Archives par mot-clé : Temperature

Heat Analysis of NOAA Data Suggests the US Is Not Seeing Increased Warming

by Leland Park, September 13, 2018 in WUWT


Given the impending global warming crisis declared by scientists, it should be easy to unambiguously demonstrate the crisis from the instrumental record. Unfortunately, when looking at the  high temperature record for the US, it does not show any warming.

Figure 1 illustrates the incremental changes in surface air temperatures based on year to year differences in station average Tmax. The data is from all active stations in the US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) from 1895 to 2014.

The classic heat equation defines changes in heat content as being proportional to changes in temperature (ΔQ = ƒ{ΔT} ).

Thus, Figure 1 amounts to a depiction of incremental changes in heat content, without scaling in energy units. The overall net temperature change is 0, which means the net change in heat content is also zero (ΔQ = ƒ{ΔT} = ƒ{0} = 0).

Figure 1 Year to Year Heat Changes (ΔT) for the USHCN

Empirical Evidence Shows Temperature Increases Before CO2 Increase in ALL Records

by Tim Ball, September 9, 2018 in WUWT


The question is how does the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) determine that an increase in atmospheric CO2 causes an increase in global temperature? The answer is they assumed it was the case and confirmed it by increasing CO2 levels in their computer climate models and the temperature went up. Science must overlook the fact that they wrote the computer code that told the computer to increase temperature with a CO2 increase. Science must ask if that sequence is confirmed by empirical evidence? Some scientists did that and found the empirical evidence showed it was not true. Why isn’t this central to all debate about anthropogenic global warming?

10 New Reconstructions Show Today’s Temperatures Still Among The Coldest Of The Last 10,000 Years

by K. Richard, September 10, 2018 in NoTricksZone


Even though CO2 concentrations hovered well below 300 ppm throughout most of the Holocene, newly published paleoclimate reconstructions affirm that today’s surface temperatures are only slightly warmer (if at all) than the coldest periods of the last 10,000 years.  This contradicts the perspective that temperatures rise in concert with CO2 concentrations.

 

Bottom Graph Source: Rosenthal et al. (2013)

Global Temperature Report: August 2018 – Global Temp cooling a bit to +0.19 from +0.32 in July.

by Anthony Watts, September 10, 2018 in WUWT


August Temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.:  +0.19 C (+0.34 °F) above seasonal average

Northern Hemisphere.: +0.21 C (+0.38°F) above seasonal average

Southern Hemisphere.: +0.16 C (+0.29 °F) above seasonal average

Tropics.: +0.12 C (+0.22 °F) above seasonal average

 

July Temperatures (final)

Global composite temp.:  +0.32 C (+0.58 °F) above seasonal average

Northern Hemisphere.: +0.42 C (+0.76°F) above seasonal average

Southern Hemisphere.: +0.21 C (+0.38 °F) above seasonal average

Tropics.: +0.29 C (+0.52 °F) above seasonal average

Media Extrapolating A Trend From A Single Data Point: 2018 Heatwave Edition

by P. Homewood, September 5, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


This article in something called Inside Climate News seems to be typical of many I have seen this year:  Because we have had much attention in the media on heat waves this year, there must be an upward trend in heat waves and that is a warning signal that man-made global warming is destroying the planet.  Typical of these articles are a couple of features

  1. Declaration of a trend without any actual trend data, but just a single data point of events this year

  2. Unstated implication that there must be a trend because the author can’t remember another year when heat wave stories were so prevalent in the media

  3. Unproven link to man-made global warming, because I guess both involve warmth.

How Do The Summers Of 1976 & 2018 Compare

by  P. Homewood, September 6, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


A lot of people have said they remember the summer of 1976 being hotter than this year. And they would be right.

According to CET data, at their peak temperatures went much higher and for longer than they did this summer. The only factor that kept the two summer remotely close was that in 1976 temperatures fell away during the middle of July to below average for a while.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetmaxdly1878on_urbadj4.dat

More Support for a Global Warming Hiatus

by M. Ding et al., August 27,  2018 in CO2Science 


The results of their analysis revealed that warming in this high Arctic site had proceeded at four times the global mean rate calculated in other data sets. However, Ding et al. note that over the last decade (2005-2014), “the warming rate in Ny-Ålesund slowed to 0.03 ± 1.85°C per decade,” which is essentially indicative of no-trend in the data. Lead-lag analysis further revealed that “Ny-Ålesund and global temperature variations were remarkably consistent, with a lag time of 8-9 years.” Consequently, the researchers say that “the ‘warming hiatus’ many scientists [have] studied also appears in Ny-Ålesund, it just started later than [that observed in] other areas.”

Back To Reality

by P.  Homewood, September 2, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Global temperatures fell back to 0.19C in August. This means the YTD average is 0.23C, putting them back to roughly where they were in 2002.

Arctic sea ice is tracking close to 2014, which finished with one of the highest minimums in the last decade. Current extent is well above the last three years.

 

Hottest Summer Evah? Not According To CET.

by Paul Homewood, September 1, 208  in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


With one day to go, it is clear that 2018 has been one of the hottest summers on record for the UK, however, the margin between the mean temperatures at the top of the league tables (records dating back to 1910) is so small that at this point it is impossible to say if 2018 will be an outright winner.  It is very close to the record-breaking summers of 2006 (15.78C), 2003 (15.77C), and 1976 (15.77C) all of which are within 0.01C of each other.

The margin is so small that different datasets and different regions of the UK will have different ranking. Usually we will only quote statistics to the nearest 0.1C as differences smaller than this could result from small numerical differences arising from the statistical calculations. A more comprehensive analysis of the 2018 summer data will be undertaken early next week and data for summer 2018 will continue to be analysed over the coming months.

@UCSUSA “Union of Concerned Scientists” doesn’t understand what “unprecedented” means when used with the word “warming”

by Anthony Watts, August 30, 2018 in WUWT


Earth’s surface has undergone unprecedented warming over the last century, and especially in this century.

Every single year since 1977 has been warmer than the 20th century average, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001, and 2016 being the warmest year on recorded history. A study from 2016 found that without the emissions from burning coal and oil, there is very little likelihood that 13 out of the 15 warmest years on record would all have happened.

Source: https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/human-contribution-to-gw-faq.html


First a definition of the word “unprecedented”:

Note that “in this century” isn’t part of the definition. it says “never done or known before”

So in that spirit, here’s some other “unprecedented” warming in Earth’s history, via the Vostok Ice Core dataset:

Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years

by H.J. Lüdecke and C.O. Weiss, April 27, 2017 in TheOpenAtm.Sci.J.


Abstract

The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 – year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We have constructed by reverse Fourier transform a representation of G7 using only these three sine functions, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The three cycles are also found dominant in the production rates of the solar-induced cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be, most strongly in the ~190 – year period being known as the De Vries/Suess cycle. By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.

Greenland Temperatures In 2017

by P. Homewood, July 1, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


As we all know, Greenland is warming up rapidly, causing the ice sheet to melt faster and faster.

Well, according to the BBC and New York Times, at least.

Only one slight problem – the temperature record shows quite a different story.

There is certainly no evidence of rising temperature trends, and every likelihood that temperatures will plummet again when the AMO turns cold again.

Climate4you update July 2018

by Ole Humlum, August 20, 2018 in Climate4You


 

.pdf (49pages)

CONTENTS

July 2018 global surface air temperature overview

Comments to the July 2018 global surface air temperature overview Temperature quality class 1: Lower troposphere temperature from satellites Temperature quality class 2: HadCRUT global surface air temperature Temperature quality class 3: GISS and NCDC global surface air temperature Comparing global surface air temperature and satellite-based temperatures Global air temperature linear trends
Global temperatures: All in one, Quality Class 1, 2 and 3
Global sea surface temperature
Ocean temperature in uppermost 100 m
North Atlantic heat content uppermost 700 m
North Atlantic temperatures 0-800 m depth along 59N, 30-0W
Global ocean temperature 0-1900 m depth summary
Global ocean net temperature change since 2004 at different depths
La Niña and El Niño episodes
Troposphere and stratosphere temperatures from satellites
Zonal lower troposphere temperatures from satellites
Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere temperatures from satellites Temperature over land versus over oceans
Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
Sea level in general
Global sea level from satellite altimetry
Global sea level from tide gauges
Northern Hemisphere weekly and seasonal snow cover
Atmospheric specific humidity
Atmospheric CO2
The phase relation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature
Global air temperature and atmospheric CO2
Latest 20-year QC1 global monthly air temperature change
Sunspot activity and QC1 average satellite global air temperature
Climate and history: 1728: Vitus Bering and the non-discovery of Bering Strait