Archives par mot-clé : Sea level

New Paper: 54% Of ‘Vulnerable’ SW Pacific Islands Studied Had Shorelines That EXPANDED From 2005-2015

by Kenneth Richard, July 26, 2018 in NoTricksZone


Despite a rapid local sea level rise rate nearly 3 times the global mean (1.8 mm/yr), 15 of 28 studied atoll islands in the southwest Pacific increased in shoreline area during 2005 to 2015 according to a new study (Hisabayashi et al., 2018). For the 3 islands that experienced extreme shoreline erosion – with one atoll island even “disappearing” – a Category 5 cyclone was identified as the most likely causal factor. 
Consequently, the authors conclude that “the dramatic impacts of climate change felt on coastlines and people across the Pacific are still anecdotal.

Stop the Climate Change Dystopia

by Michelle Stirling, July 28, 2018 in Medium


What’s wrong with comparing Super Storm Sandy’s devastation with projected sea level rise? They are two different things! One is a storm surge, the other an incremental change in either sea level or land subsidence (sinking) or both. For one we can evacuate the immediate area where landfall is forecast to hit in order to save lives. For the other, we have the time to build dikes and barriers like those in England and Holland, or flood-proof, or move. Super Storm Sandy is not unprecedented, and neither are extremely stormy and erratic periods of climate with catastrophic storms, like the Grote Mandrenke — The Great Drowning of Men — of the Little Ice Age. Let me set some perspective.

Swallowed Islands: Getting Sea Level Rise Out of Variability

by Kip Hansen, July 26, 2018 in WUWT


Author’s Note:

Journalists should do their job.  They should check the most pertinent facts for themselves — in this case:  Is sea level really rising 7-10 mm/yr in the Solomons?

Finding out that it hasn’t and isn’t makes a much more interesting story than “yet-another-alarmist-talking-point”.

Do note that while coral atolls are generally self-regenerating, sand spits/sand bars are not — they are at the mercy of the currents and waves.

Thanks for reading.

Fiji ‘Flooding’ is Fake News from #COP23

by Nils-Axel Mörner, November 13, 2017 in WUWT


These are the facts

  • Sea level has remained virtually at the present level over the last 200 years
  • In the last 50-70 years sea level has remained perfectly stable in Fiji
  • This stability is indicated by the growth of corals (stopped to grow vertically, and forced to grow laterally into microatolls) – and corals do not lie

We have (with references at the end)

o Studied your tide gauge records – Mörner & Matlack-Kelin, 2017a

o Studied sites of coastal erosion – Mörner & Matlack-Klein, 2017b

o Documented sea level change during the last 500 years in great details –

Mörner & Matlakc.Kelin, 2917c

o Noted the close similarity to similar records in nations like the Maldives,

Bangladesh and India – Mörner, 2017

o We have presented our data at conferences in Rome (4th WCCC, October 19-21, 2017) and Düsseldorf (11th EIKE, November 9-10, 2017) – see: Clutz, 2017 and Tallbloke’s Talkshop, 2017)

Sea Level Rise; A Major Non-Existent Threat Exploited by Alarmists and Politicians

by Tim Ball, July 21, 2018 in WUWT


I know there are many articles on this website about sea level, none better than the recent one by David Middleton that speaks about “More nonsense about sea level rise.” I thought his article would make the continuance of this article unnecessary. It doesn’t because it is written for the WUWT readers. Unfortunately, too many of them like most of the public, scientists, and media don’t know what is involved in creating the net result that is sea level. I think because they don’t know, that it is time for something more basic as a citizen’s template for fighting city hall. Citizens of Honolulu are the most recent victims of this as the Mayor of Honolulu directs the City to prepare for a 3-foot sea level rise in some undetermined time period. It was reinforced during a recent radio interview when a caller asked about it because his city was planning to spend millions on structures to anticipate sea level rise. I provided a few facts about changes in sea level, scientifically called eustasy, and all the other mechanisms that could explain that change.

(…)

Why would sea-level rise for global warming and polar ice-melt?

by A. Alam Khan, February17, 2018 in GeoScienceFrontiers


Highlights

• Global warming and polar ice-melt not contribute to sea level rise.

• Melting of huge volume of floating sea-ice around polar region cool ocean-water preventing thermal expansion.

