better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate Alarmists’ New Normal: Catastrophizing Every Weather Event

by Dr. M.  Wielicki, Oct 2, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Catastrophizing the weather…

“Catastrophizing” the weather refers to the exaggerated portrayal or emphasis on the severity, frequency, or implications of weather events beyond what scientific data and historical context might suggest.

In essence, it involves making a weather event seem more disastrous or exceptional than it truly is. [emphasis, links added]

Over time, consistent exaggeration can erode public trust in weather forecasts and warnings. If people believe that threats are frequently overblown, they may become complacent and fail to take necessary precautions during genuinely severe events.

If authorities act on exaggerated weather forecasts, it could lead to the unnecessary allocation of resources, diverting them from regions or times where they might be genuinely needed.

The constant exposure to exaggerated disaster threats can induce unnecessary fear and anxiety among the public, potentially affecting mental well-being.

If every weather event is portrayed as a catastrophe, it becomes challenging for the public to discern which events pose genuine threats. This can dilute the urgency of actual severe weather warnings.

In the context of climate change, while it’s important to communicate the real risks associated with a warming planet, it’s equally essential to avoid undue alarmism.

Balanced, accurate communication ensures that the public remains informed, however, that is not what we commonly see.

For example, the recent rains in NYC have been noted as evidence of significant climatic shifts.

Meet The Alarmists:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

How ‘Preapproved Narratives’ Have Corrupted Science

by A. Finley, Oct 2, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Scientists were aghast last month when Patrick Brown, climate director at the Breakthrough Institute in Berkeley, Calif., acknowledged that he’d censored one of his studies to increase his odds of getting published.

Credit to him for being honest about something his peers also do but are loath to admit. [emphasis, links added]

In an essay for the Free Press, Mr. Brown explained that he omitted “key aspects other than climate change” from a paper on California wildfires because such details would “dilute the story that prestigious journals like Nature and its rival, Science, want to tell.”

Editors of scientific journals, he wrote, “have made it abundantly clear, both by what they publish and what they reject, that they want climate papers that support certain preapproved narratives.”

Nature’s editor, Magdalena Skipper, denied that the journal has “a preferred narrative.” No doubt the editors at the New York Times and ProPublica would say the same of their own pages.

Mr. Brown’s criticisms aren’t new. In 2005 Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis wrote an essay titled “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.”

He contended that scientists “may be prejudiced purely because of their belief in a scientific theory or commitment to their own findings.”

“The greater the financial and other interests and prejudices in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true,” Dr. Ioannidis argued.

“Many otherwise seemingly independent, university-based studies may be conducted for no other reason than to give physicians and researchers qualifications for promotion or tenure.”

In addition, many scientists use the peer-review process to suppress findings that challenge their own beliefs, which perpetuates “false dogma.”

As Dr. Ioannidis explained, the more scientists there are in a field, the more competition there is to get published and the more likely they are to produce “impressive ‘positive’ results” and “extreme research claims.” …snip…

The peer-review process is supposed to flag problems in studies that get submitted to journals. But as Dr. Ioannidis explained in a Sept. 22 JAMA editorial, the process is failing:

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climate-debate

New Study: ‘Atmospheric CO2 Is Not The Cause Of Climate Change’ … The Next Glaciation Has Begun

by K. Richard, Sep 28, 2023 in NoTricksZone

New research published in the MDPI journal atmosphere by Dr. Stuart A. Harris asserts past and modern climate changes are natural and not driven by variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Some key points from the paper include:

• Past and modern climate change is driven by solar cycle (Milankovitch) variations and their affect on ocean circulation and heat transport.

• Throughout the last hundreds of thousands of years, temperature changes precede the lagging changes in CO2.

• The UN IPCC position that atmospheric CO2 is the cause of the warming since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is only an assumption that is “not consistent with studies involving changes in temperature in rural areas of the northern [NH] hemisphere.”

• The natural 23 thousand year (23 ka) Milankovitch cycle has begun to reduce insolation in the NH “starting in 2020,” and this “heralds the start of the next glaciation.”

• CO2 is essential for life on Earth (photosynthesis), and a reduction in CO2 would be harmful to the biosphere. On the other hand, there “seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth.”

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Critical Examination of Hurricane Intensification Predictions

by J. Steele, Oct 1, 2023 in WUWT

Why climate models not yet worth their salt!

As all hurricane researchers lament, model predictions of when and where hurricanes will intensify, have not improved much in the past 20 years. As recently as the early 2010s, weather model forecasts failed to predict 88 percent of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. Nonetheless National Public Radio (NPR) has ranted that hurricanes are “intensifying more quickly, turning from less-serious storms to very strong ones in hours or days. Superheated ocean waters hold a lot of extra energy, and a growing storm can draw from that enormous pool.” But such “superheated water” is not widespread as rising CO2 narratives suggest, but found only in very limited regions and usually associated with “barrier layers”.

Hurricanes intensify as they draw “superheated” subsurface waters  of 65.5°F or higher. However, when a hurricane’s suction pulls up cooler subsurface waters, the hurricane weakens. This negative feedback naturally limits the intensity of all hurricanes. In the upper panel of the attached graphic, Arnand (2023) illustrates where thin barrier layer exists, hurricane intensity hovers around Category 1. In contrast, where thick barrier layers form, cooler deep waters are prevented from reaching the surface, and instead allow superheated sub-surface waters to cause rapid intensification.

Denser fluids don’t naturally rise above less dense fluids! Barrier layer formation happens wherever freshwater overlays dense salty waters. Although solar heating would normally make subsurface waters less dense and rise to the surface, layers with higher saltiness makes the water more dense which inhibits warm convection. That traps and intensifies the subsurface heat, enabling hurricanes to intensify to Category 5.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

THE TRUTH ABOUT WEATHER EXTREMES What the Past Tells Us

by Alexander, Sep 2023 , in GWPF

Executive summary

This report refutes the popular but mistaken belief that today’s weather extremes are more common and more intense because of climate change, by examining the history of extreme weather events over the past century or so. Drawing on newspaper archives, the report presents multiple examples of past extremes that matched or exceeded anything experienced in the present-day world. That so many people are unaware of this shows that collective memories of extreme weather are short-lived.

Heatwaves of the last few decades pale in comparison to those of the 1930s – a period whose importance is frequently downplayed by the media and environmental activists. The evidence shows that the record heat of the 1930s was not confined to the US Dust Bowl, but extended throughout much of North America, as well as other countries such as France, India and Australia.

Major floods today are no more common nor deadly or disruptive than any of the thousands of floods in the past, despite heavier precipitation in a warming world (which has increased flash flooding). Many of the world’s countries regularly experience major floods, especially China, India and Pakistan.

Severe droughts have been a continuing feature of the earth’s climate for millennia, despite the brouhaha in the mainstream media over the extended drought in Europe during the summer of 2022. Not only was the European drought not unprecedented, but there have been numerous longer and drier droughts throughout history, including during the past century.

Hurricanes overall actually show a decreasing trend around the globe, and the frequency of landfalling hurricanes has not changed for at least 50 years. The deadliest US hurricane in record- ed history, which killed an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people, struck Galveston, Texas over 100 years ago in 1900.

Likewise, there is no evidence that climate change is causing tornadoes to become more frequent and stronger. The annual number of strong (EF3 or greater) US tornadoes has in fact declined dramatically over the last 72 years, and there are ample examples of past tornadoes just as or more violent and deadly than today’s.

Wildfires are not increasing either. On the contrary, the area burned annually is diminishing in most countries. Although wildfires can be exacerbated by other weather extremes such as heatwaves and droughts, those extremes are not on the rise as stated above.

The perception that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity is primarily a consequence of modern technology – the Internet and smart phones – which have revolutionised communication and made us much more aware of such disasters than we were 50 or 100 years ago. The misperception has only been amplified by the mainstream media, eager to promote the latest climate scare. And as psychologists know, constant repetition of a false belief can, over time, create the illusion of truth. But history tells a different story.

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climate-debate

New Paper: Objective Measurements Show CO2’s Effect On Warming Not As Large As Modeled

by Dr R. Spencer, Sep 29, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

A new research study from The University of Alabama in Huntsville, a part of the University of Alabama System, addresses a central question of climate change research: how much warming can be expected from adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through fossil fuel burning and other activities as standards of living increase around the world? [emphasis, links added]

UAH Earth System Science Center Research Scientist Dr. Roy Spencer and UAH Earth System Science Center Director and Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John R. Christy have spent 10 years developing a one-dimensional climate model to answer this elusive question.

Their latest research study was published in the September 2023 issue of Theoretical and Applied Climatologyjournal titled: “Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021.”

Spencer and Christy’s climate model, based upon objective measured data, found carbon dioxide does not have as big of an effect on the warming of the atmosphere when compared with other climate models.

“For over 30 years, dozens of highly sophisticated, computerized climate models based upon theory have been unable to agree on an answer. That’s why we developed our own one-dimensional climate model to provide an answer,” says. Dr. Spencer.

Current climate models range over a factor of three, from 1.8 to 5.6° Celsius, in the amount of warming produced in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

This warming response to doubled carbon dioxide is called “effective climate sensitivity.” Determining its magnitude has remained elusive for decades.

When compared to other current climate models, the research results from Spencer and Christy’s one-dimensional climate model approached the bottom end of the range, 1.9° Celsius.

The lower UAH value indicates that the climate impact of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations is much less [than] that based on other climate models.

“An important assumption of our model, as well as the more complex models used by others, is that all climate change is human-caused,” Spencer states. “If recent warming is partly natural, it would further reduce climate sensitivity.”

What distinguishes this model developed at UAH from others is that it is driven by actual observations of warming, rather than theoretical assumptions about how the climate system responds to increasing greenhouse gases.

The one-dimensional climate model uses a variety of observational datasets of warming between 1970 and 2021 of the deep ocean and land, along with associated uncertainty ranges.

These datasets produced a range of estimates of climate sensitivity based on basic concepts of energy conservation.

“The 52-year period since 1970 is key. It represents the period of most rapid warming, with the highest confidence in the observational data of deep ocean warming,” Spencer states.

The results of Spencer and Christy’s research also showed a period of the most rapid growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

This is due to their climate model accounting for heat storage in deeper layers of land, which other climate models ignore.

A critical advantage of their simple model is that it conserves energy.

“It should be a requirement that any physics-based model of global warming should meet,” Spencer says. “Current computerized climate models continue to have difficulty achieving this aspect.”

The model is simple enough that other scientists can easily adapt it to updated or improved global temperature measurements as they become available.

better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate Emergency Not Supported by Data, Leading Italian Scientists Say

by C. Morrison, Sep 15, 2022 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Four leading Italian scientists have undertaken a major review of historical climate trends and concluded that declaring a ‘climate emergency’ is not supported by the data.

Reviewing data from a wide range of weather phenomena, they say a ‘climate crisis’ of the kind people are becoming alarmed about “is not evident yet”. [bold, links added]

The scientists suggest that rather than burdening our children with anxiety about climate change, we should encourage them to think about issues like energy, food, and health and the challenges in each area, with a more “objective and constructive spirit” and not waste limited resources on “costly and ineffective solutions.”

During the course of their work, the scientists found that rainfall intensity and frequency are stationary in many parts of the world.

Tropical hurricanes and cyclones show little change over the long term, and the same is true of U.S. tornadoes. Other meteorological categories including natural disasters, floods, droughts, and ecosystem productivity show no “clear positive trend of extreme events.”

Regarding ecosystems, the scientists note a considerable “greening” of global plant biomass in recent decades caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Satellite data show “greening” trends over most of the planet, increasing food yields and pushing back deserts.

The four scientists are all highly qualified and include physics adjunct professor Gianluca Alimonti, agro-meteorologist Luigi Mariani, and physics professors Franco Prodi and Renato Angelo Ricci. The last two are signatories to the rapidly growing ‘World Climate Declaration’.

This petition states that there is no climate emergency and calls for climate science to be more scientific. It also calls for the liberation from the “naïve belief in immature climate models.” In the future, it says, “climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science.”

‘Extreme’ weather events attributed by climate models – somehow – to anthropogenic global warming are now the main staple of the climate alarmist industry.

As the Daily Sceptic reported on Monday, Sir David Attenborough used a U.K. Met Office model forecast in the first episode of Frozen Planet II to claim that summer Arctic sea ice could be gone within 12 years.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

17 years of near-zero trend in September sea ice demolishes claim that more CO2 means less sea ice

by Polar Bear Science, Sep  23, 2023

If the hottest year ever can’t precipitate ‘ice-free’ conditions in September, what’s it going to take? Arctic sea ice failed to nose-dive again this year, undoubtedly disappointing expects who have been anticipating a ‘death-spiral’ decline for ages. Arctic sea ice hit its seasonal low sometime around mid-September this year and although the precise value hasn’t been published, the average September ice coverage will likely be about 4.2 mkm2 once it gets announced in early October.

This means we have now had 17 years of a near-zero trend for September sea ice, extending the nearly-flat trend NSIDC sea ice experts acknowledged four years ago. This surely busts a huge hole in the prevailing concept that more atmospheric CO2 causes less summer sea ice. Note that CO2 levels measured in August 2023 were 419.7 parts per million (ppm), compared to 382.2 in August 2007, a rise of 37.5ppm with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice (and vs. 314.2 ppm in 1960). Measured in metric tons, CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels rose from 31.1 billion in 2007 to 37.1 billion in 2021 (last year of data), again with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice.

Background

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better to know...?, climate-debate

New Paper Claims Antarctica Had The ‘Most Intense Heat Wave Ever Recorded’. It Didn’t

by P. Gosselin, Sep 27, 2023 in ClimatChangeDispatch

On September 24th, 2023, Kasha Patel, a writer for The Washington Post (WaPo) created a story that is likely in the top 10 most false and egregious climate scare stories ever published.

Titled, “Scientists found the most intense heat wave ever recorded — in Antarctica,” the story isn’t just false, it is doubly so because the research paper it is based on is also seriously flawed. [emphasis, links added]

In this case, peer review at Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) failed to catch and correct the most basic abuse of the definition of a “heat wave.”

The leading paragraph of the WaPo story said:

In March 2022, temperatures near the eastern coast of Antarctica spiked 70 degrees Fahrenheit (39 degrees Celsius) above normal — making it the most intense recorded heat wave to occur anywhere on Earth, according to a recent study.

At the time, researchers on-site were wearing shorts and some even removed their shirts to bask in the (relative) warmth. Scientists elsewhere said such a high in that region of the world was unthinkable.

WaPo also provided a normal temperature, for reference with some “unbelievability” from the lead author of the paper.

Temperatures in March, marking a change into autumn on the continent, are typically around minus -54 degrees Celsius on the east coast near…Dome C. On March 18, 2022, temperatures peaked to minus -10 degrees Celsius. That’s warmer than even the hottest temperature recorded during the summer months in that region — “that in itself is pretty unbelievable,” said Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington.

