Archives mensuelles : décembre 2023

climate-debate

Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions

by C. Morrison, Dec 23, 2023 in WUWT

The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.

In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.

It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.

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climate-debate

Hottest In 125,000 Years?

by P. Homewood, Dec 26, 2023 in WUWT

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/this-year-virtually-certain-be-warmest-125000-years-eu-scientists-say-2023-11-08/

Just about all of the media have been peddling the “Hottest for 125,000 years” claim, which suggests a very concerted effort by the climate establishment in the run up to COP28.

The claim is self evident and baseless nonsense for a number of good reasons:

  • There is no such thing as “a global average temperature”
  • Even now we have very sparse coverage of temperature measurements. Prior to satellites, we had virtually no data  outside of the US, Europe and a few other built up areas
  • The temperature record we do have is thoroughly corrupted by UHI, and only dates back to the late 19thC
  • Natural variations, including ENSO, volcanic activity etc, can easily cause temperature swings of a degree Celsius from year to year, and decade to decade. But historical proxies don’t have the fine resolution to pick these up, they merely give an idea of average temperatures over decades and even centuries. Consequently you cannot compare one year now with the general climate of, say, 2000 years ago.

But forget about all of these theoretical objections, because the climatic evidence we do have is overwhelming, and it tells us that the climate has been much warmer than now for most of the last 10000 years, since the end of the ice age.

Here are ten powerful, incontrovertible pieces of evidence:

1) Greenland

 

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate Science Double-Speak

by K. Hansen, 2017 in WUWT

A quick note for the amusement of the bored but curious.

While in search of something else, I ran across this enlightening page from the folks at UCAR/NCAR [The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/The National Center for Atmospheric Research — see pdf here for more information]:

“What is the average global temperature now?”

We are first reminded that “Climate scientists prefer to combine short-term weather records into long-term periods (typically 30 years) when they analyze climate, including global averages.”  As we know,  these 30-year periods are referred to as “base periods” and different climate groups producing data sets and graphics of Global Average Temperatures often use differing base periods, something that has to be carefully watched for when comparing results between groups.

Then things get more interesting, in that we get an actual number for Global Average Surface Temperature:

“Today’s global temperature is typically measured by how it compares to one of these past long-term periods. For example, the average annual temperature for the globe between 1951 and 1980 was around 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit (14 degrees Celsius). In 2015, the hottest year on record, the temperature was about 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C) warmer than the 1951–1980 base period.”

Quick minds see immediately that 1.8°F warmer than 57.2°F is actually 59°F [or 15° C]  which they simply could have said.

UCAR/NCAR goes on to “clarify”:

“Since there is no universally accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, several different groups around the world use slightly different methods for tracking the global average over time, including:

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

    NOAA National Climatic Data Center

    UK Met Office Hadley Centre”

We are told, in plain language, that there is no accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, but assured that it is scientifically tracked by the several groups listed.

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climate-debate

Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions

by C. Morrison, Dec 24, 2023 in WUWT

The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.

In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.

It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.

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energy and fields

Old King Coal at COP28: Uninvited Guest or Star of the Show?

by T. Coclanis, Dec 23, 2023 in WUWT

Last Friday, just two days after the Dubai COP28 meeting ended, a report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global coal demand will set another new record this year. Although coal use in the West is falling, demand in developing economies “remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output.”

Perhaps the best preamble to COP28 was delivered by India’s Power Minister, R. K. Singh. On November 6th, he stated “There is going to be pressure on nations at COP-28 to reduce coal usage. We are not going to do this… we are not going to compromise on availability of power for our growth, even if it requires that we add coal-based capacity”. India plans an additional 30 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fueled power generating capacity in addition to the existing 50 GW and plants already under construction. It is also set to increase coal production by 60% by 2030, from its current level of 1 billion tons, to ensure ample supply for its thermal power plants.

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energy and fields

Natural H2 Emissions in Colombian Ophiolites: First Findings

by A. Carillo Ramirez et al., Dec 2023 in MDPI/Springer

Abstract

The exploration of natural H2 or white hydrogen has started in various geological settings. Ophiolitic nappes are already recognized as one of the promising contexts. In South America, the only data available so far concerns the Archean iron-rich rocks of the Mina Gerais in Brazil or the subduction context of Bolivia. In Colombia, despite government efforts to promote white hydrogen, data remain limited. This article introduces the initial dataset obtained through soil gas sampling within the Cauca-Patia Valley and Western Cordillera, where the underlying geology comprises accreted oceanic lithosphere. In this valley, promising areas with H2 potential were identified using remote sensing tools, in particular vegetation anomalies. The Atmospherically Resistant Vegetation Index (ARVI) appears to be well adapted for this context and the field data collection confirmed the presence of H2 in the soil in all pre-selected structures. The valley undergoes extensive cultivation, mainly for sugar cane production. While H2emissions lead to alterations in vegetation, unlike reports from other countries, they do not result in its complete disappearance. Soil gas measurements along the thrusts bordering the Cauca Valley also show high H2 content in the fault zones. In the valley, the presence of sedimentary cover above the ophiolites which are presumably the H2generating rocks, which addresses the possible presence of reservoirs and seals to define potential plays. Drawing parallels with the Malian case, it could be that the intrusive element could serve as seals.
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minerals and ores

Can Extractive Industries Make Countries Happy? What Are Potential Implications for the Geoscientist? Overview and Case Study Examples from Papua New Guinea and Worldwide

by N. Mosusu et al., Dec 2023 in MDPI/Springer

Abstract

Geoscientists are involved in both the upstream and downstream side of the extractive industries. As explorationists and field geologists, they are often the first technical people related to extractive industries that communities meet. It is imperative in an increasingly globalized and holistic world that geoscientists gain greater awareness of the socio-economic impact of extractive industries and become a more proactive part of improving outcomes for all with respect to extractive industries. When Jigme Singye Wangchuk, the King of Bhutan, first suggested the concept of ‘Gross National Happiness’ (GNH) in 1972, it was met with widespread cynicism and puzzlement. Was the concept meaningful in a hard, economically competitive world? A series of measures, including the Human Development Index (HDI), the Gini Coefficient (GC), and the now annual World Happiness Report (WHR), are evolutionary responses to the 1972 GNH and are widely accepted as proxy measures of holistic human progress. These measures go beyond the narrow confines of Gross Domestic Product and similar economic proxies, placing economic parameters alongside the social, environmental, spiritual, human rights, health, and holistic societal issues. The broad conclusions of the plethora of metrics are that ‘happiness’ links to issues and ideas such as equity, minimal economic inequality, excellent governance, human rights, individual freedom, and so forth. We ask the question: what is the relationship between extractive industries (EIs) and GNH? We present a wide range of data and analytical diagrams/text examining potential correlations and associations between GNH and EIs. We examine potential relationships using global data and case studies for Papua New Guinea, Mongolia, the DRC, and Jamaica. The conclusions of this analysis of course suggest a complex relationship between EIs and GNH. We acknowledge that in situations of weak governance and institutions, EIs struggle to make any tangible difference with respect to GNH. A counter conclusion that EIs may even be a major cause of weak governance, which in turn suppresses happiness, must be seriously considered. We document examples where EIs have made a definitive positive improvement to GNH. Data suggest that hydrocarbon-rich countries have made better progress with respect to GNH than mineral-rich countries. However, the main conclusion is that the link between EIs and GNH remains a work in progress, and that a narrow focus on profit and shareholder return is an antithetical approach to the GNH paradigm. A key recommendation is that industry must adopt a far more active role (rather than merely a passive role) with respect to translating the many potential benefits of EIs into GNH than has hitherto been the case.

1. Introduction: How Can We Possibly Measure National Happiness? What Is the Relevance for Geoscientists?

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better to know...?, climate-debate

2 More New Studies Undermine Alarmist Claims That Corals Are Harmed By Warming

by K. Richard, Dec 21, 2023 in NotricksZone

Warmer sea surface temperatures are associated with coral growth, not decline.

According to a new study, coral growth was slow during the ~1°C colder Little Ice Age (LIA), but grew rapidly as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed after 1850. Warmth is associated with coral growth, whereas colder SSTs are linked to growth rate decline.

“The average growth rate of four colonies living in the LIA is 0.87 ± 0.11 cm/yr, which is significantly (t-test, p < 0.0001) lower than the colonies in the 20th century [1.23 ± 0.22 cm/yr].”

“The observed low average growth rates during the LIA can be explained by the ~1°C lower temperature.”

Ocean pH levels were as low or lower (more “acidified”) than recent decades during the LIA (e.g., 1500s to 1700s CE), suggesting that the atmospheric CO2 levels are not an ocean pH variability determinant. In fact, the authors point out that anthropogenic CO2 can only ever affect pH variability by 0.05 of a unit over centuries, whereas natural variations in pH units can reach 0.1 to 0.3 within a decade or less.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Greater Than The Early 1980s

by P. Homewood, Dec 21, 2023 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat

There was much scaremongering from the alarmist community when Antarctic sea ice extent fell earlier in the year. As the Antarctic summer begins, the melt has slowed down, to the extent that extent is not even the lowest since 1979, and it is higher than in 2017:

 

https://zacklabe.files.wordpress.com/2023/12/nsidc_sie_ant_lines-5.png

https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

But much more important is the fact that sea ice volume remains higher than the early 1980s, thanks to the fact that it is much thicker than normal around the peninsula:

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climate-debate

2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air

by D. Whitehouse, Dec 20, 2023 in NetZeroWatch

While 2023 will be the warmest year of the instrumental era, nobody knows why or what it means for the future of climate trends.

As can be seen from the year-to-date graph from NOAA below, 2023 started off with non-exceptional global temperature average – but from June onwards all months broke global records. Such was the cooler start to the year that it was only in September that it became apparent that 2023 could be the warmest year, surpassing the previous holder – 2016 – another El Nino year.

Clearly El Nino has a lot to do with it, coming after an unusual three years of La Nina events that tend to absorb heat in the oceans, releasing it in a subsequent El Nino, as has now happened. So as far as this represents “accelerating climate change” (as NOAA contends) it is debatable as it is mostly a delayed heat distribution, but time will tell.

It is pertinent to say that climate scientists were a little puzzled at this year’s sudden temperature surge as they cannot quite explain it: their models neither predict it nor are they able to account for the surprise. Other factors have contributed to it including the ongoing lifting of the aerosol pollution, especially by China, and the use of new formula ship fuels. The Hunga Tonga explosion that injected water vapour into the stratosphere might have had an effect, though probably a minor one. The Sun reaching the peak of the solar cycle will also have had a small influence.

All this means that 2024 could be another record year if the El Nino progresses, but 2025 will probably see global temperatures fall somewhat. Some have speculated that this will make 2024 the first year to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C threshold, although a single year is not indicative of a long term trend.

But how would we know we have passed this threshold?

Redefining Climate

Continuer la lecture de 2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air →

better to know...?, energy and fields

More coal burned on Earth in 2023 than ever before in human history

by Jo Nova, Dec19, 2023 in JoNova

The best kept secret in the world is that humans are using more coal than ever

So much for the “stranded dead asset”. In 2022 the world set a new all-time record for coal use — reaching 8.4 billion tons. In 2023, despite all the Net Zero billions in spending, despite the boom in windmills and solar panels, global demand for coal will top 8.54 billion tons.

The IEA is the “International Energy Agency” — supposedly, the impartial servant of 31 nations worth of taxpayers. Yet they decided to ignore the world record and instead tell us how coal is set to decline. It’s what they think the taxpayers need to hear.  Their press release:

Global coal demand expected to decline in coming years

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better to know...?, climate-debate

New Study Now Claims We Humans Heat The Atmosphere Just By Exhaling

by K. Richard, Dec 18, 2023 in NoTricksZone

“Where hydrocarbon chains (food types) are consumed by humans and turned into CH4 [methane] … global warming potential is no longer neutral, and human respiration has a net warming effect on the atmosphere.”  – Prada et al., 2023

Image Source pexels.com (stock photo)

According to a new study, humans “contribute to global warming” by exhaling greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide 16 times per minute.

“Exhaled human breath can contain small, elevated concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which contribute to global warming. These emissions from humans are not well understood and are rarely quantified in global greenhouse gas inventories.”

