Archives par mot-clé : Europe

climate-debate

New Studies: Europe Is No Warmer Today Than It Was During Medieval Times

by K. Richard, April 13, 2020 in NoTricksZone

Two new papers use tree ring proxy evidence to suggest modern European temperatures are neither unusual nor higher than they were during the Medieval Warm Period.

Esper et al. (2020) have produced a new temperature reconstruction for Southern Europe to complement past reconstructions for Northern and Central Europe.

They find “the warmest 30-year period since 730 CE occurred during high Medieval times (876–905 CE=+0.78 °C w.r.t. 1961–1990) and has been slightly warmer than the recent period from 1985–2014 (+0.71 °C)“.

The proxy evidence and instrumental record also show there has been no obvious net warming in Southern Europe since the 1940s.

Past reconstructions for Northern and Central Europe also show no unusual warming has occurred over the last century, with as-warm or warmer temperatures during the 1940s.

Ljungqvist et al., 2020  cite tree ring temperature studies from Scandinavia, Scotland, Continental Europe, and the Pyrenees that also show the 1930s and 1940s were as-warm or warmer than recent decades.

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climate-debate

Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

by P. Homewood, April 3; 2020 in NotaLotofPeoppleKnowThat

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT.

Two points:

1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen

2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for  25% and the US only 15% of that total.

I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.

Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.

I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:

Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas when it comes to the planetary weather and climate. Meteorologist look at “saturation mixing ratios” which show a correlation of water vapor to temperature. Basically the colder and drier the air mass, the more the introduction of water vapor will lead higher temperatures, there is no place like the arctic to prove this is the case. The cyclically warmed oceans have put more water vapor (and CO2) into the air. When Super El Niño’s go off, the immense amounts dispersed lead to a step up of the temperature. The colder regions leading the way as will be opined on below.

climate-debate

EUROPE’S BIG SPRING FREEZE — ARCTIC BLAST TO GRIP THE CONTINENT DELIVERING SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND RARE APRIL SNOW

by Cap Allon, March 27, 2020 in Electroverse

Latest GFS runs are forecasting a truly frosty and snowy next 7+ days for the majority of Europe, as winter continues to encroach ever-further into spring — a phenomenon long-predicted by those who study the Sun’s impact on climate.

Beginning this weekend, brutal Arctic cold will engulf practically ALL of Europe sinking temperatures some 16C below-the-seasonal-average for many:

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…and there’s plenty more where that came from.

GFS runs are predicting rare April snow accumulating during the next 14-or-so days, particularly in Norway, Sweden, NE Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, the Balkans, Italy, the Alps, Spain, and even the UK (also, note the substantial falls in Eastern Turkey, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan):

 

Past civilizations shown to peak during times of warmth (Grand Solar Maximums), and then almost-instantly collapse during the subsequent & sharp cool-downs (Grand Solar Minimums).

And these COLD TIMES are returning, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Even NASA agrees, in part at least, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) revealing it will be “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

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climate-debate

North Atlantic Oscillation

by P. Homewood, March 19, in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

If you had not noticed (!), it has been a mild and wet start to the year here in the UK, and also across in NW Europe.

No doubt this will be linked to global warming in due course, but in fact it is simply weather, as the CET chart below proves:

Since the year started, temperatures have consistently been within the normal band. In other the sort of temperatures commonly seen at this time of year.

However, they have also been consistently in the top half of that band, rather than being spread between cold and warm, as would happen most years.

The reason for the weather we have had is, of course, the jet stream, or more precisely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has been strongly and stubbornly positive all winter.

The Norwegian Centre for Climate Research CICERO spotted this mild weather coming back in December, and commented on 6th January:

The unusual warm temperatures this winter and forecasts indicating milder winter conditions for January, February and March in Europe are partly due to an atmospheric circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. This atmospheric circulation pattern explains well the weather we get in Europe, especially in winter.

https://cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/nyheter/unseasonal-temperatures-for-norway#

 

 

Our own Met Office explains the NAO phenomenon:

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climate-debate

Mille milliards pour atteindre la neutralité carbone ?

by Samuel Furfari, 11 février 2020 in L’Echo

On perçoit que cette résolution est la prémisse qui va permettre d’amplifier les politiques keynésiennes en vue de relancer une économie européenne poussive par les dépenses publiques, c’est-à-dire in fine par la levée de nouvelles taxes, qu’elles soient appelées ” carbone ” ou autrement.

La majorité du parlement européen (les partis social-chrétien, socialiste et écologiste) a adopté le 15 janvier 2020 le pacte vert pour l’Europe, une résolution en 120 points qui vise la neutralité carbone d’ici 2050. Ils auraient d’ailleurs pu appeler cette résolution “transition juste” puisque cette expression s’y retrouve 15 fois. Qui peut s’opposer à quelque chose de juste? On peut observer que d’après cette majorité parlementaire, il n’y aura pas de justice sans financement.

Ces députés européens sont en faveur d’un plan d’investissement durable ambitieux pour parvenir à la “transition juste”. On retrouve d’ailleurs 49 fois les mots ” financement ” et ses dérivés. Or les critères de Maastricht ne permettent pas aux États membres de dépenser de manière inconsidérée l’argent qu’ils n’ont pas. On perçoit que cette résolution est la prémisse qui va permettre d’amplifier les politiques keynésiennes en vue de relancer une économie européenne poussive par les dépenses publiques, c’est-à-dire in fine par la levée de nouvelles taxes, qu’elles soient appelées “carbone” ou autrement. Pour preuve, cette résolution “se félicite de la proposition prévue d’une révision de la directive sur la taxation de l’énergie”.

La Commission européenne propose un plan sur dix ans visant à accélérer la transition climatique de l’Europe, plan financé à hauteur de mille milliards, tout en reconnaissant que c’est insuffisant. “Mille milliards de mille sabords”, aurait sans doute juré le capitaine Haddock. Mille milliards c’est ce qu’on appelle un “trillion” : c’est 1 000.000.000.000 euros. Oui, un trillion c’est énormément d’argent.

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energy and fields

L’avenir incertain de l’éolien terrestre européen

by JP Schaeken Willemaers, 20 décembre 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie

L’avenir de l’éolien terrestre des pays européens s’inscrit dans le cadre de la politique climatique de l’UE.

La concrétisation d’une politique énergétique européenne commune a du mal à voir le jour en raison, notamment, de la diversité des approches et des intérêts des Etats-membres.
Ceci n’a pas empêché la Commission européenne de présenter, en 2011, sa feuille de route pour l’énergie (Roadmap 2050), affichant ainsi sa volonté de “décarboner” de l’économie.
A l’origine, cet objectif était soumis à la condition que d’autres régions du monde prennent également l’initiative d’un tel effort. Depuis lors, l’UE se dit prête, le cas échéant, à s’engager seule dans cette aventure. En fait, elle s’est focalisée sur une réduction drastique des émissions des gaz à effet de serre (GES), à tout prix, sans se préoccuper de considérations économiques et sociales.
Le secteur électrique a été ciblé en premier lieu alors qu’il ne représente que 22% de la consommation totale d’énergie de l’UE.
La nouvelle Commission souhaite être encore plus ambitieuse que la précédente, portant la diminution des émissions de GES à 50/55% au lieu de 40% à l’horizon 2030 par rapport à 1990, négligeant ainsi les difficultés de certains Etats-membres, dont l’Allemagne, d’atteindre ne fût-ce que le niveau des 40% précités.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Revolt brewing against EU’s ‘unrealistic’ climate goals

by Frédéric Simon, December 5, 2019 in EurActiv

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has threatened to veto Europe’s goal of becoming the first climate-neutral continent in the world by 2050, adding his voice to a growing chorus of discontent as EU leaders prepare for heated climate discussions at a summit in Brussels next week.

In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Babiš said, however, he could still change his mind in exchange for higher financial support from the EU and better investment conditions for nuclear energy.

Private investors are reluctant to pour money into new nuclear power plants, which face escalating costs and growing competition from cheap renewables. New plants are dependent on state support, which require prior approval by the European Commission’s powerful competition department.

“Nuclear plants construction may require changes in the state aid rules,” Babiš wrote in the letter, according to Czech daily Hospodářské noviny, a media partner of EURACTIV.cz.

Funding for new nuclear plants is also an issue for Poland, one of the last remaining EU countries opposed to the bloc’s proposed climate neutrality objective for 2050. At the last EU summit in October, Warsaw called for “significantly larger” amounts of funding under the EU’s next long-term budget before signing up to the 2050 goal.

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better to know...?, energy and fields

COP25 : LA PLACE DU NUCLÉAIRE DANS LA TRANSITION ÉNERGÉTIQUE MONDIALE

by l’EnerGeek, 3 décembre 2019

Lundi 2 décembre, la COP25 s’ouvre dans un climat tendu à Madrid. Le 28 novembre dernier, le Parlement Européen a décrété l’urgence climatique. Le Parlement appelle la COP25 à “prendre des mesures audacieuses et ambitieuses”. Et la plus ambitieuse de toutes pourrait être une résolution votée en faveur de l’énergie nucléaire. Car avec la mise en place d’un nouveau mix électrique mondial, cette énergie bas carbone est plus que jamais en bonne position pour devenir le moteur de la transition énergétique.

Le Parlement Européen soutient le nucléaire

Le texte du Parlement Européen revient sur l’importance de l’énergie nucléaire dans le cadre de la transition énergétique et estime que “l’énergie nucléaire peut jouer un rôle dans la réalisation des objectifs climatiques, car elle n’émet pas de gaz à effet de serre et peut également assurer une part significative de la production d’électricité en Europe ; considère néanmoins que, en raison des déchets qu’elle génère, cette énergie nécessite une stratégie à moyen et long terme prenant en compte les avancées technologiques (laser, fusion, etc.) visant à améliorer la durabilité de l’ensemble du secteur”

Valérie Faudon, de la Société Française d’énergie nucléaire (SFEN), François Momboisse, Tristan Kamin et autres experts, consultants ou ingénieurs se sont félicités sur les réseaux sociaux de cette prise de position estimant que le nucléaire est “une solution efficace pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique, aux côtés des autres énergies bas carbone.” A l’inverse, Michèle Rivasi, députée européenne, a par exemple expliqué par le biais d’un tweet pourquoi elle a voté contre cette résolution :

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climate-debate

N. Hemisphere In Hypothermia! Widespread Early Winter…”Historic Snowstorms”…”Record Books Rewritten”

by P. Gosselin, November 13, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Winter has not even officially arrived, but already large areas of the northern hemisphere are seeing “historic snowfalls”, frigid temperatures and even avalanche alarms.

The Northern Hemisphere has certainly caught a major cold, one certainly not caused by the human CO2 virus. Instead of fever, parts of the northern hemisphere are in hypothermia!

Alarmists, media desperate

Though global warming scientists will never admit it, they are really surprised and stunned. All that is left for them is to make up some cockamamie warming-causes-cold explanations and hope there are enough severely stupid among the media and masses to believe it.

“United States — Rewrite the Record Books”

Beginning in North America, “sub-zero temperatures are now blasting” millions of Americans following “the three historic snowstorms which buried parts of the U.S. last month,” reports weather site electroverse.net here.

Electroverse writes that “lows throughout the week will be more like January temperatures” with readings below zero for many U.S. states and “temps down into the teens are even forecast as far south as Texas.” Yesterday, 97 records toppled.

“It’s a big deal,” Electroverse writes in its headline.

Solar activity suspected

It’s not the sort of thing we are supposed to be expecting from a “warming planet”.  Some climate experts blame natural factors, like solar activity, for the cold, and that these warnings have long been known since the sun has entered a new period of calm.

Freeze watches and warnings also extend as far south as Florida. And it’s only early November. And don’t expect to see many FFF activists to show up at rallies protesting hot weather any time soon.

Polar Bear Science site here also reports that the Hudson Bay in Canada has started freezing up earlier than normal three years in a row!

Europe starting to get clobbered by snow, 2m in Alps

Meanwhile cold has also spread across Europe, though not quite as brutal as what we’ve been seeing across North America.

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climate-debate, to keep an eye on...

COLDEST OCTOBER 6 EVER RECORDED IN THE NETHERLANDS — ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR ON THE WAY FOR EUROPE

by Cap Allon, October 7, 2019 in Electroverse

 

Bone chilling cold descended into Europe over the weekend, exactly as forecast by the GFS. And the ‘Polar Invasion’ will continue to seize practically ALL of the continent throughout the week, sinking temps as much as 20C below average, with only far Western regions spared.

This past Sunday went down as the coldest October 6th ever recorded in ALL of Holland, in record books dating back to 1901 (solar minimum of cycle 13).

The country’s daily high, measured at the national weather station in De Bilt, climbed to just 9.6C (49F), which busted the previous record low of 10.1C (50F) set back in 1936 (just exiting solar min of cycle 16).

The weekend’s chill was thanks to a descending Arctic air mass which brought icy easterly winds, thick cloud cover and heavy rain. This pattern will run for rest of the week, and is expected to see further record lows temps tumble.

While across Europe the story is the same, too — all-time cold records will likely tumble in Central, Southern and Eastern parts, particularly during the first half of the week, with Italy, the Ukraine, Romania, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria and southern Poland on course to be worst hit:

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climate-debate

The Gestalt of Heat Waves

by Clyde Spencer, Sep. 6, 2019 in WUWT

Abstract

Tmax and Tmin time-series are examined to look for historical, empirical evidence to support the claim that heat waves will become more frequent, of longer duration, and with higher temperatures than in the past. The two primary parameters examined are the coefficient of variation and the difference between Tmax and Tmin. There have been periods in the past when heat waves were more common. However, for nearly the last 30 years, there has been a reversal of the correlation of increasing CO2 concentration with the Tmax coefficient of variation. The reversal in differences in Tmax and Tmin indicate something notable happened around 1990.

Introduction

There was much in the press this Summer about the ‘global’ heat waves, particularly in France and Greenland. For an example of some of the pronouncements, see here. The predictions are that we should expect to see heat waves that are more frequent and more severe because of Anthropogenic Global Warming, now more commonly called “Climate Change.” The basis for the claim is unvalidated Global Climate Models, which are generally accepted to be running to warm. The simplistic rationale is that as the nights cool less, it takes less heating the next day to reach unusually high temperatures. Unfortunately, were that true, that would lead one to conclude that heat waves should never stop.

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Fig. 1. U.S. Annual Heat Wave Index, 1895-2015

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures

If the predictions of worse future heat waves were valid, one might expect to be able to discern a change occurring already, inasmuch as it is commonly accepted that Earth has been warming at least since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

climate-debate

Historical European Sea Level Records

by Kip Hansen, Sep. 6, 2019 in WUWT

I have been working on another sea level related essay and in the process stumbled upon a paper published in 1990 by thePermanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).  The title is: “On The Availability Of  European Mean Sea Level Data  by P.L. Woodworth, N.E. Spencer and G. Alcock  (1990)”,  The paper is listed on the PSMSL page of “Publications Relevant to the PSMSL and GLOSS” but is not available there.  [ a  .pdf is available here  courtesy of the library at the University of New Brunswick, Canada ].

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climate-debate

Ice Box July: Unusual Cold, Surface Frost Sweep Across Central Europe!

by P. Homewood, July 10, 2019 in NotALotOfPeopleKnowThat

No Tricks Zone has the latest on the coldwave gripping much of Northern Europe. Following a new record low for July set in Lower Saxony last week, there are unconfirmed reports of a new record July low for the whole of the Netherlands:
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From No Tricks Zone:

Where have all the globe-trotting climate ambulance chasers gone? Well, they’re nowhere to be found in Europe nowadays.

The reason is the unusual cold that has swept across a large swath of the continent and which has sent temperatures plummeting to near freezing.

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Icebox July: Parts of Central Europe saw ground surface frost yesterday morning. Source: Wetteronline.de

Yesterday morning ground frost hit parts of Belgium, Holland, Germany and the Czech Republic, as the above chart shows. Unsurprisingly, the media have been curiously silent about it.

Record Dutch July low

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renewable energy

Climate change puts pressure on Europe’s energy system

by European Environment Agency, June 18, 2019

All parts of Europe’s energy system, from availability of energy sources to energy consumption, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, according to a European Environment Agency report, published today. To secure reliable supply of clean energy, Europe’s energy system needs to adapt and become more climate resilient, the report states.

The EEA assessment ‘Adaptation challenges and opportunities for the European energy system’ analyses the needs for climate change adaptation and climate resilience in Europe’s energy system now and in the future. This assessment supports the clean energy transition, which involves a massive expansion of renewable energy sources, many of which are sensitive to climate factors.

The new assessment warns that climate change and extreme weather events increasingly affect all parts of the European energy system. The most important changes include increases in mean and extreme air and water temperatures, and changes in water availability, extreme climate‑related events, and coastal and marine hazards. These changes will affect the availability of primary energy sources — especially renewable energy sources — as well as the transformation, transmission, distribution and storage of energy, and energy demand.

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climate-debate, press and newspapers

Summit leak reveals EU rift on climate change

by Frédéric Simon, March 21, 2019 in Euractiv

Confidential documents prepared in advance of a two-day EU summit in Brussels have exposed an East-West divide in Europe on climate change, with Germany siding with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in their refusal to commit to climate neutrality by 2050.

The leaked documents, seen by EURACTIV, show the amendments proposed by each country in preparation for the final statement of the leaders summit that opens in Brussels on Thursday (21 March).

And when it comes to climate action, the papers reveal a growing rift between two distinct groups of countries.

On the one hand, France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Finland, Sweden and Denmark have all backed a European Commission plan to decarbonise the EU by 2050, linking it specifically to the Paris Agreement objective of keeping global warming below 1.5°C.

A French proposal, for instance, underlines that Europe should strive for climate neutrality “by 2050, in line with the 1.5 degree objective of the Paris Agreement”.

It then calls on EU member states “to prepare a discussion in the European Council in June to define the announcements of the EU at the September Climate Summit in New York”. Both amendments were rejected in the final draft.

On the other hand, Germany, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have refused to specifically link EU climate action with the 1.5°C objective. They also oppose any time-bound commitment to the EU’s climate neutrality objective, deleting any reference to 2050 for reaching that goal.

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better to know...?

Marché européen du carbone : stop ou encore

by Jean-Pierre Schaeken, 7 décembre 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie

Le système d’échange de quotas d’émission de l’UE,connu sous l’acronyme SEQE-EU ou en anglais  EU ETS, est instrument utilisé pour réduire les émissions de Gaz à Effet de Serre (GES) ou de CO2 pour faire court.  Il repose sur un principe de plafonnement et d’échange des droits d’émission. Il a été adopté par la Commission Environnement du Parlement européen, le 13 octobre 2003.

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climate-debate

Merkel s’oppose aux nouveaux objectifs climatiques de l’UE, Greenpeace ne décolère pas

by Claire Stam, 31 août 2018 in Euratciv/LaTribuneGenève

Alors qu’elle avoue la part de responsabilité de l’Allemagne dans le changement climatique, et carrément au passage, l’échec de la transition énergétique dans son pays, Angela Merkel s’est pourtant exprimée à la télé pour s’opposer aux objectifs climatiques plus ambitieux proposés par l’Union européenne qui cherche à trouver une solution face à un changement climatique de plus en plus rapide. Un article de notre partenaire Euractiv.

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climate-debate

Media Claims Of More Heat Waves Refuted By Multiple Recent Studies, Longterm Data

by Dr. S. Lüning and Prof. F. Vahrenholt, August 31, 2018 in NoTricksZone

The playbook is well-known: After a drought, heat wave or flood occurs, journalists and climate alarmists fall all over themselves in the race to issue shrill warnings that this is only the beginning and that it is known that evil climate change is behind it.

This summer of 2018 we experienced again a Central European heat wave. However the usual alarmists failed again to provide any solid statistics on the frequency of heat waves during the last 100 and 1000 years.

Here we are glad to help out by presenting the latest results on heat wave trend in North America. Let’s begin with a spring heat wave in the USA in 2012 which was examined by Dole & Hoerling (2014) within a long-term context. The authors see a purely natural cause behind the unusual heat:

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better to know...?, energy and fields

Evaluation du coût de blackout dans l’Union Européenne

by Ernest Mund, 13 aoüt 2018, in ScienceClimatEnergie

La fourniture d’électricité est essentielle au développement économique d’une nation et à son harmonie politique et sociale. Les profondes mutations subies actuellement par le système électrique dans lequel la part des énergies renouvelables intermittentes ne cesse d’augmenter, présentent des risques pour cette fourniture. Il importe d’en assurer la sécurité. Evaluer le coût d’un blackout est donc un élément d’information essentiel, qui devrait être pris en compte dans toute décision future d’investissement en matière de génération de puissance.

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climate-debate

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Skyrockets…Atlantic Surface Cold Surprises Experts

by P. Gosselin, August 3, 2018 in NoTricksZone

Despite all the hysterical “heat wave” and drought reports being put out to the public by the media, the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is in fact not at all that much warmer than the mean since 2000.

According to Dr. Ryan Maue, northern hemisphere temperature anomaly was zero on July 30 and the northern hemisphere land surface anomaly was actually -0.20°C.

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climate and geology, climate-debate

Study: abrupt shifts occurred in the ancient European climate

by A. Watts, July 23, 2018 in WUWT and NatureCommunications

From the University of Helsinki and the “no SUV’s needed” department comes this study which suggests big cold snaps occurred right in the middle of the warm Eemian period. My only concern is perhaps they over-rely on climate models. For reference (and not part of the study) here’s the Eemian graph in context. Data sources listed int he graph.

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climate-debate, press and newspapers

Flooding really was worse in the old days

by Oliver Moody, May 29, 2018 in TheNYTimes

Since the 1950s the number of lives and the amount of money lost to floods have declined, despite little change to the frequency of catastrophic floods, according to the first comprehensive study of European historical records.

Academics at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands found that the number of flood deaths across Europe has been falling by about 5 per cent a year for the past six decades. Financial losses to flooding have declined by 2 per cent a year, according to their paper in Nature Communications.

energy and fields, to keep an eye on...

US gas lobby chief: A lot of LNG can come to Europe through Poland

by Pavol Szalai, May 21, 2018 in Euractiv

There is a strong possibility that Poland will build a floating Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Gdańsk, according to Fred H. Hutchison, who says “a lot of gas” can come to Central European markets this way.

Fred H. Hutchison is president and CEO of LNG Allies, an industry association working to expedite and maximise US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In Bratislava, Hutchinson gave a speech at the Energy Committee of the American Chamber of Commerce.

Imports of natural gas from Russia have increased over the years and represented 34% of EU’s supply in 2016 according to ACER. Given the cheap price of Russian gas, do you see a window of opportunity for Amercian LNG on the European market?

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