Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

Media Reports of +40% Adjustment in Ocean Warming Were Greatly Exaggerated

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., January 16, 2019


Summary:The recently reported upward adjustment in the 1971-2010 Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase compared to the last official estimate from the IPCC is actually 11%, not 40%. The 40% increase turns out to be relative to the average of various OHC estimates the IPCC addressed in their 2013 report, most of which were rejected. Curiously, the new estimate is almost identical to the average of 33 CMIP climate models, yet the models themselves range over a factor of 8 in their rates of ocean warming. Also curious is the warmth-enhancing nature of temperature adjustments over the years from surface thermometers, radiosondes, satellites, and now ocean heat content, with virtually all data adjustments leading to more warming rather than less.

See also here

Hump day hilarity – the progression of climate narrative names

by Anthony Watts, January 16, 2019 in WUWT


I had a predictable and laughable Twitter dialog today with the editor of the bought and paid for climate activist site known as “The Carbon Brief”. He was bent out of shape because I pointed out that while he thought the reason for the stepping down of Lord Lawson at The Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK was due to the lack of traffic and interest in the organization, it [the lowered traffic] really is because of two reasons:

  1. The public is getting bored with it, possibly due to all the fear-mongering promoted by irresponsible journalists.

  2. There’s been a shift from the use of the term “global warming” to other terms, perhaps in a desperate bid to “keep it fresh”. …

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Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.

by K. Richard, January 14, 2019 in NoTricksZone


There are large regions of the globe where observations indicate there has been no warming (even cooling) during the last decades to century. Climate models rooted in the assumption that fossil fuel emissions drive dangerous warming dismiss these modeling failures and project temperature increases of 3° – 10°C by 2100 for these same regions anyway.

Image Source: Partridge et al., 2018

Antarctic Losing Tiny Amounts Of Ice (Or Maybe It’s Gaining Ice, NASA Is Not Sure!)

by P. Homewood, January 15, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Antarctica is shedding ice at a staggering rate.

Scientists have discovered global warming has caused the melting of the ice on the continent to increase sixfold since 1979.

This phenomenal rate of melting has seen global sea levels rise by more than half an inch – and experts predict it will get worse. 

Scientists have predicted a ‘multi-meter sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries’ as a result of the vast loss of ice.

Researchers discovered that, between 1970 and 1990, the continent was shedding an average of 40 gigatons of ice mass annually.

This jumped to an average of 252 gigatons a year between 2009 and 2017.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6590841/Antarctica-losing-SIX-TIMES-ice-year-1970s.html#newcomment

 

You may of course recall that it was only three years ago that the same NASA, who are behind this latest scare story, were telling us that the ice cap was actually growing in Antarctica. But more of that in a minute.

There are several aspects to this latest story that need closer examination.

New GWPF Paper Shows Hurricanes Are Not Getting Worse

by P. Homewood, January 14, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/01/Homewood-Hurricanes.pdf

I am pleased to report that the GWPF have now published my latest paper on hurricane trends.

It demonstrates that, contrary to popular myth, hurricanes are not getting more frequent or more powerful.

The paper is based throughout on official data, scientific papers and IPCC reports.

Here is the Executive Summary:

HEAVIES SNOWFALLS IN 100 YEARS BRING CHAOS TO ALPINE SKI RESORTS

by The Times, January 12, 2019 in GWPF


Thousands of British holidaymakers face travel chaos in Austria today after the country experienced the heaviest snowfalls in a century and was bracing for another round of storms.

Three metres of snow fell in the space of 48 hours in some parts of the country and more than a metre is forecast to fall today and tomorrow. Yesterday the army was drafted in to help with the clear-up and to deliver supplies to towns and villages that were cut off.

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.The Independent, 20 March 2000

Veteran Meteorologists Warn Of “Bitter Cold” …”Areas Under The Gun” As Models Project Cold Polar Blasts!

by P. Gosselin, January 12, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Yesterday we wrote about a study that told us the data do not support that weather blockings are occurring more often than they used to. Some alarmist media and scientists have claimed that the heavy snowfalls in the Alps are happening due to manmade global warming.

Swiss meteorologist: Such snowfalls “nothing unique” for Alps

Yesterday one of Europe’s most high profile meteorologists, Jörg Kachelmann, penned an opinion piece at t-online.de reminding the public that heavy snow events in the Alps, such as the one we are now experiencing, are in fact nothing unique and that it is not a catastrophe.

In the days ahead, many parts of the Alps are expecting up to another meter of new snow, yet, according to Kachelmann, this should not pose any problems to buildings and structures – if their construction indeed adhered to the applicable building codes.

“Nothing to do with climate change”

Kachelmann adds later in his t-online piece: “1. The snowfalls are nothing unique so far for the Alps. 2. They have nothing to do with climate change.”

Does the IPCC say we have until 2030 to avoid catastrophic global warming?

by Patrick T. Brown, January 12, 2019 in WUWT


In late 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report on the impacts associated with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels (as of 2019 we are at about 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels) as well as the technical feasibility of limiting global warming to such a level. The media coverage of the report immediately produced a meme that continues to persist. The meme is some kind of variation of the following:

The IPCC concluded that we have until 2030 (or 12 years) to avoid catastrophic global warming

However, these headlines are essentially purveying a myth. I think it is necessary to push back against this meme for two main reasons:

1) It is false.

2) I believe that spreading this messaging will ultimately undermine the credibility of the IPCC and climate science more generally.

Taking these two points in turn:

1) The IPCC did not conclude that society has until 2030 to avoid catastrophic global warming.

The ‘Little Ice Age’ hundreds of years ago is STILL cooling the bottom of Pacific, researchers find

by Charles the moderator, January 9, 2019 in WUWT


  • The Little Ice Age brought colder-than-average temps around the 17th century

  • Researchers say temperatures in deep Pacific lag behind those at the surface

  • As a result, parts of the deep Pacific is now cooling from long ago Little Ice Age

A Harvard study has found that parts of the deep Pacific may be getting cooler as the result of a climate phenomenon that occurred hundreds of years ago. The models suggest In the deep temperatures are dropping at a depth of around 2 kilometers (1.2 miles)

The credibility gap between predicted and observed global warming

by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, January 10, 2019 in WUWT


The prolonged el Niño of 2016-2017, not followed by a la Niña, has put paid to the great Pause of 18 years 9 months in global warming that gave us all such entertainment while it lasted. However, as this annual review of global temperature change will show, the credibility gap between predicted and observed warming remains wide, even after some increasingly desperate and more or less openly prejudiced ever-upward revisions of recent temperatures and ever-downward depressions in the temperatures of the early 20th century in most datasets with the effect of increasing the apparent rate of global warming. For the Pause continues to exert its influence by keeping down the long-run rate of global warming.

Greenland Is Way Cool

by Willis Eschenbach, January 8, 2019


As a result of a tweet by Steve McIntyre, I was made aware of an interesting dataset. This is a look by Vinther et al. at the last ~12,000 years of temperatures on the Greenland ice cap. The dataset is available here.

Figure 1 shows the full length of the data, along with the change in summer insolation at 75°N, the general location of the ice cores used to create the temperature dataset.

Figure 1. Temperature anomalies of the Greenland ice sheet (left scale, yellow/black line), and the summer insolation in watts per square metre at 75°N (right scale, blue/black line). The red horizontal dashed line shows the average ice sheet temperature 1960-1980.

I’ll only say a few things about each of the graphs in this post. Regarding Figure 1, the insolation swing shown above is about fifty watts per square metre. Over the period in question, the temperature dropped about two and a half degrees from the peak in about 5800 BCE. That would mean the change is on the order of 0.05°C for each watt per square metre change in insolation …

Is the forecasted El Niño for this year fading away? It sure looks that way.

by Anthony Watts, January 8, 2019 in WUWT


In late 2018, there were some predictions that there would be a significant El Niño event in 2019. There were strong hints of an El Niño event in both SST data and forecasts. In an April 6th 2018 essay, Bob Tisdale suggested  “Looks like one may be forming right now.”

But if we look at the animation provided by NOAA’s Climate prediction center, it sure looks like it has been fading:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Higher Than 2006 Last Month

by P. Homewood, January 9, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Just last March, the Guardian was trying to panic us about record lows in Arctic sea ice during last winter.

Back in the real world, DMI confirm that average Arctic sea ice extent in December was higher last month than in 2006. In reality, there has been very little change at all since 2005.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/txt/IceVol.txt

 

U.S. Carbon Emissions Skyrocketed in 2018!

by David Middleton, January 8, 2009 in WUWT


Why did carbon emissions increase in 2018?

  • A booming economy.  GDP growth during the first 2 years of the Trump administration has been about 50% higher than that of Obama’s eight-year maladministration.

  • Our manufacturing sector is booming.

  • A cold winter.

  • A booming economy drove up trucking and air travel.

  • Electricity demand increased and most of the increasing was powered by natural gas because renewables couldn’t even keep up with no growth.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/economy-firing-cylinders/