Like bovine populations, humans are referred to as “methane producers” (MPs), respiring and burping this potent greenhouse gas simply by existing. (Concerns about methane’s global warming potential are so significant that New Zealand is imposing a “methane tax” on the nation’s cows, as these MP animals are heating up the planet with their burps.)

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climate-debate

Ninety-Nine Percent? Re-Examining the Consensus on the Anthropogenic Contribution to Climate Change

by Denteslski et al. , Nov 2023 in MDPI/Springer

Abstract

Anthropogenic activity is considered a central driver of current climate change. A recent paper, studying the consensus regarding the hypothesis that the recent increase in global temperature is predominantly human-made via the emission of greenhouse gasses (see text for reference), argued that the scientific consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature pertaining to this hypothesis exceeds 99%. This conclusion was reached after the authors scanned the abstracts and titles of some 3000 papers and mapped them according to their (abstract) statements regarding the above hypothesis. Here, we point out some major flaws in the methodology, analysis, and conclusions of the study. Using the data provided in the study, we show that the 99% consensus, as defined by the authors, is actually an upper limit evaluation because of the large number of “neutral” papers which were counted as pro-consensus in the paper and probably does not reflect the true situation. We further analyze these results by evaluating how so-called “skeptic” papers fit the consensus and find that biases in the literature, which were not accounted for in the aforementioned study, may place the consensus on the low side. Finally, we show that the rating method used in the study suffers from a subjective bias which is reflected in large variations between ratings of the same paper by different raters. All these lead to the conclusion that the conclusions of the study does not follow from the data.
better to know...?

Measurements of methane and nitrous oxide in human breath and the development of UK scale emissions

by C. Rotter, Dec 16, 2023 in WUWT/PlosOne

In a recent study published in PLOS ONE, titled “Measurements of methane and nitrous oxide in human breath and the development of UK scale emissions,” researchers have embarked on a quest that epitomizes the absurdity of current climate change discourse. This study, focusing on the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from human breath, is not only a glaring example of scientific overreach but also a worrying indicator of the lengths to which climate alarmism is willing to go.

The study’s objective to investigate emissions from human breath in the UK population is fundamentally flawed. It operates under the assumption that these emissions are significant enough to warrant detailed analysis and inclusion in national greenhouse gas inventories. This premise is laughable at best, considering the minuscule percentage these emissions contribute to the overall greenhouse gas emissions.

The methodology employed in the study is questionable. Collecting 328 breath samples from 104 volunteers hardly constitutes a representative sample of the UK population. Furthermore, the study’s reliance on such a small sample size to draw conclusions about national-scale emissions is a classic case of over-extrapolation.

The study’s findings that 31% of participants were methane producers and that all participants emitted nitrous oxide are presented without adequate context. These results are portrayed as significant, yet they fail to consider the broader environmental impact. The fact that these emissions are stated contribute a mere 0.05% and 0.1% to the UK’s total emissions of CH4 and N2O, respectively, well below any margin of error in “national inventories” renders these findings insignificant.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Claim: Global Warming is Reducing Maximum Temperatures in the Himalayas

by E. Worrall, Dec 15, 2023 in WUWT

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 1120–1127 (2023)Cite this article

Abstract

Understanding the response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming is vital because of their role as a water source for the Asian subcontinent. However, great uncertainties still exist on the climate drivers of past and present glacier changes across scales. Here, we analyse continuous hourly climate station data from a glacierized elevation (Pyramid station, Mount Everest) since 1994 together with other ground observations and climate reanalysis. We show that a decrease in maximum air temperature and precipitation occurred during the last three decades at Pyramid in response to global warming. Reanalysis data suggest a broader occurrence of this effect in the glacierized areas of the Himalaya. We hypothesize that the counterintuitive cooling is caused by enhanced sensible heat exchange and the associated increase in glacier katabatic wind, which draws cool air downward from higher elevations. The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and negatively affecting glacier mass balance. This local cooling may have partially preserved glaciers from melting and could help protect the periglacial environment.

Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01331-y

The maximum temperature trend may be cooling at -0.26C per decade at some stations, according to the study.

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better to know...?, energy and fields

Evolution of the world fuel intensities

by S. Furfari, Dec 15, 2023 in ScienceClimatEnergie

A benchmark that explains why green NGOs want to promote energy sobriety

The fashion for saving energy, which assumes that human behaviour can compensate for the inelasticity of energy demand, is not new. Only the name is. In 1924, when US President Calvin Coolidge proposed saving oil because he had been told that reserves would soon be exhausted, he devised a strategy called energy conservation. Though compassionate and generous, these methods failed to reverse the continuing growth in energy demand. Energy consumption, and oil consumption in particular, continues to rise as the world’s population grows and more people need to eat and work, i.e. consume energy. It is the task of industry and engineers to make processes and products more efficient. It has always been an ongoing quest. The Romans used massive stones to build their bridges, creating amazing monuments. Today, a similar function is performed with much lighter materials. Efficiency is normal behaviour in human activities, including the production, conversion and consumption of energy.

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climate-debate

Saudi Oil Minister Praises UN Climate Agreement, Says It Won’t Slow Their Oil Sales

by N. Pope, Dec 14, 2023 in WUWT

The Saudi Arabian energy minister said Wednesday that the new United Nations (UN) green energy transition pledge will not diminish the country’s ability to sell fossil fuels, according to Al Arabiya, a Saudi Arabian news outlet.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the landmark international pledge to transition away from fossil fuels will not affect Saudi Arabian crude oil sales, according to Al Arabiya. The UN hailed the agreement as “the beginning of the end” for fossil fuels, but Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, does not seem especially concerned that the pledge spells doom for the country’s economic lifeblood.

Nearly 200 countries, including the U.S., signed onto the energy transition pledge on Wednesday, just before the annual UN climate summit adjourned.

“The pharaoh methodology of dictating things has been buried, and so people are free in their choices,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the oil minister, told Al Arabiya in an interview. He also said explicitly that the COP28 pledge would not hurt the country’s ability to sell crude oil. (RELATED: Biden To Visit Saudi Arabia After Once Vowing To Make Them A ‘Pariah’ During 2019 Debate)

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climate-debate

Matt Ridley: Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for the gulf between what world leaders preach at Cop28 and how much they still rely on fossil fuels

by P. Homewood, Dec 1,2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

As for predictable, do they take us for fools? After 27 previous Cop conferences we knew how this pantomime in Dubai would go.

Breakthrough! Deep into their umpteenth sleepless night of hard bargaining, the delegates at the Cop28 meeting in Dubai managed to upgrade a verb in their final deal.

Instead of saying nations ‘could’ take action, the agreement ‘calls on’ them to take action. Incredible! Cue rapturous applause and a standing ovation as representatives from 197 countries approved the historic ‘UAE Consensus’ on climate change.

‘There’s stronger verb forms but I think it does send a strong signal nonetheless,’ crowed a delegate from the World Resources Institute.

This verb miracle — alongside language about ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems [electricity, heating, transport and industry] in a just, orderly and equitable manner’ — is as futile as it was predictable. It’s futile because it will lead to the cancellation of precisely zero coal-fired power stations or oil-exploration plans.

China and India, despite spouting the Cop catechism, are between them approving the equivalent of a new coal plant every two or three days.

In America, which led calls to transition away from fossil fuels, oil and gas production has never been higher: it now produces far more oil than Saudi Arabia. Brazil — while demanding the phasing out of fossil fuels — plans to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2030.

Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for this gap between preaching and practice.

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…

In the year 2000, according to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, 84 per cent of the world’s primary energy came from fossil fuels. Last year, after 23 years of transitioning away from fossil fuels — and 27 interminable Cop conferences since 1995 — that number was… 82 per cent. At this rate it will take us till the year 3909AD to give up fossil fuels. No wonder a large chunk of the population thinks these talks are futile nonsense

climate-debate

SE Asian Sea Levels Were 3-4 Meters Higher Than Today 7-4 Thousand Years Ago

by K. Richard, Dec 12, 2023 in NoTricksZone

Comprehensive data analysis shows relative sea levels were anywhere from 1 to 7 meters (~3.9 m) higher than present throughout the Mid-Holocene at 15 of 16 assessed sites across Southeast Asia.

A new study (Li et al., 2023) compiles highstand records from sites spanning Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Borneo, Sunda Shelf, Makassar Strait…and indicates that throughout southeast Asia there was a “peak RSL [relative sea level] highstand of ~3.9 ±1.1 m at ~6 ka BP or later.”

Of the 16 locations assessed, just 1 did not indicate sea levels were higher than present back when CO2 levels were alleged to be 265 ppm.

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climate-debate

On Hens, Eggs, Temperatures and CO2: Causal Links in Earth’s Atmosphere

by D. Koutsoyiannis et al., Sept 2023 in MDPI/Springer

Abstract

The scientific and wider interest in the relationship between atmospheric temperature (T) and concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) has been enormous. According to the commonly assumed causality link, increased [CO2] causes a rise in T. However, recent developments cast doubts on this assumption by showing that this relationship is of the hen-or-egg type, or even unidirectional but opposite in direction to the commonly assumed one. These developments include an advanced theoretical framework for testing causality based on the stochastic evaluation of a potentially causal link between two processes via the notion of the impulse response function. Using, on the one hand, this framework and further expanding it and, on the other hand, the longest available modern time series of globally averaged T and [CO2], we shed light on the potential causality between these two processes. All evidence resulting from the analyses suggests a unidirectional, potentially causal link with T as the cause and [CO2] as the effect. That link is not represented in climate models, whose outputs are also examined using the same framework, resulting in a link opposite the one found when the real measurements are used.

Graphical Abstract

Science is generated by and devoted to free inquiry: the idea that any hypothesis, no matter how strange, deserves to be considered on its merits. The suppression of uncomfortable ideas may be common in religion and politics, but it is not the path to knowledge; it has no place in the endeavor of science. We do not know in advance who will discover fundamental new insights.
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climate-debate

Sheenjek, Alaska: A Jacoby-MBH Series

by S. McIntyre, Dec13, 2023 in ClimateAudit

MBH98 used three Jacoby tree ring chronologies from Alaska: Four Twelve (ak031) – discussed here, Arrigetch (ak032) and Sheenjek (ak033). Sheenjek will be discussed in this article.

In our compilation of MBH98 in 2003, we observed that the Sheenjek chronology archived at NOAA Paleo was not the same as the “grey” version used in MBH98.   While we used the MBH98 version to benchmark our emulation of the MBH98 algorithm, we used the version archived at NOAA in our sensitivity analysis, both in our 2003 article and in our early 2004 submission to Nature.  In his reply to our submission, Mann vehemently protested that the “introduc[tion of] an extended version of another Northern Treeline series not available prior to AD 1500 at the time of MBH98” “introduce[d] problems into the important Northern Treeline dataset used by MBH98”:

Finally, MM04 introduce problems into the important Northern Treeline dataset used by MBH98. Aside from incorrectly substituting shorter versions of the “Kuujuag” and TTHH Northern Treeline series for those used by MBH98, and introducing an extended version of another Northern Treeline series not available prior to AD 1500 at the time of MBH98, they censored from the analysis the only Northern Treeline series in the MBH98 network available over the AD 1400-1500 interval, on the technicality that it begins only in AD 1404 (MBH98 accommodated this detail by setting the values for AD 1400-1404 equal)

The other “Northern Treeline series” referred to here was Sheenjek chronology ak033.crn.  I checked Mann’s assertion alleging that the data was “not available prior to AD1500 at the time of MBH98”. This was contradicted by NOAA, who confirmed that the chronology that we had used had been available since the early 1990s.

In the figure below, I’ve compared three Sheenjek chronology versions:

  • the MBH98 version from 1580-1979 (plus 1980 infill);
  • the ModNegExp chronology (dplR) calculated from measurement data (ak033.rwl), which, in this case, has been available since the 1990s. It covers period 1296-1979.
  • the archived chronology at NOAA (ak033.crn). Also covering the period 1296-1979.

The issues relating to Sheenjek are different than observed at Four Twelve.

