“…it is the change in temperature compared to what we’ve been used to that matters.” – Part 1

by Bob Tisdale, December 8, 2018 in WUWT


In this post, we’re going to present monthly TMIN and TMAX Near-Land Surface Air Temperature data for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (not in anomaly form) in an effort to add a little perspective to global warming. And at the end of this post, I’m asking for your assistance in preparing a post especially for you, the visitors to this wonderful blog WattsUpWithThat.

INTRODUCTION FOR THE “GLOBAL WARMING IN PERSPECTIVE” SERIES

A small group of international unelected bureaucrats who serve the United Nations now wants to limit the rise of global land+ocean surface temperatures to no more 1.5 deg C from pre-industrial times…even though we’ve already seen about 1.0 deg C of global warming since then. So we’re going to put that 1.0 deg C change in global surface temperatures in perspective by examining the ranges of surface temperatures “we’ve been used to” on our lovely shared home Earth.

The source of the quote in the title of this post is Gavin Schmidt, who is the Director of the NASA GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies). It is from a 2014 post at the blog RealClimate, and, specifically, that quote comes from the post Absolute temperatures and relative anomalies (Archived here.). The topic of discussion for that post at RealClimate was the wide span of absolute global mean temperatures [GMT, in the following quote] found in climate models. Gavin wrote (my boldface):

Marché européen du carbone : stop ou encore

by Jean-Pierre Schaeken, 7 décembre 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie


Le système d’échange de quotas d’émission de l’UE,connu sous l’acronyme SEQE-EU ou en anglais  EU ETS, est instrument utilisé pour réduire les émissions de Gaz à Effet de Serre (GES) ou de CO2 pour faire court.  Il repose sur un principe de plafonnement et d’échange des droits d’émission. Il a été adopté par la Commission Environnement du Parlement européen, le 13 octobre 2003.

Peak Oil Postponed Again: “USGS Identifies Largest Continuous Oil and Gas Resource Potential Ever”… And it’s in the Permian Basin

by David Middleton, December 7, 2018 in WUWT


The “amazing” thing is that this isn’t a “new” oil discovery.  It’s just a realization that a lot more oil and gas can be produced from these formations than was previously imagined.

The Permian Basin a nearly infinite resource.  It seems as if there will always be more hydrocarbons to squeeze out of its numerous oil & gas reservoirs.  From a Warmunist perspective the Bone Spring and Wolfcamp are much worse than previously thought…

GREENLAND ICE SHEET SIXTH HIGHEST ON RECORD

by GWPF, December 7, 2018


The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) also performs daily simulations of how much ice or water the Ice Sheet loses or accumulates. Based on these simulations, an overall assessment of how the surface mass balance develops across the entire Ice Sheet is obtained (Fig. 4).

At the end of the 2018 season (31 August 2018), the net surface mass balance was 517 Gt, which means that 517 Gt more snow fell than the quantity of snow and ice that melted and ran out into the sea. This number only contains the balance at the surface, and thus not the total balance, which also includes melting of glaciers and calving of icebergs.

Although the total SMB  (Surface Mass Budget) for the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons are similar, development during the two seasons has been very different. Last year, the season began by gaining a lot of mass during the winter, whilst the development in SMB from the summer onwards reflected the long-term average. During the 2017-2018 season, SMB remained in line with the average from 1981-2010 until the summer, after which the development in SMB was higher than average.

The clever ruse of rising sea levels

by J.  Lehr & T. Harris, December 6, 2018 in WUWT


For the past 50 years, scientists have been studying climate change and the possibility of related sea level changes resulting from melting ice and warming oceans. Despite the common belief that increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere could result in catastrophic sea level rise, there is no evidence to support this fear. Tax monies spent trying to solve this non-existent problem are a complete waste.

The Increasing Surface Mass Balance of Two Antarctic Glaciers

by Engel, Z.  et al., December 6, 2018 in CO2Sci/J.ofGlaciology


The polar regions of the Earth have long been depicted as canary-in-the-coal-mine sentinels of climate change, given that climate models project that CO2-induced global warming will manifest itself here, first and foremost, compared to other planetary latitudes. Consequently, researchers are frequently examining the Arctic and Antarctic for evidence of recent climate change.

Clearly, as demonstrated here and in other studies (see, for example, The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists and the references therein) there is a canary in the Antarctic alright, but it is alive and well. And these counter-observations do not bode well for climate models and their projections of CO2-induced global warming.

Figure 1. Surface mass-balance records for glaciers around the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Source: Engel et al. (2018).

CO2 Emissions Hit Record Highs In 2018, Despite Billions Spent On UN Climate Summits

by Michael Bastach, December 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch


Global carbon dioxide emissions will likely hit record highs this year, according to a new report released Wednesday as United Nations diplomats meet in Poland to hash out details of the Paris climate accord.

Global emissions will rise roughly 3 percent to 37.1 gigatons in 2018, according to the Global Carbon Project (GCP).

The rise in emissions was largely fueled by an uptick in coal-fired power generation in China and India.

“Emissions in China, India, and the US are expected to increase in 2018, while emissions in the [European Union] are expected to decline, and all other countries combined will most likely increase,” reads the report by GCP, which tracks emissions.

The Arctic: we don’t know as much about environmental change in the far north as we’d like to think

by Charles the moderator, December 5, 2018 in WUWT


From The Conversation

December 4, 2018 9.58am EST

The first International Polar Year, held over 1882–1883, was an important event for science. The year was the brainchild of Austrian explorer Karl Weyprecht who, after a few years on different research missions, realised that scientists were missing the big picture by not sharing information with each other.

In 1875, at the annual meeting of German Scientists and Physicians in Graz, Austria, he proposed the setting up of an observational network of research stations to monitor the Arctic climate. It was the beginning of collaborative research in the region. Today, data collected 134 years ago on temperature, air pressure, or wind speed is still freely available.

There have been two more International Polar Year events since that inaugural one, most recently in 2007–2008, along with numerous other collaborative expeditions and research missions aimed at understanding aspects of Arctic biology, ecology, climate or geology.

COP 24: The Church Of Climate Fear

by David Wojic, December 5, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch


The mainstream press coverage of the beginning of the Katowice climate summit is sad but fascinating.

There is a uniformly dogmatic sense of urgency based on fear, with very little news and a great deal of preaching.

Fear is the dominant theme.

I truly pity the people who hold these false beliefs, as they must be afraid of the future. But I am not sympathetic with the alarmism, because it makes people dangerous.

The preachers are calling on the faithful to change the world we live in, and not in a good way. Fear makes people angry and angry people are dangerous.

Here are just three examples of alarmist news coverage of the Katowice climate summit, a few among many.

Uranium in mine dust could dissolve in human lungs

by American Chemical Society, December 5, 2018 in ScienceDaily


New Mexico contains hundreds of historic uranium mines. Although active uranium mining in the state has ceased, rates of cardiovascular and metabolic disease remain high in the population residing close to mines within the Navajo Nation. According to a new study in ACS’ journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters, inhaled uranium in dusts from the mines could be a factor.

Volcanoes fed by ‘mush’ reservoirs rather than molten magma chambers

by Imperial College London, December 4, 2018 in ScienceDaily


Volcanoes are not fed by molten magma formed in large chambers finds a new study, overturning classic ideas about volcanic eruptions.

Instead, the study suggests that volcanoes are fed by so-called ‘mush reservoirs’ — areas of mostly solid crystals with magma in the small spaces between the crystals.

Our understanding of volcanic processes, including those leading to the largest eruptions, has been based on magma being stored in liquid-filled ‘magma’ chambers — large, underground caves full of liquid magma. However, these have never been observed.

The new study, by researchers at Imperial College London and the University of Bristol and published today in Nature, suggests the fundamental assumption of a magma chamber needs a re-think.

Evolutions récentes du CO2 atmosphérique (4/4)

by J.C. Maurin, 2 décembre 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie


Au XVIsiècle, dans une ultime tentative pour sauver le système de Ptolémée, on se résigna enfin à admettre la rotation des planètes autour du Soleil mais on conserva le dogme de la position centrale de la Terre par rapport au Soleil. Le dernier pas vers l’héliocentrisme dut finalement être franchi, à regret. Au XXIesiècle, Le GIEC adapte discrètement son Almageste : on lit dans la version de novembre 2018 du Résumé à l’intention des décideurs dès la première page, 1er encadré de l’introduction → “L’augmentation mondiale de la concentration en dioxyde de carbone est essentiellement due à l’utilisation des combustibles fossiles et aux changements d’affectation des terres”. Fin de cette première page → « La source principale de l’augmentation de la concentration du dioxyde de carbone dans l’atmosphère depuis l’époque préindustrielle provient de l’utilisation des combustibles fossiles ». La certitude absolue, naguère affichée, d’une origine 100% anthropique dans la hausse du CO2atmosphérique disparaît donc. Un modèle mixte est désormais implicitement admis. A cinq siècles de distance, le dernier pas reste toujours difficile à franchir. Le présent article aide à trouver le chemin de Damas.

 

Figure 1. Rappels des observations (1/4) et corrélations (2/4)

New Research: Methane Emissions From Livestock Have No Detectable Effect On The Climate

by Kenneth Richard, December 3, 2018 in NoTricksZone


Agrobiologist and scientific researcher Dr. Albrecht Glatzle, author of over 100 scientific papers and two textbooks, has published research that shows “there is no scientific evidence, whatsoever, that domestic livestock could represent a risk for the Earth’s climate” and that the “warming potential of anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions has been exaggerated”.

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse