by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., January 16, 2019
Summary:The recently reported upward adjustment in the 1971-2010 Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase compared to the last official estimate from the IPCC is actually 11%, not 40%. The 40% increase turns out to be relative to the average of various OHC estimates the IPCC addressed in their 2013 report, most of which were rejected. Curiously, the new estimate is almost identical to the average of 33 CMIP climate models, yet the models themselves range over a factor of 8 in their rates of ocean warming. Also curious is the warmth-enhancing nature of temperature adjustments over the years from surface thermometers, radiosondes, satellites, and now ocean heat content, with virtually all data adjustments leading to more warming rather than less.
See also here
by Anthony Watts, January 16, 2019 in WUWT
I had a predictable and laughable Twitter dialog today with the editor of the bought and paid for climate activist site known as “The Carbon Brief”. He was bent out of shape because I pointed out that while he thought the reason for the stepping down of Lord Lawson at The Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK was due to the lack of traffic and interest in the organization, it [the lowered traffic] really is because of two reasons:
The public is getting bored with it, possibly due to all the fear-mongering promoted by irresponsible journalists.
There’s been a shift from the use of the term “global warming” to other terms, perhaps in a desperate bid to “keep it fresh”. …
by Dr. Jean N., 16 janvier 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie
La théorie radiative de l’effet de serre prédit que la température de la basse atmosphère augmente lorsque le taux de CO2 croît. Si l’on prend par exemple une très vaste région, comme la Chine centrale ou le Midwest américain, qui couvrent tous deux des centaines de milliers de km2, on devrait donc observer un accroissement des températures moyennes de la basse atmosphère en fonction du temps. Effectivement, dans ces régions, et comme pour tout l’hémisphère Nord, le taux de CO2 n’a fait qu’augmenter depuis le début des mesures par spectrométrie infra-rouge en 1959. Cependant, une étude récente vient de montrer que la température moyenne n’aurait pas augmenté dans ces vastes régions, et ce malgré l’augmentation du taux de CO2 atmosphérique. L’étude en question a été publiée dans Energy & Environment en 2018 par deux chercheurs danois de la Danish Technical University, Frank Lansner et Jens Pedersen. Il faut rester prudent, mais si cette étude est confirmée, il s’agirait d’un sérieux problème pour la théorie radiative de l’effet de serre.
Figure 1. Anomalie de température pour la Sibérie centrale entre 1900 et 2010 (voir article)
by P. Gosselin, January 12, 2019 in NoTricksZone
Yesterday we wrote about a study that told us the data do not support that weather blockings are occurring more often than they used to. Some alarmist media and scientists have claimed that the heavy snowfalls in the Alps are happening due to manmade global warming.
Swiss meteorologist: Such snowfalls “nothing unique” for Alps
Yesterday one of Europe’s most high profile meteorologists, Jörg Kachelmann, penned an opinion piece at t-online.de reminding the public that heavy snow events in the Alps, such as the one we are now experiencing, are in fact nothing unique and that it is not a catastrophe.
In the days ahead, many parts of the Alps are expecting up to another meter of new snow, yet, according to Kachelmann, this should not pose any problems to buildings and structures – if their construction indeed adhered to the applicable building codes.
“Nothing to do with climate change”
Kachelmann adds later in his t-online piece: “1. The snowfalls are nothing unique so far for the Alps. 2. They have nothing to do with climate change.”
by Patrick T. Brown, January 12, 2019 in WUWT
In late 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report on the impacts associated with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels (as of 2019 we are at about 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels) as well as the technical feasibility of limiting global warming to such a level. The media coverage of the report immediately produced a meme that continues to persist. The meme is some kind of variation of the following:
The IPCC concluded that we have until 2030 (or 12 years) to avoid catastrophic global warming
However, these headlines are essentially purveying a myth. I think it is necessary to push back against this meme for two main reasons:
1) It is false.
2) I believe that spreading this messaging will ultimately undermine the credibility of the IPCC and climate science more generally.
Taking these two points in turn:
1) The IPCC did not conclude that society has until 2030 to avoid catastrophic global warming.
by P. Gosselin, January 11, 2019 in NoTricksZone
However, a recent paper authored by Elisabeth A. Barnes, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, says the data to support this just aren’t there.
Expected snow depths by January 15. Chart: WXCharts.EU.
by JoNova, January 12, 2019
Anastasios Tsonis is emeritus distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He is the author of more than 130 peer reviewed papers and nine books. He is just retired, and finally able to speak his mind.
The overblown and misleading issue of global warming
by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, January 10, 2019 in WUWT
The prolonged el Niño of 2016-2017, not followed by a la Niña, has put paid to the great Pause of 18 years 9 months in global warming that gave us all such entertainment while it lasted. However, as this annual review of global temperature change will show, the credibility gap between predicted and observed warming remains wide, even after some increasingly desperate and more or less openly prejudiced ever-upward revisions of recent temperatures and ever-downward depressions in the temperatures of the early 20th century in most datasets with the effect of increasing the apparent rate of global warming. For the Pause continues to exert its influence by keeping down the long-run rate of global warming.
by P. Homewood, January 9, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Just last March, the Guardian was trying to panic us about record lows in Arctic sea ice during last winter.
Back in the real world, DMI confirm that average Arctic sea ice extent in December was higher last month than in 2006. In reality, there has been very little change at all since 2005.
by Dr Tim Ball, January 8, 2019 in WUWT
Other stories focus on a pattern or change in a pattern again with the idea that it is new or abnormal. Headlines like this one from 2012, “Why have there been more tornadoes than usual this year?” Often, they are suggestive such as this 2017 New York Times story. “The 2017 Hurricane Season Really Is More Intense Than Normal.” When you read the story, you find, as is usually the case, that the caveats at the end indicate it is not unusual. The problem is the headline already set the pattern in the public mind.
by K. Richard, January 7, 2019 in NoTricksZone
NBC News’ Chuck Todd recently asserted that we humans can control the climate and the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events (hurricanes, floods, droughts) and disasters (wildfires) with our CO2 emissions. He has declared the science is “settled” on this point and therefore no “denier” is allowed on his Meet the Press program. But Todd and the members of his panel have recited claims that are contravened by observational evidence and scientific publications.
by Dr. D. Thresher, January 4, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The results of NASA GISS’s climate model, oft-cited as proof of global warming, are thus still questionable since the model is almost certainly full of bugs.
Pointing all this out, particularly on RealClimatologists.org, is how I became known as a climate change denier.
by K. Richard, January 3, 2019 in NoTricksZone
In 2018, over 500 scientific papers were published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.
by GWPF, December 31, 2018
January 2018: Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: Study
PARIS (AFP) – Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study released Wednesday (Jan 17) which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.
A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.
February: ‘Sinking’ Pacific nation Tuvalu is actually getting bigger, new research reveals
The Pacific nation of Tuvalu — long seen as a prime candidate to disappear as climate change forces up sea levels — is actually growing in size, new research shows.
A University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery.
It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.
March …. April… etc.
by P. Gosselin, December 28, 2018 in NoTricksZone
By Kirye in Tokyo
We constantly hear from the untrustworthy media how polar ice is melting rapidly – due to human-induced global warming.
But when we look at the real data, we understand why audiences worldwide increasing distrust the mainstream media and their constant stream of doomsday reports, which they uncritically produce.
Recently I looked at some island stations near Antarctic, a continent where we are told melting ice will lead to many meters of sea level rise if we continue emitting CO2 into the atmosphere business as usual. These stations I examined are:
– Base Arturo P
– Centro Met.An, Marsh
– Base Orcadas
– Great Wall
hese six stations in the South Shetland Islands or the South Orkney Islands (located in the Antarctic Ocean) have even seen a slight cooling trend for decades.