Archives par mot-clé : Model(s)

Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations

by Steve McIntyre, November 18, 2017 in ClimateAudit


(…) What does this all mean? Are models consistent with observations or not?  Up to the recent very large El Nino, it seemed that even climate scientists were on the verge of conceding that models were running too hot, but the El Nino has given them a reprieve. After the very large 1998 El Nino, there was about 15 years of apparent “pause”. Will there be a similar pattern after the very large 2017 El Nino?

Israeli Astrophysicist rejects UN IPCC – Finds ‘the sun completely overturns the way we should see global warming’

by Dr. Shaviv, November 9, 2017 in ClimateDepot


(…)The body of evidence however clearly shows that the climate sensitivity is on the low side, about 1 to 1.5 degree increase per CO2 doubling. People in the climate community are scratching their heads trying to understand the so called hiatus in the warming. Where is the heat hiding? While in reality it simply points to a low sensitivity.

Freeman Dyson on ‘heretical’ thoughts about global warmimg

by Freeman Dyson, November 10, 2017 in WUWT FREEMAN DYSON is professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton. His professional interests are in mathematics and astronomy


My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak.

But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do.

New Literature Strongly Suggests CO2 Residence Time In The Atmosphere Is Exaggerated!

by Dr S. Lüning and Prof. F. Vahrenholt, March 26, 2017,  in NoTricksZone


In addition, we consider temperature dependent natural emission and absorption rates, by which the paleoclimatic CO2 variations and the actual CO2 growth rate can well be explained. The anthropogenic contribution to the actual CO2concentration is found to be 4.3%, its fraction to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era is 15% and the average residence time 4 years.”

What You Won’t Find in the New National Climate Assessment

by Dr Pat Michaels, November 3, 2017 in WUWT


Under the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the federal government has been charged with producing large National Climate Assessments (NCA), and today the most recent iteration has arrived. It is typical of these sorts of documents–much about how the future of mankind is doomed to suffer through increasingly erratic weather and other tribulations. It’s also missing a few tidbits of information that convincingly argue that everything in it with regard to upcoming 21st century climate needs to be taken with a mountain of salt.

 

A skeptic attempts to break the ‘pal review’ glass ceiling in climate modeling

by Pat Frank, October 23, 2017 in WUWT


Regular readers at Anthony’s Watts Up With That will know that for several years, since July 2013 in fact, I have been trying to publish an analysis of climate model error.

The analysis propagates a lower limit calibration error of climate models through their air temperature projections. Anyone reading here can predict the result. Climate models are utterly unreliable. For a more extended discussion see my prior WUWT post on this topic (thank-you Anthony).

Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration

by T. Edimburgh and J. Day, November 21, 2017, in TheCryopshere


In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend and a lack of information about sea ice coverage in the pre-satellite period limits our ability to quantify the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change and robustly validate climate models