better to abandon Net Zero policy initiatives and instead “do nothing” about greenhouse gas emissions. [emphasis, links added]

New research finds that CO2’s largest possible climate impact is “negligible.”

The cumulative expected temperature change in doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 PPM is only 0.81°C at most, and this is “certainly not cause for alarm or for declaring a climate emergency”.

As Figure 1 from the paper shows [pictured below], the temperature effects of increasing CO2 are strongest when concentrations hover below 100 PPM.

After that, the CO2 impact collapses logarithmically to less than 0.05°C even as concentrations rise to 900 PPM.

Using heat-transfer calculations, it is estimated that even if governments across the world were to actually achieve all of their proposed Net Zero policy goals, it would only elicit a 0.28°C reduction in global temperature.

In other words, it would have “no measurable effect” on climate.

The tens of trillions in costs to achieve an inconsequential global temperature reduction would be much better spent on policies that would improve the economic, health, and educational conditions of those living in poverty.

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climate-debate

Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS

by A. May, Dec 17, 2024 in WUWT

The IPCC and the climate “consensus” believe that essentially all warming since 1750 is due to man’s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases as shown in figure 1 here or in (IPCC, 2021, p. 961). This has led to a 45-year search for the value of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to the doubling of CO2 (“ECS” in °C per 2xCO2). Yet, after spending 45 years trying to calculate the sensitivity of climate to man-made greenhouse gases, the “consensus” has been unable to narrow the uncertainty in their estimates and, if anything, the climate model uncertainty is now larger than in earlier reports(IPCC, 2021, p. 927). It is now clear, at least to me, that modern climate models make many critical assumptions that are poorly supported and sometimes conflict with observations. This is an attempt to explain some of these problems and how they developed over time. It is long past time for the “consensus” to stop ignoring the obvious weaknesses in their 60-year old conceptual model of climate.

The Early Models

Syukuro Manabe built the first general circulation climate model with several colleagues in the 1960s (Manabe & Bryan, 1969) and (Manabe & Wetherald, 1967). He started with a one-dimensional radiative equilibrium model of horizontally averaged temperature but realized that the troposphere was not in radiative equilibrium because of convection. The lower atmosphere is nearly opaque to most surface emitted infrared radiation or Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) because of greenhouse gases. As a result, Earth’s surface is not cooled much by emitting radiation but instead mostly by the evaporation of surface water that carries surface heat into the atmosphere as latent heat inside water vapor. Water vapor is less dense than dry air, so it rises. Once the water vapor is high enough, it cools as the surrounding air pressure drops allowing air parcels to expand, causing the water vapor to condense which releases its latent heat. If this is done at a high enough altitude, some of the latent heat can make it to space as radiation or make it to surrounding greenhouse gas molecules higher in the atmosphere. The rest of the released heat simply warms the neighborhood. This process is called the “moist adiabat.”

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climate-debate

No, BBC, Atlantic Hurricane Season Did Not Break Records

by P. Homewood, Dec 1, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is coming to an end and it has been an active one overall.

There have been 18 named tropical storms, with 11 of those reaching hurricane strength and five becoming major hurricanes – category three and above.

An average season would bring 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Some records have been equalled or broken but the active weather was not spread evenly across the season. In fact the middle of the season, normally the peak, was very quiet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cp87g4p73kxo

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Despite claims of “records broken”, the BBC makes no mention of what these might be!

Unsurprising, because no records were broken, unless you count Beryl which was claimed to be the earliest Cat 5 on record, which has no significance whatsoever.

Instead, although above average, the number of hurricanes and major ones were not exceptional at all.

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climate-debate

Climate Change over the past 4000 Years

by A. May, Dec4, 2024 in WUWT

I last wrote about Climate Change and Civilization for the past 4,000 Years in 2016. Since then, a lot has changed, and I’ve learned a lot more about the subject. First, we learned that various air and sea temperature proxies, such as ice core δ18O or tree rings, are all different. For a discussion of some temperature proxies used and the problems with them, see here. Proxies have different accuracies, they are often sensitive to the temperature of different seasons, and they have different temporal resolutions. Thus, as pointed out by Soon and Baliunas in 2003, they are all local and “cannot be combined into a hemispheric or global quantitative composite.”

The global average surface temperature (GAST) reconstruction relied upon in the IPCC AR6 report was by Kaufman, et al. The authors admit that the average spacing of each temperature (the temporal resolution) is 164 years. Thus, to compare the entire global instrumental temperature record to the proxies in a valid way, one must average all the daily readings since 1860 into one point. That is, the rate of warming since 1860 is irrelevant, the proxy record cannot see a 164-year increase. The problem of comparing daily modern instrumental temperature records to proxies is discussed by Renee Hannon here.

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climate-debate

Research: “103 Of 302 Weather Stations In United Kingdom Do Not Exist At All!

by P. Homewood, Nov 27, 2024 in NoTricksZone

Paul Homewood wrote about poorly sited weather stations in Great Britain, thus making readings and climate data rather questionable.

The European Institute for Climate And Energy (EIKE) now reports of Great Britain’s phantom weather station network: one third of all its stations don’t actually exist. 

By Maurice Forgeng. Original article: Epoch Times here.

“All climate forecasts are based on more or less long-term documented measurements from weather stations. They can be used to determine past developments as well as possible trends in future local temperatures. Meteorologists also compile national and international trends based on the data from many measuring stations.”

“But what if much of this basic data is incorrect – or even made up? This is what journalist Ray Sanders claims about the measured values in the UK. According to his research, 103 of the 302 weather measuring stations in the United Kingdom do not exist at all. Nevertheless, they provide official data that is available to everyone on the website of the national weather authority.”

Sanders investigated the weather stations listed by the British Meteorological Service and found discrepancies in the data. For example, the Dungeness weather station supposedly on a nuclear power plant doesn’t exist. In fact, four out of eight stations in Kent do not exist  Also, coordinates for many stations are inaccurate.

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Full report at EIKE

climate-debate

Dear Climate Alarmists, Welcome to Your Worst Nightmare

by A. Watts, Nov 27, 2024 in WUWT

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Americans are finally starting to understand the truth about climate change while simultaneously becoming aware that climate alarmists have ulterior motives at hand, many of which are in direct opposition to the fundamental best interests of everyday Americans.

Thanks to courageous truth seekers like my colleagues at The Heartland Institute and many allied organizations, Americans are more able than ever to receive accurate information dispelling common myths and lies pushed by climate alarmists. As anyone can read at ClimateRealism.com, the seas are not rising and weather events like hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, etc. are not becoming more frequent nor deadlier. In fact, in many cases, the exact opposite is occurring.

Another huge factor that helped Americans realize the dubiousness of the climate alarmist narrative is that their solutions make no sense, do not address the so-called problems, and all too often end with less liberty and more government. Apparently, Americans are beginning to understand that climate justice, for instance, is mostly about wealth redistribution and has little to do with a cleaner environment.

A few weeks ago, Americans went to the polls and clearly rejected the climate alarmist nonsense that has been hoisted upon the nation over the past four years. Without a doubt, the Biden-Harris administration has been the most zealous when it comes to climate alarmism. From nixing the Keystone XL Pipeline to mandating electric vehicles to deciding the type of appliances Americans can purchase, the Biden-Harris administration has been all-in on climate alarmism.

But this is not what the American people want. To be clear, nearly all Americans want to protect the environment and desire clean air and water.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Unexplained heat-wave ‘hotspots’ are popping up across the globe

by Columbia Climate School, Nov 26, 2024 in ScienceDaily

Summary :  A striking new phenomenon is emerging: distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain. A new study provides the first worldwide map of such regions, which show up on every continent except Antarctica like giant, angry skin blotches.

Earth’s hottest recorded year was 2023, at 2.12 degrees F above the 20th-century average. This surpassed the previous record set in 2016. So far, the 10 hottest yearly average temperatures have occurred in the past decade. And, with the hottest summer and hottest single day, 2024 is on track to set yet another record.

All this may not be breaking news to everyone, but amid this upward march in average temperatures, a striking new phenomenon is emerging: distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain. A new study provides the first worldwide map of such regions, which show up on every continent except Antarctica like giant, angry skin blotches. In recent years these heat waves have killed tens of thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and sparked devastating wildfires.

“The large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks,” says the study.

“This is about extreme trends that are the outcome of physical interactions we might not completely understand,” said lead author Kai Kornhuber, an adjunct scientist at the Columbia Climate School’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “These regions become temporary hothouses.” Kornhuber is also a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.

The study was just published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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Climbing overall temperatures make heat waves more likely in many cases, but the causes of the extreme heat outbreaks are not entirely clear. In Europe and Russia, an earlier study led by Kornhuber blamed heat waves and droughts on wobbles in the jet stream, a fast-moving river of air that continuously circles the northern hemisphere.

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Also here

climate-debate, Cooling

Greenland Surface Temperatures Fall for 20 Years in Fresh Blow to Climate Alarm Narrative

by C. Morrison, Nov 27, 2024 in WUWT

Further evidence that surface temperatures across Greenland have been cooling for around 20 years has emerged with the recent publication of findings from a group of Thai scientists and mathematicians. Processing 31,464 satellite recording from 2000-2019 over the entire area, they found that the average temperature fell by 0.11°C. This is said to indicate a “non-significant change in LST [land surface temperature]”. The latest evidence of actual cooling over a significant area of the Arctic will not be news in scientific circles since it backs up previous findings of recent temperature falls. But the information is of course kept out of the mainstream since it casts doubt on the key Net Zero scare about soaring sea levels caused by the catastrophic melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

There are some crumbs of comfort for alarmists since the Thai authors found that the ice-free sub-regions of Greenland are warmer than the ice-covered sub regions. But perhaps not – the authors attributed it to “population density”. Urban heat yet again corrupting the temperature data, even in Greenland. The illustration below charts the temperature record for all areas of Greenland.

The World Economic Forum recently reported on a study that predicted a “total collapse” of the Greenland ice sheet within a few months. This suggestion is only slightly more ludicrous than the scares routinely published to induce mass psychosis in populations with the aim of promoting a collectivist command-and-control Net Zero solution. The recent farce around the COP in Baku showed the conspiracy operating in plain sight. Stop the developing word developing with hydrocarbons, then invent a number of fake scares such as island states disappearing beneath the waves. Everyone knows this and most of the other scares are false as scientists have shown on numerous occasions, but no matter. Invent some ridiculous composite figure – say $250 billion a year, or $1.3 billion by 2035 – then pretend your taxpayers can be rinsed even though the only country that could conceivably afford it is leaving the party in January.

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climate-debate

COP 29 diplomacy delivers perfectly vague promises a decade away

by  D. Wojick, Nov 25, 2024 in WUWT

In Cop 29’s “Finance agreement” diplomacy is truly the art of agreeing to nothing. There is no agreement of substance here because there is no substance to this agreement. Each side gets its number someday and that is all there is to it.

Let’s look at the actual text to see the nothing. But first recall what was supposed to happen. The Paris Agreement committed the developed country members to providing $100 billion a year to the developing countries through 2025. COP 29 was simply supposed to revise that annual payment up beginning in 2026. That did not happen, not even close.

The fiasco started when the developing countries demanded huge impossibly sums centered on $1.3 trillion. That set in motion a series of side steps leading to the present agreement which is very different from the intended goal.

To begin with the $1.3 trillion annual payment is there but it is “by 2035” so ten years from now not in 2026. I can see delaying it until a few years after Trump leaves office but these folks are wedded to their five year plans.

Moreover this money need not come from the developed countries and certainly not from their governments. First it is to come “from all public and private sources.” Second the eligible sources have been expanded to include all the developing countries as well as the developed ones.

These two provisions have fundamentally changed the concept of climate finance. It used to just include mostly government money going from developed to developing countries. Now it sounds like any climate related investment or contribution that winds up in a developing country counts.

Working this out will be supremely challenging. For example if China builds itself an offshore wind array, and they are building plenty, is that climate finance? How about if they build it in Indonesia?

Oh and it looks like coal fired power plants count too. In early drafts of the agreement counting coal plants was ruled out because people were doing that in the name of adaptation. Having electricity certainly helps when extreme weather hits. But that prohibition does not appear in the final agreement so the practice looks allowable.

Then there is the other big number, the $300 billion a year. This is widely assumed to replace the $100 billion a year mandated by the Paris Agreement through 2025. For example CBS has a headline that yells “deal reached at UN’s COP29 climate talks for $300 billion a year (up from $100 billion).”

This is incorrect as here too the new agreement says the goal is “by 2035.” Nor is all (or any) of this distant sum necessarily coming from developed countries as the yearly $100 billion had to. The new agreement just says “with developed country Parties taking the lead.” (Parties means to the Paris Agreement.)

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #621

by K. Haapala,  WUWT, Nov 25, 2024

Scope: This Week begins with Richard Lindzen’s discussion on recent political movements that falsely claim to be based on science. Vijay Jayaraj discusses a conference of important nations that the legacy media missed, or misrepresented. Delancyplace.com discusses a few issues in Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Roy Spencer and John Christy discuss corrections needed to the measurements by satellites when the satellites drift too far from the planned orbit. Owen Klinsky alerts the US to the Winter Reliability Assessment by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Roger Caiazza continues to express concern over New York’s future reliance on Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR), that appears imaginary. A brief discussion on a Bomb Cyclone concludes this Week.

Rumors State: Some of the most misleading arguments for drastic action to “combat climate change” include phrases such as “The Science says.” Science says nothing; in physical science it is the physical evidence that reveals the validity of a claim. Writing in the American Mind, MIT Professor emeritus of Atmospheric Science Richard Lindzen reveals “How a political movement invented its own scientific basis.” He begins with:

“Modern political movements have frequently laid claim to being based in science, from immigration restriction and eugenics (in the U.S. after WWI), to antisemitism and race ideology (in Hitler’s Germany), to Communism and Lysenkoism (under Stalin). Each of these falsely invoked a scientific consensus that convinced highly educated citizens, who were nonetheless ignorant of science, to set aside the anxieties associated with their ignorance. Since all scientists supposedly agreed, there was no need for them to understand the science.

Of course, this version of “the science” is the opposite of science itself. Science is a mode of inquiry rather than a source of authority. However, the success that science achieves has earned it a measure of authority in the public’s mind. This is what politicians frequently envy and exploit.

The climate panic fits into this same pattern and, as in all the preceding cases, science is in fact irrelevant. At best, it is a distraction which has led many of us to focus on the numerous misrepresentations of science entailed in what was purely a political movement.”

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climate-debate, energy and fields

Germany Urged To Return To Nuclear As Wind And Solar Fail, Prices Soar

by P. Gosselin, Nov 25, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

german nuclear plant
Germany phased out its entire fleet of nuclear reactors over the past years and hoped to rely on renewable energies, claiming they were cheaper and cleaner. [emphasis, links added]

However, the transition has not gone smoothly as grid revamping has not kept up and prices for wind and solar power have made German electricity among the most expensive worldwide.

At the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has warned that: “Germany can no longer turn its back on nuclear power and that a reorientation of energy policy is necessary. The government must reopen the debate on nuclear power.”

“Countries that have nuclear energy want more of it. And many that don’t have any want it,”  said Grossi.

“The timing of his comments is no coincidence. Germany’s economy is suffering from energy problems while the government is consumed with internal disputes,” comments Blackout News.

“The political focus has recently been on the disputes within the coalition government, while the electricity market has continued to show new weaknesses.”

Blackout News describes how the prices of electricity “exploded” in early November during a period of calm winds and no sunshine.

This forced Germany to fall back on gas and coal (energy sources that the government is currently working to phase out as well).

“Fossil fuels supplied 71% of Germany’s electricity at the beginning of November – a figure that has not been reached for over a decade.”

Read the entire article here (German).

climate-debate

COP29 Leaves Poor Countries Fuming

by P. Homewood, Nov 24, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

So the whole charade trundles on for another year:

…

 

But it is all academic anyway, as they won’t even get that much if the US pulls out, as expected to.

The UK’s share of $300bn, if averaged out by GDP, would be about $18 billion, or $36 billion if Trump pulls out, which is nearly three times the current Overseas Aid budget.

In all likelihood, most of the money will be provided, as now, by repayable loans and private sector investment. Neither of these are of much use for the Third World, as they cannot afford the repayments or the profits businesses will look to extract.

Needless to say, developing countries will not be obliged to cut emissions in return for their Danegeld. Back in the heady days of 2009, the naive Barack Obama believed that throwing dollar bills around would magically lower the world’s emissions. We now know the reality!

Nor is there any obligation for China, India or Middle Eastern oil states, all still classified as “developing”, to cough up a penny.

And more fundamentally, COP29 never even addressed the issue of emission reductions. No new pledges were made, no NDCs updated. No even a timetable for discussing them in future.

Perhaps the most ludicrous part of the Conference was the first day agreement on carbon markets.

As the BBC explain, a poor country with lots of trees can sell carbon credits to richer nations, so they can continue to burn fossil fuels.

Apparently carbon emissions are alright, as long as you pay a penance!

better to know...?, climate-debate

The Climate Scaremongers: BBC Admits It Lied About Vanishing Polar Bears

by P. Homewood, Nov 22, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch

polar bear mother and cub
In August, the BBC published a news item about a Canadian worker killed by two polar bears. [emphasis, links added]

The article claimed: ‘There are about 17,000 polar bears living in the country – making up around two-thirds of the global population of the species, according to the Canadian government.

‘The species is in decline, and scientists attribute it to the loss of sea ice caused by global warming – leading to shrinking of their hunting and breeding grounds.’

No doubt in BBC World, they actually believe that polar bears are dying out. It is, after all, an article of faith for the global warming cult.

However, far from declining, the world’s population of polar bears has tripled since the 1960s, thanks to the ban on hunting in 1973.

Source

The BBC has now formally upheld the complaint I submitted at the time, and has posted this on their Complaints Page:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

They’re Trying to Silence Us: The G20’s War on Climate Skepticism

by C. Rotter, Nov 23, 2024 in WUWT

n yet another chilling example of Orwellian overreach, the G20 Summit in Brazil has unveiled a new international effort to stifle dissent under the banner of “fighting disinformation.” This latest scheme, dubbed the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change, is spearheaded by the United Nations and UNESCO. With a financial war chest provided by nations like the United Kingdom, France, and Sweden, this initiative isn’t about “truth” or “science”—it’s about control.

Bringing together countries, international organizations, and stakeholders worldwide, it aims to promote and defend information integrity on climate change, address disinformation, and enhance climate change awareness and action. It includes a global fund which will finance research into disinformation on climate change and initiatives to promote information integrity.

https://www.unesco.org/en/information-integrity-climate-change

Let’s call this what it is: a blatant attempt to silence anyone questioning the so-called climate crisis narrative. Under the guise of combating “misinformation,” these global bureaucracies aim to crush free thought and erase critical voices from the public square. This isn’t just an attack on skeptics—it’s an assault on open discourse itself.

The Initiative: A Wolf in Green Clothing

According to their public statements, the Initiative seeks to fund nonprofits for “research” and “public awareness campaigns.” They’re also creating what they call an “international research network” to identify and suppress so-called disinformation. In other words, they’re building an apparatus to label opposing viewpoints as dangerous lies and to justify censoring them into oblivion.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, with his characteristic paternalism, declared disinformation a threat to climate action and even democracy itself. The not-so-subtle subtext? If you dare question their dogma, you’re the problem.

The History: Silencing Skeptics Since Day One

This isn’t the first time climate skeptics have been targeted. As far back as 2010, Google began manipulating search results to demote skeptical voices. A French study highlighted how skeptics dominated online search rankings at the time, leading to a concerted effort to bury their views beneath mountains of alarmist propaganda. Blogs like Pensée Unique and works by Claude Allègre drew enough attention to provoke the ire of the establishment.

Now, thanks to collusion between Big Tech, governments, and nonprofits, the “censorship industrial complex” has become a powerful and insidious force. Groups like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) in the United States, along with private entities like NewsGuard, routinely conspire to flag, suppress, and delegitimize dissenting voices.

We’ve seen this play out before. The Twitter Files laid bare the extent of this collusion, revealing how social media platforms partnered with government agencies to suppress stories and deplatform users who strayed from the approved narrative. This is not about protecting the public from falsehoods—it’s about eliminating debate.

Why the Fear?

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climate-debate

COP 29: The big UN money grab

by C. Rucker, Nov 23, 2024 in WUWT

The sums of money being demanded at the UN climate conference in Azerbaijan are staggering.

The UN estimates that the world currently spend $3 trillion per year on climate and wants to dedicate $3.5 trillion to energy transition per year by 2050.  This would skyrocket total annual global climate spending to $5 trillion.

A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

They are pushing for something they call the “new collective quantified goal” at COP 29 in Baku.  This mainly means a fortune in climate redistribution from the developed to the developing world.

Delegates are all too aware that this spending largess in no way squares with President-elect Trump’s “America first” agenda, but they are hoping to wait him out as they did once before.

One surprising positive development, is that in the process of demanding redistribution, developing nations have woken up to one of the key absurdities of the UN climate regime.  Nations such as China and India are given a pass on emissions reductions and paying out funds.  This, despite the fact that China is the world’s number one emitter of greenhouse gases and boasts the second largest economy, while India’s economy is all the way up at number five.

This is due to something the UN calls “common, but differentiated responsibilities,” which has been baked into the climate regime going all the way back to 1997’s Kyoto Protocol.  China, meanwhile, holds $8.16 trillion of U.S. debt.

Wherever climate policy goes next, China should equally bear the pain and shoulder the responsibility they advocate for us.

President Obama shoveled $1 billion over to the UN’s Green Climate Fund shortly before President Trump began his first term.  This included $500 million transferred just three days before inauguration day.

Will the Biden Administration try to top that?

The last time President Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement it took four years.  Under the terms of the Agreement, this time he can do it in one.

Let’s hope President Trump resurrects climate and energy reality for the U.S. and the world before much more damage is done.