Sea level rise: isostatic adjustment

by Judith Curry, June 23, 2018 in ClimateEtc.


Assuming that the uncertainty in GIA adjustments are ‘in the noise’ of global sea level rise may not be entirely justified.  The adjustments to the satellite data that emerged in the discussion between Morner and Nerem do not inspire confidence in the estimate of sea level rise from satellite data, and the low level of stated uncertainty strains credulity.

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Study provides less gloom and doom about Antarctica

by Anthony Watts, June 22, 2018 in WUWT


Antarctic ice sheet is melting, but rising bedrock below could slow it down

An international team, led by DTU Space at the Technical University of Denmark with Colorado State University, has found that the bedrock below the remote West Antarctic Ice Sheet is rising much more rapidly than previously thought, in response to ongoing ice melt.

The study, “Observed rapid bedrock uplift in the Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability,” reveals new insights on the geology of the region and its interaction with the ice sheet and is published in the journal Science. The authors noted that the findings have important implications in understanding and predicting the stability of the ice sheet and Earth’s rising sea levels.

The Failed Predictions Of James Hansen

by P. Homewood, June 22, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


“Thirty years of data have been collected since Mr. Hansen outlined his scenarios—enough to determine which was closest to reality. And the winner is Scenario C. Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16. Assessed by Mr. Hansen’s model, surface temperatures are behaving as if we had capped 18 years ago the carbon-dioxide emissions responsible for the enhanced greenhouse effect. But we didn’t. And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong. Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago…”

“Several more of Mr. Hansen’s predictions can now be judged by history. Have hurricanes gotten stronger, as Mr. Hansen predicted in a 2016 study? No. Satellite data from 1970 onward shows no evidence of this in relation to global surface temperature. Have storms caused increasing amounts of damage in the U.S.? Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show no such increase in damage, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product. How about stronger tornadoes? The opposite may be true, as NOAA data offers some evidence of a decline. The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious.”

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Energy Access Outlook 2017

by International Energy Agency, June 22, 2018 in IEA


Energy access is the “golden thread” that weaves together economic growth, human development and environmental sustainability. The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, and the adoption of SDG 7.1 specifically – the goal to ensure access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy for all by 2030 – established a new level of political recognition for energy’s central role in development.

Improvements in technologies are offering new opportunities for making significant progress on the SDG goal on electricity access.  The combination of declining costs for solar and decentralised solutions, cheaper and more efficient lighting and appliances, and new business models making use of digital, mobile-enabled platforms has increased the number of available solutions to cater to those currently without electricity access. But many challenges remain, particularly for clean cooking.

New World Atlas of Desertification shows unprecedented pressure on planet’s resources

by European Commission Joint Research Centre, June 21, 2018 in ScienceDaily


The main findings show that population growth and changes in our consumption patterns put unprecedented pressure on the planet’s natural resources:

  • Over 75% of the Earth’s land area is already degraded, and over 90% could become degraded by 2050.

  • Globally, a total area half of the size of the European Union (4.18 million km²) is degraded annually, with Africa and Asia being the most affected.

  • The economic cost of soil degradation for the EU is estimated to be in the order of tens of billions of euros annually.

  • Land degradation and climate change are estimated to lead to a reduction of global crop yields by about 10% by 2050. Most of this will occur in India, China and sub-Saharan Africa, where land degradation could halve crop production.

  • As a consequence of accelerated deforestation it will become more difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change

  • By 2050, up to 700 million people are estimated to have been displaced due to issues linked to scarce land resources. The figure could reach up to 10 billion by the end of this century.

Marchés pétroliers: l’OPEP+ a-t-elle toutes les cartes en main ?

by Samuel Furfari, 21 juin 2018, in ConnaissancedesEnergies


Ce week-end, le monde de l’énergie délaissera le Mondial de football pour s’intéresser à la rencontre ministérielle de l’OPEP à Vienne. Des grandes manœuvres sont en cours, non pas tellement pour décider des « allocations de production » – pléonasme employé par l’OPEP pour ne pas parler de « quotas de production », ce qui aurait une connotation négative – mais des positionnements géopolitiques dans le nouveau monde en construction.

Flash-back. Au début des années 1970, dans la droite ligne du malthusianisme, le Club de Rome propage une nouvelle vague de peur en s’appuyant sur des craintes fournies par des ordinateurs : tout le monde a cru que la fin du pétrole annoncée pour 2000 était une vérité scientifique. À l’époque, la modélisation était innovante et donc attractive…

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German National Daily ‘Die Welt’ On CO2 Reduction: “Why Has It Been 5 To Midnight 30 Years Long?”

by P. Gosselin, June 20, 2018 in NoTricksZone


Sustainable alarm, unending hoax. Commentary at Germany’s ‘Die Welt’: Why has the climate-last-chance alarm been blaring 30 years long now? And why has the planet today “suddenly” just been given yet another 20 years by experts?

Remember how in 2007 Al Gore warned we had only 10 more years to act?

Well, those 10 years have long since expired, and that deadline came and went without the planet changing much. Embarrassed, global warming alarmists quietly pushed the doomsday back once again. And this time it was for real.

This game has been going on for years now.

Today, business journalist Daniel Wetzel here in a commentary at German national daily Die Welt finally is wondering why it’s been “5 to midnight for 30 years now”!

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Ross McKitrick: All those warming-climate predictions suddenly have a big, new problem

by Ross McKitrick, June 20, 2018 in FinancialPost


One of the most important numbers in the world goes by the catchy title of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, or ECS. It is a measure of how much the climate responds to greenhouse gases. More formally, it is defined as the increase, in degrees Celsius, of average temperatures around the world, after doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and allowing the atmosphere and the oceans to adjust fully to the change. The reason it’s important is that it is the ultimate justification for governmental policies to fight climate change.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says ECS is likely between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, but it can’t be more precise than that. Which is too bad, because an enormous amount of public policy depends on its value. People who study the impacts of global warming have found that if ECS is low — say, less than two — then the impacts of global warming on the economy will be mostly small and, in many places, mildly beneficial.

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No. The Miocene is not an example of the “last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century”… Argh!

by David Middleton, June 19, 2018 in WUWT


From ARS Technica, one of the most incoherent things I’ve ever read…

The shocking thing is that Howard Lee has a degree in geology.  The fact that he makes his living as an “Earth Science writer” and not as a geologist might just be relevant.

Can the Miocene tell our future?  I’ll let Bubba’s mom answer that question:

 

Paris Accord Humiliation: 23 Of 28 EU States Graded “Poor” Or “Very Poor” On Achieving Climate Targets!

by P. Gosselin, June 19, 2018 in NoTricksZone


Not a single EU state is meeting its climate targets, a new analysis by CAN Europe finds.

It’s been close to three years since countries worldwide signed the Paris Agreement, which obligates nations pledge to commit themselves to intending (or something like that) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to “safeguard the planet’s future”.

The language of the Agreement is in fact non-binding, and so one wouldn’t be surprised to learn that some signatories might not be living up to the agreement’s spirit.

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A conversation with Prof. Richard Lindzen

by Grégoire Canlorbe, June 18, 2018 in WUWT


Richard Siegmund Lindzen is an American atmospheric physicist known for his work in the dynamics of the atmosphere, atmospheric tides, and ozone photochemistry. He has published more than 200 scientific papers and books. From 1983 until his retirement in 2013, he was Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He was a lead author of Chapter 7, “Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks,” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report on climate change. He has criticized the scientific consensus about climate change and what he has called “climate alarmism.”

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La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse