Archives par mot-clé : Extreme Weather

Climate Activists Frustrated by IPCC’s Refusal to Link Extreme Weather with Carbon Emissions

by C. Morrison, Oct 10, 2024 in WUWT


Last June, the state-reliant BBC reported that human-caused climate change had made U.S. and Mexico heatwaves “35 times more likely”. Nothing out of the ordinary here in mainstream media with everyone from climate comedy turn ‘Jim’ Dale to UN chief Antonio ‘Boiling’ Guterres making these types of bizarre attributions. But for those who closely follow climate science and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “such headlines can be difficult to make sense of”, observes the distinguished science writer Roger Pielke. In a hard-hitting attack on the pseudo-scientific industry of weather attribution, he states: “neither the IPCC nor the underlying scientific literature comes anywhere close to making such strong and certain claims of attribution”.

Pielke argues that the extreme position of attributing individual bad weather events is “roughly aligned” with the far Left. “Climate science is not, or at least should not serve as a proxy for political tribes,” he cautions. But of course it is. The Net Zero fantasy is a collectivist national and supra-national agenda that increasingly relies on demonising bad weather. With global temperatures rising at most only 0.1°C a decade, laughter can only be general and side-splitting when IPCC boss Jim Skea claims that British summers will be 6°C hotter in less than 50 years. Two extended temperature pauses since 2000 have not helped the cause of global boiling. In addition there are increasing doubts about the reliability of temperature recordings by many meteorological organisations that seem unable to properly account for massive urban heat corruptions.

Record Temperature In China Not All It Seems

by P. Homewood, Jul 18, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


BEIJING, July 17 (Reuters) – A remote township in China’s arid northwest endured temperatures of more than 52 Celsius (126 Fahrenheit) on Sunday, state media reported, setting a record for a country that was battling minus 50C weather just six months ago.

Temperatures at Sanbao township in Xinjiang’s Turpan Depression soared as high as 52.2C on Sunday, state-run Xinjiang Daily reported on Monday, with the record heat expected to persist at least another five days.

The Sunday temperature broke a previous record of 50.3C, measured in 2015 near Ayding in the depression, a vast basin of sand dunes and dried-up lakes more than 150 m (492 ft) below sea level.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-logs-522-celsius-extreme-weather-rewrites-records-2023-07-17/

I can’t see the heatwave in Beijing particularly affecting that family crossing the road! Looks like they’re having a nice day out.

But back to Sanbao, which sits in the Turpan Depression that is as much as 150m below sea level. According to Wikipedia, the Turpan has a harsh desert climate, and is counted as one of the Furnaces of China. It is believed to be the second or third deepest depression on Earth. it is also the hottest and driest area in China during the summer.

An Extreme(ly Nice) Summer

by P. Homewood, Nov 18, 2022 in Not aLotofPeopleKnowThat


I see the BBC/Met Office are up to their extreme weather scam again! (Timed to coincide with COP27 of course):

 

 

To pretend that winter storms are an example of Britain’s weather becoming more extreme is utterly dishonest, as the Met Office’s State of the Climate 2021 clearly showed that wind storms have grown less frequent and intense over the years since peaking in the 1990s.

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/about/state-of-climate

DEBUNKED: Europe’s claimed ‘worst drought in 500 years’

by P. Homewood,  Aug 20, 2022  , in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Roger Pielke Jr debunks Europe’s “Worst Drought in 500 Years Claim”:

 

Conclusion

In Western and Central Europe — basically Atlantic France all the way to Moscow, north of the Mediterranean region and south of the North Sea region — the IPCC and the underlying peer reviewed research on which it assesses has concluded that drought has not increased and, logically, that increased drought cannot be attributed to human-caused climate change. The only exception here is that the IPCC has medium confidence in an increasing trend of soil moisture deficits in some subregions, however the IPCC has low confidence that this trend can be attributed to human-caused climate change. Looking to future, at temperature changes of 2C and more, at present the IPCC does not expect the current state of scientific understandings to change. But stay tuned — that’s why we do science.

The full post is here.

See also : DEBUNKED: Europe’s claimed ‘worst drought in 500 years’ – Peer-reviewed studies, data & IPCC reveal ‘drought has not increased’ & ‘cannot be attributed to human-caused climate change’

Little evidence of changes in extreme weather trends

by P. Homewood, July 27, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


New IPCC attribution statistics are distorting observational evidence

London, 27 July – A new paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation finds that the IPCC’s recent shift in methodology has led to misleading claims about changes in weather extremes.

The review, from physicist Dr Ralph Alexander, finds that IPCC claims that many of these weather extremes are increasing significantly are largely unsupported by observational evidence.

Ralph Alexander: Extreme Weather: The IPCC’s Changing Tune (pdf)

According to Dr Alexander:
“On almost every kind of extreme weather, with the possible exemption of heatwaves, the evidence for significant changes is scant. But the latest IPCC report has introduced novel ‘attribution’ statistics and now insists that things are getting worse. It’s yet another case of scientists trying to scare the public into compliance.”

Dr Alexander’s paper looks at:
– droughts
– floods
– hurricanes
– tornadoes
– wildfires
– hot and cold extremes
– coral bleaching.

He concludes that:
“The mistaken belief that weather extremes are worsening because of climate change is more a perception, fostered by media coverage, than reality. The IPCC’s new statistical method is playing an unworthy part in bringing this sorry state of affairs to pass.”

GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review this paper, and to submit a response to be published as an appendix to it. No reply was received.

BBC Exaggerate Drought Claims

by P. Homewood, July 27, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


To compare this year with 1976 is really quite mendacious, as the latter was much, much drier. And as the BBC’s own chart shows, there have been eight other years since then with similar rainfall levels to this year. Indeed, in England, as opposed to England & Wales, both 1996 and 2010 had drier starts to the year).

In other words, this year is not an exceptional event, merely something you expect to see every few years or so.

And if you go back through the full Met Office record to 1836, we can see again that there is nothing at all unusual about this year.( Indeed, all of the really dry years occurred in 1976 and before:

 

See also : Driest Start Since 1976? No, 2010 Was Drier

Extremest Weather 2020

by Ralph Alexander, April 2021 in GWPF


Contents

About the author iii Executive summary v 1. Introduction 1 2. Natural disaster analysis 2 3. Heatwave 6 4. Cold extremes 12 5. Drought 14 6. Precipitation and floods 16 7. Hurricanes 19 8. Tornadoes 23 9. Wildfires 26 10. Conclusions 31 Notes 33 Review process 38 About the Global Warming Policy Foundation 38

About the author

Retired physicist Dr. Ralph B. Alexander is the author of Global Warming False Alarm and Science Un- der Attack: The Age of Unreason. With a PhD in physics from the University of Oxford, he is also the author of numerous scientific papers and reports on complex technical issues. His thesis research in the interdisciplinary area of ion-solid interactions reflected his interest in a wide range of scien- tific topics.

Dr Alexander has been a researcher at major laboratories in Europe and Australia, a professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, the co-founder of an entrepreneurial materials company, and a market analyst in environmentally friendly materials for a small consulting firm.

ARGENTINA HOLDS 8C TO 16C BELOW AVERAGE AS 2 FEET OF SNOW BURIES USHUAIA PROVINCE

by Cap Allon, Oct 4, 2020 in Electroverse


The out-of-season cold and snow currently blasting BOTH HEMISPHERES is intensifying: North America, western/northern Europe, central/eastern Asia, and practically ALL of Australia have now been joined by Argentina.

The South American nation of Argentina measures 2,175 miles long and lies between 21°S and 55°S. Despite its impressive latitude spanning length, the country has been completely engulfed by a powerful Antarctic blast.

Looking at the latest GFS run (shown below), Argentina is set to suffer temperature departures as much as 16C below the seasonal average on Sunday, Oct 4:

IPCC and Sceptics Agree: Climate Change Is Not Causing Extreme Weather

by H.S. Sterling Burnett, June 25, 2020 in GWPF


A new Global Warming Policy Foundation report from retired Oxford physicist Ralph Alexander supports the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s conclusion there is limited scientific evidence linking human caused climate change to increases in extreme weather.

Alexander’s conclusions are also confirmed by recent documents produced by Heartland Senior Fellow Anthony Watts on the website “Climate at a Glance.”

Alexander’s paper begins by remarking, “[t]he purported link between extreme weather and global warming has captured the public imagination and attention of the mainstream media far more than any of the other claims made by the narrative of human-caused climate change.”

Weather Extremes? Are they caused by global warming?

by Ralph Alexander, June 4, 2020 in CO2Colation


Critical Review Confirms IPCC Assessment On Extreme Weather: “No sign that extreme weather events are getting worse”

The paper, by physicist Dr Ralph Alexander, looks at trends in hot and cold weather extremes, floods and droughts, hurricanes and wildfires and finds only a minor increase in cold weather extremes.

According to Dr Alexander, weather extremes is one area where the IPCC has been reasonably empirical and scientific in recent years.

As he explains:

The IPCC stands out, among those who believe that global warming is primarily due to human activity, as a voice of restraint on the issue of extreme weather. My review is in broad agreement with their position: there is little sign things are getting worse.”

In particular, Dr Alexander points to the underreported global reductions in floods, wildfires and hurricanes, but he cautions that many of the changes are likely to be cyclical.

The key driver for many weather extremes is natural ocean cycles like El Nino and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Eventually these cycles will turn, and we should be ready. But we shouldn’t be under any illusion that we can prevent extreme weather by changing our lifestyles”.

Weather Extremes: Are They Caused By Global Warming? (pdf)

New Analysis Confirms Extreme Weather Not Getting Worse

by B. Peiser, June 4, 2020 in ClimateChangeDispatch


A new review of the scientific literature on extreme weather events published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) confirms what IPCC assessment reports have concluded: There is little evidence of any significant changes in most indices.

The paper, by physicist Dr. Ralph Alexander, looks at trends in hot and cold weather extremes, floods and droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires and finds only a minor increase in cold weather extremes.

RUSSIA BREAKS MORE ALL-TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS, INCLUDING ONE FROM 1893

by Cap Allon, July 19, 2019 in Electroverse


On the back of Russia’s horde of new record low temperatures set on July 12, a bucket-load more were set over the following few days, busting records that had previously stood for well over 100 years.

The mercury across the majority of Europe has remained well-below average during the month of July as a string of Arctic blasts continue to delay the start of the continent’s summer. Large regions are seeing temperature departures of up to 20C below average, sending all-time cold records tumbling.

 …

And now Russia has 7 more daily records to add to the ever-expanding list (data courtesy of www.hmn.ru):

  • Sortavala recorded 3.8C (38.8F) — busting the previous record of 4.2C (39.6F) set in 1971.
  • Vytegra’s 0C (32F) beat the previous record of 1.5C (34.7F) from way back in 1893.
  • Vyborg observed 6.7C (44F) surpassing the 7C (44.6F) set in 1978 (solar minimum of cycle 20).
  • Roslavl’s 7C (44.6F) beat out the 7.9C (46.2F) from 1935 (solar minimum of cycle 15).
  • Cherepovets4.1C (39.4F) busted the 4.8C (40.6F) set in 1995 (solar minimum of cycle 22)
  • Rybinsk registered 7.2C (45F) smashing the previous record low of 9.9C (49.8F) from 1977 (solar minimum of cycle 20).

While Kostroma’s 5.7C (42.3F) beat 1948’s record of 6.9C (44.4F).