by David Middleton, October 15, 2018 in WUWT
From the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR):
Home » Newsroom » News » 2018 » October
OMR: Twin Peaks
12 October 2018
Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon. Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now.
by Anthony Watts, October5, 2018 in WUWT
More than 100 leading scholars from 12 countries have issued a report contending “the global war on fossil fuels … was never founded on sound science or economics” and urging the world’s policymakers to “acknowledge this truth and end that war.”
The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an independent organization founded in 2003 to fact-check the work of the United Nations on the issue of climate change, today released the Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels. The 27-page Summary provides an early look at a 1,000-page report expected to be released on December 4 at a climate science symposium during the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP-24) in Katowice, Poland.
Among the findings reported in the Summary for Policymakers:
- Reducing fossil fuel use to achieve dramatic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions would inflict tremendous economic hardship. Reducing greenhouse gases to 90 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 would require a 96% reduction in world GDP, reducing per-capita GDP to $1,200 from $30,600 now forecast. Per-capita income would be at about the level it was in the United States and Western Europe in about 1820 or 1830, before the Industrial Revolution.
by David Middleton, September 12, 2018 in WUWT
Statistical Review of World Energy
Global primary energy consumption grew strongly in 2017, led by natural gas and renewables, with coal’s share of the energy mix continuing to decline
- Primary energy consumption growth averaged 2.2% in 2017, up from 1.2 % last year and the fastest since 2013. This compares with the 10-year average of 1.7% per year.
- By fuel, natural gas accounted for the largest increment in energy consumption, followed by renewables and then oil.
- Energy consumption rose by 3.1% in China. China was the largest growth market for energy for the 17th consecutive year.
- Carbon emissions increased by 1.6%, after little or no growth for the three years from 2014 to 2016.
Despite the Never-Ending Death of Coal: It’s Still a Fossil Fueled World
by Kemberlee Kaye, July 19, 2018 in LegaIinsurrection
The Lone Star State is poised to pass up Iraq and Iran becoming the world’s third-largest producer of oil next year.
CNN Money reports the shale boom in the Permian Basin, which covers a large swath of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, is to thank.
by Andy May, July 7, 2018 in WUWT
The end of oil and gas has been predicted on a regular basis since 1885, yet today we use more of both than ever before and no end is in sight in the data available. Figure 1 shows worldwide energy consumption by fuel since 1965 and projected to 2035 by BP in billion tonnes of oil equivalent, it shows substantial growth in both oil and gas.
Figure 1. Worldwide energy consumption by type of fuel. Source: BP Energy Outlook 2017.
by Michael Lynch, June 30, 2018 in WUWT
Very few people realize that the entire concerns about peak oil were based on misinformation or junk science.
A decade ago, the media was filled with stories about peak oil, numerous books were published on the subject (such as Half Gone and $20 a Gallon!), and even the Simpsons mentioned it in an episode about doomsday preppers. Now, the topic is largely forgotten and the flavor of the month is peak oil demand. Anyone concerned about the quality of research that works its way into the public debate should be curious about how so many were so wrong for so long. (Buy my book for the full story.)
First and foremost, realize that in the 1970s, numerous analysts and institutions made similar arguments, arguing that geological scarcity was responsible for higher prices not the two disruptions of production in 1973 and 1979. Indeed, in the months before oil prices collapsed in 1986, the consensus was that prices were too low and had to rise to make upstream investment profitable, despite the fact that OPEC production was collapsing (down from 30 mb/d in 1980 to 15 in 1985). You would think that this would make people more skeptical about claims that geological scarcity was responsible when the shutdown of Venezuelan production and the second Gulf War cut off Iraqi supplies sent prices higher starting in 2003.
by Samuel Furfari, 21 juin 2018, in ConnaissancedesEnergies
Ce week-end, le monde de l’énergie délaissera le Mondial de football pour s’intéresser à la rencontre ministérielle de l’OPEP à Vienne. Des grandes manœuvres sont en cours, non pas tellement pour décider des « allocations de production » – pléonasme employé par l’OPEP pour ne pas parler de « quotas de production », ce qui aurait une connotation négative – mais des positionnements géopolitiques dans le nouveau monde en construction.
Flash-back. Au début des années 1970, dans la droite ligne du malthusianisme, le Club de Rome propage une nouvelle vague de peur en s’appuyant sur des craintes fournies par des ordinateurs : tout le monde a cru que la fin du pétrole annoncée pour 2000 était une vérité scientifique. À l’époque, la modélisation était innovante et donc attractive…
by Bonner Cohen, May 13, 2018 in CFACT
The Kremlin has masterminded an elaborate scheme to undermine American fossil-fuel production and distribution, concludes a report by the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.
Released March 1, the report, “Russian Attempts to Influence U.S. Domestic Energy Markets by Exploiting Social Media,” reveals how Russia has teamed up with U.S. and European environmental groups to use such popular outlets as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram to turn American public opinion against the domestic oil and natural gas industry.
With the United States having surpassed Russia as the world’s largest producer of natural gas, and now ranking as the world’s fastest-growing producer of oil, the Russians have reason to fear what is more than a little competition. Saying America’s soaring energy development “poses a direct threat to Russian energy interests,” the report explains: …
by Andrea Ayemoba, May 21, 2018 in AfricaBusinessCommunities
Shell Nigeria Gas (SNG) Limited has increased its domestic gas distribution capacity by 150% over the last six months. The increase in capacity will enable the company to distribute more than 100 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (MMscf/d) to businesses in its western operations.
by Seismological Society of America, May 17, 2018 in ScienceDaily
The experiments conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researcher Kayla Kroll and her colleagues were prompted by a recent spike in induced earthquake activity related to oil and gas production in the U.S. and Canada. The rise in induced earthquakes has some scientists proposing changes in injection or production processes to reduce the fluid pressures that destabilize faults in these regions.
In their simulations, Kroll and colleagues “found that active management was most advantageous for wells that were closest to a fault. This scenario is most successful at reducing the total number of seismic events and also the maximum magnitude of those events,” Kroll said. In their simulations, a “close well” was one to four meters away from a fault (…)
by WEO, 2017 in IEA, May 2018
Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook 2017: the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies, the growing electrification of energy, the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, and the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States.
These shifts come at a time when traditional distinctions between energy producers and consumers are being blurred and a new group of major developing countries, led by India, moves towards centre stage.
How these developments play out and interact is the story of this year’s Outlook.
by Gary Ashton, May 12, 2018 in Investopedia
Disruption in Iran could force OPEC to adjust up production levels earlier than it had expected and could prompt U.S. shale drillers in West Texas to drill more. Despite these efforts to fill in for lost supply, analysts at Bank of America still expect oil to reach $100 per barrel in 2019.
OPEC and IEA Reports Up Next
On Monday, traders and analysts will get a look at the latest OPEC monthly oil market report. Key data to watch for are any additional upward revisions to world oil demand. Last month, OPEC revised 2018 world demand growth to 1.63 million barrels per day. Total demand for the year is forecast to average 98.7 million barrels per day. Traders will also be looking at OPEC’s world supply expectations. In last month’s report, OPEC said that it expects non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.71 million barrels per day in 2018, with the U.S. accounting for most of the supply growth.
by Oil & Energy Insider, May 11, 2018
Crude markets have seen a wave of bullish news in the last couple of weeks, and as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise and Venezuela falls further into crisis, upward pressure on prices is only increasing.
by S. Graham, May 9, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch
World fund managers predict a fall in the value of oil companies. According to a survey published last month in the United Kingdom, climate change risks will force a lower valuation of oil company stock prices within the next five years.
But despite many predictions of demise over the last 50 years, global consumption of hydrocarbon energy continues to grow
We’ve heard this many times before. In his address to the nation on April 18, 1977, President Jimmy Carter stated, “…we could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the world by the end of the next decade.”
by International Energy Agency, May 4, 2018
Energy produced offshore is a major component of global oil and natural gas supply and could provide an increasingly important source of renewable electricity. Resources are enormous, but offshore projects have to prove their worth in a changing market and policy context, amid a variety of pressures on the world’s oceans.
More than a quarter of today’s oil and gas supply is produced offshore, mostly in the Middle East, the North Sea, Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caspian Sea. While offshore oil production has been relatively stable since 2000, natural gas output from offshore fields has risen by more than 50% over the same period. Offshore electricity generation, mainly from wind, has increased rapidly in recent years, notably in the relatively shallow coastal waters of Europe’s North Sea.
Full report (.pdf, 80 pages)