Archives par mot-clé : Arctic

Now at least 10 years with sea ice at 2050-like levels yet polar bears are still abundant

by Polar Bear Science, September 27, 2018


We’ve hit the seasonal Arctic sea ice minimum for this year, called this morning by US NSIDC for 19th and 23rd of Septmeber: 4.59 mkm2, the same extent as 2008 and 2010. This is not a “ho-hum” year for polar bears: it means that since 2007, they have triumphed through 10 or 11 years1 with summer ice coverage below 5.0 mkm2 —  levels that in 2007 were expected to cause catastrophic declines in numbers.

Another Dis-alarming Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice David Middleton / 17 hours ago September 26, 2018

by David Middleton, September 26, 2018 in WUWT


Anthony recently posted an excellent Arctic sea ice analysis by Ron Clutz.  In a similar vein, I decided to look at Arctic sea ice from a couple of other dis-alarming perspectives.

We keep hearing about the Arctic being ice-free anytime from next month up until a continuously rolling forward decade or so.  One question that has to be answered is:

What does ice-free mean?

When does ice-free mean ice-free?

First, we need to clarify what exactly an “ice-free” Arctic summer is.

By “ice-free”, scientists usually mean a sea ice extent of less than one million square kilometres, rather than zero sea ice cover.

–Dr Alexandra Jahn, Assistant Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Fellow at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado. Carbon Brief, August 25, 2016.

Arctic Ice Made Simple

by Ron Clutz, September 22, 2018 in ScienceMatters


People are overthinking and over-analyzing Arctic Ice extents, and getting wrapped around the axle (or should I say axis).  So let’s keep it simple and we can all readily understand what is happening up North.

I will use the ever popular NOAA dataset derived from satellite passive microwave sensors.  It sometimes understates the ice extents, but everyone refers to it and it is complete from 1979 to 2017.  Here’s what NOAA reports (in M km2):

Negative climate feedback: more ships in the Arctic mean more cooling

by Anthony Watts, September 17, 2018 in WUWT


This article claim ships will “be able to sail right over the North Pole” by 2050 due to warming, but at the same time say ship tracks will make more clouds and cool the Arctic. Of course, anything is possible with the help of climate models.


More ships and more clouds mean cooling in the Arctic

With sea ice in the Arctic melting at an alarming rate, opportunities for trans-Arctic shipping are opening up, and by mid-century ships will be able to sail right over the North Pole – something not previously possible for humankind.

More Support for a Global Warming Hiatus

by M. Ding et al., August 27,  2018 in CO2Science 


The results of their analysis revealed that warming in this high Arctic site had proceeded at four times the global mean rate calculated in other data sets. However, Ding et al. note that over the last decade (2005-2014), “the warming rate in Ny-Ålesund slowed to 0.03 ± 1.85°C per decade,” which is essentially indicative of no-trend in the data. Lead-lag analysis further revealed that “Ny-Ålesund and global temperature variations were remarkably consistent, with a lag time of 8-9 years.” Consequently, the researchers say that “the ‘warming hiatus’ many scientists [have] studied also appears in Ny-Ålesund, it just started later than [that observed in] other areas.”

Back To Reality

by P.  Homewood, September 2, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Global temperatures fell back to 0.19C in August. This means the YTD average is 0.23C, putting them back to roughly where they were in 2002.

Arctic sea ice is tracking close to 2014, which finished with one of the highest minimums in the last decade. Current extent is well above the last three years.

 

Ralentissement de la fonte de la banquise Arctique : pas de record en 2018

by Météo Paris, 25 août 2018


Malgré des températures particulièrement élevées ces dernières semaines sur l’Hémisphère Nord, voire exceptionnelles sur l’Europe, le déclin des glaces de l’Arctique s’est vu ralenti.

Au 23 août, l’étendue des glaces de l’Arctique était d’approximativement 4.945 millions de kilomètres carrés. Des niveaux toujours particulièrement bas au regard de la moyenne observée sur la période 1981-2010 (6.866 millions de km2, soit un déficit de 28%). Néanmoins, ce niveau n’est « que » le 6e plus bas observé à cette date, très loin de la triste année 2012 (une superficie inférieure à 4 millions de km2 à la fin août). Une timide amélioration, puisque l’étendue de ces glaces avait alors été la 4e plus faible jamais observée sur l’ensemble du mois de juin.

 

Graphique de l’étendue des glaces de l’océan Arctique (en millions de km2) – Zachary Michael Labe

nb se reporter à la courbe rouge/see red curve

Arctic Summer Sea Ice Growth Trend Extends Another Year …Greenland Summer One Of Coldest In 30 Years!

by P. Gosselin, August 24, 2018 in NoTricksZone


As the Arctic summer ice melt approaches its peak, we can say with high certainty that this year’s ice melt will extend the trend of a rebounding Arctic ice mass by another year.

Arctic summer sea ice now growing 12 years

Our Japanese skeptic blogger and good friend Kirye reports using the data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that peak summer Arctic sea ice volume upward growth trend has been extended yet another year – now 12 years.

Chart by Kirye. Data source: Danish Meteorology Institute (DMI).