by P. Homewood, July 27, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
New IPCC attribution statistics are distorting observational evidence
London, 27 July – A new paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation finds that the IPCC’s recent shift in methodology has led to misleading claims about changes in weather extremes.
The review, from physicist Dr Ralph Alexander, finds that IPCC claims that many of these weather extremes are increasing significantly are largely unsupported by observational evidence.
Ralph Alexander: Extreme Weather: The IPCC’s Changing Tune (pdf)
According to Dr Alexander:
“On almost every kind of extreme weather, with the possible exemption of heatwaves, the evidence for significant changes is scant. But the latest IPCC report has introduced novel ‘attribution’ statistics and now insists that things are getting worse. It’s yet another case of scientists trying to scare the public into compliance.”
Dr Alexander’s paper looks at:
– hot and cold extremes
– coral bleaching.
He concludes that:
“The mistaken belief that weather extremes are worsening because of climate change is more a perception, fostered by media coverage, than reality. The IPCC’s new statistical method is playing an unworthy part in bringing this sorry state of affairs to pass.”
GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review this paper, and to submit a response to be published as an appendix to it. No reply was received.
by P. Homewood, July 27, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
To compare this year with 1976 is really quite mendacious, as the latter was much, much drier. And as the BBC’s own chart shows, there have been eight other years since then with similar rainfall levels to this year. Indeed, in England, as opposed to England & Wales, both 1996 and 2010 had drier starts to the year).
In other words, this year is not an exceptional event, merely something you expect to see every few years or so.
And if you go back through the full Met Office record to 1836, we can see again that there is nothing at all unusual about this year.( Indeed, all of the really dry years occurred in 1976 and before:
See also : Driest Start Since 1976? No, 2010 Was Drier
by Ralph Alexander, April 2021 in GWPF
About the author iii Executive summary v 1. Introduction 1 2. Natural disaster analysis 2 3. Heatwave 6 4. Cold extremes 12 5. Drought 14 6. Precipitation and floods 16 7. Hurricanes 19 8. Tornadoes 23 9. Wildfires 26 10. Conclusions 31 Notes 33 Review process 38 About the Global Warming Policy Foundation 38
About the author
Retired physicist Dr. Ralph B. Alexander is the author of Global Warming False Alarm and Science Un- der Attack: The Age of Unreason. With a PhD in physics from the University of Oxford, he is also the author of numerous scientific papers and reports on complex technical issues. His thesis research in the interdisciplinary area of ion-solid interactions reflected his interest in a wide range of scien- tific topics.
Dr Alexander has been a researcher at major laboratories in Europe and Australia, a professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, the co-founder of an entrepreneurial materials company, and a market analyst in environmentally friendly materials for a small consulting firm.
by Cap Allon, Oct 4, 2020 in Electroverse
The out-of-season cold and snow currently blasting BOTH HEMISPHERES is intensifying: North America, western/northern Europe, central/eastern Asia, and practically ALL of Australia have now been joined by Argentina.
The South American nation of Argentina measures 2,175 miles long and lies between 21°S and 55°S. Despite its impressive latitude spanning length, the country has been completely engulfed by a powerful Antarctic blast.
Looking at the latest GFS run (shown below), Argentina is set to suffer temperature departures as much as 16C below the seasonal average on Sunday, Oct 4:
by H.S. Sterling Burnett, June 25, 2020 in GWPF
A new Global Warming Policy Foundation report from retired Oxford physicist Ralph Alexander supports the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s conclusion there is limited scientific evidence linking human caused climate change to increases in extreme weather.
Alexander’s conclusions are also confirmed by recent documents produced by Heartland Senior Fellow Anthony Watts on the website “Climate at a Glance.”
Alexander’s paper begins by remarking, “[t]he purported link between extreme weather and global warming has captured the public imagination and attention of the mainstream media far more than any of the other claims made by the narrative of human-caused climate change.”
by Ralph Alexander, June 4, 2020 in CO2Colation
The paper, by physicist Dr Ralph Alexander, looks at trends in hot and cold weather extremes, floods and droughts, hurricanes and wildfires and finds only a minor increase in cold weather extremes.
According to Dr Alexander, weather extremes is one area where the IPCC has been reasonably empirical and scientific in recent years.
As he explains:
The IPCC stands out, among those who believe that global warming is primarily due to human activity, as a voice of restraint on the issue of extreme weather. My review is in broad agreement with their position: there is little sign things are getting worse.”
In particular, Dr Alexander points to the underreported global reductions in floods, wildfires and hurricanes, but he cautions that many of the changes are likely to be cyclical.
The key driver for many weather extremes is natural ocean cycles like El Nino and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Eventually these cycles will turn, and we should be ready. But we shouldn’t be under any illusion that we can prevent extreme weather by changing our lifestyles”.
Weather Extremes: Are They Caused By Global Warming? (pdf)
by B. Peiser, June 4, 2020 in ClimateChangeDispatch
A new review of the scientific literature on extreme weather events published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) confirms what IPCC assessment reports have concluded: There is little evidence of any significant changes in most indices.
The paper, by physicist Dr. Ralph Alexander, looks at trends in hot and cold weather extremes, floods and droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires and finds only a minor increase in cold weather extremes.
by P. Homewood, May 2, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
In other words, all we have had is “weather”, and of the type we have had plenty of times in the past.
What has made the month much warmer than average is the persistence of this weather. Indeed this has been the pattern all year, with daily temperatures consistently above average, but within the normal band.
by Cap Allon, July 19, 2019 in Electroverse
On the back of Russia’s horde of new record low temperatures set on July 12, a bucket-load more were set over the following few days, busting records that had previously stood for well over 100 years.
The mercury across the majority of Europe has remained well-below average during the month of July as a string of Arctic blasts continue to delay the start of the continent’s summer. Large regions are seeing temperature departures of up to 20C below average, sending all-time cold records tumbling.
And now Russia has 7 more daily records to add to the ever-expanding list (data courtesy of www.hmn.ru):
- Sortavala recorded 3.8C (38.8F) — busting the previous record of 4.2C (39.6F) set in 1971.
- Vytegra’s 0C (32F) beat the previous record of 1.5C (34.7F) from way back in 1893.
- Vyborg observed 6.7C (44F) surpassing the 7C (44.6F) set in 1978 (solar minimum of cycle 20).
- Roslavl’s 7C (44.6F) beat out the 7.9C (46.2F) from 1935 (solar minimum of cycle 15).
- Cherepovets‘ 4.1C (39.4F) busted the 4.8C (40.6F) set in 1995 (solar minimum of cycle 22)
- Rybinsk registered 7.2C (45F) smashing the previous record low of 9.9C (49.8F) from 1977 (solar minimum of cycle 20).
While Kostroma’s 5.7C (42.3F) beat 1948’s record of 6.9C (44.4F).