First, it is important to point out that the so-called “heat wave” really wasn’t warm at all; the shorts and shirt removal were completely for show, rather than science.

Since most people in the United States use the Fahrenheit temperature scale, which isn’t mentioned at all in the WaPo article citing the actual high temperature recorded, it was easy for reporter Kasha Patel to sneak by the idea that it was actually warm at the time.

-10 Celsius is actually 14 degrees Fahrenheit – which isn’t warm, much less a “heat wave” by any definition. Patel can’t be forgiven for not mentioning this in the article because anyone can get the conversion simply by typing it into Google, like this example.

But that isn’t the worst journalistic violation Patel makes.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Arctic 2023 Refuses To Melt…German Scientists Blame ‘Unusual Weather’

by P. Gosselin, Sep 17, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Sixteen Years Of No Decline

Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent refuses to drop further, surprising and frustrating the alarmist media.

German research vessel Polarstern of the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) is currently underway again in the Arctic where a decrease in sea ice had been expected there, or, probably more accurately said, hoped for. [emphasis, links added]

But this year the minimum Arctic sea ice extent has turned out differently, as Germany’s widely viewed (climate-alarmist) Tagesschau news had to report:

In view of the extreme summer, the question arose in advance: Will the Arctic also see a new negative record in melting ice this year? This time, the Arctic has been spared.

AWI director and expedition leader Antje Boetius tells Tagesschau that an unusual weather phenomenon prevented a record melt of Arctic sea ice this summer.

According to Boetius, a sequence of low-pressure systems has led to an entirely different ice movement. The so-called transpolar drift, which describes the drifting of ice along certain routes, took a different course this year, she said.

Ice from the Siberian region has been held together and compressed instead of drifting out and melting. For the AWI director, this shows that weather phenomena determine the development of sea ice, and that forecasting is more difficult than ever.

The Arctic, with its sea ice and life, has been lucky once again, says the biologist. But things could go the other way. “If we are unlucky, if weather phenomena play unfavorably, we can also be affected by large ice-free parts much sooner than expected,” Boetius adds.”

We notice that when the opposite happens, e.g. heat, storms, or more ice melt, then it’s all because of climate warming. But when it goes the other way, then it’s weather!

climate-debate

Greenland Icecap – 2023

By P. Homewood, Sep 2, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

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As can be seen, the rate of loss in the last decade is similar to the 1930s, 50s and 60s. During the 1970s and 80s, Greenland’s climate grew much colder, and the ice mass loss almost stopped completely.

Significantly the rate of loss now is not accelerating, as you may have assumed from what the media have told you. On the contrary, the rate of loss has been slowing down since 2012.

The average annual loss between 2013 and 2022 was 184 Gt, which equates to 0.51mm sea level rise a year.

In short there is nothing alarming or unprecedented about the tiny amount of ice melt in Greenland.

climate-debate

Highlighting Climate Models’ Inability To Accurately Replicate Recent Climatic States

by Dr M. Wilelicki, AUG 31, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

What is the Holocene Temperature Conundrum?

The Holocene Temperature Conundrum is a debate within the field of climate science regarding the patterns and variations in global temperatures during the Holocene epoch, which began around 11,700 years ago and continues to the present day.

The term refers to a discrepancy between the reconstructed global annual mean temperature and the simulated global annual mean temperature during the Holocene epoch, which spans from about 12,000 years ago to the present. [emphasis, links added]

Traditionally, reconstructions of Holocene temperatures were largely based on indirect data sources such as pollen, ice cores, lake sediments, and ocean sediment cores.

One prominent reconstruction suggested a pattern known as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) – a period between 9,000 to 5,000 years ago when temperatures were warmer than today, followed by a gradual cooling that lasted until the preindustrial era.

This cooling trend was particularly noticeable in the Northern Hemisphere and is the opposite of what would be expected from the effects of retreating ice sheets and rising greenhouse gases, which should cause global warming.

However, in the early 21st century, new reconstructions began to emerge based on a different set of proxies such as tree rings and stalagmites, which seemed to contradict the traditional view.

Instead of showing a gradual cooling over the Holocene, these reconstructions suggested that global temperatures remained relatively stable, or possibly increased slightly during this period, in agreement with the radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases.

The contrasting interpretations of Holocene temperature patterns have sparked intense debate among scientists.

The discrepancies are thought to arise from differences in the geographical coverage of the proxies used, their seasonal biases, and other methodological differences.

Some experts suggest that the traditional view of a cooling trend might be influenced by a bias toward Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures, while others believe the newer reconstructions may underestimate past temperature variability due to various reasons such as the dampening effects of tree rings in capturing long-term trends.

This conundrum highlights the complexities involved in interpreting past climate change and the importance of refining methodologies and expanding datasets for a clearer understanding.

better to know...?, climate-debate

A Round-Up of the BBC’s Climate Howlers of the Past 12 Months

by C. Morrison, Aug 6, 2023 in TheDailySceptic

The annual Paul Homewood review of the BBC’s climate howlers is always an enjoyable read, even for those keen students who follow his investigative work during the year. But with the consensus starting to crumble for the insane Net Zero collectivist project, this latest instalment of Tall Climate Tales from the BBC seems to have attracted a wider audience. Talk TV and the Daily Express have both given extensive coverage to the latest set of BBC bloopers.

How we laughed when Julia Hartley-Brewer read from the list on her TalkTV morning show. Such as the report from the Norfolk village of Happisburgh where “extreme weather linked to climate change” has eroded the soft sand cliff rock. No mention of the finding of the British Geological Society that it is likely the Norfolk cliffs have been “eroding at the present rate for about the last 5,000 years”.

Or the report that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active on record. Nothing of the sort, of course, with Homewood observing that since 1851 there have been 32 years with a higher count of hurricanes. There was also an evidence-free claim in September 2022 on the BBC Verify that hurricanes were getting more powerful. The U.S. weather service NOAA states in its latest review that “there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity”.

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climate-debate

Monday Mirthiness – Mike Mann’s Hockey Team ‘will keep those papers out somehow’

by A. Watts, Aug 28, 2023 in WUWT

Remember the famous quote from the head of the UK Climate Research Unit, Dr. Phil Jones that was laid bare in ClimateGate?

…I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin [Trenberth] and I will keep them out somehow, even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!

Dr. Phil Jones – ClimateGate emails

These guys never learn. Josh writes on Twitter:

Mikey’ The Trick’ Mann at work…Another story about ‘scientists’ trying to bury papers and evidence they don’t like. It’s Climategate deja vu. Read about it here https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2023/08/how-science-is-done-these-days/

and here: The Climategate Gang Rides Again!

 

Shameless abuse of science…but then again, we know Mann has no shame, only hubris

better to know...?, climate-debate

New Scientist: How worried should we be about climate change?

by D. Whitehouse, Aug23, 2023 in NetZeroWatch

How worried should we be, asks New Scientist in a Climate Change Special Issue. The 19th August issue is billed as a guide to a year of extreme weather – “a year of extremes,” when 2023 is barely half way over.

In a New Scientist Climate Special Report senior reporter Michael Le Page asks if climate change is worse than we thought it would be? Well, it depends upon who you ask – and New Scientist usually asks the same experts for their unwavering opinions which, as we shall see, are sometimes just a premonition they have.

The article in question quotes the usual crew: Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, Piers Forster of the University of Leeds, Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Together they have been quoted in the New Scientist 109 times.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

“97% Consensus” — What Consensus?

by G. Wrightstone,  Aug 31, 2023 in WUWT

You have likely heard that 97% of scientists agree on human-driven climate change. You may also have heard that those who don’t buy into the climate-apocalypse mantra are science-deniers. The truth is that a whole lot more than 3% of scientists are skeptical of the party line on climate. A whole lot more.

The many scientists, engineers and energy experts that comprise the CO2 Coalition are often asked something along the lines of: “So you believe in climate change, then?” Our answer? “Yes, of course we do: it has been happening for hundreds of millions of years.” It is important to ask the right questions. The question is not, “Is climate change happening?” The real question of serious importance is, “Is climate change now driven primarily by human actions? That question should be followed up by “is our changing climate beneficial or harmful to ecosystems and humanity?”

There are some scientific truths that are quantifiable and easily proven, and with which, I am confident, at least 97% of scientists agree. Here are two:

  1. Carbon dioxide concentration has been increasing in recent years.
  2. Temperatures, as measured by thermometers and satellites, have been generally increasing in fits and starts for more than 150 years.

What is impossible to quantify is the actual percentage of warming that is attributable to increased anthropogenic (human-caused) CO2. There is no scientific evidence or method that can determine how much of the warming we’ve had since 1900 that was directly caused by us.

We know that temperature has varied greatly over the millennia. We also know that for virtually all of that time, global warming and cooling were driven entirely by natural forces, which did not cease to operate at the beginning of the 20th century.

The claim that most modern warming is attributable to human activities is scientifically insupportable. The truth is that we do not know. We need to be able to separate what we do know from that which is only conjecture.

What is the basis for the “97% consensus” notion? Is it true? 

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climate-debate

Canadian Fires Defy Alarmist Claims, Continue Downward Trend

by P. Gosselin, Aug 30, 2023, in ClimateChangeDispatch

Unusual weather situations are always the hour for attribution researchers these days.

Canada is suffering from forest fires again this year. The reason is the persistent drought. [emphasis, links added]

According to a study, climate change has doubled the probability of forest fires in Canada:

Extreme wildfire conditions in Canada have been fueled by intense, spatially extensive and persistent fire-conducive weather conditions, known as fire weather, which has been observed since the beginning of May throughout the country. Canada has experienced its warmest May-June period since 1940, beating the previous record set in 1998 by a huge margin (0.8°C).

At the national scale, relative humidity was also very low. The warm and dry conditions, together with continuous southeasterly winds fueled extensive fire spread in Alberta, British Columbia, central Saskatchewan and southwestern portions of the Northwest Territories.

There are at least 17 direct fatalities linked to the fires, more than 150,000 people have been evacuated, and at least 200 structures, including homes, were damaged in the fires (AP News, 2023).

The Canadian wildfires have severely impacted air quality locally in Canada, and in the neighboring United States with Air Quality Index (AQI) values frequently exceeding safe levels in the Midwest and northeast USA, and in some cases approaching record levels (e.g. on June 7th AQI reached 341 in New York City, considered hazardous for all residents) (CNBC, 2023).

Similarly, in southern Ontario, including the cities of Ottawa and Toronto, air quality reached the ‘very high risk’ level forcing officials to cancel public events and reduce hours for outdoor public services. Schools remained closed for several days in many states, including Nova Scotia, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.”

Trend defies alarmist claims

However, the country’s official wildfire statistics do not show this suspected trend. Statista lists them.

Strictly speaking, the trend in the number of fires is decreasing through 2022. [The numbers will rise again in 2023 given almost 6,000 fires were counted by August 23, 2023.]

But that will still be below the 2006 figures.

Source: Statista

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climate-debate

Summer: The Best Of Times For Climate Alarmists

by G. Wrightstone, Aug 25, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

August and September are great months to be a professional climate alarmist like Dr. Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania.

You have hurricanes making landfall, wildfires seemingly everywhere, the odd F-4 tornado wreaking devastation, and you can pretend that these [events] never happened before we started adding CO2 to the atmosphere. [emphasis, links added]

Plus, you have virtually all the media and a host of “environmental” groupsparroting every seemingly scientific observation without question.

Yes, alarmists find it best to use their time during the hazy hot days of summerlinking every possible weather event to our use of fossil fuels and that demon molecule, CO2.

They must do this in order to instill the fear required to impose economically crippling new taxes or restrict citizens’ freedom to choose what car, dishwasher, stove, showerhead or washing machine to purchase.

Right now, with wildfires in Canada and Greece and the tragic fire in Lahaina, Maui, the focus is on linking supposed man-made warming to these events and characterizing them as unprecedented.

Are they really extraordinary and increasing?

NASA reports that between 2003 and 2019, the global area burned has dropped by roughly 25 percent.

In addition, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reports that according to satellite data, the year 2020 was one of the least active years since records began in 2003.

Learn more about the Lahaina fire here.

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Also : China’s summer of climate destruction

climate-debate

Shock Retraction of Climate Science Paper Showing No Climate Emergency Draws Comparisons with Climategate Scandal

by C. Morrison, Aug 26, 2023 in TheDailySceptic

Shocking details of corruption and suppression in the world of peer-reviewed climate science have come to light with a recent leak of emails. They show how a determined group of activist scientists and journalists combined to secure the retraction of a paper that said a climate emergency was not supported by the available data. Science writer and economist Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has published the startling emailsand concludes: “Shenanigans continue in climate science, with influential scientists teaming up with journalists to corrupt peer review.”

The offending paper was published in January 2022 in a Springer Nature journal and at first attracted little attention. But on September 14th the Daily Sceptic covered its main conclusions and as a result it went viral on social media with around 9,000 Twitter retweets. The story was then covered by both the Australian and Sky News Australia. The Guardian activist Graham Readfearn, along with state-owned Agence France-Presse (AFP), then launched counterattacks. AFP ‘Herald of the Anthropocene’ Marlowe Hood said the data were “grossly manipulated” and “fundamentally flawed”.

After nearly a year of lobbying, Springer Nature has retracted the popular article. In the light of concerns, the Editor-in-Chief is said to no longer have confidence in the results and conclusion reported in the paper. The authors were invited to submit an addendum but this was “not considered suitable for publication”. The leaked emails show that the addendum was sent for review to four people, and only one objected to publication.

What is shocking about this censorship is that the paper was produced by four distinguished scientists, including three professors of physics, and was heavily based on data used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The lead author was Professor Gianluca Alimonti of Milan University and senior researcher of Italy’s National Institute of Nuclear Physics. Their paper reviewed the available data, but refused to be drawn into the usual mainstream narrative that catastrophises cherry-picked weather trends. During the course of their work, the scientists found that rainfall intensity and frequency was stationary in many parts of the world, and the same was true of U.S. tornadoes. Other meteorological categories including natural disasters, floods, droughts and ecosystem productivity showed no “clear positive trend of extreme events”. In addition, the scientists noted considerable growth of global plant biomass in recent decades caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

In fact this scandal has started to attract comparison with the Climategate leaks of 2009 that also displayed considerable contempt for the peer-review process. One of the co-compilers of the Met Office’s HadCRUT global temperature database Dr. Phil Jones emailed Michael Mann, author of the infamous temperature ‘hockey stick’, stating: “I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is!”

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climate-debate

Fact Checking The Met Office’s Fact Checks

by P. Homewood, Aug 25, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

It seems the Met Office is getting worried that its one-sided reporting of climate change is becoming exposed, as people are beginning to check the facts for themselves

A toolkit of information you can trust.

There is overwhelming evidence that climate change is affecting the health of the planet and the wellbeing of billions of people around the world. The impacts are affecting the lives and livelihoods of many, sometimes on a daily basis.

Despite the evidence and public concern about climate change – 82% of people in the UK are at least fairly concerned with 39% very concerned according to a recent survey by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero – there is a proliferation of climate misinformation especially on social media. As one of the world’s leading weather and climate organisations we believe it is important we all have access to trusted, up to date information on climate change.

In this age where the flow of information is shared so quickly, we have developed a toolkit to provide information and clarity around topics on which misinformation is sometimes shared. This will enable individuals to form opinions from information based on peer-reviewed science. Much of our scientific research forms part of the national and international scientific evidence for climate change and climate change impacts. These pages include the latest climate science from our own research as well as the latest internationally agreed science collated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

There are certain areas that are regularly questioned and unfortunately some of this scepticism can deflect attention away from important issues such as the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. When we spot themes of climate misinformation, we will update the content on these pages to give you access to trusted information on what we believe is one of the greatest challenges to the future of our planet and society.

If you would like to find out more about what you can do to help tackle climate change, visit our Get Climate Ready webpages.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/tackling-climate-misinformation

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better to know...?, biology+acidification

Pacific coral reef shows historic increase in climate resistance

by Newcastle University, Aug 22, 2023 in EurekAlert

Coral reefs in one part of the Pacific Ocean have likely adjusted to higher ocean temperatures which could reduce future bleaching impacts of climate change, new research reveals.

A Newcastle University-led study focused on the Pacific Island nation of Palau and has shown that historic increases in the thermal tolerance of coral reefs are possible. The results demonstrate how this capacity could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.

Drawing on decades of field observations, the scientists modelled many possible future coral bleaching trajectories for Palauan reefs, each with a different simulated rate of thermal tolerance enhancement. They found that if coral thermal tolerance continues to rise throughout the 21st century at the most-likely historic rate, significant reductions in bleaching impacts are possible.

Published in the journal, Nature Communications, the results affirm the scientific consensus that the severity of future coral bleaching depends on carbon emissions reductions. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios where, for example, the Paris Agreement commitments are fulfilled. However, such bleaching impacts are unavoidable under high emissions scenarios where society continues to rely on fossil-fuelled development.

Study lead author, Liam Lachs, is a part of Newcastle University’s Coralassist lab. “Our study indicates the presence of an ecological resilience to climate change, yet also highlights the need to fulfil Paris Agreement commitments to effectively preserve coral reefs,” Lachs said. “We quantified a natural increase in coral thermal tolerance over decadal time scales which can be directly compared to the rate of ocean warming. While our work offers a glimmer of hope, it also emphasises the need for continued action on reducing carbon emissions to mitigate climate change and secure a future for these vital ecosystems.”

Study co-author, Dr James Guest, of Newcastle University’s School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, added: “We know that coral reefs can increase their overall thermal tolerance over time by acclimatisation, genetic adaptation or shifts in community structure, however we know very little about the rates at which this is occurring. This study uses data from a remote Pacific coral reef system and estimates the rate of increase in tolerance since the late 1980s. The results provide some hope that reefs can keep up with increasing temperatures, but only if strong action is taken on climate change.”

This study was the result of a collaborative visit the lead author undertook in 2021 to work with Professor Simon Donner’s Climate and Coastal Ecosystems Laboratory at the University of British Columbia, Canada. “This study shows the potential for some coral reefs to become more resilient to future climate change-fuelled heat waves,” Prof. Donner said. “That resilience, however, can also come at a cost, in terms of reduced reef diversity and growth. Without sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions over the next two to three decades, the reefs in the Pacific won’t provide the resources and protection from waves that Pacific peoples have depended upon for centuries.”

 

Continuer la lecture de Pacific coral reef shows historic increase in climate resistance →

climate-debate

State of the climate – summer 2023

by J. Curry, Aug 15, 2023 in WUWT

A deep dive into the causes of the unusual weather/climate during 2023.  People are blaming fossil-fueled warming and El Nino, and now the Hunga-Tonga eruption and the change in ship fuels.  But the real story is more complicated.

Observations

Starting in June, the global temperatures are outpacing the record year 2016 (Figure 1).

Figure 1.  From Copernicus ECMWF

Here is the time series of the monthly surface temperature anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis (Figure 2).  The July 2023 spike was of comparable magnitude to the winter 2016 anomaly which occurred in late winter.

Figure 2.

Here is the time series of the monthly lower atmospheric temperature anomalies from the UAH satellite-based analysis.  The July 2023 temperature anomaly remains slightly below the peak 2016 temperature anomalies and comparable to the peak 1998 temperature anomaly.

Figure 3. Plot from Roy Spencer

The spatial variation of July temperature anomalies is shown below (Figure 4). The ERA5 is the long-standing standard for global reanalyses; the JMA-Q3 (Japan) is a new product that uses a more sophisticated data assimilation process, and I expect it to be at least as good as the ERA5.  Superficially, the spatial variability looks pretty much the same, but it is informative to compare the regional amounts of warming which differ significantly between the two reanalyses. Warming is greatest in the Antarctic, and lowest in the Arctic. The warming is also very strong over the NH midlatitude oceans.

The polar regions are of particular interest. The Arctic sea ice is healthy – Arctic sea ice extent for July was only the twelfth lowest in the satellite record.  Greenland mass balance (snow accumulation minus melt) for July is above average relative to 1980-2010.  The Antarctic is a different story.  Antarctic winter sea ice is extremely low, much lower than any wintertime observations since the beginning of the satellite record in 1980.  The warm anomaly near Antarctica is an effect the reduced sea ice extent, not a direct cause. The Antarctic ozone hole is opening very early.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

The Political Origins Of The Climate Change Swindle

by L. Balzer, A, Aug 15, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

A Canadian oil magnate and friend of David Rockefeller, Maurice Strong [pictured] set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1992.

Strong had been chairman of the 1972 Earth Day UN Conference, at which he advocated population reduction and the lowering of living standards in the interest of “saving the environment.” [emphasis, links added]

Strong asked, “Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”

He also boldly claimed, “Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.”

Strong had helped found the Club of Rome in 1968, which incorrectly believed that Earth’s population was out of control and using up resources too fast.

Their beliefs stemmed from the mistaken idea advanced by Thomas Malthus in his 1798 essay that the world’s population would outgrow the food supply.

In his 1968 book, “The Population Bomb“, Paul Ehrlich revived Malthus’ idea.

Ehrlich predicted,

“The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.”

Although Ehrlich’s forecasts proved incorrect, many people, some of them billionaires, still believe the world’s population should be as low as one billion – not the current 7.5 billion. (Bill Gates stated this explicitly in a Ted Talk!)

They’re afraid that if Third World people get the energy they need to raise their living standards, the Earth’s population will rise further.

This couldn’t be more untrue. History has shown in every instance that when a population’s living standards increase, the birth rate decreases. This principle is known as the Demographic Transition.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

No, July Wasn’t The Warmest Month In Human History

by Dr M. Wielicki, Aug 14, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

What’s going on?

During the last month, we were bombarded with headlines such as:

This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in around 120,000 years, scientists say —CNN, July 27, 2023

July 2023 ‘Virtually Certain’ To Be Hottest Month In Human History —Forbes, July 27, 2023

So is there any validity to these claims… Was July the hottest month in human history? [emphasis, links added]

…snip…

Our civilization’s trajectory, from its humble beginnings in the wild to its current digital sophistication, serves as a testament to humanity’s relentless drive for advancement and ability to adapt.

The African Humid Period (AHP) and the rise of the Egyptian civilization…

The African Humid Period (AHP) is a climatic phase during the Holocene epoch characterized by much wetter conditions in large parts of Africa, especially the Sahara region, compared to the present day.

This significant shift in precipitation patterns had profound impacts on both the environment and early human societies of the continent.

The AHP roughly spanned from about 15,000 to 5,000 years ago, though exact timings can vary based on specific regions within Africa. It began at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum when ice sheets started retreating in the Northern Hemisphere.

One of the most dramatic manifestations of the AHP was the transformation of the Sahara desert. Today’s vast desert expanse was once a mosaic of grasslands, lakes, and rivers.

This “Green Sahara” supported a variety of wildlife, from large mammals like elephants and giraffes to a variety of fish in its waterways.

The wet conditions of the AHP supported a much denser human population in regions that are now desert. Archaeological evidence shows that these ancient Saharan communities engaged in fishing, hunting, cattle herding, and even agriculture.

The abundance of water and food allowed for relatively settled lifestyles compared to the more nomadic existences necessitated by the arid conditions that followed.

The primary driver behind the AHP is believed to be warmer summer temperatures and changes in the monsoon systems, which brought more rain to the African continent.

As these parameters shifted over millennia, the monsoons weakened, leading to the aridification of vast regions.

The African Humid Period serves as a reminder of the profound climatic variability our planet has experienced throughout relatively recent geological history at preindustrial levels of CO2, and the relative insensitivity of surface temperature and/or humidity and the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere.

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climate and geology

The MSM Has Memory-Holed Tonga’s Warming Effects On World Temps

by E. Erickson, Aug 14, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

On Jan. 15, 2022, the underwater Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano in the Pacific exploded. The volcano triggered tsunamis in the South Pacific and sent a massive plume of water vapor into the stratosphere.

Over the past year, scientists have increased the estimates of how much water vapor went into the stratosphere. That water vapor, every scientist agrees, warms the planet. [emphasis, links added]

Originally, scientists estimated 50 million metric tons of water went into the atmosphere.

Now, revised estimates are at 150 million metric tons, which equates to 40 trillion gallons of water injected into the stratosphere.

Over the past year, dozens of scientists have produced papers warning that the summer of 2023 and possibly into the next decade would be abnormally hot.

Scientists suggest the global temperature could increase more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In fact, that is exactly what is happening. Up until the summer heat wave, news reports noted the expected increase in temperatures due to the volcano.

But as the heat wave began, as predicted, the volcano and its water vapor disappeared from coverage.

Now, in the progressive spirit of never letting a crisis go to waste, the American and European press corpshave begun a full-court press on climate change.

Instead of the volcano, people, capitalism, and oil companies are to blame for the heat wave.

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La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse