3000-Year-Old Trees Excavated Under Icelandic Glacier

by P. Homewood, December 12, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Ancient tree stumps found under Breiðamerkurjökull glacier in Southeast Iceland are confirmed to be roughly 3,000 years old. RÚV reports.

A specialist believes the remarkably well-preserved stumps were part of a massive forest that disappeared after a long period of a warm climate.

One of the tree stumps was found in Breiðamerkursandur a couple of months ago, and once it was being salvaged a second, larger one was found. The smaller one was sent for examination while the larger will be examined at a later time.

Examinations revealed that the tree stump died very quickly at 89-years-old in the month of June. Nearby sediments and data suggest that the glacier itself was the culprit.

The tree stumps are from a period when Iceland was covered in forests. Even though 9th century Norse settlers reported vast forests across the country, it is believed that 3,000 years ago, the forests were much larger, even reaching the highlands. Approximately 500 BC, the climate became colder and glaciers began to form, destroying parts of the forests.

The 3,000-year-old remains of the forest are very well preserved and will be researched thoroughly. “It is absolutely incredible just how well preserved this tree stump is, having been buried under a glacier and that it still looks so whole, as opposed to being all wrinkled up like many of the specimens we have found.” Once examinations conclude, the water will be extracted from the tree stump and it will be filled with wax instead, allowing it to be exhibited.

https://www.icelandreview.com/news/3000-year-old-trees-excavated-under-glacier/

Discovering ancient forests under receding glaciers is not confined to Iceland. Remains of trees dating back to the Middle Ages have been found under the Juneau and Exit Glaciers in Alaska, as well under glaciers in Patagonia.

Tree stumps have also turned up under Swiss glaciers, carbon dated to about 4000 years ago.

The simple reality is that glaciers worldwide expanded enormously during the Little Ice Age, arguably to their greatest extent since the Ice Age. Despite decades of retreat since the 19thC, they are still abnormally large by historical standards.

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

by P. Homewood, December 11, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


The Atlantic hurricane season has now officially ended, so let’s check the numbers.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2019

There have been six hurricanes in total, including three major ones, Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo. Coincidentally both numbers are the same as the average since 1950.

According to NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, many hurricanes were missed in the earlier decades. Systematic aircraft reconnaissance began in 1944, but this only covered half of the Atlantic basin, until daily satellite monitoring started in 1966.

Victoria Secrets Exposed…More Falsehoods By Spiegel, Guardian… Victoria Falls Variability Nothing To Do With CO2.

by P. Gosselin, December 11, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Not CO2 related

A little later in the report we also find a flow diagram for the Victoria Falls:

Figure: Water flow rate-volume at the Victoria Falls an den 1907-2006. Source: Beilfuss 2012 (immediately pdf)

We see a strong variability from year to year. On a scale of several decades, the period 1940-1980 is characterized by particularly high flow rates. The early 20th century was rather dry. A coupling to the 60-year-old ocean cycle offers itself. The Pacific is far away, but the wet Zambezi phase fits quite well into the negative PDO:

igure: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Source: By Giorgiogp2 – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=13297650

 

Snow Record – Submerged Alps with extraordinary accumulations

by Robert, December 7, 2019 in IceAgeNow


In the face of Global Warming we see scenarios from the ice age.

The Alps were submerged in snow, with truly dramatic accumulations up to 1,500m above sea level, especially considering that we are still at the end of November.

Here are the incredible data:

295cm of snow on the ground at Rifugio Gastaldi – Balme (2.659m asl),
263cm at Macugnaga Rifugio Zamboni (2.075m),
239cm at Rifugio Vaccarone – Giaglione (2.745) m),
227cm at Lago Agnel – Ceresole Reale (2.304m),
222cm at Lago Dietro La Torre – Usseglio (2.360m) and Bocchetta Delle Pisse – Alagna Valsesia (2.410m),
197cm at Larecchio – Montecrestese (1.860m) and Lemon Pancani – Limone Piemonte (1.875m),
191cm in Formazza (2.453m),
188cm in the Del Chiotas Dam – Entracque (2.020m),
185cmin Malciaussia – Usseglio (1,800m),
172cm at Passo Del Moro – Macugnaga (2.820m), 169cm in Clot Of Soma – Pragelato (2.150m),
166cm in Alpe Veglia – Varzo (1.740m),
164cm in Grange Martina – Giaglione (1.967m),
163cm Pian Giasset – Crissolo (2.150m) and Lago Pilone – Sauze D’oulx (2.280m),
156cm Rifugio Mondovi – Roccaforte Mondovi (1.760m),
152cm at Sommeiller – Bardonecchia (2.981m), 150cm in Pian Delle Baracche – Sampeyre (2.135m),
137cm in Alpe Devero – Baceno (1.634m),
129cm in Camparient – Trivero (1.515m),
124cm in Sestriere (2.020m).
Per approfondire http://www.meteoweb.eu/2019/11/meteo-alpi-sommerse-neve-piemonte-sestriere/1350156/#U03AfALMXOVSWFCe.99

See incredible photos:
http://www.meteoweb.eu/2019/11/meteo-alpi-sommerse-neve-piemonte-sestriere/1350156/#1

A Geological Perspective on Sea Level Rise Acceleration

by David Middleton, December 9, 2019 in WUWT


There have been at least three recent peer-reviewed papers asserting an anthropogenic acceleration in the rate of sea level rise (SLR): Church & White, 2006 (CW06), Church & White, 2011 (CW11) and Nerem et al., 2018 (N18). N18 only covers the satellite era (since 1993) and might actually be correct, albeit irrelevant. The primary culprits in the SLR acceleration scam are CW06 and CW11. Two other recent peer-reviewed papers clearly shoot down the notion of a recent anthropogenic acceleration: Jevrejeva et al., 2008 (J08) and Jevrejeva et al., 2014 (J14). This post will focus on CW11 (updated through 2013) and J14.

J08 and J14 indicate that the acceleration, to the extent there is one, started 150-200 years ago, consistent with the end of neoglaciation and that a quasi-periodic fluctuation (~60-yr cycle) is present. CW06 and CW11 also note the 19th Century acceleration; but also assert a more recent acceleration, presumably due to anthropogenic global warming. This SLR acceleration is, at worst, innocuous.

Figure 1. Jevrejeva et al., 2014 (red) and Church & White, 2011 (green).
….

TRIBUNE. Pourquoi les affirmations catastrophistes sur le climat sont fausses

by M. Schellenberger, 10 décembre 2019 in LePoint


Pour l’écologiste pragmatique Michael Shellenberger, les déclarations apocalyptiques s’avèrent scientifiquement erronées et politiquement contre-productives.

Ces dernières semaines, les journalistes et les défenseurs de l’environnement ont fait un certain nombre de prédictions apocalyptiques sur l’impact du changement climatique. L’écologiste Bill McKibben a suggéré qu’en Australie, les incendies causés par le climat avaient rendu les koalas « pratiquement éteints ». Extinction Rebellion affirme : « Des milliards de gens mourront » et « la vie sur Terre est en train de s’éteindre ». Vice magazine soutient que « l’effondrement de la civilisation a peut-être déjà commencé ».

Peu ont plus attiré l’attention sur cette menace que la militante étudiante Greta Thunberg et la représentante démocrate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, sponsor du Green New Deal. Cette dernière prétend que « le monde va s’écrouler dans douze ans si nous ne nous attaquons pas au changement climatique ». Dans son nouveau livre, Thunberg affirme : « Vers 2030, nous serons en situation de déclencher une réaction en chaîne irréversible hors du contrôle humain, qui conduira à la fin de la civilisation telle que nous la connaissons. »

 

See also here: At UN Climate Summit, Alarmists Put Dogma Over Science

Climate Models Have Not Improved in 50 Years

by David Middleton, December 6, 2019 in WUWT


The accuracy of the failed models improved when they adjusted them to fit the observations… Shocking.

The AGU and Wiley currently allow limited access to Hausfather et al., 2019. Of particular note are figures 2 and 3. I won’t post the images here due to the fact that it is a protected limited access document.

Figure 2: Model Failure

Figure 2 has two panels. The upper panel depicts comparisons of the rates of temperature change of the observations vs the models, with error bars that presumably represent 2σ (2 standard deviations). According to my Mark I Eyeball Analysis, of the 17 model scenarios depicted, 6 were above the observations’ 2σ (off the chart too much warming), 4 were near the top of the observations’ 2σ (too much warming), 2 were below the observations’ 2σ (off the chart too little warming), 2 were near the bottom of the observations’ 2σ (too little warming), and 3 were within 1σ (in the ballpark) of the observations.

Figure 2. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response

2019 the Third Least-Chilly in the Satellite Temperature Record

by Roy Spencer, December 6, 2019 in WUWT


It’s that time of year again, when we are subjected to exaggerated climate claims such as in this Forbes article, 2019 Wraps Up The Hottest Decade In Recorded Human History. Given that the global average surface temperature is about 60 deg. F, and most of the climate protesters we see in the news are wearing more clothing than the average Key West bar patron, I would think that journalists striving for accuracy would use a more accurate term than “hottest”.

So, I am announcing that in our 41-year record of global satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, 2019 will come in as 3rd least-chilly.

For the decade 2010-2019, the satellite temperatures averaged only 0.15 C higher than in the previous decade (1990-1999). That’s less than a third of a degree F, which no one would even notice over 10 years.

If you are wondering how your neck of the woods has fared this year, the latest year-to-date plot of 2019 temperature departures from the 30-year average (1981-2010) shows the usual pattern of above- and below-normal, with little visual indication that the global average for 2019 is now running 0.36 deg. C above normal.

Ces villes qui ne se réchauffent pas

by Jean N., 6 décembre 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie


Non, le réchauffement de la planète n’est pas global comme l’affirment les médias. Selon la dernière version des données officielles de température fournies par le Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) de la NASA (les séries thermométriques terrestres GHCNv4), il existe dans le monde toute une série de villes, villages et régions où aucun réchauffement de la troposphère n’est observé au niveau du sol en fonction du temps. Ceci est d’ailleurs confirmé par la récente étude de Lansner & Pedersen publiée en 2018 (et qui avait fait l’objet d’un article ici-même), mais aussi par d’autres publications qui analysent par exemple le “warming hole” des Etats-Unis (Partridge et al. 2018). Et pourtant, dans ces régions qui ne se réchauffent pas, le taux atmosphérique de CO2 a bel et bien augmenté de manière significative (voir ici). Le but du présent article est d’abord de vous présenter 12 de ces villes et régions. Nous verrons ensuite que le rôle attribué au CO2 est exagéré et que de nombreux facteurs, méconnus, entrent en jeu et jouent probablement un rôle dominant.

1. Présentation de quelques villes et régions qui ne se réchauffent pas.

Dans les lignes qui suivent, les données officielles de température seront utilisées. La qualité de ces données a bien entendu été contrôlée par les gestionnaires locaux des stations météorologiques, et puis par le GISS lui-même. Ne seront présentées que les séries de températures moyennes annuelles. Les données ont ensuite été ajustées pour tenir compte des effets non climatiques, des changements géographiques éventuels de stations de mesure, ainsi que de l’effet de chaleur urbain qui a été déduit. Il s’agit donc de données nettoyées, appelées “GHCN-adj-homogenized”. Chacun peut se les procurer librement sur le site web du GISS (il suffit de cliquer sur un endroit du monde sur la carte ici).

1.1. Commençons par Nashville aux Etats-Unis (Figure 1). Il s’agit de la capitale de l’État du Tennessee qui comptait 668 347 habitants en 2014. Nashville possède un climat subtropical humide (dans la Classification de Köppen) avec des hivers doux qui peuvent être modérément froids et des étés chauds et humides. Les moyennes mensuelles varient entre 3,4 °C pour le mois le plus froid (janvier) et 26,6 °C pour le mois le plus chaud (juillet). On peut voir sur la Figure 1 la relative stabilité de la température moyenne annuelle oscillant autour de 13°C, et ce depuis 1982 (la droite de régression possède une pente très faible, proche de zéro, et valant +0,0061).

 

Figure 1. Température moyenne annuelle de Nashville (Tennessee, USA) entre 1982 et 2018.

 

Revolt brewing against EU’s ‘unrealistic’ climate goals

by Frédéric Simon, December 5, 2019 in EurActiv


Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has threatened to veto Europe’s goal of becoming the first climate-neutral continent in the world by 2050, adding his voice to a growing chorus of discontent as EU leaders prepare for heated climate discussions at a summit in Brussels next week.

In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Babiš said, however, he could still change his mind in exchange for higher financial support from the EU and better investment conditions for nuclear energy.

Private investors are reluctant to pour money into new nuclear power plants, which face escalating costs and growing competition from cheap renewables. New plants are dependent on state support, which require prior approval by the European Commission’s powerful competition department.

“Nuclear plants construction may require changes in the state aid rules,” Babiš wrote in the letter, according to Czech daily Hospodářské noviny, a media partner of EURACTIV.cz.

Funding for new nuclear plants is also an issue for Poland, one of the last remaining EU countries opposed to the bloc’s proposed climate neutrality objective for 2050. At the last EU summit in October, Warsaw called for “significantly larger” amounts of funding under the EU’s next long-term budget before signing up to the 2050 goal.

 …

Cartology Affirms Relative Sea Levels Were Similar To Or HIGHER Than Now During The Little Ice Age

by K. Richard, December 5, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Surprisingly accurate nautical maps created the 17th to 19th centuries strongly suggest coastal land area in both hemispheres were quite similar to today’s. There is even evidence relative sea levels were higher than now back then.

Image Source: Etsy.com

Globally, coasts have grown since the 1980s

Between 1985 and 2015, satellite observations indicate the world’s coasts gained 13,565 km²  more land area than they had lost to the seas (Donchyts et al., 2016).

This means more coastal land area is above sea level today than in the 1980s.

This surprises scientists, as they “expected the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise,” but instead they observed “coasts are growing all over the world.”

UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2019: +0.55 deg. C

by Roy Spencer, December 2, 2019 in WUWT


The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2019 was +0.55 deg. C, up from the October value of +0.46 deg. C.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

The UAH LT global anomaly image for November, 2019 should be available in the next few days here.

The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:

Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt

 

Some Facts About Energy

by Wallace Manheimer, December 5, 2019 in WUWT


The industrial age, namely using coal, oil and gas to generate power instead of human and animal muscle, and wind and solar have lifted billions out of poverty. Before the industrial age, civilization was a thin veneer on top of a vast mound of human misery, that civilization maintained by such things as slavery, colonies, and tyranny. The recent calls to reject fossil fuel and go back to the former ways motivates one to see in a quantitative way just how important fossil fuel is and how we rely on it. It takes some numbers, which generally bore people as compared to generalities and preposterous claims, but numbers are important, and in fact are simpler to understand than the vague generalities.

First let us look at the power that the world uses. BP is one of many organizations that publishes this data. Below is their graph of the power used by different parts of the world at various years and with projections for the future. The unit on the vertical axis is billions of tons per year of oil equivalent. Since this is not the usual units we think of, just think of a billion tons of oil per year as approximately equal to a trillion Watts, or a terawatt (TW). These Watts are the same units we are all use to, for instance we know what a 100-Watt light bulb is. Keep it on for 10 hours and you have used a kilowatt hour of energy and added about a dime to your electric bill. Here we will reduce all units of power to Watts, so everything will be in the same units and we can compare the power usage of one aspect of our lives to another.

 

Some thoughts and photos from #COP25 in Madrid- What “climate emergency”?

by A. Watts, December 4, 2019 in WUWT


 

When my live feed presentation is ready on YouTube, I’ll add it.

My #COP25 video presentation

In short, here’s my impression of COP25:

It was a whole lot of hot air talking about cooling the planet, shouting it is “time for action”, while putting out hands asking for money.

The conference seemed subdued compared to the bigger shindigs of Copenhagen in 2009 (which ClimateGate successfully skewered) and Paris in 2015 which got hamstrung by Donald Trump a year later.

Perhaps it was due to the last-minute switch from Chile, perhaps people are realizing these conferences are pointless.

For certain, we live in interesting times.

Next week I’m off to the AGU convention in San Francisco. But, I have to shop for galoshes first.

 

ORANGE ‘HEAVY SNOW’ ALERTS ISSUED ACROSS SPAIN

by Cap Allon, November 11, 2019 in Electroverse


Following Spain’s weekend of surprise early-season-snow, ORANGE ALERTS have now been issued across the country as the prospect of yet more severe wintry-weather looms — residents have been urged to prepare.

Spain’s state weather agency AEMET had predicted last weekend’s “polar front” and subsequently placed parts of Mallorca and Menorca on orange alert. Now though, an additional 33 provinces have been placed under winter-weather alerts across the country -from Lugo in the north, to Malaga in the south- as further Arctic plunges appear set to engulf ALL of Western/Southwestern Europe this week.

A staggering 40 cm (15.8 inches) of snow buried Northern Spain’s ski resorts over the weekend, including Fuentes de Invierno, in Asturias — as reported by murciatoday.com.

Snow also fell in more unexpected areas, like Port de Pollenca a small town in Northern Majorca.

https://globalcryospherewatch.org

Scientists: Mars Has A 95% CO2 Atmosphere…But ‘There Is Little To Retain Heat On The Planet’

by K. Richard, December 2, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Earth’s atmosphere contains 400 ppm CO2 (0.04%). Mars has a 950,000 ppm (95%) CO2 atmosphere. But Mars has surface temperatures that are about -75°C colder on average than Earth’s because atmospheric density, or pressure, is the “game changer” largely determining planetary temperatures.

Surface temperatures on Mars

The average surface temperature of a planetary body is significantly determined by its distance from the Sun.

According to the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Mars is close enough to the Sun to have its surface temperatures reach 35°C (95°F) at the equator during summer.

During winter, however, the Martian temperature dips to -90°C (-130°F).

The average surface temperature for Mars is about -60°C (-80°F).

China plans new coal plants, trims support for clean energy

by The Japan Times, December 2, 2019


As world leaders gather in Spain to discuss how to slow the warming of the planet, a spotlight falls on China — the top emitter of greenhouse gases.

China burns about half the coal used globally each year. Between 2000 and 2018, its annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for about 30 percent of the world’s total. Yet it’s also the leading market for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, and it manufactures about two-thirds of solar cells installed worldwide.

“We are witnessing many contradictions in China’s energy development,” said Kevin Tu, a Beijing-based fellow with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “It’s the largest coal market and the largest clean energy market in the world.”

That apparent paradox is possible because of the sheer scale of China’s energy demands.

But as China’s economy slows to the lowest level in a quarter century — around 6 percent growth, according to government statistics — policymakers are doubling down on support for coal and other heavy industries, the traditional backbones of China’s energy system and economy. At the same time, the country is reducing subsidies for renewable energy.

COP25 : LA PLACE DU NUCLÉAIRE DANS LA TRANSITION ÉNERGÉTIQUE MONDIALE

by l’EnerGeek, 3 décembre 2019


Lundi 2 décembre, la COP25 s’ouvre dans un climat tendu à Madrid. Le 28 novembre dernier, le Parlement Européen a décrété l’urgence climatique. Le Parlement appelle la COP25 à “prendre des mesures audacieuses et ambitieuses”. Et la plus ambitieuse de toutes pourrait être une résolution votée en faveur de l’énergie nucléaire. Car avec la mise en place d’un nouveau mix électrique mondial, cette énergie bas carbone est plus que jamais en bonne position pour devenir le moteur de la transition énergétique.

Le Parlement Européen soutient le nucléaire

Le texte du Parlement Européen revient sur l’importance de l’énergie nucléaire dans le cadre de la transition énergétique et estime que “l’énergie nucléaire peut jouer un rôle dans la réalisation des objectifs climatiques, car elle n’émet pas de gaz à effet de serre et peut également assurer une part significative de la production d’électricité en Europe ; considère néanmoins que, en raison des déchets qu’elle génère, cette énergie nécessite une stratégie à moyen et long terme prenant en compte les avancées technologiques (laser, fusion, etc.) visant à améliorer la durabilité de l’ensemble du secteur”

Valérie Faudon, de la Société Française d’énergie nucléaire (SFEN), François Momboisse, Tristan Kamin et autres experts, consultants ou ingénieurs se sont félicités sur les réseaux sociaux de cette prise de position estimant que le nucléaire est “une solution efficace pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique, aux côtés des autres énergies bas carbone.” A l’inverse, Michèle Rivasi, députée européenne, a par exemple expliqué par le biais d’un tweet pourquoi elle a voté contre cette résolution :

Energy Returned on Capital Invested: Ohio “Shale” vs Green “Schist”

by D. Middleton, December 2, 2019 in WUWT


Ohio’s shale energy industry attracts nearly $78 billion in investment since 2011
11/20/2019

COLUMBUS, OHIO – Total investment in Ohio’s resource rich shale energy sector has reached $78 billion since tracking began in 2011, according to a Cleveland State University (CSU) study.

Prepared for JobsOhio, the report represents the most recent data available and covers shale investment through the second half of 2018. Earlier in the year, IHS Markit released estimates that by 2040, the Utica and Marcellus shale region, of which Ohio is a significant part, will supply nearly half of all U.S. natural gas production.

The study from CSU’s Energy Policy Center at the Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs, showed drilling investments were slightly down in the second half of 2018 compared to the first half, but total upstream investments were up. Total shale-related investment in Ohio for the second half of 2018, including upstream, midstream and downstream, was around $3.82 billion. Total investment from 2011-2018 totaled about $77.7 billion.

[…]

World Oil

Climatologist On The State Of Climate Change Ahead Of COP25

by J. Curry, December 2, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch


The UN Climate Change Conference this week in Madrid provides an important opportunity to reflect on the state of the public debate surrounding climate change.

The UN Climate Conference (COP25) is beginning today in Madrid. I’ve been invited to write an op-ed for a newspaper in Madrid, which I assume will be published sometime this week (in Spanish). Below is the text of my op-ed.

JC op-ed

The UN Climate Change Conference this week in Madrid provides an important opportunity to reflect on the state of the public debate surrounding climate change.

Most of the world’s governments are prioritizing energy security, affordability and industrial competitiveness over commitments made for the Paris climate agreement.

Continuer la lecture de Climatologist On The State Of Climate Change Ahead Of COP25

Doomsday awaits? NASA predicts the odds of two asteroids that are now headed toward earth

by Nirmal Narayanan, November 30, 2019 in InternationalBusinessTimes


Several space experts believe that earth will face an extinction event following a dreaded asteroid hits

It was on last July that NASA discovered a giant asteroid named 2019 ND7. This doomsday rock is more than 200 meters wide, and a potential hit on the planet could wipe out a city within a fraction of a second. Experts believe that a potential collision with 2019 ND7 will unleash energy equivalent to more than 1,000 atomic bombs exploded in Hiroshima during World War II, and millions of people will lose life instantly.

However, the chances of asteroid 2019 ND7 hitting the earth are very small. The United States space agency has calculated the risk at 1 in 310,000, which means there is a 99.99968 chance that this dangerous space rock will miss the earth. 2019 WG2 is a small asteroid when compared to 2019 ND7.

The asteroid is 35 meters wide, and NASA has calculated the risk at 1 in 4,000. As per NASA, 2019 ND7 may crash into the earth between 2097-2117 on 20 different occasions. On the other hand, 2019 WG2 may hit between 2098 and 2119 on 56 different occasions.

Is coal power winning the US-China trade war?

by P.  Homewood, December 1, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


China has signalled that coal power will be a top priority within national energy policy as the government prepares its next Five Year Plan (2021-25).

On 11 October, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a meeting of the National Energy Commission in Beijing that emphasised China’s energy security and coal utilisation and downplayed the importance of a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

Each meeting of the commission, which was established in 2010 and has met only four times, has had a significant impact on policymaking. Chaired by Premier Li and attended by more than 20 chiefs of China’s ministries and bureaus, the commission is the top body for coordinating energy policy.

Why is energy security back at the top of the agenda?

Li told the conference: “The government should diversify energy supply to improve energy security… enhance domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts, and promote oil and gas reserves and production, in order to improve oil and gas self-sufficiency”.

The renewed focus on energy security comes amid an increase in domestic consumption of oil and gas, which is largely being met through imports. China’s dependence on energy imports rose from 9% in 2014 to more than 20% in 2018.

China’s domestic crude oil production has declined and efforts to tap unconventional sources of natural gas, such as shale gas and coalbed methane, have faltered.

Other causes for concern lie outside China. The ongoing trade dispute with the US is a threat to the energy trade between the two superpowers, and supplies from the Middle East are at risk from mounting instability in the region.

Geothermal Energy: The Great COP25 Climate Surprise?

by Eric Worrall, November 30, 2019 in WUWT


For a long time Geothermal energy has been an expensive joke, even for people who claim solar and wind power is viable. History is littered with Geothermal projects which failed to live up to their early promise, such as the Tim Flannery inspired Cooper Basin project, which obliterated at least $90 million in government grant money before the project was abandoned.

But there are some hints that COP25 might include an attempt to breath new government money into this failed renewable energy technology.

From Chile, posted in April this year

Three Graphs

by Kip Hansen, November 30, 2019 in WUWT


Now an annotated version of the second graph:

Here we have the second graph 1850-2015, with the global Average Surface Temperature anomaly (again — baseline 15 CE)  but I have dropped in a smaller window, on the left, bringing forward  the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) — the years 100-800 CE (same scale) — to illustrate the difference between the peak Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST)  of the Medieval Warm Period to the most current GAST on the graph (2015).

This exposes the ubiquitous trick of the Climate Debate, in which Global Temperatures are [almost] always shown only from the depths of the Little Ice Age (clearly marked on the first graph by Gebbie), resulting in images similar to Gebbie’s Figure 2 — despite the fact that most 2 millennia reconstructions clearly show the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods as generally in the same range as the Modern Warm Period.   Given the acknowledged range of error  in any temperature reconstruction and in modern estimates of global surface temperatures (today, in absolute temperatrures,  around +/- 0.5ºC  or a range of 1ºC)  — there may be little, if any,  significant-to-the-global-environment difference  between the two periods.

The Medieval Warm period did not result in a “Climate Catastrophe”  and the [iffy] little additional 0.2°C  seen today  is very unlikely to spark a modern Climate Catastrophe either.

SAN FRANCISCO TIES 1896 RECORD FOR COLDEST NOVEMBER DAY EVER!

by Cap Allon, November 30, 2019 in Electroverse


The mercury in San Francisco reached a high of just 8.8C (48F) on Thursday, November 28, tying the 1896 (solar minimum of cycle 12) record for the city’s lowest-max temp ever recorded in November.

 

And San Francisco wasn’t alone in dealing with below-average temperatures late last week. According to the National Weather Service, much of the interior North Bay suffered sub-zero readings overnight Thursday:

Novato Airport recorded a nipple-hardening -5C (23F).

Santa Rosa and Napa County Airport dipped to -3.3C (26F).

Sonoma Airport bottomed out at -2.8C (27F).

While temps touched freezing point at Livermore Airport.

2.8C (37F) at Oakland Airport and San Jose.

And 5C (41F) in San Francisco.

(Readings all highly unusual for the time of year).

 

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse