by K. Richard, Feb 17,2022 in NoTricksZone
The temperature record for this region also shows today’s temperatures are not much different than they were during the Little Ice Age.
Another chart contained in the study (Pleskot et al., 2022) shows North America’s and Europe’s mean annual temperatures are nearly the lowest of the last 4,500 years.
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by D. Middleton, Feb 9, 2022 in WUWT
The map is from the University of Maine’s ClimateReanalyzer.org. Today’s “climate” is a mere 0.1 °C above “normal” (normal is in quotation marks for a reason
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by D. Archibald, Feb 2, 2022 in WentwothReport
Reports from the current Northern Hemisphere winter include plenty of low temperature records broken, frozen seas off Greece, etc., suggesting that the world is cooling. A correspondent in Missouri writes:
Nearly 800 chill hours here so far … cold forecast for the next 2 weeks. Will hit 1000 easily. The average when we moved here not quite 20 years ago was 5-600 … for the entire winter. (Chill hours refer to the total amount of time a fruit tree needs to be exposed to cold winter temperatures to allow them break dormancy so they will flower and set fruit normally.)
So that is good news for Missouri — they will now be able to grow things like peaches with a high chill hour requirement for fruiting. Confirmation of colder Northern Hemisphere winters is provided by the snow mass trend by the Finnish Meteorlogical Institute:
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by Gavin, Feb 2, 2020 in RealClimate
We have now updated the model-observations comparison page for the 2021 SAT and MSU TMT datasets. Mostly this is just ‘another dot on the graphs’ but we have made a couple of updates of note. First, we have updated the observational products to their latest versions (i.e. HadCRUT5, NOAA-STAR 4.1 etc.), though we are still using NOAA’s GlobalTemp v5 – the Interim version will be available later this year. Secondly, we have added a comparison of the observations to the new CMIP6 model ensemble.
As we’ve discussed previously, the CMIP6 ensemble contains a dozen models (out of ~50) with climate sensitivities that are outside the CMIP5 range, and beyond the very likely constraints from the observations. This suggests that comparisons to the observations should be weighted in some way. One reasonable option is to follow the work of Tokarska et al (2020) and others, and restrict the comparison to those models that have a transient climate response (TCR) that is consistent with observations. The likely range of TCR is 1.4ºC to 2.2ºC according to IPCC AR6, and so we plot both the mean and 95% spread over all all models (1 ensemble member per model) (grey) and the TCR-screened subset (pink).
CMIP6 model means and spreads since 1979 (reader friendly version).
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by NoTricksZone, Feb 2, 2022 in WUWT
According to the media and climate alarmists, winters like we used to have in the global cooling days of the 1970s were supposed to be disappearing due to increasing warming from rising CO2.
But that hasn’t really been happening. For example, Stefan Kämpfe at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) plotted Germany’s mean January temperature going back to 1988:
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by L. Hamlin, Jan 17, 2022 in WUWT
OAA published its global climate report for year end 2021 highlighting that its global temperature anomaly measurements showed 2021 being the sixth highest of its recorded measurements. NOAA’s global annual measurement for 2021 was 0.84 degrees C.
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NOAA chose to emphasize that the annual 2021 temperature anomaly was in the top ten of its recorded years as follows:
“The year culminated as the sixth warmest year on record for the globe with a temperature that was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20th century average. The years 2013–2021 all rank among the ten warmest years on record.”
What NOAA failed to highlight was that the year-end 2021 global temperature anomaly measurement marked the continuing decline of its global temperature anomaly measurements that have now fallen for the last 6 years since peak year 2016 as shown in their graph below. These declining measurement outcomes make a complete mockery of recent climate alarmists scientifically unsupported politically contrived “climate emergency” propaganda claims.
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by P. Homewood, Jan 7, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
December 1961 can be summed up in two words – cold and snow. The month was the 9th coldest on record since 1884.
The first week saw widespread snow and severe gales, whilst the Christmas week was one of the coldest of the century, with more heavy snow:
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https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_7498a04d-6a40-4207-a27f-772663ffd2fc/
In this monthly lookback through the archives, two things are abundantly clear for every month we have checked:
1) Weather was every bit as extreme in the past
2) The weather can vary enormously from one year to another. This can not be better exemplified than the series for December, which has offered up very mild months to very cold ones, very dry ones to very wet, and very snowy ones to very little snow.
by F. Vahrenholt, Dec 14, 2021 in NoTricksZone
On November 3, 2021, the renowned scientific journal Climate published a paper on solar influence on climate.
The paper by the renowned solar researcher Dr. Frank Stefani from the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf is entitled: “Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: A Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions” and concludes that the influence of CO2 on the development of global temperatures from 1860 until today was only about half as large as the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assumed.
As a reminder, the IPCC concludes that 98% of the warming ( 1.07 degrees out of 1.09 degrees) is human-induced. According to Stefani’s analysis, the solar influence accounts for 30-70%.