• Polar ice melting re-occupy same volume of the displaced water causing no sea level rise.

• Gravitational attraction of the earth plays a dominant role against sea level rise.

• Melting of land ice in the polar region allow crust to rebound elastically for isostatic balancing through uplift should cause sea level to drop relatively.

See also Remember when sea-level rise was going to cause Pacific Islands to disappear? Never mind.

 

Sea level rise: isostatic adjustment

by Judith Curry, June 23, 2018 in ClimateEtc.


Assuming that the uncertainty in GIA adjustments are ‘in the noise’ of global sea level rise may not be entirely justified.  The adjustments to the satellite data that emerged in the discussion between Morner and Nerem do not inspire confidence in the estimate of sea level rise from satellite data, and the low level of stated uncertainty strains credulity.

(…)

See also here

NSF study: ‘…current carbon dioxide levels are not enough to destabilize the land-based ice on Antarctica’

by Anthony Watts, June 15, 2018 in WUWT


We covered this yesterday, but today the official press release came out, so worth covering again. Via Eurekalert


Land-based portion of massive East Antarctic ice sheet retreated little during past eight million years

But increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could affect stability and potential for sea level rise

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Large parts of the massive East Antarctic Ice Sheet did not retreat significantly during a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were similar to today’s levels, according to a team of researchers funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). The finding could have significant implications for global sea level rise.

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Sea Level Rise: Human Portion is Small

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., May 25 2018 in GlobalWarming


There is a continuing debate over sea level rise, especially how much will occur in the future. The most annoying part of the news media reporting on the issue is that they imply sea level rise is all the fault of humans.

This is why the acceleration of sea level rise is what is usually debated, because sea level has been rising naturally, for at least 100 years before humans could be blamed. So, the two questions really are (1) Has sea level rise accelerated?, and (2) how much of the acceleration is due to humans?

Yesterday’s spat between Gavin Schmidt and Willis Eschenbach dealt with the question of whether sea level rise has accelerated or not. Gavin says it has. Willis says not, or at least not by a statistically significant amount. (…)

See also TOP 10 Climate Change Alarmist Myths Unearthed : #2 SEA LEVEL RISE

More Irrefutable Evidence of Small Island Stability In the Face of Climate Change

by Duvat et al.  2017, Global&Planetary Change in CO2Science


Writing as background for their study, Duvat et al. (2017) state that “it has commonly been considered that atoll reef islands would disappear under climate change, as a result of sea-level rise and induced accelerating shoreline erosion,” citing the works of Connell (2003), Dickinson (2009) and McAdam (2010). This perception is based on model predictions, which have been hyped all over the globe, especially among politicians and the media, some of whom demand reparations for small island States who they fear will be forced to abandon their islands within decades.

But how much faith should one place in such projections and concerns?

According to Duvat et al., not that much … (…)

Changes in the Rate of Sea Level Rise

by Willis Eschenbach, May 22, 2018 in WUWT


There’s been some discussion of the rate of sea level rise lately, so I thought I’d take a look at some underlying data.

I started with a 2016 paper by the modern master of failed serial doomcasting, James Hansen. It has the frightening title of Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous… yikes! Be very afraid!

In Figure 29 of that paper, Hansen claims to show that sea level rise has been accelerating, from 0.6 mm/year from 1900 to 1930, to 1.4 mm/year from 1930 to 1992, and 2.6 mm/year from 1993 to 2015.

(…)

The Sea Is Rising, but Not Because of Climate Change

by Fred Singer, May 15, 2018 in TheWallStreetJournal


It is generally thought that sea-level rise accelerates mainly by thermal expansion of sea water, the so-called steric component. But by studying a very short time interval, it is possible to sidestep most of the complications, like “isostatic adjustment” of the shoreline (as continents rise after the overlying ice has melted) and “subsidence” of the shoreline (as ground water and minerals are extracted).

I chose to assess the sea-level trend from 1915-45, when a genuine, independently confirmed warming of approximately 0.5 degree Celsius occurred. I note particularly that sea-level rise is not affected by the warming; it continues at the same rate, 1.8 millimeters a year, according to a 1990 review by Andrew S. Trupin and John Wahr. I therefore conclude—contrary to the general wisdom—that the temperature of sea water has no direct effect on sea-level rise. That means neither does the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide.

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