Continuer la lecture de Sheenjek, Alaska: A Jacoby-MBH Series →

unclassified

UN COP 28: Have we dodged the loss and damage threat again?

by D. Wojick, Dec 4, 2023 in CFact

As regular readers know, I have been tracking the U.N. development of the so-called “loss and damage” issue for several years. This has been a very dangerous concept.

As promoted by the extreme alarmists, it contemplates America and other developed countries paying trillions of dollars in reparations to developing countries for the supposed damages due to climate change we have caused. There have been future damage estimates as high as $400 trillion.

At COP 27 last year, an official loss and damage fund was launched but with no specific nature. That chore was left to today’s COP 28, and it has now been done, at least a very important little bit.

Happily, the official COP decision on the loss and damage fund has now been made, and it appears harmless. I sigh with relief.

Contributions to the fund are completely voluntary. There is no claim of reparation, obligation, compensation, nothing like that. It is simply a mechanism for rendering foreign aid for natural disasters. The agreement says this: “…funding arrangements, including a fund, for responding to loss and damage are based on cooperation and facilitation and do not involve liability or compensation.”

Of course, the alarmists are going to continue to describe it as a reparation fund, but that is just the usual hype. There is no there there.

Given that the US foreign aid budget runs around $30 billion a year, there should be no problem running a bit of that through the loss and damage fund, if and when it finally gears up. Initial contributions from various countries are running between $100 million and $10 million, which is almost nothing. My understanding is the US is kicking in a trivial $17.5 million. I suspect the US Government spends that much a year on unused airplane tickets.

Nor is this $100 million a year just a single donation. The UN’s flagship Green Fund only gets about $9 billion every five years, which is just $2 billion a year. If loss and damage do that well it is still insignificant compared to the $400 trillion hype. So, for now the loss and damage threat has simply ceased to exist. It consists of voluntary peanuts.

Mind you, one big fight lies ahead, but America and the other developed countries may have little to do with it. The monster question is, who gets these peanuts?

Pretty much every country gets bad weather, which is what loss and damage funds are supposed to cover. Taken together, the developing countries’s losses and damages are huge compared to the likely funding. So, who is going to get what little there is?

The COP decision is perfectly silent on the substance of this fundamental question. But we do have a procedure of sorts.

First, there will be created a Board to oversee the fund, which should be a contentious process in itself. Then, the Board is supposed to develop the rules, which at some point have to include who qualifies to get funded for their losses and/or damages.

However, what the Board decides is then subject to the approval of the next COP, which is likely to be where the real fight happens. Given that every country that is not going to get funded can veto giving some other country funding, this could be a protracted process. It might even be unresolvable.

In fact, we have a bit of a model for an impasse. The next COP is supposed to be in Eastern Europe, but no agreement on where can be reached because every possibility has been vetoed to date.

I am not making this up. Getting every Eastern European country to agree on who, instead of them, should get the enormous cash flow of  70,000 two-week visitors may not be possible. This one-shot COP income may well exceed all the loss and damage funding. It would be hilarious if COP 29 did not occur for this reason.

In any case, the news is great. The extremely dangerous loss and damage issue has been rendered harmless. It might even be paralyzed. One can hope, and time will tell.

better to know...?, energy and fields

Global CO2 emissions rise through 2050 in most IEO2023 cases

by EIA_ Today in Energy, Nov 30, 2023

We project that global energy-related CO2 emissions from consumption of coal, liquid fuels, and natural gas will increase over the next 30 years across most of the cases we analyzed in our International Energy Outlook 2023(IEO2023).

By 2050, energy-related CO2 emissions vary between a 2% decrease and a 34% increase compared with 2022 in all cases we modeled. Growing populations and incomes increase fossil fuel consumption and emissions, particularly in the industrial and electric power sectors. These trends offset emissions reductions from improved energy efficiency, lower carbon intensity of fuel mix, and growth in non-fossil fuel energy.

IEO2023 analyzes long-term world energy markets in 16 regions through 2050. We studied seven cases that explore differing assumptions of economic growth, crude oil prices, and technology costs. These cases consider only the international laws and regulations adopted through March 2023 and rely on the U.S. projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), which assumed U.S. laws and regulations as of November 2022.

Coal
Across sectors, the highest growth in global coal consumption through 2050 occurs in the electric power sector. Although zero-carbon technologies account for the most growth in electricity capacity and generation, we expect coal-fired generators to continue to operate. Across all cases, China and India account for about two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption between 2022 and 2050. Although China is currently the largest coal consumer, we project its coal consumption to decline by 18% between 2022 and 2050. Coal consumption in India nearly doubles over the same projection period.

Liquid fuels
We project global consumption of liquid fuels—which include gasoline, diesel, and biofuels—will increase through 2050. Across all sectors, the largest share and the fastest growth in liquid fuels consumption is in industrial applications, such as chemical production. Increased liquid fuels consumption in the industrial sector is partially offset by declining liquid fuels consumption in the transportation sector as adoption of electric vehicles (EV) grows. Regionally, we project the United States, China, and Western Europe to remain the top liquid fuels consumers, even though fuel consumption in these regions either declines or plateaus by the mid-2030s due to government policies and growing EV adoption. India has the fastest projected growth in liquid fuels consumption, more than doubling across all cases.

Natural gas
We project natural gas consumption will increase in the electric power and industrial sectors through 2050. In the cases we modeled, the electric power sector continues to rely on existing natural gas-fired plants despite growth in zero-carbon electricity generation. In the industrial sector, increased production of basic chemicals in countries such as the United States propels an increase in natural gas consumption, both as fuel and petrochemical feedstock. Natural gas demand also grows in the Middle East because of the fuel’s role in producing and processing natural gas and oil for export. The United States is projected to remain the world’s top natural gas consumer throughout the projection horizon, but the Middle East shows significant growth during that timeframe and approaches U.S. consumption by 2050, ranging from a 29% to 54% growth rate from 2022 to 2050 in the IEO2023 cases.

Principal contributors: Kevin Nakolan, Michelle Bowman

climate-debate, energy and fields

COP28: India doubles down on right to increase coal power and CO2 emissions

by P. Homewood, Nov 30, 2023 in NotaMotofPeopleKnowThat

“India cannot survive without coal as it has no other options.”

India has committed itself to greater coal-fired generation use ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai and is set to voice developing nations’ demands for a greater share of the carbon emissions budget at the Nov. 30-Dec. 12 summit.
India is the world’s third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China and the US, with a booming economy driving electricity demand up 9.6% in fiscal year 2023.


“There will be pressure again on those countries who use coal,” RK Singh, minister of power and new and renewable energy, said Nov. 6. “Our point of view is that we are not going to compromise with the availability of power for growth.”
Public sector power companies are constructing about 27 GW of thermal plants — almost all coal — but this is insufficient, according to Singh. The country needs “at least 80 GW” of new capacity to meet future demand, he said.


India generated 149.66 TWh of electricity in September, of which 108.70 TWh, or 73%, was coal-fired, data from Central Electricity Authority showed. The coal-fired figure was up 17% year on year.
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts the share of coal-fired generation in India’s power mix will rise to 77% by 2025 before falling to 71% in 2030 and 52% by 2050.


“India cannot survive without coal as it has no other options,” said Rashika Gupta, research and analysis director at S&P Global. “Nuclear and hydro take a decade to build, gas is not available, and LNG is very expensive. India’s forte has always been coal — it knows how to operate it, and there is indigenous capacity to build it.”
Full story

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unclassified

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Was Average–Not 4th Busiest

by P. Homewood, Dec 1, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

As even CBS own chart shows, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has only been average.

Instead it is those named storms, which did not reach hurricane strength, that have been above average. And as we know, this is simply because we are able to spot many more of these short lived, weak storms with the help of satellites, along with the fact that many storms are now named which would not have been categorised as Tropical Storms in the past.

First, let’s look at the actual data.

The best record we have is for US landfalling hurricanes, with reliable data back as far as the 1900. According to the US Hurricane Research Division (HRD):

Because of the sparseness of towns and cities before 1900 in some coastal locations along the United States, the above list is not complete for all states. Before the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts became settled, hurricanes may have been underestimated in their intensity or missed completely for small-sized systems (i.e., 2004’s Hurricane Charley).

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