Ehrlich, a Stanford University entomologist, is most infamous for his 1968 doom-mongering tome, The Population Bomb.
In the tradition of Thomas Malthus, the prologue begins with the following warning:
‘The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date, nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.’
In reality, since The Population Bomb was published, rates of starvation have fallen off a cliff, while the world’s population has doubled.
Ronald Bailey, the science correspondent at Reason magazine, notes that the global crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 people) fell ‘from 12.5 in 1968 to seven in 2019, before ticking up to eight in the pandemic year of 2020’.
Each year, we invite Net Zero Watch readers to enter our annual Global Temperature Prediction Competition, in which we try to outdo the Met Office for the accuracy of our soothsaying.
For 2022, the Met Office predicted an average of between 0.97 and 1.21°C (midpoint 1.09°C) above pre-industrial temperatures for the HadCRUT5 index. However, Net Zero Watch readers, as is their wont, went slightly lower, with the median prediction coming in at 1.00°C, and the mode at 1.03°C. This is all shown in the graph below, alongside the correct value, just announced by the Met Office, of 1.16°C.
As you can see, none of our competition entrants got the right answer. There were three people just above, and three more just below. We’ll put all six names into a hat to pick a winner. We’ll be in contact shortly.
If you’d like to enter the 2023 competition, now is your chance!
As always, the prize is a bottle of hooch of your choice, and a book from the GWPF or Net Zero Watch publication lists.
The Met Office reckons on a relatively sharp warming, suggesting HadCRUT5 will come in at between 1.08 and 1.32°C above pre-industrial (with a central estimate of 1.20°C). That’s 0.04°C above last year’s outturn, which doesn’t seem unreasonable, assuming we come out of the La Nina conditions that prevailed in 2022.
To enter, click here (opens a new site). Good luck!
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse