by JunkScience, Jan 5, 2023
Ten bogus climate claims and more from December 2023 debunked here.
December ended with the so-called “newspaper of record” running with this graph of infamy:
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UK Rainfall In 2023
by P. Homewood, Jan 7 ,2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKonwThat
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_totals.txt
Last year was a wet one in England & Wales, the 7th wettest on record. (The UK series has a similar result).
We routinely hear claims that the climate is wetter because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, (while also being told we will get more droughts!). However the fact that we have had similarly wet years in the distant past, such as 1768, 1852, 1872, 1877, 1882, 1903 and 1960, rather demolishes that argument.
The major factor behind last year’s high rainfall was that the number of rain days was also one of the highest on record since 1931, when Met Office daily data begins. In short, annual rainfall was high because of weather, not climate.
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Rising Maximum Temperatures
by K. Hansen, Jan5, 2024 in WUWT
Roger Pielke Jr. recently posted a piece at The Honest Broker titled: “U.S. Climate Extremes: 2023 Year in Review – A Very Normal Year” – which was subsequently reposted at WUWT.
In that post, he uses this graphic:
(I have increased the size of the titles for clarity – kh)
It is easy to see that the trends of both the Maximum January temperatures and the Maximum July temperatures have been rising — more so for January temperatures than July — though this is somewhat obscured by the different scales of the two graphs. [Caveat: The temperature record on which this graph is based is not scientifically reliable before about 1940.] Also, one has to be careful to note what exactly they are really measuring.
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CET Daily Temperatures
by P. Homewood, Jan 4, 2023 in NotaLotofPeople KnowThat
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max2023.html
I want to focus on the end of year CET graph, which gives the lie to the extreme temperature myth often bandied around.
The graph plots daily max CET temperatures, against the background of the percentiles of the 1961-90 climatology. The Met Office should of course be using 1991-2020 as the baseline, so the climatology should be shifted upwards by a half a degree or so. But we’ll leave that aside.
We can legitimately regard anything between the 5% and 95% bands as being “weather”. Only days outside this might be regarded as “extreme”. (I would actually argue anything outside 1% and 99%).
We see that apart from a handful of days, every day was within that “normal weather” band.
In a year there will be 36 days outside of that band on average. The Met Office do not supply the data for these percentiles to enable the number of days to be calculated, but this year it does not look to be excessive in terms of that average.
Moreover, although there were a few days in September which set record highs for that particularly day, none were records for the month as a whole. The highest temperature last September was 28.9C, but the record for September stands at 31.5C in 1906:
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Of course most of the year had temperatures above the average. But we have a wide range of weather in Britain. We can have mild, wet winters, and cold, snowy ones; we can have cool, wet summers and sunny hot ones. But these are weather events, not climate, and they are dependent on weather patterns, the jet stream and so on.
A predominance of warmer weather is not climate change.
No Trends In Extratropical Cyclones – IPCC
by P. Homewood, Jan 2, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
We constantly hear that storms are getting worse because of global warming. These claims are not referring to hurricanes and tropical storms, but the sort of storm which hits the UK several times every winter.
These are known as Extratropical Storms. The clown Jim Dale made this very claim again this week after Strom Gerrit. According to him, it is all to do with warm oceans, which pep up these storms. If this was correct, there would never be any storms in the Arctic. But claims such as this show a basic misunderstanding of meteorology; astonishing for somebody who claims to be a meteorologist!
NOAA explain the difference between tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs):
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61 NoTricksZone Articles On Studies, Datasets From 2023 Show Climate Models Are Rubbish
by P. Gosselin, Ec 31, 2023 in NoTricksZone
Most climate models are worse than garbage, a number of real measurements, peer-reviewed studies and data show. Their phony results are mainly used to spread fear.
The outputs of model simulations often get confused by the media and public as real measurement results. But often they are generated nefariously to promote panic.
Recall the pandemic models showing showing 100s of millions would die if we didn’t lockdown. In reality COVID 19 was no worse than a regular flu.
What follows are 61 NTZ posts from 2023 that show that climate model results have nothing to do with reality. Their outputs are garbage.
1. Typhoons are supposed to be getting more frequent and worse. They are not.
2. Sea levels rise is accelerating, models say. Fact: at many places they are falling.
3. It’s the hottest in 125,000 years. Wrong, e.g. it was fore example 4-7°C warmer in Austria 2000 years ago.
4. CO2 is the main driver. It is not. Models severely underestimate clouds.
5. Water vapor causes warming. But here’s a study that suggests the opposite.
6. CO2 leads to warming and drought. But the opposite is true: greening and cooling.
7. Winters in Tokyo are warming, the models tell us. But JMA data in fact show they are cooling.
8. Models show rapidly rising sea levels. But tide gauges and studies show it’s not true.
9. Models say Venice is gonna sink. It’s not happening, a study shows.
10. Models say that Holocene sea levels are higher than ever today. But mid-Holocene levels were 1-3 meters higher.
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51. Remember how the models predicted Greenland would melt rapidly and cause sea levels to rise by meters? Well, since 1992, it has only contributed 1.2 CENTIMETERS!
52. Oops, also volcanic activity got neglected by the models too.
53. Two Portuguese scientists (Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023) identify at least 8 assumptions in the “greenhouse gas hypothesis” that lack scientific validation. Models can’t work if the assumptions are grossly false.
54. Models got the aerosol forcings wrong too. ..10 times larger.
55. Antarctica has cooled. Models are wrong on that, too.
56. Models have been failing for 4 decades. Remember above how we remarked they worked better in the 1980s.
57. Modern sea ice extent is nearly the highest it’s been in 9000 years.
58. The rise of CO2 over the past 120 years hasn’t really altered the greenhouse effect. Someone tell the modelers.
59. A new paper finds that the models have it backwards: warming drives CO2!
60. Definitely today is NOT the warmest its been in 125,000 years, not even 10,000 years.
61. German Helmholtz UFZ ground moisture models insist the ground is still dry, even after weeks of heavy rains and floods.
Is the Low Snowpack this Year a Sign of Global Warming?
C. Mass, Jan1, 2024 in WUWT
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El Nino
We are in a very strong El Nino and such events are highly correlated with warm winter temperatures and poor snowpack over the region. Sea surface temperatures have been about 2C above normal over the past two months (see below).
According to NOAA/NWS, El Nino years are associated with warmer than normal October-November-Decembers (see below for a local climate division)
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Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions
by C. Morrison, Dec 23, 2023 in WUWT
The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.
In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.
It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.
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Hottest In 125,000 Years?
by P. Homewood, Dec 26, 2023 in WUWT
Just about all of the media have been peddling the “Hottest for 125,000 years” claim, which suggests a very concerted effort by the climate establishment in the run up to COP28.
The claim is self evident and baseless nonsense for a number of good reasons:
- There is no such thing as “a global average temperature”
- Even now we have very sparse coverage of temperature measurements. Prior to satellites, we had virtually no data outside of the US, Europe and a few other built up areas
- The temperature record we do have is thoroughly corrupted by UHI, and only dates back to the late 19thC
- Natural variations, including ENSO, volcanic activity etc, can easily cause temperature swings of a degree Celsius from year to year, and decade to decade. But historical proxies don’t have the fine resolution to pick these up, they merely give an idea of average temperatures over decades and even centuries. Consequently you cannot compare one year now with the general climate of, say, 2000 years ago.
But forget about all of these theoretical objections, because the climatic evidence we do have is overwhelming, and it tells us that the climate has been much warmer than now for most of the last 10000 years, since the end of the ice age.
Here are ten powerful, incontrovertible pieces of evidence:
1) Greenland
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Climate Science Double-Speak
by K. Hansen, 2017 in WUWT
A quick note for the amusement of the bored but curious.
While in search of something else, I ran across this enlightening page from the folks at UCAR/NCAR [The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/The National Center for Atmospheric Research — see pdf here for more information]:
“What is the average global temperature now?”
We are first reminded that “Climate scientists prefer to combine short-term weather records into long-term periods (typically 30 years) when they analyze climate, including global averages.” As we know, these 30-year periods are referred to as “base periods” and different climate groups producing data sets and graphics of Global Average Temperatures often use differing base periods, something that has to be carefully watched for when comparing results between groups.
Then things get more interesting, in that we get an actual number for Global Average Surface Temperature:
“Today’s global temperature is typically measured by how it compares to one of these past long-term periods. For example, the average annual temperature for the globe between 1951 and 1980 was around 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit (14 degrees Celsius). In 2015, the hottest year on record, the temperature was about 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C) warmer than the 1951–1980 base period.”
Quick minds see immediately that 1.8°F warmer than 57.2°F is actually 59°F [or 15° C] which they simply could have said.
UCAR/NCAR goes on to “clarify”:
“Since there is no universally accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, several different groups around the world use slightly different methods for tracking the global average over time, including:
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
UK Met Office Hadley Centre”
We are told, in plain language, that there is no accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, but assured that it is scientifically tracked by the several groups listed.
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Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions
by C. Morrison, Dec 24, 2023 in WUWT
The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.
In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.
It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.
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Old King Coal at COP28: Uninvited Guest or Star of the Show?
by T. Coclanis, Dec 23, 2023 in WUWT
Last Friday, just two days after the Dubai COP28 meeting ended, a report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global coal demand will set another new record this year. Although coal use in the West is falling, demand in developing economies “remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output.”
Perhaps the best preamble to COP28 was delivered by India’s Power Minister, R. K. Singh. On November 6th, he stated “There is going to be pressure on nations at COP-28 to reduce coal usage. We are not going to do this… we are not going to compromise on availability of power for our growth, even if it requires that we add coal-based capacity”. India plans an additional 30 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fueled power generating capacity in addition to the existing 50 GW and plants already under construction. It is also set to increase coal production by 60% by 2030, from its current level of 1 billion tons, to ensure ample supply for its thermal power plants.
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Natural H2 Emissions in Colombian Ophiolites: First Findings
by A. Carillo Ramirez et al., Dec 2023 in MDPI/Springer
Abstract
The exploration of natural H2 or white hydrogen has started in various geological settings. Ophiolitic nappes are already recognized as one of the promising contexts. In South America, the only data available so far concerns the Archean iron-rich rocks of the Mina Gerais in Brazil or the subduction context of Bolivia. In Colombia, despite government efforts to promote white hydrogen, data remain limited. This article introduces the initial dataset obtained through soil gas sampling within the Cauca-Patia Valley and Western Cordillera, where the underlying geology comprises accreted oceanic lithosphere. In this valley, promising areas with H2 potential were identified using remote sensing tools, in particular vegetation anomalies. The Atmospherically Resistant Vegetation Index (ARVI) appears to be well adapted for this context and the field data collection confirmed the presence of H2 in the soil in all pre-selected structures. The valley undergoes extensive cultivation, mainly for sugar cane production. While H2emissions lead to alterations in vegetation, unlike reports from other countries, they do not result in its complete disappearance. Soil gas measurements along the thrusts bordering the Cauca Valley also show high H2 content in the fault zones. In the valley, the presence of sedimentary cover above the ophiolites which are presumably the H2generating rocks, which addresses the possible presence of reservoirs and seals to define potential plays. Drawing parallels with the Malian case, it could be that the intrusive element could serve as seals.…
Keywords:Colombia; natural H2; Cauca-Patia Valley; ophiolites; vegetation index
Can Extractive Industries Make Countries Happy? What Are Potential Implications for the Geoscientist? Overview and Case Study Examples from Papua New Guinea and Worldwide
by N. Mosusu et al., Dec 2023 in MDPI/Springer
Abstract
Geoscientists are involved in both the upstream and downstream side of the extractive industries. As explorationists and field geologists, they are often the first technical people related to extractive industries that communities meet. It is imperative in an increasingly globalized and holistic world that geoscientists gain greater awareness of the socio-economic impact of extractive industries and become a more proactive part of improving outcomes for all with respect to extractive industries. When Jigme Singye Wangchuk, the King of Bhutan, first suggested the concept of ‘Gross National Happiness’ (GNH) in 1972, it was met with widespread cynicism and puzzlement. Was the concept meaningful in a hard, economically competitive world? A series of measures, including the Human Development Index (HDI), the Gini Coefficient (GC), and the now annual World Happiness Report (WHR), are evolutionary responses to the 1972 GNH and are widely accepted as proxy measures of holistic human progress. These measures go beyond the narrow confines of Gross Domestic Product and similar economic proxies, placing economic parameters alongside the social, environmental, spiritual, human rights, health, and holistic societal issues. The broad conclusions of the plethora of metrics are that ‘happiness’ links to issues and ideas such as equity, minimal economic inequality, excellent governance, human rights, individual freedom, and so forth. We ask the question: what is the relationship between extractive industries (EIs) and GNH? We present a wide range of data and analytical diagrams/text examining potential correlations and associations between GNH and EIs. We examine potential relationships using global data and case studies for Papua New Guinea, Mongolia, the DRC, and Jamaica. The conclusions of this analysis of course suggest a complex relationship between EIs and GNH. We acknowledge that in situations of weak governance and institutions, EIs struggle to make any tangible difference with respect to GNH. A counter conclusion that EIs may even be a major cause of weak governance, which in turn suppresses happiness, must be seriously considered. We document examples where EIs have made a definitive positive improvement to GNH. Data suggest that hydrocarbon-rich countries have made better progress with respect to GNH than mineral-rich countries. However, the main conclusion is that the link between EIs and GNH remains a work in progress, and that a narrow focus on profit and shareholder return is an antithetical approach to the GNH paradigm. A key recommendation is that industry must adopt a far more active role (rather than merely a passive role) with respect to translating the many potential benefits of EIs into GNH than has hitherto been the case.
Keywords:geoscience; happiness; extractive industries; governance; minerals; hydrocarbons
1. Introduction: How Can We Possibly Measure National Happiness? What Is the Relevance for Geoscientists?
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2 More New Studies Undermine Alarmist Claims That Corals Are Harmed By Warming
by K. Richard, Dec 21, 2023 in NotricksZone
Warmer sea surface temperatures are associated with coral growth, not decline.
According to a new study, coral growth was slow during the ~1°C colder Little Ice Age (LIA), but grew rapidly as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed after 1850. Warmth is associated with coral growth, whereas colder SSTs are linked to growth rate decline.
“The average growth rate of four colonies living in the LIA is 0.87 ± 0.11 cm/yr, which is significantly (t-test, p < 0.0001) lower than the colonies in the 20th century [1.23 ± 0.22 cm/yr].”
“The observed low average growth rates during the LIA can be explained by the ~1°C lower temperature.”
Ocean pH levels were as low or lower (more “acidified”) than recent decades during the LIA (e.g., 1500s to 1700s CE), suggesting that the atmospheric CO2 levels are not an ocean pH variability determinant. In fact, the authors point out that anthropogenic CO2 can only ever affect pH variability by 0.05 of a unit over centuries, whereas natural variations in pH units can reach 0.1 to 0.3 within a decade or less.
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Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Greater Than The Early 1980s
by P. Homewood, Dec 21, 2023 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat
There was much scaremongering from the alarmist community when Antarctic sea ice extent fell earlier in the year. As the Antarctic summer begins, the melt has slowed down, to the extent that extent is not even the lowest since 1979, and it is higher than in 2017:
https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
But much more important is the fact that sea ice volume remains higher than the early 1980s, thanks to the fact that it is much thicker than normal around the peninsula:
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2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air
by D. Whitehouse, Dec 20, 2023 in NetZeroWatch
While 2023 will be the warmest year of the instrumental era, nobody knows why or what it means for the future of climate trends.
As can be seen from the year-to-date graph from NOAA below, 2023 started off with non-exceptional global temperature average – but from June onwards all months broke global records. Such was the cooler start to the year that it was only in September that it became apparent that 2023 could be the warmest year, surpassing the previous holder – 2016 – another El Nino year.
Clearly El Nino has a lot to do with it, coming after an unusual three years of La Nina events that tend to absorb heat in the oceans, releasing it in a subsequent El Nino, as has now happened. So as far as this represents “accelerating climate change” (as NOAA contends) it is debatable as it is mostly a delayed heat distribution, but time will tell.
It is pertinent to say that climate scientists were a little puzzled at this year’s sudden temperature surge as they cannot quite explain it: their models neither predict it nor are they able to account for the surprise. Other factors have contributed to it including the ongoing lifting of the aerosol pollution, especially by China, and the use of new formula ship fuels. The Hunga Tonga explosion that injected water vapour into the stratosphere might have had an effect, though probably a minor one. The Sun reaching the peak of the solar cycle will also have had a small influence.
All this means that 2024 could be another record year if the El Nino progresses, but 2025 will probably see global temperatures fall somewhat. Some have speculated that this will make 2024 the first year to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C threshold, although a single year is not indicative of a long term trend.
But how would we know we have passed this threshold?
Redefining Climate
Continuer la lecture de 2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air
More coal burned on Earth in 2023 than ever before in human history
by Jo Nova, Dec19, 2023 in JoNova
The best kept secret in the world is that humans are using more coal than ever
So much for the “stranded dead asset”. In 2022 the world set a new all-time record for coal use — reaching 8.4 billion tons. In 2023, despite all the Net Zero billions in spending, despite the boom in windmills and solar panels, global demand for coal will top 8.54 billion tons.
The IEA is the “International Energy Agency” — supposedly, the impartial servant of 31 nations worth of taxpayers. Yet they decided to ignore the world record and instead tell us how coal is set to decline. It’s what they think the taxpayers need to hear. Their press release:
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New Study Now Claims We Humans Heat The Atmosphere Just By Exhaling
by K. Richard, Dec 18, 2023 in NoTricksZone
“Where hydrocarbon chains (food types) are consumed by humans and turned into CH4 [methane] … global warming potential is no longer neutral, and human respiration has a net warming effect on the atmosphere.” – Prada et al., 2023
Image Source pexels.com (stock photo)
According to a new study, humans “contribute to global warming” by exhaling greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide 16 times per minute.
“Exhaled human breath can contain small, elevated concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which contribute to global warming. These emissions from humans are not well understood and are rarely quantified in global greenhouse gas inventories.”
Like bovine populations, humans are referred to as “methane producers” (MPs), respiring and burping this potent greenhouse gas simply by existing. (Concerns about methane’s global warming potential are so significant that New Zealand is imposing a “methane tax” on the nation’s cows, as these MP animals are heating up the planet with their burps.)
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Ninety-Nine Percent? Re-Examining the Consensus on the Anthropogenic Contribution to Climate Change
by Denteslski et al. , Nov 2023 in MDPI/Springer
Abstract
Anthropogenic activity is considered a central driver of current climate change. A recent paper, studying the consensus regarding the hypothesis that the recent increase in global temperature is predominantly human-made via the emission of greenhouse gasses (see text for reference), argued that the scientific consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature pertaining to this hypothesis exceeds 99%. This conclusion was reached after the authors scanned the abstracts and titles of some 3000 papers and mapped them according to their (abstract) statements regarding the above hypothesis. Here, we point out some major flaws in the methodology, analysis, and conclusions of the study. Using the data provided in the study, we show that the 99% consensus, as defined by the authors, is actually an upper limit evaluation because of the large number of “neutral” papers which were counted as pro-consensus in the paper and probably does not reflect the true situation. We further analyze these results by evaluating how so-called “skeptic” papers fit the consensus and find that biases in the literature, which were not accounted for in the aforementioned study, may place the consensus on the low side. Finally, we show that the rating method used in the study suffers from a subjective bias which is reflected in large variations between ratings of the same paper by different raters. All these lead to the conclusion that the conclusions of the study does not follow from the data.
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Measurements of methane and nitrous oxide in human breath and the development of UK scale emissions
by C. Rotter, Dec 16, 2023 in WUWT/PlosOne
In a recent study published in PLOS ONE, titled “Measurements of methane and nitrous oxide in human breath and the development of UK scale emissions,” researchers have embarked on a quest that epitomizes the absurdity of current climate change discourse. This study, focusing on the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from human breath, is not only a glaring example of scientific overreach but also a worrying indicator of the lengths to which climate alarmism is willing to go.
The study’s objective to investigate emissions from human breath in the UK population is fundamentally flawed. It operates under the assumption that these emissions are significant enough to warrant detailed analysis and inclusion in national greenhouse gas inventories. This premise is laughable at best, considering the minuscule percentage these emissions contribute to the overall greenhouse gas emissions.
The methodology employed in the study is questionable. Collecting 328 breath samples from 104 volunteers hardly constitutes a representative sample of the UK population. Furthermore, the study’s reliance on such a small sample size to draw conclusions about national-scale emissions is a classic case of over-extrapolation.
The study’s findings that 31% of participants were methane producers and that all participants emitted nitrous oxide are presented without adequate context. These results are portrayed as significant, yet they fail to consider the broader environmental impact. The fact that these emissions are stated contribute a mere 0.05% and 0.1% to the UK’s total emissions of CH4 and N2O, respectively, well below any margin of error in “national inventories” renders these findings insignificant.
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Claim: Global Warming is Reducing Maximum Temperatures in the Himalayas
by E. Worrall, Dec 15, 2023 in WUWT
Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 1120–1127 (2023)Cite this article
Abstract
Understanding the response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming is vital because of their role as a water source for the Asian subcontinent. However, great uncertainties still exist on the climate drivers of past and present glacier changes across scales. Here, we analyse continuous hourly climate station data from a glacierized elevation (Pyramid station, Mount Everest) since 1994 together with other ground observations and climate reanalysis. We show that a decrease in maximum air temperature and precipitation occurred during the last three decades at Pyramid in response to global warming. Reanalysis data suggest a broader occurrence of this effect in the glacierized areas of the Himalaya. We hypothesize that the counterintuitive cooling is caused by enhanced sensible heat exchange and the associated increase in glacier katabatic wind, which draws cool air downward from higher elevations. The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and negatively affecting glacier mass balance. This local cooling may have partially preserved glaciers from melting and could help protect the periglacial environment.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01331-y
The maximum temperature trend may be cooling at -0.26C per decade at some stations, according to the study.
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Evolution of the world fuel intensities
by S. Furfari, Dec 15, 2023 in ScienceClimatEnergie
A benchmark that explains why green NGOs want to promote energy sobriety
The fashion for saving energy, which assumes that human behaviour can compensate for the inelasticity of energy demand, is not new. Only the name is. In 1924, when US President Calvin Coolidge proposed saving oil because he had been told that reserves would soon be exhausted, he devised a strategy called energy conservation. Though compassionate and generous, these methods failed to reverse the continuing growth in energy demand. Energy consumption, and oil consumption in particular, continues to rise as the world’s population grows and more people need to eat and work, i.e. consume energy. It is the task of industry and engineers to make processes and products more efficient. It has always been an ongoing quest. The Romans used massive stones to build their bridges, creating amazing monuments. Today, a similar function is performed with much lighter materials. Efficiency is normal behaviour in human activities, including the production, conversion and consumption of energy.
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Saudi Oil Minister Praises UN Climate Agreement, Says It Won’t Slow Their Oil Sales
by N. Pope, Dec 14, 2023 in WUWT
The Saudi Arabian energy minister said Wednesday that the new United Nations (UN) green energy transition pledge will not diminish the country’s ability to sell fossil fuels, according to Al Arabiya, a Saudi Arabian news outlet.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the landmark international pledge to transition away from fossil fuels will not affect Saudi Arabian crude oil sales, according to Al Arabiya. The UN hailed the agreement as “the beginning of the end” for fossil fuels, but Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, does not seem especially concerned that the pledge spells doom for the country’s economic lifeblood.
Nearly 200 countries, including the U.S., signed onto the energy transition pledge on Wednesday, just before the annual UN climate summit adjourned.
“The pharaoh methodology of dictating things has been buried, and so people are free in their choices,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the oil minister, told Al Arabiya in an interview. He also said explicitly that the COP28 pledge would not hurt the country’s ability to sell crude oil. (RELATED: Biden To Visit Saudi Arabia After Once Vowing To Make Them A ‘Pariah’ During 2019 Debate)
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Matt Ridley: Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for the gulf between what world leaders preach at Cop28 and how much they still rely on fossil fuels
by P. Homewood, Dec 1,2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
As for predictable, do they take us for fools? After 27 previous Cop conferences we knew how this pantomime in Dubai would go.
Breakthrough! Deep into their umpteenth sleepless night of hard bargaining, the delegates at the Cop28 meeting in Dubai managed to upgrade a verb in their final deal.
Instead of saying nations ‘could’ take action, the agreement ‘calls on’ them to take action. Incredible! Cue rapturous applause and a standing ovation as representatives from 197 countries approved the historic ‘UAE Consensus’ on climate change.
‘There’s stronger verb forms but I think it does send a strong signal nonetheless,’ crowed a delegate from the World Resources Institute.
This verb miracle — alongside language about ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems [electricity, heating, transport and industry] in a just, orderly and equitable manner’ — is as futile as it was predictable. It’s futile because it will lead to the cancellation of precisely zero coal-fired power stations or oil-exploration plans.
China and India, despite spouting the Cop catechism, are between them approving the equivalent of a new coal plant every two or three days.
In America, which led calls to transition away from fossil fuels, oil and gas production has never been higher: it now produces far more oil than Saudi Arabia. Brazil — while demanding the phasing out of fossil fuels — plans to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2030.
Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for this gap between preaching and practice.
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In the year 2000, according to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, 84 per cent of the world’s primary energy came from fossil fuels. Last year, after 23 years of transitioning away from fossil fuels — and 27 interminable Cop conferences since 1995 — that number was… 82 per cent. At this rate it will take us till the year 3909AD to give up fossil fuels. No wonder a large chunk of the population thinks these talks are futile nonsense