Archives par mot-clé : El Nino

The Pause Has Returned.

by P. Homewood, April 5, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Hadcrut now have numbers out for February, giving an anomaly of 0.523C, measured against the 1961-90 baseline, slightly down on January’s 0.556C.

This means that the last six months have been below 0.59C.

It is clear that temperatures are settling down at a similar level to the period between 2002 and 2007, following the record El Nino of 2015/16. Bear in mind as well that the degree of accuracy, according to the Hadley Centre, is about +/-0.1C. As such, it cannot be said that there has been any statistically measurable warming since 2001, or indeed previously.

It is possible temperatures may drop further in coming months, with weak La Nina conditions established, although these are predicted to disappear by the summer.

Un El Niño hors norme ne signifie pas la reprise du réchauffement mondial

by Uzbek, 24 janvier 2018 in ClimatEnv&Energie

Dans un communiqué du 18 janvier 2018, l’OMM (Organisation météorologique mondiale) classe 2017 dans les trois années les plus chaudes depuis le début des mesures. Le record reste détenu par l’année 2016 (+ 1,2° C au-dessus des températures de la période pré industrielle) suivie par l’année 2015 (+ 1,1° C) toutes deux influencées par un épisode El Niño intense.

L’année 2017 serait ainsi l’année la plus chaude sans influence d’un phénomène El Niño. L’OMM suggère ainsi une reprise du réchauffement mondial après une pause des températures de plus de 17 ans.


Alarmist Retreat Begins: Natural Factors May Cause New Global Warming Hiatus

by Dr Benny Peiser, January 24, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change.

Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus.’ —James Hansen et al, 18 January 2018

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) has lodged a new complaint with the BBC about its misleading reporting on global warming.

See also here

Further proof El Ninos are fueled by deep-sea geological heat flow

by Janes E Kamis, January, 27 in CliateChangeDispatch

The 2014-2017 El Nino “warm blob” was likely created, maintained, and partially recharged on two separate occasions by massive pulses of super-heated and chemically charged seawater from deep-sea geological features in the western North Pacific Ocean. This strongly supports the theory all El Ninos are naturally occurring and geological in origin. Climate change / global warming had nothing to do with generating, rewarming, intensifying, or increasing the frequency of the 2014-2017 El Nino or any previous El Nino.

If proven correct, this would revolutionize climatology and key aspects of many interrelated sciences such as oceanography, marine biology, glaciology, biogeochemistry, and most importantly meteorology. Information supporting a geological origin of El Ninos is diverse, reliable, and can be placed into five general categories as follows: (…)

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Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa

by M. Khodri et al., October 3,  2017 in Nature

Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Niño within 2 years following the eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism

The Little Boy, El Nino and Natural Climate Change

by Anastasios Tsonis, September 15, 2017 in GWPF Report26 (.pdf)

This report describes this phenomenon and brings it into a modern global con- text. But the story is more than simply one of some old South American geophysical phenomenology seen from a global perspective; it is tied to an extraordinary story about new scienti c thinking, arising at the end of the 20th century, concerning the nature of change itself.

2015-16 El Nino behind large-scale surface melting event in Antarctica

by Nature Communications, June 15, 2017 in ClimatChangeDispatch

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, a landbound mass of ice larger than Mexico, experienced substantial surface melt through the austral summer of 2015-2016 during one of the largest El Niño events of the past 50 years, according to scientists who had been conducting the first comprehensive atmospheric measurements in the region since the 1960s.

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Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

by K. Thirumalai et al., June 6, 2017, in Nature Communication

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years.