Archives par mot-clé : Model(s)

CLIMATE CHANGE WILL TAKE LONGER, SAY SCIENTISTS

by Dr David Whitehouse, September 19, 2017 in GWPF


The study is published in the journal Nature Geoscience by a team of scientists led by Richard Millar of the University of Oxford. It has recalculated the carbon budget for limiting the Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above temperatures seen in the late 19th century. It had been widely assumed that this stringent target would prove unachievable, but the new study would appear to give us much more time to act if we want to stay below it.

See also here and  here

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

by Abdul Malik et al., July 31, 2017, Climate Dynamics, Springer


In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854–1999), climate proxies (AD 1600–1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600–1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability.

Paleoclimate Cycles are Key Analogs for Present Day (Holocene) Warm Period

by Renee Hannon, August 4, 2017 in WUWT


Detailed pattern correlation of Earth’s temperature changes during the past 450 kyrs reveals observations about several cyclic climate patterns. The past four glacial cycles are increasing in duration from 89 kyrs to 119 kyrs. Within these glacial cycles, two warm periods occur about 200 kyrs apart and have strikingly similar temperature characteristics.

During the last 450 kyrs, the five major warm onsets with rapidly increasing temperatures are triggered by increases in the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth’s orbit. The nearly concurrent increase in these three astronomical forces appears a necessary component for a major warm onset. Obliquity is the dominate control for ending these major warm periods and entering a cooling phase. 

Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years

by H.J. Lüdecke and C.A. Weiss, August 2017


We provide a new confirmation for the link between solar activity and climate cycles by wavelet analysis showing a remarkably good agreement of the power of the ~190 – year period for temperatures and solar activity over 9000 years (see Fig.4. lower panel). As (Fig.2 and Table 2 ) show, the periods of ~1000 and ~460 years are also apparently common in records of temperatures and cosmogenic nuclides.

See also here and  here

The IPCC gives us good news about climate change, but we don’t listen

by Larry Kummer, July 29, 2017, in WUWT

Now that the alarmists have had their day trumpeting the IPCC’s worst case scenario (it’s unlikely and becoming more so), let’s look at their best case scenario (hidden by journalists). The risk probabilities are asymmetric: the good news is more likely than the bad news. This is inspirational, telling people that we can make a better world.

Primary energy use per year (in EJ), by source


Scientists Find At Least 75% Of The Earth Has Not Warmed In Recent Decades

by Kenneth Richard, July 20, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch


As a new scientific paper (Turney et al., 2017) indicates, the Southern Ocean encompasses 14% of the Earth’s surface. And according to regional temperature measurements that have apparently not been subjected to warming “corrections” by data adjusters, the Southern Ocean has been cooling in recent decades.