Stefani examined the course of the geomagnetic aa – index, which reflects the strength of the earth’s magnetic field. This index has been measured in Cambridge and Melbourne since 1844 and reflects the influence of solar activity. In earlier publications, Stefani had already been able to prove that the 11-year solar cycle is triggered by the gravitational forces of Venus, Earth and Jupiter, which are in orbital resonance every 11.07 years (here, here and here).
Since the Sun – influenced by all the planets (especially Jupiter and Saturn) – also moves around the center of gravity of the solar system, solar cycles arise that have become known in temperature history as the 193-year Suess-de Vries cycle and the 90-year Gleissberg cycle.
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by R. Spencer, Dec 9, 2021 in CornwallAlliance
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November 2021 was +0.08 deg. C, down substantially from the October 2021 value of +0.37 deg. C.
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by K. Richard, Nov 22, 2021 in NoTricksZone
A new study suggests CO2 molecules have little consequential impact affecting outgoing radiation, and that climate models attribute global temperature effects to CO2 that are fundamentally erroneous.
Russian physicists (Smirnov and Zhilyaev, 2021) have published a peer-reviewed paper in the Advances in Fundamental Physics Special Issue for the journal Foundations.
They assesses the role of CO2 molecules in the standard atmosphere and assert “we have a contradiction with the results of climatological models in the analysis of the Earth’s greenhouse effect.”
Key points from the paper include the following:
1. Climate model calculations of CO2’s impact on global temperatures are in error by a factor of 5 as a result of “ignoring, in climatological models, the Kirchhoff law” which says radiators are “simultaneously the absorbers.”
2. Change in the concentration of an optically active atmospheric component (like CO2) “would not lead to change in the outgoing radiative flux.”
3. CO2 molecules “are not the main radiator of the atmosphere.” Water vapor molecules are, and thus they “may be responsible for the observed heating of the Earth.”
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by P. Gosselin, Nov 26, 2021 in WUWT
Die kalte Sonne reports on a new aerosol study by Liu et al.
The results are a major blow to the high greenhouse-gas climate sensitivity modelers.
IPCC scientists have a favorite wild card they often use to explain serious model discrepancies: aerosols. Mysterious cooling events in the past are often explained away by aerosols from major volcanic eruptions, for example. They act to filter out sunlight.
ccording to IPCC climate models, the mean global temperature should have risen by 1.5°C since 1850 due to the higher CO2 concentrations. But best estimates show that it has instead risen by only 1.1°C. So what about the missing 0.4°C?
Naturally, the missing 0.4°C of warming since 1850 gets explained by the higher 20th century aerosol levels in the atmosphere – due to the burning of fossil fuels. Air pollution by man over the course of the late 19th century and entire 20th century are said to have dimmed the earth, and thus this explains the 0.4°C less warming.
Surprise: global aerosol emissions have been flat over past 250 years
But now results by a new study appearing in the journal Science Advances by Liu et al tells us that the forcing by aerosols had to have been overestimated by climate modelers. IPCC modelers insisted that 20th century aerosol concentrations were higher than during the pre-industrial times, and this is what kept the climate from warming by 1.5°C.
According to the scientists led by Liu, however, atmospheric aerosols in the preindustrial times were just as high as they were just recently. They were in fact more or less constant over the past 250 years. No change means it could not have been aerosols putting the brakes on temperature rise:
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That’s a real embarrassment for the IPCC modelers. It means CO2 climate sensitivity has been overestimated.
by P. Gosselin, Oct 17, 2021 in NoTricksZone
Today we look at September mean temperatures at the stations across northern Europe for which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have enough data. We find fall is not being pushed back as we should expect in a warming world.
The JMA has published the data for September and again we see a continuing warming hiatus.
First we look at the September trends from 6 stations in Ireland since 1991:
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by K. Richard, Oct 14, 2021 in NoTricksZone
From Russia to the Indian Ocean to Antarctica, surface temperatures were much warmer than they are today during Medieval times.
1. The Eastern Russia region was 1.5°C warmer than now during the Medieval Warm Period. The modern warm-up began centuries ago and temperatures have declined in the last few centuries. Relative sea levels were 1 m higher than now 1,000 years ago.
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2. Scientists use coral fossil evidence to suggest mean sea surface temperatures (SST) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly were “warmer than today”. At the two Indian Ocean study sites, there has been no obvious SST warming since 1982.
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3. The modern (1994-2004) surface temperatures in the South China Sea are colder now than any time in the last 6000 years. Except for a brief interval ~500 years ago, SSTs have been consistently 2-4°C warmer than today since the middle Holocene.
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4. Modern sea ice extent for Antarctica’s Ross Sea is more extensive today (and temperatures cooler) than nearly any time in 6000 years. It was warmer with less sea ice 1.6 to 0.7k years ago. Penguin numbers decline with cooling/increased sea ice.
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by L. Hamlin, Oct 6, 2021 in WUWT
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The “climate emergency” claim hyped by Scientific American and other political climate alarmist entities is based on the completely fallacious statement that “the planet is heating up way to fast” with that flawed claim representing nothing but politics and propaganda that is disproved by actually measured global temperature anomaly temperature measurements between 1988 and 2021 as well as being directly contradicted by the more than 5 year-long declining global temperature anomaly data presented by all 5 major global temperature anomaly measurement systems between 2016 and 2021.
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by P. Homewood, Sept 7, 2021 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
The World Meteorological Organisation is clear about defining climate average:
It is disappointing then that the Met Office still continues to use the 1981-2010 period as its base. By doing this, of course, it exaggerates temperature increases in the UK.
If we look at the Central England Temperature mean temperatures, for example, we see that both winter and spring this year were colder than average, whilst summer was only 0.3C warmer:
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by Atwood et al., Aug 18, 2021 in NoTricksZone
A new study by Atwood et al (2021) published in the journal of Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology found there’s “poor agreement” between precipitation reconstructions and model simulations over the past 2000 years. This means future projections made by current models are unreliable.
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Models and reconstructions don’t agree
These comprehensive reconstructions show that from 800 to 1000 CE there was a pronounced drying event relative from the eastern Pacific and parts of Mesoamerica.
Also the period “1400–1700 CE is marked by pronounced hydroclimate changes across the tropics, including dry and/or isotopically enriched conditions in South and East Asia, wet and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the central Andes and southern Amazon in South America, and fresher and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the Maritime Continent.”
The study’s abstract also notes how there’s a glaring disagreement between the simulations done by models and what the reconstructions show: “We find notable dissimilarities between the regional hydroclimate changes and global-scale and hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, indicating that more work needs to be done to understand the mechanisms of the widespread tropical hydroclimate changes during the LIA.”
by C. Monckton of Brenchley, Aug 3 2021 in WUWT
The New Pause has lengthened by another two months. Even though the brief la Niña that began in late 2020 has now ended, on the UAH dataset there has been no global warming for 6 years 6 months till July 2021. As always, the Pause is calculated as the longest period ending in the present that shows no warming trend, taken as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the UAH satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere:
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by K. Richard, July 8, 2021 in NoTricksZone
There has been no net warming in the Rocky Mountains in the last 500 years.
The southern Rocky Mountains were as warm or warmer than recent decades during the 1600s and 1700s and they have been cooling since the 1950s (Berkelhammer and Stott, 2012, Heeter et al., 2020).
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by P. Gosselin & Kirye, July 6, 2021 in ClimateChangeDispatch
Before we begin, Dr. Roy Spencer just published that Version 6 of the University of Alabama-Huntsville satellite-based global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June 2021 was -0.01 deg. C, down from the May 2021 value of +0.08 deg. C.
As Dr. Spencer’s chart above shows, temperatures are back within the range seen 20 years ago. The hiatus in global temperature rise appears to have resumed.
June cooling in Tokyo
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Source: JMA
Read more at No Tricks Zone
by C. Monckton of Brenchley, July 3, 2021 in WUWT
The latest UAH temperature anomalies show that the New Pause has lengthened by another two months to 6 years 10 months. As usual, the Pause is defined as the longest period, up to the most recent month for which data are available, during which the linear-regression trend on the monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies shows no increase.
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Pauses have no predictive purpose. Just because there has been no global warming for more than seven years (HadCRUT4) or almost seven years (UAH), that does not mean there will be no global warming in future.
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by Roy Spencer, July 3, 2021 in WUWT
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2021 was -0.01 deg. C, down from the May, 2021 value of +0.08 deg. C.
REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
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by R. Spencer, June 1st, 2021 in GlobalWarming
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2021 was +0.08 deg. C, up from the April, 2021 value of -0.05 deg. C.
REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
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by P. Gosselin, May 14, 2021 in NoTricksZone
The April, 2021, mean temperature data collected by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has been tabulated and are ready to be added to our monthly plots.
Today we look at the April mean temperature trends for stations which the JMA has sufficient data and which are located in northern countries. Global warming is thought to be first visible at the far northern and Arctic regions.
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by P. Gosselin, May 8, 2021 in NoTricksZone
At Die kalte Sonne, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt – one of the founders of Germany’s modern environmental movement – presents his monthly summary, which includes a look at global temperature and how the models are doing.
“The global mean temperature deviation of satellite-based measurements from the mean of the 1991 – 2020 period was -0.05 degrees Celsius in April 2021. Nevertheless, German courts have ruled that something has got to be done about the warming planet!
Global temperature curve in April 2021
The cool La Niña situation over the recent months is still having an effect. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 80% probability that La Niña will end between May and July. However, the agency expects a new La Niña to begin again in the fall.
The average temperature increase has been 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. The model calculations, on which the IPCC’s recommendations are based, come up with a temperature increase that is twice as high for the same period (see chart below, source: R. Spencer 2021).
This striking deviation from the real temperature development is politically significant, because model forecasts are the basis for far-reaching decisions, such as constitutional court rulings.”
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by W. Eschenbach, March 23, 2021 in WUWT
My mind runs to curious corners of the climate question. I got to thinking about how little the atmospheric CO2 level has changed over most of the last two thousand years. Here is the CO2 data from ice cores (colored dots) and from the Mauna Loa CO2 measuring stations (red/black line).
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